Which positions are most likely to enter NFL draft early?

Submitted by Btown Wolverine on

So, I live in Bloomington and, because of this, I associate with a lot of IU fans. After this weekend's game, I would prefer to not face Jordan Howard again. He is a junior, so he could enter the draft early, as I understand it.

This got me to thinking: Are there particular positions which are more likely to enter the NFL draft early? Given the short duration of most RB careers, I would guess that a promising young RB would be more likely to enter early than another position.

Does anybody have insight/data on this? I did a quick google search, but didn't find anything very promising.

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Padog

November 16th, 2015 at 8:27 AM ^

Skill positions are always more likely, but it all depends on the player. Some leave when they are ready or not because they need the money. Some value a degree more than others.



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Wolverine In Exile

November 16th, 2015 at 8:28 AM ^

RB, DL & QB are most likely to go early. Those are the three positions that usually have multi-year starters by Jr year that are considered positions with shelf lives and are drafted highly by NFL teams traditionally to put more pressure on a player to come out early. The RB decrease the past 5-10 years or so in the NFL I still think is a blimp more than a new trend. .

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Victor Valiant

November 16th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^

You're right about RB, DL, and QB going pro early but wrong about the reason QBs and DLs go early. RBs definitely have a short shelf life in the NFL, and usually experience declining production around age 30.

DL and QB are not considered positions with short shelf lives physically, so you're incorrect there. Decent QBs last for 10-15 years in the NFL a ton of the time as stars (Manning, Brady, Brees, Romo, Roethlisberger, Rodgers), decent starters (Fitzpatrick, Palmer, Smith, Rivers, Cutler), and more backups than I care to list. Defensive lineman can last 10-15 years as well. The younger edge rushers typically bulk up and become either run stopping ends, situational rushers, or defensive tackles.

The only reason QBs tend to leave early is because the demand for talented QBs never ceases. It is the one position that can make or break an NFL team each and every season. Pro coaches would also rather get a spread guy into the NFL as soon as possible to teach him the correct way to do things before it is too late.

Lineman go early because pass rushers are always at a premium. Pass rushing is also something that transitions well to the NFL, so coaches can get a younger guy on the field a lot faster.

TL;DR: QB and DL are not considered positions that have an unusually short shelf life, so you're wrong.

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Larry Appleton

November 16th, 2015 at 8:31 AM ^

RBs are and should be first out the door. They have the shortest career lifespan, and should spend as many of those years as possible collecting paychecks.



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reshp1

November 16th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^

Not saying DL wasn't an issue, but our linebacker play was atrocious. DL was outstanding and covered up for them by demanding doubles up to now. DL played ok against Indiana until the end when they ran out of gas, but required help from the LBs, and they failed miserably. Even with DL at full strength, the better OLs we'll face will test the LBs, especially if they have a good back behind them. Given our three best options aren't very good and are all leaving, next year's LB depth chart terrifies me.

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schreibee

November 16th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^

It wasn't just Howard - who's the best back I've seen this year maybe including Ezekial Elloitt - the backup also moved the pile, broke tackles and just flat eluded tacklers.

There has been a steady regression for a few games now, and remember Rutgers was missing their only true star on O - so that result is a bit skewed too.

But Minny did many of the same things we saw vs IU - moving the pile, breaking tackles, etc. It's really my single most-hated thing to tell myself when watching a Michigan game, but Minn & IU just played with more determination than we did. We can't effectively run, and our opponents can.

I know people hate to hear stuff like that, so I'm gonna take a hit - but watch the games again and note how many times both team's RBs moved the pile after contact and broke tackles... it's something I thought we'd never have to see again under Harbaugh!

I guess guys are just getting tired? But that 3-shutout string feels like a LONG time ago. I mean, who wasn't thanking God when both Minn & IU threw the ball on the goal line in crucial, game deciding situations (and taking 17 ticks to do it?

If Hackenburg looks good suddenly against us, Yikes! I'd just ID Jourdan every snap and go the other way...

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Marley Nowell

November 16th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^

Running Backs should leave as soon as possible. They only have so many carries in their legs and should maximize those while they are getting paid.

Quarterbacks should also leave early if their stock is high. There have been countless examples (Matt Barkley comes to mind) of QBs who where considered #1 Overall Picks their Junior Year who stuck around for Senior Year and fell in the draft.

No other position really stands out to me. Its seems OL and LBs have the most to gain by coming back so they continue to learn the nuances of the game to be successful.

 

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bronxblue

November 16th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^

My guess is RB, WR, and DB.  Those are the postions it seems where great athletes wind up, and you figure you can learn technique in the NFL better than in college.  

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Perkis-Size Me

November 16th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^

Skill positions usually go first, particularly running backs. Those guys have such a short shelf life in the NFL that if they're any good in college, it's in their best interest to leave sooner rather than later and start collecting those paychecks while they can. If they stick around in college any longer than they have to, then they're one injury away from losing hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions of dollars.



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MichiganG

November 16th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^

I took a list of underclassmen who were eligible for the 2015 draft, and here's how it breaks down.  I don't think the source I used was the final 'official' list, but it should be close enough.  In parentheses are whether the number of underclassmen are on-index, above, or below compared to how many players are typically rostered on an NFL team.

QB: 3 (on-index)

RB: 14 (way over-index)

WR: 13 (over-index)

TE: 4 (on-index)

OL: 7 (way below index)

DL: 13 (on-index)

LB: 3 (way below index)

DB: 13 (on-index)

P: 1 (who cares?)

So in terms of absolute numbers, no surprise that the positions that require large numbers of players on an NFL (and college) roster are well represented.  But, on average, 2015 saw dramatically more RBs 'per capita' (so to speak), and significantly fewer OL and LB than you'd expect.  Roughly all other positions were well represented, with some increase in the number of WRs.

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MichiganG

November 16th, 2015 at 2:39 PM ^

Took the liberty of going back to 2014, too.  Highly consistent overall with RB being way over-index, OL and LB way under-represented.  WRs were more over-index than in 2015; and TEs were also over-index.  DL may have been a little light but probably within year-to-year expected variability.

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