Tom Fornelli From CBS Sports: Big Ten East Over/Under Michigan over 7 Wins

12-0. My favorite game this year will be a tie. Between all of them. 

and we're undefeated heading into the Game. If we can beat Utah on the road out of the gate, there is no limit to what this team can accomplish. But I will have no idea how good either team is until halftime.

The Utah game is the biggest game of the season. If we win that, than I think we roll through non-conference and into November undefeated. If we can eat Utah on the road, no way we lose to State at home in mid-October.

The last two games, @Penn St and vs OSU are tough. I'm dead serious that if we beat Utah, we have an above 50% chance to be 10-0

I am in the minority when I say Michigan has a great chance to win 10 games this. Because look, all of our games last year were really close at halftime, save Notre Dame. But Michigan looked as if it could play with any opponent in the country in the first half, however the other teams coaches made adjustments whereas Hoke did not. Over, easy. Because all we need to do is beat Maryland and Rutgers, and upset one team to make it an eight win year.

It's simple . . . if we can run the ball like we started to do with Johnson at the end of last season, we will win a lot of games.  If we can't run, Rudock, Peppers, et al can not save us.

I am more excited and hopeful for the re-emergence of Johnson than any other player.  Had he stayed in the game, I really think we would have beaten Ohio State.  They had no answer for him.

He has that quick wiggle and the ability to squirt through holes, ala Hart and Morris, that plays to the skills of our current OL.  Johnson gets us to third-and-two instead of third-and-six.

We are still not in a position where we are just going to steamroll over people.  

   

 

9-3...losses to OSU, PSU and one we shouldn't.

Imagine a season where UM beats State and OSU. I am praying that it happens.

Realistically, I say a 8 or 9 win season. But, we do have the Harbaugh so anything (good) can happen. I keep saying to all my OSU friends that they will be undefeated until they come up to A2 and UM gets the upset. I truly believe that and starts the intensity with the rivalry again.

Like others have said if we can run the ball we could win 8-10. If not, probably 6-7...

Wow, tons of optimism in this thread. I guess it's to be expected with Harbaugh on board.

However, the past decade has made me pretty gun shy when it comes to win predictions. I would definitely take the Over 7 wins if I had to, but I'm also not expecting 9-10 at this point.

The coaches won't have had all that much time with the team in year 1. We have a new QB, and a very tough schedule. I'm hoping for the best, but I've been disappointed too many times to expect a miracle turnaround.

I'd be happy with 8 wins, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

7 Wins is realistic for this team...Saban was 6 and 6 his first year some of you need to remember that. Michigan has alot of talent but it has not been developed properly. Harbaugh is tearing down the old along with installing the new. He needs at least 3 seasons for this program to blossom. However we will be treated to competence and well executed doorbell which has been sorely lacking for quite some time.

Under 7 That's easy money. Not going to do well this year. Just to much that's " new" hopefully 6 and a bowl this year. 9 or more the following year. Maybe beat OSU in 2020. Maybe.

All things are equal with a top 20 D and a running game at least back in the top 5:

 

& Ruddock starts at Utah;

worstcase   (8-4)     L(Utah, Minn/Mary/PSU, Msu, Osu)

best.             (9-3)     L(Utah, Msu, Osu)

or Morris 

worst            (7-5)     L(Utah, Byu, Minn/Mar/Psu, Msu, Osu)

best.             (11-1)   L(1 upset win and 1 loss vs Msu/Osu)

 

Outliers are top 20 running game with top 10 D could get Ruddock to 11-1, or if the passing game was top 25 we could be undefeated with either QB (Morris more likely).

I don't see Ruddock winning in Utah under many scenarios especially considering he'll only have a few months to work on timing with the receivers plus earn the trust of the lockeroom and he'll be facing a stacked box all day.

If Morris starts vs the Utes and blows chunks, there will still be a good chance Ruddock can get to the B1G schedule with just the one loss if the running game is solid but we're gonna need more than just an efficient passing game to beat Msu, Osu and maybe a couple other B1G teams.

 

We'll know a lot more pretty early as the Utah game is obviously in the bubble category.  Find a way to pull that out, and I think they can, and 8-9 starts to look very realistic, more with some breks.

First of all there isn't an un-winnable game on the schedule. That doesn't mean I'm expecting to be undefeated, but there aren't any games I'm ready to count us out of at this point.

I think it's very important to look at the last two OSU games and compare them to the rest of what we saw in the last two years. To me that's empirical evidence that regardless of all our other problems & issues, we had the raw material and ability to hang with or even outplay the best team in the country.

The main differences I saw last year against the Buckeye's & the rest of our games were all the intangibles like intensity, focus, concentration, effort & heart, along with engaged coaches using unpredictable and creative play calling, including using the FB & TE as weapons for about half the game anyway, and of course the use of Drake Johnson instead of letting him follow in his mom's footsteps all year.

Do you think if the team that showed up and played like they did in Columbus, flying around the field with all that HARD hitting, Drake playing the whole year instead of cheerleading, and being open, unpredictable and aggressive on offense (up until final drive of the half, which killed us), & not self destructing all the time, that they would've lost any of those other games outside of ND/MSU, & maybe not even those?

For most of the last 3 years we scrambled to get the right or enough players on the field all the time, we didn't hustle into the huddle or out of the huddle up to the line and were always on the verge of getting a delay. When we fell behind, when time was slipping away, when it was time to start playing with urgency if there was any chance to win... we walked slowly to the huddle, slowly up to the line as if nothing was different, nothing matters, we don't notice the game situation, we don't care. We don't change play calling, strategy or tactics. We didn't even try to score at the end of halves or other key situations so many times when we didn't have enough time to waste opportunities. THAT SHIT WON'T EXIST ANYMORE, will it?

We seemed to have no plan and no idea what we were doing on special teams. We didn't even HAVE a special teams coach fergodsakes! Now we have one of the two best ST coaches in the land, a punter who will be a weapon, a top kicker coming in who made several FG's over 50 yards including a 57 yarder. I think the best athletes we can find will return kicks & play in schemes that give them a chance to take it to the house at any time.

We were decimated by injuries last year, just the luck of the draw says we shouldn't be hit like that again but we also have one of the top S&C coaches in the country now who should be making us less prone to injury.

Peppers missed basically the whole year. Morgan more than half the year, Johnson missed most of the year due to mysterious coaching decisions, Butt missed a lot of time, Hill started to perform then missed the rest of the year. Isn't there a huge fucking difference in playing without those guys for most of the time and playing with them if they're all back healthy, which it looks like they are?

We lose the Devin's, Jake, Clark & not much else. The Devin's didn't help us last year. Clark didn't do as much as he should have. I think the returnee's from injury give us back more than we lost. I think the Dline guys are really coming on. Peppers, Watson coming on & Lyon's are big upgrades.

Devin showed he could be amazing and win games with his talent in his first few games when DRob went out & a select few other games, but last year, especially trying to play in the pocket, he wasn't winning us any games but he was losing some. So with Rudock just being a steady game manager with a great TD/INT ratio that will be a big upgrade from last year. However, I was told by a player that Harbaugh will try to "make him a little more courageous," so he might be a little more weapony than we think if that works out, and if Morris starts then it will mean he's got it together & is playing better than the decent and steady Rudock and we'll have a reliable backup.

Not only do I think the offensive coaching, the oline coaching, the qb coaching, will be much better in general, but I think they're getting in dramatically more work than before. Here's why, 4 hours on the field instead of two at practices. Double the reps. They were using both field houses & other changes in drills so that there were more reps per amount of time, let's guess that's another 50% increase. Then there's this, one of the Dline players told me that last year in practice when the D was working their asses off the O was doing a lot of standing around & not being worked or drilled as much or as intensely as the D. I asked him if he thought that was because Hoke was a D guy focused on the D & he said probably so.

So I think the O standing around and not working as hard as the D is as gone as it can be. I think between all those factors, and that they have work to do over the summer that the coaches gave them to do on their own, & those efficiencies coming again in fall camp, that the O is probably at least tripling the amount of work they get in between the end of last season and opening game compared to the Hoke regime.

Although Brian Cole didn't show much in the spring game he apparently showed a lot in spring practice and on at least one play in the SG he showed quickness and moves that the other guys we've seen don't have. I think if our receiving corps doesn't show more than it has that Harbaugh won't let Peppers, Cole & the other incoming speedster just sit and watch. I hope we see Pepper's on offense and ST regardless. Furthermore, one of the players told me recently that not only is Drake Johnson healing well (been running and should be starting to cut right about now), but that Drake Harris hamstrings are good now! I'll believe in DH when I see it, but what if he can actually play and be anything like the hype?

The schedule is not that tough, the bad guys are at home, we will play much harder, smarter, be better organized, better taught, better schemes. The coaches won't be giving away games with repeated stupidity.

After the last 7 years I have MFBPTSD so it will take a lot of consistency before I'm fully confident, but I'm totally fully hopeful!

I expect at least 9 or 10 wins but I don't think that's a cap at all, anything's possible! (I'm usually a pessimist!)