THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

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the charts, explained

There's still no official timetable for the return of Austin Davis, who's out indefinitely with a plantar fascia injury. He remains out, leaving Brandon Johns and Terrance Williams to soak up any center minutes not used by Hunter Dickinson. 

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

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Don't worry if you don't recognize a lot of these faces. Fred Hoiberg probably still has trouble. His team features nine(!) transfers. While the above has been their most common starting lineup, we could see something different depending upon how Hoiberg wants to match up against Dickinson and M's overall size. Against Wisconsin, which started two bigs in Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter, center Yvan Ouedraogo replaced wing Thorir Thorbjarnarson in the lineup.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

With Northwestern pulling off its second straight upset, this time at Indiana, to take sole possession of first place in the Big Ten, Nebraska is now in a clear one-team tier in the conference basement. Every Big Ten team ranks inside the top 53(!!!) on KenPom with the exception of the Huskers, which languish at #116. Torvik's projections like Nebraska better and still have them 92nd, 37 spots behind the next-worst team in the conference, Minnesota.

The Huskers opened conference play on Tuesday with an ugly slog at Wisconsin that they led by as many as ten points before giving up runs of 19-2 and 16-0 to eventually lose by 14. Nebraska couldn't sustain a consistent offensive attack; when the Badgers stopped turning it over at an uncharacteristic clip, they easily came back even though they didn't shoot particularly well at all.

Nebraska relies heavily on their slew of transfers. Teddy Allen, who played his freshman year at West Virginia and led all JuCo players in scoring last year at over 31 PPG, is taking on a huge offensive load, attempting over a third of Nebraska's shots when he's on the court. At 6'6/223, Allen has a variety of ways he creates offense, from being a pick-and-roll ballhandler to posting up to spotting up. He's a beneficiary of Hoiberg's transition-heavy approach, getting a quarter of his possessions on the break, according to Synergy. His shot chart:

While he's not the best finisher, his volume of shots around the rim compared to a near-total lack of midrange shots keeps his scoring pretty efficient. He's a bit of a black hole but also doesn't turn it over much.

Western Kentucky transfer Dalano Banton is a 6'9/204 point forward who fills the stat sheet. The Toronto native does a lot of his work running the pick-and-roll and he's a pretty good threat to finish, draw a foul, or find an open man when he drives—he's accounted for almost half of the team's assist total and has generally kept his turnovers down. Banton is also the team's leading defensive rebounder and shot-blocker while usually adding a steal or two. He's a solid all-around player.

Now we start running down players who may have matchup issues. Hoiberg has a decision to make with his starters. The usual starting center, Lat Mayen, is only 6'9/205 and may not have the bulk to handle Dickinson down low. Mayen can give Dickinson trouble on the other end, though, because he takes most of his shots from beyond the arc (though he's only making 32% of them). The other option is removing a starter, whether it's a straight-up swap for Mayen or pulling Thorbjarnarson to go big like Hoiberg did on Tuesday, and inserting 6'9/245 sophomore Yvan Ouedraogo, who has some heft and much more shot-blocking upside. The tradeoff is Oeudraogo isn't an offensive threat beyond putbacks and his thirst for blocks belies poor overall defense.

Having Banton as the primary distributor allows Hoiberg to start a large backcourt. 6'4 junior Trey McGowens, a Pitt transfer, is the nominal point guard, at least on defense, even though he plays nothing like one on offense. He's a decent outside shooter who's done most of his damage in transition this season, though his career numbers suggest his current 41% mark on three-pointers is going to come down. He has a knack for drawing fouls but also a habit of turning the ball over.

If Hoiberg goes with his normal starters, the final spot will be filled by one of two returning contributors (Ouedraogo is the other), Icelandic guard Thorir Thorbjarnarson, who's in his fourth year at Nebraska. While lasting to his senior year in this program is an accomplishment worth celebrating, ThorThor has the unfortunate combination of low usage and bad efficiency this year. He was a threat from beyond the arc last year, so Michigan might not be able to abandon him despite his current struggles.

The sixth man is Western Illinois transfer Kobe Webster, a 6'0/172 traditional point guard who was a playmaker in his first three years but generally takes a back seat to Banton in this offense, serving more as a spot-up shooter. He can light it up in a hurry, like when he dropped 20 points on nine shooting possessions in the loss to Georgia Tech; he also has some duds, like his zero-point outing on Tuesday.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Nebraska's defense (97th) and offense (149th) are the two worst-ranked units on KenPom in the conference, and it'd be by an embarrassing margin if not for Minnesota's 82nd-ranked defense.

They play fast because it's a necessity. The halfcourt offense is poor, generating 0.86 points per possession compared to 1.06 in transition, per Synergy. The team's shooting percentages are bad across the board; a 65% team mark from the line somewhat offsets one of the things they actually do well.

The Huskers are willing to gamble for turnovers in their man-to-man defense; they're 35th nationally in steal rate and it looks like much of that is jumping passing lanes because they've been able to avoid team foul trouble. They don't have much of a rim presence when Ouedraogo isn't in the game, however, and opponents have been able to generate a lot of three-point shots.

THE KEYS

No lazy passes. Both obvious and essential. Wisconsin was a little lazy early on in Tuesday's game and the Huskers jumped all over them. When they cleaned it up, the game turned into a blowout. I'm a little worried about Michigan's starting guards getting passes over/around Nebraska's long, aggressive defense, something that's been an issue for both Eli Brooks and Mike Smith at times. Nebraska's primary hope of an upset is to get out on the fast break. They'll get some free points by gambling but those can't be too numerous and must be offset with patient offense.

Help the post. The Huskers have some guys who hang out on the perimeter that aren't particularly dangerous as shooters; they also have a lot of size across the board (except at center) and the ability to spread the floor, isolate certain matchups, and attack down low. Neither of Nebraska's primary center options are strong offensive players; Dickinson's help is going to be important, as will the rotations to block out rebounders when he gives it.

Run the offense through Dickinson. Even more than usual, that is. A nice solution to facing aggressive, lane-jumping defenses is to have a scoring/passing threat who can see above everyone on the court. Juwan Howard has done a great job finding ways to get the ball do Dickinson early in the clock and let him operate. A couple quick fouls on Ouedraogo would put Hoiberg in a serious bind, too; he doesn't have another big man who weighs over 205 pounds, which should give you visions of Dickinson stuffing players into the basket support.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 9.

Stuff players into the basket support, please.