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You can place wagers on just about anything: Michigan to win, or for Not Michigan to flail aimlessly and never approach the bucket, or whether or not the noggin of Not Michigan's head coach will literally lift off his body at some point.

...okay, they're telling me the last two aren’t live bets. But they should be.

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#3 Michigan (13-1, 8-1 B1G) vs #12 Wisconsin (15-6, 9-5)	serious business badger
WHERE	Trohl Center Madison, WI
WHEN	1 PM Eastern Sunday, February 14th
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -1 Torvik: M -1
TELEVISION	CBS PBP: Kevin Harlan Analyst: Bill Raftery

THE OVERVIEW

HELLO! BASKETBALL IS ONCE AGAIN UPON US!

Michigan returns from what will be a 22-day layoff on Sunday against Wisconsin. The last time these two teams met Michigan slapped the Badgers with what's likely to stand as the run of the decade, a 43-6 power sanding that spanned halftime.

Since then Wisconsin has descended from Big Ten contender to also-ran, losing by double digits to OSU, Penn State, and Illinois to land at 9-5 in conference play. Their wins since the Michigan demolition have largely been against the bottom of the conference—a road win against Rutgers is the exception.

The Badgers cannot get to the rim; the guards aren't big enough to post; the centers can't hit threes. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the swing offense? Now that I have said this the Trohl Center will devour my soul. Eh, I had a good run.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Dickinson lost his crown as he's dropped out of the KPOY top ten. After checking out Brooks's on/off splits yesterday we considered giving him a star but held off. Thinking about it, though.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Wisconsin yanked Reuvers from the starting lineup after the previous Michigan game; Wahl stepped in. Reuvers did start Wisconsin's most recent game against Nebraska, but that was Potter's first time coming off the bench this season so we'll list him first. In reality this a pure platoon situation with the two Cs splitting minutes almost down the middle.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Wisconsin's doing a lot of this [Campredon]

Wisconsin remains Wisconsin. Thus the beards. Updates from the first preview:

• It was hypothesized that D'Mitrik Trice was in for some regression to the mean after he started the season on a tear. This has in fact happened, as his shooting away from the rim has gone back to junior year levels. Getting much better at the rim seems to have stuck but that's still a minor part of his game.
• Brad Davison's horrible year inside the arc is approaching legendary.
  
  
  
  He is currently shooting 23% inside the arc, which is the worst mark in the T-Rank era for any Big Ten player with at least 40 attempts. He's maintaining some efficiency by shooting decently from 3 and almost never turning the ball over.
• At the time of the first game Micah Potter had a huge edge on Reuvers in on/off splits. This is no longer the case:
  
  
  
  Flip it and Reuvers actually fares a little better—which you have to do because there are a bunch of possessions with both guys on the court that went badly. Potter's three point shooting is a problem; he's gone from 47% in league play last year to 28% this year. Reuvers, meanwhile, is hitting 3s at a 15% clip in league play and is 29% on the season. This is killing them.
• You can add Aleem Ford to the pile of Badgers who have regressed badly. His 129 B10 ORTG from the first meeting has fallen to 101.

That's a lot of scuffling.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Last time out Wisconsin had the fourth best eFG in league play. Now they… do not have that.

Left: offense, right: defense

Their FTA/FGA rate has also dropped seven points, taking them from average to almost dead last. Wisconsin's defense, on the other hand, continues to perform at around the same level. The result is a sort of inverse (if less extreme) Iowa: Wisconsin is 10th in B10 offense and 2nd on defense.

THE KEYS

Don't get boned by COVID layoff. The data here is fairly thin once you get out to Michigan's days missed, but Evan Miyakawa has some data suggesting that Michigan should expect to play 2-3 points worse than they would otherwise. Given the nature of Michigan's shutdown—absolutely no practice or group work for two full weeks—the median expectation is probably worse. This won't be relevant if this game goes like the other game but 1) remember Minnesota, 2) Trohl Center, and 3) both major tempo-free sites see this as a one-point game.

 

Win at the rim. Michigan had more makes at the rim in the opener (16) than Wisconsin had attempts (12). If Michigan plays like crap shooting is a likely way that manifests, and getting to the rim might mitigate that. Meanwhile Wisconsin's early efficiency was based on knocking down bunches of long twos; they are no longer doing that. They've been clanking in the midrange for three weeks now.

ceci n'est pas une closeout [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Hope their centers don't get back on track. Potter and Reuvers went 2/8 from behind the line in the first matchup on 8 good to excellent looks, and Michigan is still primarily a drop coverage team playing two traditional centers. They're going to get more open shots from behind the line. To date those have been the least threatening shots in Wisconsin's arsenal, but both guys were solid to excellent a year ago.

Activate the bench if you can. This is more of a key for the stretch run here as Michigan has up to 5 games to make up and one gap of more than 3 days between games. Getting productive minutes from guys like Johns, Davis, Jackson and Williams is going to be more important than it usually is, both to save starters' legs and to step in if someone gets injured and is about to miss a run of games.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.

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