basketball preview
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #9 Michigan (4-2) vs #49 North Carolina (4-2) |
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WHERE | Dean Smith Center Chapel Hill, NC |
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WHEN | 9:15 PM Eastern Wednesday, 12/1 |
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THE LINE | Kenpom: M -4 Torvik: M -1 |
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TELEVISION | ESPN |
THE OVERVIEW
Michigan seeks to run its recent streak of victories over UNC to three in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game tonight. Roy Williams retired this offseason and UNC, like so many other schools, decided to run the Juwan Howard playbook by hiring an assistant coach who is a famous alum of the program. In this case Hubert Davis was Williams's right-hand man and widely regarded as a coach in waiting, but it's still the playbook.
Davis took over a program that was in rough shape, by UNC standards. In 2019 they imploded, going 6-14 in the ACC, and last year's recovery was only good enough to an 8-9 game against Wisconsin that they lost by 23 points. A relatively wobbly recruiting class (again by UNC standards, just a couple of guys ranked in the 60s) led to Davis hitting the portal for some bigs, and results are trending about where they were last year.
UNC has beaten four teams ranked in the 200s on Kenpom and lost to #2 Purdue by 9 and #14 Tennessee by 17, both of those on neutral courts. Michigan will be highly advised to win this winnable game lest things start looking unfathomably grim relative to preseason expectations.
THE US
Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:
THE LINEUP CARD
Seth's graphic [click for big]:
Seth notes that Hubert Davis set a Bo Ryan Index record with a stunning 0%—he is angry or upset in literally none of the first three rows of google image search photos.
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THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #3 Michigan (23-4, 14-3 B1G) vs #16 UCLA (21-9, 13-6 PAC12) |
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WHERE | RAW Power App Stadium Indianapolis, IN |
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WHEN | 9:57 PM Eastern Tuesday, March 30th |
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THE LINE | Kenpom: M -5 Torvik: M –4.8 |
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TELEVISION | CBS PBP: Brian Anderson Analyst: Jim Jackson |
THE OVERVIEW
Michigan plays for its third Final Four since 2013 tonight against play-in upstart UCLA. This is not your typical 11 seed, by the numbers. UCLA's boat has been lifted both by its performance and the Pac-12s shocking romp through the tournament, so they've skyrocketed from 45th in Kenpom on the eve of the tourney to the 16th you see above.
That said, Michigan just stuck #13 Florida State in a trash can and should feel at least a little fortunate that UCLA squeezed by Alabama in overtime. The three-heavy Crimson Tide hit 25% from deep and 44% from the line; it felt like replaying that game several times would result in many more Alabama wins than UCLA ones.
The Bruins do come in with a couple of common opponents: they lost 77-70 to OSU in Cleveland and squeezed by MSU in OT in the play-in round. OSU shot 61% from two; EJ Liddell and Zed Key combined for 17 points on 12 interior shooting possessions. That may be Dickinson-relevant. (Liddell was also 1/3 from three, FWIW.) I'm not sure there's much to take out of the MSU game other than schadenfreude. MSU's offense doesn't have a lot of comparison points with Michigan's.
THE US
Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:
No changes from last time out.
THE LINEUP CARD
Seth's graphic [click for big]:
I usually have something to say here but I do not this time.
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Sponsor note! Yes you're going to memorize this face!
The housing market is currently a bit out of control. Finding the right house at the right price is becoming more difficult by the day. That is where Matt Demorest, who runs Simplified Homes with Keller Williams Domain comes in. You have heard Matt on the podcast, read the great reviews on his mortgage business, and interacted with him on the boards for years. In the meantime, he has been slowly building out a team of highly qualified residential Realtors using the same commitment to integrity and service we have come to trust. Matt and his team serve all of Michigan, even Spartans. If you are thinking about buying or selling a home he is your guy.
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THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #2 Michigan (20-4, 14-3 B1G) vs #220 Texas Southern (17-8, 10-3 SWAC) |
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WHERE | Mackey Arena West Lafayette, IN |
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WHEN | 3 PM Eastern Saturday, March 20 |
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THE LINE | Kenpom: M -25 Torvik: M -23 |
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TELEVISION | CBS PBP: Ian Eagle Analyst: Grant Hill |
THE OVERVIEW
Texas Southern defeated Mount St. Mary's 60-52 in the First Four and now enters the NCAA tournament proper. (Condolences to Michigan State, which could not replicate that feat.) Your author regards this with grim amusement since he's been advocating for Michigan to avoid SWAC teams for years since they've acted as anchors in a lot of teamsheet metrics no matter how you beat them. The first year Michigan actually filled out their schedule primarily with mid-majors in the 100-200 range, they draw a SWAC team in the first round.
Anyway, TSU's bid represents a return to form for the Tigers, who had four bids in five years under Mike Davis from 2014-2018. Davis moved on to Detroit, where he's been rebuilding the crater that Bacari Alexander left. TSU hired former LSU coach Johnny Jones and has resided at or near the top of the league since; this is their first bid under Jones.
TSU has not made it out of the first round during this period because all but one of their bids was as a 16 seed. The 2014-15 Tigers got a 15 largely on the strength of an overtime victory over Michigan State. I don't make up the historical facts, I just report 'em.
THE US
Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:
Isaiah Livers does not make the lineup card at all.
THE LINEUP CARD
Seth's graphic [click for big]:
The Johnny Jones Index temporarily replaces the Bo Ryan Index. The Johnny Jones index is how many images on the first page of a google image search are of you at another job.
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Maryland basketball presented by HomeSure Lending
gus game, prepare accordingly
yeah okay you get the S
back like mcrib no wait terrible analogy don't publish th-
five-out vs on-your-head
missing the presences of Cowan and Sticks but still feisty
the return of thorthor (and not much else)
Penn State is small but ornery
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