Upon Further Review: Offense vs Michigan State
Personnel notes: I don't think I saw Webb or Savoy all game. The offensive line was the same as the Indiana game but at some point in the second half Huyge got pulled for Ferrara, at least briefly.
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O14 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone read stretch | Brown | -2 | |
Okay, so 1) State's response to the bubble is the same as Indiana's: have the safety freak out about it as soon as he sees the route. With MSU in press coverage that really invites Michigan to go over the top; they never really do. 2) On the run here State's defensive tackles slant inside, coming around the attempted stretch blocks way too quickly for Michigan to handle and getting right into the backfield. This play is specifically designed to combat stretch blocking, but State doesn't run it again. | ||||||||||||
O16 | 2 | 12 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Sack | Koger | -3 | |
Basically the zone read fake into the Koger flat route; State is prepared for this, too, with the DE shooting right past Koger without waiting and forcing Forcier upfield, where he gets sacked. (PR, 0, protection N/A) | ||||||||||||
O19 | 3 | 15 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Wheel | Brown | Inc | |
Michigan State blitzes and has an umbrella behind it, getting a guy in unblocked. Forcier's hot read is Brown coming out of the backfield; he doesn't look for the ball and it falls incomplete. (CA, 3, protection 0/2, team -2) | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: FG(36), 3-0, 12 min 1st Q. Very disappointing; clearly Dantonio has gameplans for the exact things Michigan has shown so far and Michigan just plays into them. Same stuff happened last year. Just gap block some stuff and bring out new plays against Michigan State; they obviously spent Wisconsin week preparing for M. They weren't preparing for Wisconsin. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M28 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone read inside | Brown | 2 | |
Backside DT shoots upfield immediately on the snap, driving Schilling back and forcing Brown to cut it upfield, where a crashing defensive end tackles him for a minimal gain. Safety had the bubble, WLB the contain. | ||||||||||||
M30 | 2 | 8 | Shotgun empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Bubble screen | Brown | 3 | |
Michigan empties the backfield and tries to use this to run a bubble to the short side of the field. Brown picks up like three yards; he's got no room since it's the short side of the field. (CA, 3, screen) | ||||||||||||
M33 | 3 | 5 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Throwaway | -- | Inc | |
Anderson comes crashing around the end but there's a very nice pocket for Forcier to step up into and throw; instead he peels out to the sideline, finding no one and throwing the ball away. These looked like deep routes, maybe four verticals; the unnecessary scramble likely killed the play. (TA, 0, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-7, 1 min 1st Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M8 | 1 | 10 | Ace | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Waggle Post | Koger | Inc | |
Zone fake into a rollout with some decent pressure but Forcier's able to get a pass off to Koger. Koger's got a step and throw that's a little bit upfield or arced a little more might be complete but the coverage is very good and the safety makes a play on the ball. Good all around. (CA, 1, protection 1/1) | ||||||||||||
M8 | 2 | 10 | I-Form 3-wide | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4-3 Under | Pass | Rollout out | Grady | Inc | |
Plenty of room as Michigan is attacking the fact that safeties are in man against Michigan's slot receivers. Grady(19) is wide open for a first down, hit in the hands, and... drop. Bler. (CA, 3, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
M8 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Improv bomb | Koger | 41 | |
Really weird D from State as the three DL rush and then three(!) linebackers just kind of hang out at the LOS. Very odd. I know you want to contain Forcier but jeez. Grady pops a DE—he's in pass protect because the waiting LBs have drawn a couple of OL. DE then gets outside, avoiding a Minor block and causing Forcier to flush. Forcier chucks it up and Koger adjusts to his back shoulder, dragging in a big gainer. (DO?, 1, protection 2/3, Minor -1) | ||||||||||||
M49 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2TE 3-wide | 0 | 2 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | QB off tackle | Robinson | 0 | |
Robinson in; Forcier spread wide. I think this is supposed to and should go outside the tackle as the TE comes off to seal the SLB and it would be Robinson and a safety one-on-one but he cuts it up into no room. Jones got playside of the backside guard and there's not much in the way of creases. | ||||||||||||
M49 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Slant | Koger | Inc | |
Playing off the bubble over-reaction, this is wide open and will go for near first-down yardage; Koger drops it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) | ||||||||||||
M49 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Scramble | Forcier | 10 | |
State sends five and drops a couple guys off into zones; field is pretty open. Forcier(+1) sees it open up and decisively decides to step up in the pocket and take off, picking up the first down, albeit barely. So decisive that I thought this was a QB draw at first; it's not. Not charting this as a TA, FWIW. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 1 | 10 | Ace Twins | 1 | 2 | 2 | Base 4-3 | Run | Inside Zone | Brown | 1 | |
Backside scoop goes all wrong as Huyge(-1) doesn't get much push and actually falls a bit, leaving Dorrestein no angle to block his guy and letting said guy playside and into the backfield. Brown's reaction is to cut back into an unblocked linebacker/DB; these are true eight-man fronts they're running against. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 2 | 9 | Shotgun Diamond | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Improv Hitch | Stonum | 7 | |
Fake bubble with the trio of guys going into pass routes; that's Forcier's first read. Not there, and then an MSU stunt sees Dorrestein(-1) whiff outside, then take a diving whiff inside. First whiff causes Forcier to start scrambling out; should just step up and fire or something. He eventually finds Stonum on the backside of the formation for a decent gain. (CA, 3, protection 1/2, Dorrestein -1) | ||||||||||||
O33 | 3 | 2 | Shotgun empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Hitch | Odoms | 4 | |
Quick tempo sees State align in a two-deep shell, which leaves one guy trying to cover two on one side of the formation. Forcier reads it and throws a quick hitch to Odoms for the first down. It's low and unnecessarily difficult for Odoms; he digs it out. (MA, ,2, protection 1/1) | ||||||||||||
O29 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Sack | -- | 0 | |
PA fake into what looks like the same bubble fake to slant we saw earlier; backside defensive end sits there and then shoots up as Forcier hesitates. DE's on him and he has to cut it up, attempting to lose as little as possible. (PR, NA, NA) | ||||||||||||
O29 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Rollout out | Odoms | 11 | |
So here's one advantage of the backside DE trying to contain the zone counter dive: he delays instead of trying to get out on Forcier, allowing Minor to chop him easily. This is the same play as the earlier Grady drop: slot out can't be covered by a safety, hit between the numbers. This time it's caught. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) | ||||||||||||
O18 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Minor Yakety | Minor | -4 | |
Not really sure what the intent is here since Brown and Minor collide soon after Minor grabs a handoff; he ends up tackled in the backfield because of the delay. | ||||||||||||
O22 | 2 | 14 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Penalty | Offsides | -- | 5 | |
Oops. | ||||||||||||
O17 | 2 | 9 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Draw | Brown | 6 | |
Wow, this opens up cavernously as Moosman kicks one of the DTs out the intended hole and the other one rushes himself out o the play. Huyge(-1) pulls around and is one-on-one with Jones; Jones ninjitsus him and makes a tackle on Brown a few yards downfield. Pile falls forward; a Jones block is probably first and goal. Brown could get some blame for not setting this block up, too. | ||||||||||||
O11 | 3 | 3 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Sack | -- | -10 | |
Forcier fumbles a poor snap on an intended rollout, which allows a blitzing linebacker to close and tackle. On Moosman. (PR, NA, pressure 0/2, team -1, Moosman -1) Odoms was open for the first if this snap was efficiently delivered. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: FG(42), 6-7, 4 min 2nd Q. Aigh Molk donde esta? | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M20 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | PA Sack | -- | -7 | |
Hard to tell if this is supposed to set up in the pocket or get outside; I think outside because they're pulling Schilling around to give some backside pass blocking on Anderson. Huyge(-2) gets pushed back, delaying Schilling, and then gets spun off of; when Forcier cuts back inside because Anderson is outside of Schilling the DT is there to sack. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Huyge -2). Note Huyge is at RG and Dorrestein RT. | ||||||||||||
M13 | 2 | 17 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read stretch | Brown | -1 | |
Ortmann and Schilling actually get a crease here but Koger(-1), who's set up as the H-back but dives inside of Ortmann, runs right by Gordon, which means he's sitting in the hole unblocked and tackles. | ||||||||||||
M12 | 3 | 18 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Fly | Mathews | Inc | |
Max protect and three fly routes into lots of coverage. State is again doing that weird thing where they just leave three linebackers sitting a couple yards downfield; if Michigan was running a post or something here maybe they get an opportunity to make a first down. Instead its all covered fly routes and Forcier just chucks one well upfield of a covered Mathews. (IN, 0, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 6-10, 13 min 3rd Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M7 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read stretch | Brown | 7 | |
Argh. State's blitzing both linebackers right up the middle and Michigan runs by it, doubling the playside DT because there's no one to block on the second level anyway. Schilling(+1) does get a good crease for Brown. Brown is into the secondary and has a lead blocker in Minor; Minor(-1) is one-on-one with the filling safety with a block likely to spring Brown for 93... he whiffs. | ||||||||||||
M14 | 2 | 3 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read stretch | Brown | 2 | |
Same play. State's playside DT does a better job of flowing down the line and prevents himself from getting creased. Worthy avoids a lame Dorrestein(-1) attempt at a cut, flows down the line, and tackles on the cutback. A block from Dorrestein also gets Brown a lot of yards here. | ||||||||||||
M16 | 3 | 1 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | QB off tackle | Forcier | 1 | |
On Huyge(-1) and Moosman, who get no push on Worthy and make no crease here. This is not really State being prepared for this play or doing something special, it's just the OL being inadequate. Forcier cuts it up, hitting the back of Huyge and going down like an inch short of the first down. | ||||||||||||
M17 | 4 | In | Punt | - | - | - | - | Run | BLERG | Zoltan | BLERG | |
BLLERG. Note: a reader suggested this was not really Mesko's fault because state guys got in too fast and would have blocked a rugby punt. On review: no way. Mesko had plenty of time to get a punt off but brought it down immediately to run. Just an unbelievable brain explosion. The protection was sliding, so it was a called rugby punt a la the Notre Dame fake from a year ago; Mesko's head blew up. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs, 6-10, 7 min 3rd Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M11 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Flare screen | Brown | 5 | |
I don't know, I always think the timing on this is messed up but it works sometimes. Odoms(+1) cuts the nickelback to the ground and Schilling gets Jones, but a quick-filling safety is up on Brown before he can get much in the way of yardage. (CA, 3 , screen) | ||||||||||||
M16 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Rollout out | Odoms | 9 | |
A freeze play where M catches State offsides; Forcier rolls out and finds Odoms on an out as he reaches the sideline. (CA, 2, protection N/A) | ||||||||||||
M25 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone read stretch | Minor | 2 | |
State shifted away from this and Michigan should have a good opportunity to pick up some yards here but Minor(-1) misses a massive cutback opportunity as Ortmann had cut the backside DT to pieces and the frontside has been slanted to and jammed; Brown runs by a couple of guys outside of their blockers and lets Anderson and Gordon track Minor down as he passes the LOS. | ||||||||||||
M27 | 2 | 8 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Sack | -- | -3 | |
Ferrara(-3) straight up smoked by an MSU DT, yielding quick pressure up the middle and a sack. (PR, 0, protection 0/3, Ferrara -3) Also note that it's Huyge who's gotten pulled, with Dorrestein still at tackle. | ||||||||||||
M30 | 3 | 11 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Improv | Stonum | 10 | |
Dorrestein(-2) smoked by Anderson, forcing Forcier out of the pocket. He manages to find Stonum on the move and zing one to him despite tight coverage; it's low and Stonum digs it out (DO, 1, protection 0/2, Dorrestein -2) | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 6-13, 3 min 3rd Q. Yes, the Molk injury single-handedly killed this drive. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M33 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Reverse | Odoms | -4 | |
Robinson in. This is on Odoms(-1), who fails to recognize that he can cut it upfield into a lot of space and be one-on-one with a safety for the house until way too late; he then slips to the turf trying to make that cut way too late. | ||||||||||||
M29 | 2 | 14 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Rollout scramble | -- | 2 | |
Robinson rolls out, finds no one, and starts running around as the rollout has run out of time. He eventually gets to the line of scrimmage-ish. (TA, 0, protection 1/1) | ||||||||||||
M31 | 3 | 12 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Sack | -- | -12 | |
Somewhat decent time but not great time as Dorrestein(-1) and Minor(-1) eventually lose guys at the same time; Robinson can scramble away from one but only into the other. (TA, 0, protection 2/4, Minor -1, Dorrestein -1) | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 6-20, 13 min 4th Q. Forcier should have come back after the first down loss. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
O46 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Improv cross | Hemingway | 9 + 15 | |
Forcier scrambles up as the MSU DEs come screaming around the corner; this may actually be intended to flush Forcier outside like this because MSU has a spy who takes off after him as he breaks the pocket. Hemingway has run a little crossing route and the screamin' linebacker has vacated that area, so Forcier hits him; Hemingway can turn up for some YAC. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, but tentative) State gets a roughing call afterwards. It's pretty terrible, as Hemingway wasn't down and I didn't hear a whistle. | ||||||||||||
O22 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Rollout hitch | Stonum | 11 | |
Forcier rolls out with the aid of an excellent block from Minor on the corner, finding Stonum open along the sideline for about seven. Stonum jukes the first guy, picks up a first down, and fumbles the ball as he's going to ground. Argh. (CA, 3, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Fumble, 10 min 4th Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M31 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Post | Roundtree | Inc | |
Roundtree? Ok, I guess. Good pocket this time allows Forcier to step up and fire just as Roundtree's break to the inside gets him clear of his man. Could be a big gainer but it's just in front of him. (IN, 0, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
M31 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | RB Hitch? | Minor | Inc | |
Er? This is basically a wheel route from Minor except he stops on it two yards downfield. Hitch, I guess. Another good pocket and the coverage gets run off, leaving Minor wide open. Forcier goes to him... just as he falls down for no reason. Ack. (CA, um... 1, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
M31 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Improv | Roundtree | Inc | |
Forcier can't find anyone; sort of looks like he's got a slant or two here but he doesn't throw it, allowing pressure to eventually break through, at least sort of. He starts running around, possibly without needing to, and eventually pulls up to hit Roundtree a couple yards short of the first. It's on the money but late, so Roundtree gets pounded as the ball arrives and drops it. (CA, 2, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt, 6-20, 8 min 4th Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M32 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Improv Hitch | Hemingway | 9 | |
A vast panoply of time sees Forcier sit and survey forever, finding no one. Pressure finally comes and he has to scramble out. As he reaches the sideline he chucks it at Hemingway and not incidentally a Michigan State safety, who has this covered and could possibly intercept but doesn't as Hemingway yanks it away for nine yards. Brilliant? Idiotic? I don't know. I'm filing this a BR. (BR, 2, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
M41 | 2 | 1 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | TE Seam | Koger | Inc | |
Zone read fake to the bubble fake to the TE slant Michigan's run a lot. State has a guy sitting on it in a zone; a slant is either broken up or a pick six. In what looks like a brilliant adjustment by both Forcier and Koger, Koger shoots upfield a bit, turning this into a seam, and Forcier lets it fly, hitting Koger between the numbers in a tight window between the corner and safety. Koger... drops it. Aigh. Safety coming over to blast him helped. (DO, 2, protection NA) | ||||||||||||
M41 | 3 | 1 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Rollout deep Hitch | Stonum | 59 | |
Minor gets a block on the edge defender and Stonum bursts open 20 yards downfield with only a late-arriving safety attempting to rein him in. He scoots inside of him, loping for the endzone. At the ten he stiffarms the last resistance and glides in. (DO, 3, protection 2/2) Replay. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 13-20, 4 min 4th Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
M8 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 4-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Hitch | Stonum | 9 | |
State playing way off, which would be GERG BUBBLE frustrating to me as an MSU fan. Stonum just runs a hitch and is wide open despite no one throwing him the ball for a while. Forcier surveys, does not find anything he likes, and then flushes a bit, finding Stonum on the sideline for nine. He gets OOB. (CA, 3, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
M17 | 2 | 1 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Rollout out | Odoms | Inc | |
Shorter out than the other outs as MSU is in zone but Forcier finds Odoms open for what should a first down; he throws it low and Odoms can't dig out a tough catch. (MA, 1, protection 1/1) | ||||||||||||
M17 | 3 | 1 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 10 | |
So there's no slot to Forcier's side of the field on this and therefore no contain defender out there; the DE slides down the line as he's been coached to do all week because of the zone counter dive, leaving the corner open. Forcier pulls it out and grabs the first down plus a good bit more. | ||||||||||||
M27 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Wheel | Brown | 2 (Pen +15) | |
Michigan gets MSU to jump. Spartan players come in unimpeded because of the freeze play, forcing Forcier to dump it to Brown, who gets lit up, dropping the ball. (CA, 1, protection NA) No matter. State also gets a roughing call afterwards. They take the roughing. | ||||||||||||
M42 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Bubble counter | Odoms | 9 | |
Finally they run this and M catches it. This is a variant of their flare screen type thing where Odoms goes on a bubble route, drawing the requisite bubble freak out, then dives inside for a jailbreak screen. And this is open for days and days but for Moosman's inability to block or cut the LB spying on Forcier. Odoms has to cut behind the mess and gets tracked down just short of the sticks. (CA, 3, screen) | ||||||||||||
O49 | 2 | 1 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 12 | |
Same thing, with the DE crashing down like a mother and no State contain in their pass D package opening up tons of space for Forcier. He would have 10, 20 more if he didn't slip on the turf due to the rain. | ||||||||||||
O37 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Unicorn dust | Stonum | 12 | |
Jesus H Hopscotching Christ. Forcier has no protection because of the empty set, can't handle a low, wet snap from Moosman, and has an unblocked corner coming in ready to provide certain doom. He manages to grab the ball, slide up in the pocket past two blitzers, abort a planned scramble when another linebacker comes charging up, and peg Stonum for a first down. Jebus. (DO++, 2, protection 0/2, team) | ||||||||||||
O25 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 2-back | 2 | 0 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Post | Mathews | Inc | |
Aigh! Forcier's first read is Brown on the wheel but he delays coming out of the backfield, faking a block on a DE, and gets covered as a result. Forcier comes off him, zipping forward in the pocket past a rusher and unleashing a ball at a wide open Mathews in the endzone... it's to Tacopants. (IN, 0, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
O25 | 2 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Pass | Fly | Mathews | Inc | |
Actually comes with a half-roll to the opposite side of the field. Forcier pulls up and comes back to the near side of the field—no safeties. Mathews, as per usual, is pretty covered, but he does have a step on his guy. Ball is OOB. (IN, 0, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
O25 | 3 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Rollout scramble | Forcier | 14 | |
Rollout sucks everyone to the wide side of the field; Ortmann(-1) lets an MSU DE by that Schilling(+1) manages to dive at and take off his feet with help from the slippery track. Forcier looks over to avoid him, notices the wide open space to that side, and takes off. He's nearing the first down but not there yet when he spins inside a linebacker and still gets OOB. (TA, 0, protection 1/2, Ortmann -1) | ||||||||||||
O11 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Rollout scramble | Forcier | 2 | |
A very similar play to the last one with a rollout and Forcier looking back for Mathews but deciding he's covered. He sees an opening to the side opposite the rollout; this time a DT has peeled around to chase him and tackles at the ankles. Forcier fumbles out of bounds... Michigan was screwed otherwise, because he was coming down in bounds. (TA, NA, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
O9 | 2 | 8 | Shotgun empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | AIGH NO | Mathews | Inc | |
Forcier fumbles the snap, can't pick it up, finally gets it, no pressure, but he's panicking, and just lofts one into a zillion people that ACTUALLY HITS MATHEWS IN THE FACE MASK, but is dropped. What the hell? If this is complete everyone would explode. (BR, 2, protection 2/2) | ||||||||||||
O9 | 3 | 8 | Shotgun empty | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3-5 Nickel | Pass | Deep slant | Roundtree | 9 | |
Epic coverage bust, Forcier rollout, reads it, hits it, touchdown, I know we lost but I need a cigarette and I don't smoke. (CA, 2, protection 1/1) | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 20-20, EOG. Overtime. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Ds | O Form | RB | TE | WR | D Form | Type | Play | Player | Yards | |
O25 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun Trips | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 5 | |
State's contain guy here is actually a safety, so he's away from the LOS. This allows Forcier some room; safety forms up and tackles. | ||||||||||||
O20 | 2 | 5 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Rollout out | Odoms | 7 | |
State lining up a LB inside of Odoms in preparation for a run; Michigan rolls the pocket and has Odoms run an out. Open, Forcier throws, Odoms grabs it as he nears the sidelines. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) | ||||||||||||
O13 | 1 | 10 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Run | Zone read keeper | Forcier | 3 | |
State blitzes a linebacker inside and then stunts a defensive end outside of the tackle; the play here is actually the veer Michigan's run a lot and Minor could be poised to zip up into the safeties if he just gets the damn ball; Forcier keeps it. He does have the good sense to see the two guys outside and use Minor as a lead blocker, picking up four . Minor would have been quicker to the hole and more likely to pound someone; if this was actually a read Forcier messed it up. | ||||||||||||
O10 | 2 | 7 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Nickel | Run | Zone read veer | Minor | 2 | |
Um. So again Minor is shooting right upfield with an intent to hit it up quickly when the D overreacts to the stretch, and Michigan pulls Koger around to block the backside DE... Koger just runs right by him. So the DE tackles. | ||||||||||||
O8 | 3 | 5 | Shotgun 3-wide | 1 | 1 | 3 | Base 4-3 | Pass | Rollout deep cross | Odoms | Int | |
Michigan rolls the pocket and floods one side the the field; Forcier needs to get rid of it because a blitz confuses the OL and lets Worthy through unblocked. (Ortmann -2, his missed pickup). Forcier might have Koger on a short cross for first down yardage; instead, pressured, he chucks it at a very covered Odoms. Things happen afterwards that are not good. (BR, 0, protection 0/2, Ortmann -2). On replay you can see Odoms slowing up, possibly preparing to break back the other way if Forcier gets scrambly, which allows the safety to overtake him. Error on his part? | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Interception, 20-20, end of first overtime |
Dammit.
Yeah. Hamburgers.
Charts?
Yeah. Charts.
(Hennechart legend; MA is "marginal", screen results are in parens.)
TATE FORCIER
Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Michigan | 2 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - | 3 |
Notre Dame | 5 | 20 (6) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | - | 4 |
Eastern Michigan | 1 | 8 (2) | 1 | 1 (1) | 1 | 4 (1) | - | - |
Indiana | 3 | 13 (3) | 1 (1) | 2 | 5 | 3 | - | 2 |
Michigan State | 5 | 19 (3) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | - | 5 |
DENARD ROBINSON
Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Michigan | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | - |
Eastern Michigan | - | 1 | 1 (1) | 2 (1) | - | - | - | - |
Indiana | - | 1 | 1 (1) | - | - | - | - | - |
Michigan State | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - |
Goddamn. You wouldn't know it because of all the pressure and the drops killing his stats, but Forcier had a spectacular day. His downfield success rate* was 71%, which is up there with Chad Henne's best game. Chad Henne's best games didn't come with game-killing overtime interceptions, sure. He made three and a half terrible decisions throwing the ball (with the half being the bomb to Koger) and some additional ones in the ground game.
But does anyone remember the "Sheridan Might Start!" meme? Will anyone own up to actually advancing that point of view? No? No.
*((DO + CA) / All Throws Not Marked MA or PR)
There are two man reasons Forcier's numbers didn't live up to the chart above. Reason the first:
This Game | Totals | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Hemingway | - | - | 1/1 | 1/1 | 2 | - | 1/1 | 6/6 | |
Mathews | 2 | - | 0/1 | - | 7 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 6/6 | |
Stonum | - | 1/1 | 1/1 | 4/4 | 1 | 1/2 | 3/4 | 8/8 | |
Savoy | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | 0/1 | 3/3 | |
Odoms | - | 0/1 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 3 | 1/2 | 3/4 | 10/11 | |
Grady-19 | - | - | - | 0/1 | 2 | - | 1/1 | 8/11 | |
Roundtree | 1 | - | 1/2 | - | 1 | - | 1/2 | - | |
Rogers | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Koger | - | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | - | 2/3 | 2/3 | 5/6 | |
Webb | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | 2/3 | |
Minor | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Brown | - | 0/1 | - | 2/3 | - | 1/3 | 1/1 | 5/6 | |
Shaw | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0/1 | - | |
Smith | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Moundros | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
That is three flat drops (Brown's "drop" was not looking for the hot route) and three catchable balls that were not brought in. Add the drops and maybe one or two of the tougher catches and Forcier is now at 22/32 for 260-280 yards and his performance looks almost identical to the Notre Dame game where he unleashed his inner Superman.
Reason the second:
PROTECTION METRIC: 37/57, Team –5, Dorrestein –4, Ortmann –4, Ferrara –3, Huyge –2, Minor –2, Moosman –1.
That is terrible, and large parts of it can be blamed on the absence of one David Molk. People who would not have been playing otherwise picked up –7 and one bad Moosman snap was given –1: more than half of the 15 negative points assigned to specific players on the line are attributable in ways direct or indirect to Molk's foot. And that's not even considering his keenly-felt absence from the run game.
Not going out on a limb: if Molk is healthy Michigan wins. When he got injured and Rodriguez called him Michigan's best player on offense he wasn't kidding. He might not be right, but he was serious.
So the right side of the line just can't block?
It appears so. Michigan again went with Huyge and Dorrestein on the right side and got so discontent with this arrangement that Huyge got pulled for Ferrara, who immediately gave up a crushing sack. GS's run chart is up early enough to directly reference it this week, so: both Huyge and Dorrestein ended up –2, with Ferrara picking up a –1. It's not like the rest of the team covered themselves in glory—your winner on the OL is +1 Ortmann—but there were major problems on the right side of the line in both pass protection and against the run.
All this invites one question: where is supposed new mega-star Patrick Omamaeh? Omameh was the projected starter at right tackle in the spring and now can't find the field despite serious issues over yonder. He remains a redshirt freshman and shouldn't be written off but if he was going to be an uber-star he'd find his way onto the field before a journeyman like Dorrestein. As per usual, the preseason hype machine run by mysterious insiders is of questionable validity.
Is that what happened to the ground game?
Partially. It was odd. On the first play of the game Michigan State brought out this crazy slant that came around the stretch blocks from the other side and crushed Michigan's first offensive play.
I've seen a couple other teams try this—the team foremost in my mind was Penn State last year—get gashed doing it, and then quit. Wisconsin and Penn State used to do this against the DeBord stretch all the time and since Michigan had very little in the way of counters, it worked very well. But IIRC this was about the only time State brought that out.
So it didn't seem that schematic. What I saw happen: Michigan got a reduced number of opportunities because of the game situation and on those limited opportunities there was a ton of terrible execution. Forcier kept the ball when he should have handed it off, most painfully on Michigan's overtime drive where a veer play absolutely had State for a ton of yards and maybe a touchdown but Forcier kept it and was forced to follow Minor into the hole for only four. Twice Brown burst into the open field with a lead blocker and naught but one player between him and the endzone and both times Brown and the lead blocker failed to beat that one guy. Martavious Odoms took a reverse and had absolutely cavernous space to cut up into but did not realize it until far too late and slipped making his cut. On several plays State had left themselves open for a big cutback run behind the center but the tailbacks did not take it. And, yes, the right side of the line repeatedly failed to crease State's DL or chop the backside DT when plays went away from it. State did a good job—on both of those potential big gainers the State player in question made a huge, touchdown saving tackle—but Michigan left a ton of yards on the field. Chalk that up to youth, first road game, rain, injury, whatever.
Why can't we throw the bubble? Everyone else can.
This is why:
Opposing safeties are zooming down into the box to handle it as soon as they see the fake there. Michigan needs to counter this, and quickly, but not with the outside receiver, which is a play that works but doesn't put the fear of God into opponents. Michigan broke out the counter screen to this on the 92-yard drive to tie the game:
And that's something that if it catches the right defense and the right safety/LB freakout will bust for a touchdown. Look for it more.
Heroes?
Tate. Tate Tate Tate. Also Stonum.
Goats?
The right side of the line. Also Stonum for fumbling. And Greg Mathews has a remarkable knack for getting Forcier to overthrow him or target him in situations where he absolutely should not be targeted.
What does it mean for Iowa and beyond?
Tate is still working on becoming a pocket passer but he put in another Notre Dame-level performance last weekend and every game we get like that is further evidence that he just plays at that level and will do so in the future. Yes, he remains a freshman too prone to scramble out of the pocket and too ready to chuck it into a mess of opponents. There is almost nothing else to criticize.
The run game had a horrible, largely self-inflicted day in a limited sample size. Adjustments should be lowered a bit, especially for the Iowa game, but going forward Michigan should do much better than they did against State. Getting Molk back is key.
Michigan got some clarity on the wide receiver positions: Savoy was not targeted and Grady took a seat after his initial drop. Odoms, Mathews, Stonum, and Hemingway appear to be the main guys there, with Stonum the man who gad the most looks (6). Could he be emerging into the deep threat he was reputed to be? Let's hope so.
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Odoms, Mathews, Stonum, and Hemingway appear to be the man guys there, with Stonum the man who gad the most looks (6).I like it! Beats having Chick Guys at the position! Just teasing, obviously. Great stuff, as always, Brian!
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