Predict the 2014-2015 basketball season

We'll lose to several mediocre teams early in the season, and many fans will be grumbling.  Then the freshmen, with nearly a season of experience under their belts, will begin to come into their own, and the team will make a run at just the right time, make it to the tournament and back to the elite eight.

At this point, given our losses (HALF the guys who played significant minutes), I could see ~ .5000 team that squeeks into the NIT.

OTOH, given that Beilein has coached these M teams so well, I could also see a shared B10 title and Irvin or Wlaton going #1 overall in the '15 draft after a good run in the tourney

But on thing is clear:  Fuck ohio.

It starts in about 5 months.  Beyond that, I'm not sure it matters considering very few people know how the team will look coming tip-off.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think next year's team could be just as good as this year and not take a major step back. I know this cliche has been overused, but who honestly would have thought that we would be an elite 8 team and win the Big Ten by 3 games if, after you saaw Trey and THJ leave, you were also told Mitch would miss basically the entire season?

I think the backcourt next year will be better than this year. 2014 LeVert > 2013 Stauskas. Not saying 2015 LeVert > 2014 Stauskas, but if Caris makes another big jump, it's possible. Then, with the expected jumps from Walton and Irvin, and those two might be a better duo than Walton and LeVert this year.

As for the frontcourt, our losses will probably feel pretty insurmountable at first. However, I don't think anyone thought after the tournament last year that JMo would do what he did this year, but look. I think Donnal, if he starts at the 5 (which is what many of us are expecting) will be better offensively than JMo, and while he may struggle defensively and on the boards, I think the whole "freshmen bigs can't defend" thing is overblown. He just redshirted and spent a year in Camp Sanderson, so he should be ready to go. At the 4, who knows who'll start, but I bet whatever combination of Chatman/Wilson/Irvin/Dawkins(?) used at the four will at least tread water compared to what GRIII was this year unti later in the year, but they'll probably be better offensively.

In short, I expect the ball to keep rolling with Beilein. We'll probably struggle in the non-conference a little bit, especially with defense and rebounding, but by the time B1G season rolls around, I fully expect this team to be an offensive juggernaut that challenges and surpassses their record from this year for Offensive Efficiency on KenPom. Go Blue!

We go undefeated we loose everyone to the NBA. Dakich is MVP

I think we will be a solid top 16-24 team that wins a lot of games but gets smashed by the few teams that actually have solid, talented, big men in the middle...

you have walton, irvin, and levert who I think will all play exceptional basketball  next year.  I think we are underestimating the value of our scorers and have a PG in their second year here...

The only sad face is that Wiscy is gonna probably pummell us unless we shoot lights out.

jdon

I predict that we'll get Virginia as our ACC opponent at home for the B1G/ACC challenge. Wisconsin will get Duke.

We will have subs and it will be crazy.

I think we'll be all right alright.

but then again, that's about where I thought we would be this year when Mitch went out, so what the hell do I know?  That Eurpoean trip could not come at a better time as the frontcourt will need a ton of time to determine roles and develop their games.  I'm not super optomistic, because, such is sports lately, but if any staff can get this team to overachieve it is ours.

its saying the obvious but theres no way to really make an intelligent prediction at this point.  We literally only have 5 guys who have played in college before and 2 of them will almost certainly be bit players.  We have no idea what we're going to get from Chatman and Donnel, 2 guys who likely have to play huge mins, not to mention wilson and Doyle at least one of whom will likely have to play some significant minutes.

All that said it obviously could be a tough year.  We could be ridiculously thin (and frankly weak) up front and really any kind of real injury issues (at any position) could doom this team.  

I think what you'll see is the starting 5 will do really well offensively but have some issues defensively.  When the backups come in, simply due to youth upfront, we'll be holding our breath for those 15 minutes a game and we'll give up leads and the defense will look quite bad.  We'll be praying every game Donnal does not get a quick 2nd foul, etc.

STARTERS

• 5:  Donnal as a RS FR 5 can do similar to what Morgan did in the 2010-2011 team did coming off a redshirt as well. 24 mpg, 9.2 ppg.  He will have to.  But 24 minutes or so will be his ceiling due to fouls and teams coming at him.  Morgan had Eso, Horford to spell him - Donnal will have a true freshman and air unless Max B is playing center at 6'7.
• 4:  Chatman to 2014-2015 has to be what GR3 was to 2012-2013.  That is option 4 in the offense when starters are in, and higher when backups are in.  GR3 did 33 mpg, and 11 ppg.  Chatman will eventually maybe be a 3, 2 or even some 1 but this year has to soak up a ton of minutes at 4.
• 3:   Irvin - you ask him to double his minutes to 30 and double his production and be option #2 in this offense.
• 2:  LeVert - will be option #1, main issue is defense will know focus on him so he has to learn to adjust like Nik had to do mid season
• 1:  Walton Jr - will know the offense better and become more of a scorer due to need.

That is a starting 5 which will find offense and I don't think the rebounding will be that bad actually - the defense however I think we will lose a lot with Mitch/Morgan out and Donnal in - just due to age.  Chatman at 4 could be an improvement vs GR3 on defense and should be on rebounding.

BACKUPS

Really it is all a mystery what we have outside of Spike.  I don't have high expectations from Doyle - IMO he would be redshirted this year to get used to the type of athletes he will be playing but will be forced to be used for 10 minutes a game.  In those minutes he should score some ok but I see a guy who will foul a lot and struggle on the defensive side.  

Wilson is an interesting guy - while he has shot up the recruiting rankings very late he still only averaged 13 ppg as a SR in HS.  You'd think someone so talented would be doing 18-20.  So I think he will backup Chatman for 8 minutes a night and maybe play some 4 nights Irvin is in foul trouble and Chatman has to play the 3 more.

MAAR will be a bit player next year, taking up some Caris minutes when he sits.  Max is Max - he seems content to float around the outside on offense rather than do much inside, will be playing some guys taller than him for maybe 8-12 minutes a night I'd assume; at least he has the bulk (and calves).   If we get Dawkins he backs up Irvin in a role similar to MAAR.

Rebounding I think will be ok, not horrid - defense I am very worried about up front due to youth and the foul troubles that come with big men freshman, RS freshman.  We are going to be playing some games with a lot of "weird" lineups late in the 1st and 2nd halves due to fouls, and even the ones we don't have foul trouble it is still FR and RS FR trying to play defense, which they usually struggle with anyhow.

1.  Wisconsin (1 seed)

2.  Nebraska (3 seed)

3.  Iowa (3 seed)

4.  Michigan (6 seed)

5.  Ohio St. (7 seed)

6.  Minneosta (10 seed)

7.  Maryland (11 seed play-in)

8.  Mich St. (8 seed)

9.  Indiana

10.  Illinois

11.  NW

12.  Penn St.

13.  Purdue

14.  Rutgers

It's going to get ugly down low.  Last years team was 237 in defensive rebounds, 298 in blocks, 303 in offensive rebounds.  We are losing 60% of our rebounding.  I'll be surprised if they make the tournament.

My prediction? Nobody gives Michigan a chance before the season begins and once again John Beilein gets every last bit out of his team.

Why?