Dan Patrick on the latest Big 10 plan from his source
Dan Patrick, who was the first to report that Big Ten chancellors and presidents were voting to cancel fall football season, weighed in today with the latest on the conference’s plans:
It's a long shot. The video is in the link below.
August 31st, 2020 at 2:46 PM ^
If by definition leads to maybe.
August 31st, 2020 at 4:17 PM ^
They could meet their goal of 50 million by a factor of 10 and that would still be 5 million rapid teats. Given the advancements we are seeing, I don’t think it is overly optimistic to say that we will almost certainly have greater availability of rapid testing in November than we do today.
August 31st, 2020 at 4:36 PM ^
Still an if and still has nothing to do with player safety or why the Big Ten supposedly cancelled in the first place.
August 31st, 2020 at 5:45 PM ^
I keep reading that we don’t know why the big ten canceled in the first place. Do you know that concerns about societal resources like testing never factored into the equation?
August 31st, 2020 at 5:57 PM ^
No but I do know that this is the first that I've heard of it which leads me to believe it's more a revised history sort of thing.
August 31st, 2020 at 6:22 PM ^
Would you agree that the availability of rapid testing has been a key component of a strategy to play sports for many months? If so, why is it so hard to believe that availability of those very tests was not part of the consideration?
August 31st, 2020 at 6:49 PM ^
Because athletes are already getting their results back rapidly.
August 31st, 2020 at 9:18 PM ^
Yes, but the consideration you seemed to find so incredulous was the larger societal considerations. Playing requires significantly more rapid tests than practicing.
August 31st, 2020 at 4:44 PM ^
I'll also add, it's interesting to me that you're willing to assume the best case scenario for why it will be fine to play in November/January, but the worst case scenario for why playing in September is impossible.
August 31st, 2020 at 5:59 PM ^
I’d be very interested in hearing more about this best and worst case scenario that I’m assuming. The only assumption I believe I’ve mentioned is the belief that there is likely to be greater availability of rapid testing in November than there is today. I’m pretty confident in that assumption.
August 31st, 2020 at 6:06 PM ^
You're right, that wasn't a fair comment, my apologies.
August 31st, 2020 at 9:20 PM ^
I’ll believe your apology when you actually respond to the points I’m making rather than repeating the same thing over and over again.
September 1st, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
I have. You don't want to hear it because you might have to consider a shade of grey rather than the simple black and white world you want to live in.
August 31st, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^
It's astounding how we're 6 months into this and people still don't understand how the virus spreads.
The travel and interacting with people from other schools is literally the entire risk. Right now Michigan is able to keep things relatively controlled by practicing in their bubble. All of that goes out the door when you start playing games.
August 31st, 2020 at 3:09 PM ^
Yeah and we have examples to illustrate the point. The big ten has given all the teams the same protocols, yet Michigan has had no cases and both Rutgers and MSU have had to halt practice. So yes it is the fact that playing games involves multiple teams.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:02 AM ^
I’ll take what I can get. November, January, whatever.
August 31st, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
Yeah gotta start Oct./Nov. to make any sense and participate in the playoffs and bowl games
August 31st, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
Don’t care about playoffs. Only 4 teams make it anyway, and those teams consist of any of Alabama, Clemson, OSU, Oklahoma, Georgia. Since the playoffs, bowl games are meaningless exhibitions. I’ll be psyched to play for the conference championship. In this weird year, that would be awesome.
August 31st, 2020 at 1:09 PM ^
This. I get this is all far from optimal, but are people really going to follow through with not watching in January should it come to pass? They can play in pro stadiums or parking lots for all I care, or if we are seeing more second- or third-string players on the field. If we can have anything that comes close to resembling a season, I’ll be happy at this point.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^
All the rumors makes it seem like the Big Ten is actively brainstorming still and someone keeps leaking ideas to the press every week. The ideas are constantly changing and it's probably because the Big Ten still has zero set plans. No one knows what the right answers are right now
I'll be very interested to see what happens with SEC and ACC. Maybe moreso the ACC as they span all the way from the conservative north to the eff it let's play south. Have they even sorted out what they're doing yet?
August 31st, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^
Yeah, the ACC should be popcorn worthy. That's an entertaining mix of far left to far right administrations all trying to get on one page.
Big 12 and SEC are gonna play, no worries there. They may postpone a game or 12, but they will play.
ACC could cancel the whole season on a whim, or play through a hurricane with fans, figuring the wind and rain would make it very unlikely to spread the Covid in the stands.
August 31st, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
I could see it turning into a political stink in a hurry. I don't think Cuomo is going to be cool with allowing 150+ person football organizations from the south into Syracuse where they're going to be fighting just to keep cases down enough to keep classes in session. I assume Massachusetts will feel similarly.
August 31st, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
Agreed. The ACC will be a shit show. I'd imagine BC and Cuse will have to play road games and Qtine for 2 weeks after each game.
August 31st, 2020 at 3:06 PM ^
which seems kind of absurd right? If you quarantine 2 weeks after each game, Cuse and BC basically have to be in a bubble all fall. This article doesn't give me high hopes they're going to be successful. Gonna be a tough task to get a whole team to travel, stay in a hotel, be in the stadium, play a game, and travel back and not have an outbreak at some point. Maybe they pull it off, but I wouldn't bet on it
August 31st, 2020 at 1:49 PM ^
I'm sure Cuomo would be fine with it, especially if they played at a nursing home.
August 31st, 2020 at 2:52 PM ^
To his credit, Cuomo that is, at least he has tacitly acknowledged the error, by rescinding the order. Unlike certain Governors.
I get that the egos of people like him, any Governor of any party, will never allow them to admit error. So reversing course is the best you are going to get.
August 31st, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
Well, aside from the nursing home fiasco I think Cuomo has led NY through this pretty well, but I think his administration also realized a white paper trying to wipe their hands of the nursing home thing which was roundly criticized by most everyone. After from the very rough start, the state has recovered well and kept things reasonably flat
August 31st, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^
I think it's obvious by now that a certain percentage of people are going to get it, and that % number is determined mostly by population density. New York got hit hard (pay no attention to cases in the early states, they couldn't test) just as Massachusetts, Florida, Texas and California with their big cities have. You can affect the severity of the curve (flatten it if you will) by masking, social distancing and such, but no matter what you do, there is just a % that gets it, then the curve starts falling off in a long, long, long tail. I think that tail will go on for years (purely my opinion).
You can also hide your elderly away, as they have a freaking 15% mortality rate.
So, they've (New York) kept things reasonably flat simply because they have already hit that number that flattened the curve out. No magic needed by Cuomo, or any other Governor with a R or D after their name in any of these states or cities.
August 31st, 2020 at 9:37 PM ^
While population density is clearly a big factor, it is not the only one. 5 of the 6 worst states in the US by Covid deaths per million are also in the top seven in terms of population density (NJ,NY,MA,CT and RI). However, 3 of the top ten are not even in the top 20 in terms of population density (LA,AZ and MS). For all the grief it gets, CA is 27th in deaths per capita but is 11th in population density. Similarly Florida is 8th in population density and 17th in deaths per capita.
August 31st, 2020 at 10:14 PM ^
AZ may not have be dense per se, but density per arable land is high. CA has both a high density per arable land and high cases so I'd say that is a case where they've done a good job, like Florida, of keeping the most vulnerable locked up, and deaths low, considering their demographics.
You are using deaths here, and we have to use cases and deaths both due to the unreliability of cases. LA and MS are poor, so I'd guess nursing home care and elder care in general is bottom of the barrel. That's what Medicare pays for, and that's what rural America gets. Only thing that comes to mind. It's just a guess honestly, but two outliers from a different statistical set don't disprove the theory.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^
I'm always doubtful of sources that add their own commentary to their information.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^
Seems like the B1G could play the wait and see game with the SEC/ACC/Big 12 even if they started mid-October. At least then they could reasonably play as many as 10 games instead of 8. And the chances that the better players would opt in vs out is greater than waiting until later to start.
August 31st, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
What you're saying is that there could be yet another B1G plan to start the season. Thus far, there have been four plans: original 2020 season, then amended conference only games then the January start and now this trial balloon of Thanksgiving weekend.
I wouldn't be surprised if a fifth plan emerges, consistent with your thinking: wait and see how these other conferences do and devise a plan to start B1G in mid October. We haven't heard the end of this self imposed chaos in the B1G conference leadership.
August 31st, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^
I believe that I know as much about when Michigan will play a real football game, as does anyone else.... Including the coaches, players and B1G
August 31st, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^
I see Mentor defeated Medina 37-19
August 31st, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^
Now the Battling Bees have to take on rival (and my local team) Blue Devils Friday at 7pm
I would go if I didn’t have to drive to Cincinnati Friday to visit my mother in law
August 31st, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
I was a Blue Devil back in middle school in the early 2000's before moving back to Michigan. You a graduate? I still have some friends that I keep in touch with in the area.
August 31st, 2020 at 8:59 PM ^
No. Ypsilanti Brave here. Just moved to the Cleveland area for a new job back in February
August 31st, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^
It would be nice to hear something, anything from Commissioner Warren. I understand that he didn’t make the call but he’s definitely in charge of communicating the message.
Back on 8/18 he said the issue wouldn’t be revisited. So is it or isn’t it? Maybe I missed an interview or something but what the hell is going on?
August 31st, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
It would be nice to hear something, anything from Commissioner Warren. I understand that he didn’t make the call but he’s definitely in charge of communicating the message.
What would you like to hear? What's true is this: It's not safe to play right now. For players, coaches, and everyone with whom they come in contact. The future is highly unknowable right now. There is no way anything more than the broad side of a barn can be aimed at. So any sort of plan with detail would be accompanied by "...if all these things that cannot be predicted go exactly as well as possible."
We don't know. We aren't going to know for at least several more months. We missed the off-ramp from this highway of shit back in March/April thanks to dipshittery led by the top turd. Now we all suffer.
August 31st, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^
I mean, I think I was pretty clear. I’d like to hear something, anything from the commissioner. The 8/18 press release said the issue wouldn’t be revisited, so is it being revisited or not?
I’ll refrain from taking the bait on any of the other angry political rhetoric you’re throwing out there.
August 31st, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^
hey, hey, hey! look who has points. positive points, 500 of them. that's a comeback of, like 10 million points. has to be a record. (could use those when we play ohio...)
kudos to the mods. you're back in the saddle again.
August 31st, 2020 at 1:49 PM ^
I think it is due to you asking for it in the other thread. I told Cue in the mod sticky that I would up vote all of his posts trying to get him to a positive number, but that I'd be long dead before I could get him there.
August 31st, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
Oh, wow! Thanks XM and RGard! Also to whomever made the change. You are very kind. And XM, I was unaware that you went to bat for me so hat tip to you, good sir. I saw the up/down buttons available today and just thought it was one of those website quirks. ?♂️
I guess I’ll have to figure out how to have my mail forwarded back from Bolivia.
August 31st, 2020 at 2:26 PM ^
i didn't do anything, it was robf and probably seth. all credit to them.
and isn't it funny how a silly thing like getting 10 million mgopoints can put a smile on your face.
August 31st, 2020 at 10:26 PM ^
What did you do to take the long train ride to Bolivia?
August 31st, 2020 at 1:11 PM ^
This is so wrong. The CDC announced last week that only 6% of the total deaths were solely caused by the virus. 94% of the deaths were people that had the virus along with substantial underlying health conditions. This means the future is most definitely highly knowable. We know the virus is highly contagious and will spread. We know the virus has substantial effects on the elderly and those with existing conditions. We know that an overwhelming majority of young people are either asymptomatic or only mildly affected. We know that young, healthy, and fit people are virtually unaffected.
The fact is that the Big 10 made a hasty decision when they didn’t need to and they’re starting to realize what they did and the ramifications it will have. Now they’re grasping at straws trying to change course without admitted they screwed this up from the beginning.
Personally, I have no sympathy for the Presidents and Warren at this point. It was a knee jerk, fear based decision that was made 45-60 days before it needed to be made and they had the arrogance to think people would just accept it with no questions or any additional communication. These are the type of decisions that people lose jobs for and other people lose livelihoods over and to be so unprepared and short sighted for a decision of this magnitude is frankly unbelievable and unacceptable. I said in one of the initial threads after the cancellation that this has a chance to be the worst decision in the history of the B1G. I’m getting closer to amending to this has a chance to be the worst decision in sports history.
August 31st, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^
And if you actually read the article and looked at the data from the CDC, and not just the tweet from QAnon, you would know that what it was saying is:
Of the 94% of people who had another condition listed on their death certificate, many of them had conditions caused by COVID-19, like ADRS, pneumonia, respiratory failure, organ failure, etc. These aren't necessarily pre-existing conditions (though some like diabetes and obesity are pre-existing). In many cases, they're the symptoms of the disease.
You don't just die of the coronavirus, just like you don't die of HIV. The disease causes pneumonia and kidney failure and cardiac problems and pulmonary embolii... and those get put in the CDC data.
August 31st, 2020 at 2:11 PM ^
I don’t know what QAnon is. I’m literally just reading the information on the CDC’s website which states,
“For 6% of the deaths, Covid-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to Covid-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”
August 31st, 2020 at 2:31 PM ^
The highly politicized current CDC added that as fodder for deniers. Here's a quick lesson in cause of death determinations on death certificates from a paper written by Sarah Meyers, MD:
"When sequences of injuries or events occur, the cause of death portion of the death certificate may be further subclassified into immediate (the last injury or disease process in the sequence or the event immediately before death), intermediate, and underlying cause of death (the injury or disease that set off the sequence of events that resulted in death, also known as the proximate cause of death).1–4 These terms are connected via “due to” statements on a death certificate. For example, if an individual sustains a myocardial infarct, from arteriosclerotic heart disease, which subsequently ruptures causing cardiac tamponade from hemopericardium, the cause of death would be listed as such:
-
Immediate cause of death: Hemopericardium with cardiac tamponade
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Due to: (intermediate cause of death): Ruptured myocardial infarct
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Due to (underlying cause of death/proximate cause of death): Arteriosclerotic heart disease"
It is pretty rare that a single cause of death is listed on a death certificate, for any illness or cause. Even things like gunshot wounds and drownings are rarely immediate causes of death, it's that they usually cause things like organ damage, internal bleeding, etc. They do this to be more descriptive of the actual death story.
Same thing for Covid-19. It might cause a heart attack or acute respiratory distress syndrome or something else that is the final blow.
But the deaths were caused by covid-19. These deaths are easily measured as excess deaths as well. And we're likely undercounting them.