Vegas Odds - Mich/ILL & PSU/IOWA
Michigan (-21.5) vs Illinois. Line started at Michigan (-20.5).
PSU (-4.5) at Iowa. Line started at PSU (-3).
I thought Michigan would be favored by about 17.
Anyone else think that PSU line started way too low?
I was thinking PSU would be favored by 10 (at least by 7).
Also - is it weird that Penn State is getting back-to-back ABC night games - especially when that Florida/LSU game is on ESPN at the same time this week?
October 7th, 2019 at 10:40 PM ^
seems like we will be on back to back night games(PSU,ND)
I think the PSU spread is right. Iowa at home, should be a close one
I don't think we'll cover the spread this week
October 7th, 2019 at 10:56 PM ^
OSU just had back to back ABC prime time games (Nebraska and MSU).
October 7th, 2019 at 11:30 PM ^
Yeah, I think I'd take Iowa at +4.5. It's at Kinnick and I've not seen enough from PSU to be all that impressed. They beat Pitt at home 17-10 and haven't played anyone else.
Line seems about right for Michigan. If there's anything Shea and Harbaugh do really well, it's blow out vastly inferior teams.
October 8th, 2019 at 4:58 AM ^
No Brandon Peters. This will look like Rutgers.
October 8th, 2019 at 7:08 AM ^
Is that a picture of Mount Hood?
October 7th, 2019 at 10:41 PM ^
I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa pulled the upset at home.
October 7th, 2019 at 10:47 PM ^
Agree. PSU looked pedestrian against their one opponent with a pulse.
October 8th, 2019 at 1:59 AM ^
They're also a young team going to one of the more intimidating stadiums in CFB. It's not too hard to see them underperform.
October 8th, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
Agreed. If I were still a gambling man, I'd take Iowa straight up in that game. I'm really surprised that the line has actually increased for PSU.
October 8th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
I think this is one of our only hopes to win in Happy Valley. Franklin's team have a track record of huge let downs after losing a big game (two years in a row now they've had 1 point losses to OSU in very close games they could've won and then followed it up immediately with sloppy losses to MSU teams worse than them).
October 8th, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^
Only hopes to win? Harbaugh has won there before, and has owned PSU other than the 2017 debacle.
I understand the reason for skepticism about this season, but the extent to which people around here suddenly think we'll never be good again is unreal.
October 7th, 2019 at 10:46 PM ^
M’s D has given up 1.5ppg over the past two games. Illinois might crack double-digits.
38-9 good guys.
October 8th, 2019 at 12:34 AM ^
My prediciton is O/U will be set in the mid-40's for Michigan Illinois. I don't think Illinois scores more than 7 points against our D. And we will probably score low to mid-30's. Take the under and Michigan to cover.
October 8th, 2019 at 8:46 AM ^
Getting ahead of myself a little bit.....I was wondering what the O/U will be for the MSU vs UM game in November. Two good defenses, two crappy offenses. My guess is that O/U would be in the mid 40's but I could easily see that being a 7-3 game.
Nice Avatar.
October 7th, 2019 at 11:06 PM ^
I would be shocked if PSU doesn’t win by at least 14.
October 7th, 2019 at 11:09 PM ^
Night game at Kinnick. I'll be shocked if PSU wins by more than 7, if at all.
October 7th, 2019 at 11:32 PM ^
Do you want to bet on that? I'll take just 10 on Iowa. We can venmo the winnings.
October 8th, 2019 at 8:39 AM ^
Penn State played under the lights at Kinnick in 2017 and was favored by 12.5 but needed a TD on the very last play of the game to win 21-19. I wouldn't discount the Kinnick magic. Remember what happened when we went out there in 2016? It's where seasons go to die.
October 7th, 2019 at 11:12 PM ^
Anyone else think that PSU line started way too low?
nope
October 7th, 2019 at 11:22 PM ^
By this math we will be ten point dogs in two weeks. Take away home field, vegas thinks we’re 1 point better than iowa and PSU is 7 points better. Add three points for penn state home field. However that doesn’t take into account that iowa looks worse after last week than they did before so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
October 7th, 2019 at 11:35 PM ^
I would think if it happened today PSU would be -7.5 against us (the Iowa line is a week outdated).
October 7th, 2019 at 11:27 PM ^
I think psu is a lot better than Michigan. Right now but they also have not played anyone yet
October 7th, 2019 at 11:31 PM ^
I like Iowa vs PSU.
October 7th, 2019 at 11:39 PM ^
Kinnick Iowa is -14 over road Iowa.
October 8th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
Except for the Iowa vs. Wisconsin series somehow. Badgers have won 5 (!) in a row in Kinnick. Iowa has won in Madison twice since they last won at home.
October 7th, 2019 at 11:54 PM ^
Home dog iowa the pick.
October 8th, 2019 at 12:03 AM ^
Florida/LSU should be the game of the week
October 8th, 2019 at 12:13 AM ^
Can Iowa score enough points to win? I figure PSU will get to 20 points, one way or another.
But that Iowa offense is ------- probably going to have to grind to get 20 of their own. PSU's defense is young and some players are obviously still learning, but they are fast and the raw talent is apparent.
The 2017 game was Penn State 21 Iowa 19. Wadley busted some big plays to get Iowa their 2 TDs.
Maybe I'm biased, but I would have advised betting PSU at 3. If it gets to 5 or 6 though - eh. That's a no play.
October 8th, 2019 at 12:33 AM ^
Night game Kinnick. I still can't make the bad thoughts go away.
Pitt was competitive with PSU in Happy Valley. PSU has played nobody else (Idaho, Buffalo, @Maryland, Purdue). Yes, Pitt is a rivalry game, but Iowa's going to be champing at the bit to get back out there -- they've got to feel that they let an opportunity to win slip away in Ann Arbor last weekend.
I like Iowa straight up. I see an early money line of about +165, which feels solid to me. (Michigan's is around -2000; no thanks. :)
October 8th, 2019 at 12:55 AM ^
If I were to boil my thoughts down to 1 heuristic - it would be this. If Iowa scores 20+, they win. If they don't, they lose.
I never really understand folk who take underdogs ATS when they are 1-6 point dogs. At that point, get greater reward on the money line. So if you like Iowa at +4.5, definitely take them S/U up at +165.
October 8th, 2019 at 8:49 AM ^
Can't agree. So many games are decided by 3 points or so, it's a big difference not to have to live or die on your bet depending upon how that last second FG attempt goes.
October 8th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
Iowa +5 pays -115. Iowa S/U +165. Yeah, it's probably good money management to take Iowa S/U.
October 8th, 2019 at 8:46 AM ^
Interestingly enough, Maryland is 36th in SP+ while Pitt is 57th in SP+.
October 8th, 2019 at 12:29 AM ^
Man, I'm sort of licking my chops at Iowa +4.5. Dreams go to die at Kinnick at night. Home Nate Stanley >> away Nate Stanley. And from what I've heard, Iowa's D is pretty good. We still should've scored at least 20 points on them.
October 8th, 2019 at 4:03 AM ^
In the corn field at night, line make sense
October 8th, 2019 at 6:03 AM ^
The spread is too high in the Michigan game. O/U will be 14.5.
October 8th, 2019 at 8:39 AM ^
The Iowa game is going to be fun to watch. I hope its a defensive battle. Go Iowa! The Illinois game will bring needed experience for the offense. An away game just before the biggest away game left on the schedule is a good chance to take in the crowd noise and a little warm up for PSU. Lets see how much of the Defensive scheme coach Brown uses from last week. And perhaps some playing time from back up QBs would be good.
October 8th, 2019 at 9:24 AM ^
Michigan spread looks right; I think Iowa wins straight up
October 8th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
Penn state needs to beat a team with any kind of a pulse before they can be claimed good.
They are still one of the worst teams in the country on third down
October 8th, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
I disagree with this assessment. PSU and PITT is a rivalry game much like MSU & UM, or OSU & UM... doesn't matter how the opposing team is doing in recruiting or previous play in that season, rivalry games are wild cards. That was a good test for PSU, MD and P were not high quality teams but I think PSU proved they can put points on the board.
October 8th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
Why would he take your line when he could just take the Vegas one instead if he really wanted to bet? I never understand posts like these.
October 8th, 2019 at 4:43 PM ^
I agree with you PSU by 10pts. I don't think Iowa is as good as they sounded before they got to us. I do think PSU is the real deal and will beat them soundly in their own house.
Actually I think the line on UM vs Ill is low, I'd say more like 21 knowing that they have a horribly D. If we can put 50+ on Rutgers I'd expect similar for Ill, and our defense has improved slightly so yeah, that's where I'm at.
October 9th, 2019 at 4:15 PM ^
SEC has a contract with CBS, which means they can't play on ABC. Even though it's on ESPN, it will have Fowler/Herby, so PSU/Iowa is the secondary night game this week