# Place your bets: what are the odds we land Dorsey, Parker, or Knight?

Submitted by pdxwolve on January 31st, 2010 at 11:20 PM

Not that I know anything more than I've read, but,

Dorsey = 10% chance
Parker = 60%
Knight = 90%

mscharbo15

I'd flip Knight and Parker in your original post and give Dorsey a 30% chance.

Starko

is that mathematically possible? unless you're saying one of them is 0% likely, regardless of how small each of them is, if they are all greater than zero the probability of getting all three would have to be greater than zero.*

*this assumes independence also.

Starko

their decisions are independent if they all have to make up their mind before learning what the others choose, aren't they? You are correct that if two of them commit and the third decides that's too many safeties and has time to change his mind, then they are not independent.

Isaac Newton

True, statistically, "the probability of getting all three would have to be greater than zero." But a commit by one...then two, would change the individual probability of the third. To zero? I doubt it, but bouje obviously thinks so.

bouje

Until you actually apply it in the real world. And then when you use assumptions and what not the real world screws you.

My point was that I think that we get 1 of them for sure but that there is no way that we can get all 3. All 3 won't happen. But hey being a dick is fun too.

Starko

i'm a dick for pointing out that you may have made a mistake?

the "real world" does not violate mathematical principles. If you think my "assumptions and what not" are incorrect, you could probably point that out without name-calling.

maizenblue92

(please no negbang) but I think it will be none of the above. I honestly think there will be a signing day upset or suprise commitment.

GBOD79

Parker-85
Dorsey-50
Knight-50

MLAWyer

Disagree. Just because there are only two options doesn't mean that there is a 50% chance we sign any one of them. By that logic we have a 50% chance of signing Seantrel Henderson.

octal9

With this view, it's a 50/50 chance that the Earth is currently in the process of getting ejected from its orbit by the gravity of a passing star.

50/50 chance that I'm dating a supermodel.

50/50 chance that tomorrow, Brian will die of a freak combination skydiving/blogging incident.

50/50 chance that the iPad (lol feminine products lol) will be successful.

50/50 chance of more MSU football players allegedly performing crimes.

Somehow, the probability (p) that your take on probabilities is incorrect seems to approach 1 as time (t) increases.

MaizeSombrero

Knight 100% - He said the departure of his potential coach at Rutgers didn't affect him. Obviously, because he's coming to Michigan.

Parker 100% - He said he'd like to get away from home, and there was a Hello: Sean Parker post a while back and I believe everything I read on MGoBlog

Dorsey 0% - I feel like he's already a Seminole.

mstier

Dandy Don has 60:40 across the board FWIW.

I'd say we have a good shot at Parker, and I'm still feeling Knight. Dorsey is probably out of reach.

GBOD79

FWIW Sam is reporting on GBW that the 5 coach in home blew the Dorsey's away. So much so that the parents are all in for Michigan. What that means for Demar is to be seen but it cant hurt to have the parents in our favor.

mwolverine1

Parker: 60/40 Michigan over USC
Knight: 50/50 Michigan and Rutgers
Dorsey: 35/35/30 Michigan and FSU over USC (this is before his official to USC)

ken725

I just looked up Rashad Knight's profile on Rivals. I know they don't put up all offers received, but showed none from the state of Florida. Did he ever garner interest from instate schools?

Parker - 25% UM seems like a good fit but every insider on the west coast is saying USC. If he was going blue he should have done it by now. (60% USC, 5% Cal, 10% Other)

Dorsey - 5% Every word and action coming from Dorsey indicates he is staying in the south. It seems like he took a free trip because he could. (60% FSU, 15% UF, 20% Other)

Knight - 35% Everyone is saying he's headed to Rutgers but UM still seems like the best opportunity to me, and his earlier leanings may resurface. (50% Rutgers, 15% Other)

ken725

Why should Parker have committed by now? I see it would be in your best interest as a Michigan fan for a highly touted recruit to have committed already, but he should commit when he feels like it. I just hope that he picks Michigan when the time comes. Which IIRC, will be early on signing day.

Maize and Blue…

had Hicks going to OSU so that should tell you something. For what its worth I'll take Sam Webb's gut over the so called insiders any day. Parker is Blue.
I wouldn't be surprised if Dorsey ends up here. With the full court press the coaches put on and with help of DRob it is quite possible. Not only that, but the offer for him to also get on the field on the offensive side of the ball has to be enticing. Using your logic, he was supposedly committed to FSU per the so called insiders so why isn't he already a Seminole?
I don't know where you get your info on Knight as he is down to two schools. So who the other 15% is beyond me.
I think we end up with two of the three. My preference would be Parker and Dorsey, but any combination of the three would make me happy.

there are a ton of signing day surprises, so if I'm giving a prediction I'll include a decent chance of the unknown happening.

I WANT these guys to commit, but when their words and actions point the other way...

was that Parker should have displayed more positive sentiment directly after his visit. Parker started off saying he was going out of state and expressing major interest in M and other non-Cali programs....that seems to have waned in the latter part of his recruitment. It seems to me he's going to stay home. Hope I'm wrong.

indianablue

No, he shouldn't have.

SP obviously wants to have his moment (which he can't do if he lets on before that time comes).

AMazinBlue

Parker alone - 90%
Knight alone - 75%
Dorsey alone - 30%
Parker & Knight - 80%
Parker and Dorsey - 62%
Knight & Dorsey - 56%
All 3 - (priceless) 35% Would be a coup of epic proportions!

bleedzblue

Parker has been saying all along that he is waiting till signing day to announce his decision so i'm not shocked he has not committed. As far as percentages..

Parker - 85%

Knight - 70%

Dorsey - 45%

chris connon 79

We will know 100% in T-2days 4Hours and 39 minutes. Why is time moving so slow?