OT: ESPN/Rittenberg article on Air Raid offenses in the B1G
Somehow, I missed that Fickell was making this change at Wisconsin:
For 30 years, the Badgers have won with powerful backs plowing behind gargantuan offensive linemen on clock-eating drives. The Air Raid, marked by quick tempo, receiver-heavy sets and passing proclivity, couldn't be more different from what the Badgers have done. The first time Wisconsin gets the ball Sept. 2 against Buffalo will mark a watershed of sorts for the program, its fans and the Big Ten.
"It'll be a little bit of a culture shock, but hopefully [fans] enjoy it," Longo said. "If we're scoring points, I think they'll enjoy it. If we're winning games, they'll enjoy it. You have your old-school enthusiasts that don't want change, but there seems to be a large part of the Wisconsin contingent that has been waiting for a change."
That seems like an understatement. The quote reminded me of Rich Rod's arrival at Michigan (and Bill Callahan at Nebraska). Maybe they've got the secret to success, or it'll be a glorious disaster. Either way, it'll be interesting to watch.
(The article also covers Purdue, but that honestly doesn't seem like much of a change.)
August 22nd, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
I'm hoping for glorious disaster. Should be interesting watching those corn-fed cheese and brat eating giant OL work in an air raid system.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
I think the question for me is this. Wisconsin was able to make a helluva program on the backs of finding giant sleeper linemen in the farms of northern Wisconsin and Minnesota. They had a knack for IDing running back talent. And they had a defensive system that they could recruit and coach to, all with a bunch of kids who were happy ride the pine for their moment in the sun to play for Wisconsin and Jump Around. So while the air raid will be fun to watch, can they leverage any of their former advantages to make it work? Or will they become just another run of the mill program, entirely dependent on getting top talent to set them apart and being very mediocre in the years between. This is a cultural shift that may abandon the few advantages UW had for a few flashy touchdowns against weaker opponents. I guess we shall see.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^
Exactly. Texas Tech North (or Wazzu East) just seems like an odd strategy when it foregoes structural advantages and still won't be enough to unseat the conference's best.
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^
Let's be real. Wisconsin has a good program, but they've routinely topped out as a severely overmatched bridesmaid in the B1G Championship Game and against better opponents. They were never getting over the hump with the same old thing.
It very well could bite them in the ass like RichRod did at Michigan, but you can't blame a non-blue blood, overachieving program for taking a shot at shaking things up a bit in an attempt to finally take the next step.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:14 PM ^
I pretty much agree. Some people don't realize that a "powerful backs plowing behind gargantuan offensive linemen" approach doesn't always result in "clock-eating drives." Sometimes you go three-and-out and the other team's offense is not "kept off the field." A contrast is often made to the RichRod years, but Wisconsin's "plow" offense also tended to be ineffective against talented teams.
I also agree with much of what NeverPunt wrote (particularly the part of IDing RB talent), but I think it's a myth that their O-linemen are mostly undiscovered gems from the rural north woods. In fact, most of them are from cities of size (Milwaukee, Green Bay, Appleton) in the state and a few have come from other states (but not Minnesota AFAIK).
Also, you can run an effective spread offense with a bunch of under-recruited three star receivers if you have a good QB.
One other thing: I don't see why the Wisconsin culture has to suffer. Fickell is a good coach and I'm sure he understands the value of some parts of their current system.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:20 PM ^
Why does it need to be one or the other though? Its not like we havent struggled when we cant pound the ball either. We have a system and it works, but If we were more balanced we dont go down 21-3 to TCU last year.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:58 PM ^
Michigan historically recruits much better than Wisconsin does. A class ranking of 10-15 year-in and year-out is a big difference from being 30-40+ year-in and year-out. Maybe you can overcome that from one class, but over a 4-5 year span, it can be a world of difference.
August 22nd, 2023 at 10:23 PM ^
If we were more balanced we dont go down 21-3 to TCU last year.
Balance wasn't the problem. This was the problem:
-Running the trick play on 4th and goal and turning it over on downs
-Throwing a pick-six
-Getting screwed out of a TD and then fumbling on the goal line
August 23rd, 2023 at 7:16 AM ^
Heres how our first half drives went:
Turnover on downs at Goalline
Pick six
Punt
Field Goal
Fumble
Punt
Punt
Field Goal
We tried manballing it all first half and had little success after Edwards huge run on the first play.
Also Harbaugh himself has said we will see a more balanced offense this year, I hope to go it's true.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:05 AM ^
we were down 21-3 because a TD was wrongfully overturned before Mullins fumbled
the air raid heavily depends on its rhythm, a balanced offense has a totally different rhythm.
August 23rd, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
We still would have been down even with the overturned touchdown counting.
If we had opened up the offense before we absolutely had to in the second half we could have destroyed them.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:21 PM ^
I don't know if you were reading MGoBlog in the late Carr years, but that's basically what got people excited about Rich Rod: the game had evolved, and Michigan was too big/slow/conservative to be competitive against the new guard, so it needed to try something radically different.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:24 PM ^
Agreed Michigan was incapable of defending basic spread concepts, from the 04 MSU game (as Alex mentioned in MGoRevisited) to 06 OSU, The Horror, and the Dennis Dixon game. Rich Rod obviously didn't solve the issue, but if he had been able to bring Jeff Casteel with him, he might have.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:56 PM ^
Hard to know what would have happened but it seems that the pendulum can only swing so far in the opposite direction all at once. Fickel seems like a much better coach than RichRod so I kind of doubt he'll push his cards all in on Air Raid in Year 1. If he finds a good balance then he'll be able to compete in the West. After divisions go away, however, he'll need more than a balanced offense to remain competitive.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:59 PM ^
Not getting Casteel really hurt Rich Rod but IMO the thing that really doomed him was not getting Terrelle Pryor. Our defense was not good but Pryor would have carried the team to wins. Instead he went to our rival and we were stuck with QBs not meant to run a spread.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
had the portal existed back then RichRod’s first year could’ve been much better and shafer might’ve worked out as DC.
August 23rd, 2023 at 12:02 AM ^
Not trying to get technical but Wazzup doesn't run the Air Raid anymore it is the Run and Shoot. Similar but not the same and pretty sure TT doesn't run it anymore. But they are more pass offenses then run. But since Leach was the Air Raid guru they still get named as schools that run it even thought they technically don't. Just thought I would throw that out there. USC runs an Air Raid offense and they are coming to the Big Ten.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:33 AM ^
Yeah, especially since neither TT or WSU had any kind of history of success, so why not try the Mike Leach system. Wisconsin on the other hand had a 30 year pedigree they're throwing away. I just don't see them recruiting well enough for this to make them better than they've been (and honestly it seems most likely it'll make them worse). They could find the hidden gems for the power running system, but I'm not so sure they'll be able to find athletic receivers like that...
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:08 PM ^
Wisconsin has obviously had a rich tradition of offensive line talent that has fit thier scheme very well. Definitely interested to see how well they adjust to blocking in space required by the air raid offense. Thier defense may spend a lot of time on the field this season as the offense adjusts.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
Yeah, that's why it seems so similar to the Rich Rod transition, which happened the same year Jake Long went first overall after anchoring a certifiably-non-spread OL.
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:19 PM ^
It's definitely similar. Kind of strange that Fickell is a Tressel disciple and going to throw it all over the field. Can't imagine the receiver talent is there to make this a smooth transition either.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
Seems like they're trying to out-happy happy.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
I hope it works out and they'll be recruiting more OSU-style players and Mich can have all the O-line and RB recruits.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
Oh, that's devious. I like it.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
There's room for only so many O linemen on the field at a time, especially when you run 7 TE sets.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:32 PM ^
Nah, we'll whiff on all them because we're "transformational not transactional."
In that we'll transform the narrative every year around why we haven't won a ship since '97.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
we can certainly take some from the portal after this season.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
This is like so many other failing businesses, sports teams, and service organizations: make a dramatic change and hope for the best. It’s simple and distracting from underlying problems. In the case of Wisconsin, that would be an ossified AD (Barry Alvarez and company) and program. It’s a popular approach to problem solving, but only works if a) it’s the actual problem and b) the underlying organization agrees and is willing to commit to the change. I like Fickell, but this a huge ask at Wisconsin.
August 23rd, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
It's almost all upside though. If you win with it, you are a genius, if you lose, the staff will be gone, but the "old way" is gone forever. Even if someone comes back and "brings the Way Things Used to Be" back, it has to be rebuilt with new parts and new ways of thinking.
Bureaucracies are bureaucracies wherever you find them, and they all need blown up every so often.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
Even if Wisconsin's new offense is drastically different, the difference between this transition and Rich Rod is Wisconsin has a QB to run the offense. Tanner Mordecai was an elite G5 QB at SMU running a pass-heavy scheme.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
True. No doubt that the transition looks better managed.
August 22nd, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
And they still have defensive talent in the system and probably good defensive coaches. Even if this doesn’t go well for Wisconsin there are probably a dozen ways it’s a better transition than Rich Rod was.
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:29 PM ^
Their defensive coordinator is Mike Tressell, who I had never heard of until Fickell hired him at Cincinatti. I'll bet you can guess who Mike's brother is. [EDIT: Uncle. Misread his Wikipedia page]
Fickell bringing him along forced out longtime (and excellent) Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, who landed at Illinois.
This coaching change has a lot of red flags, IMO.
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:37 PM ^
You hadn't heard of Mike Tressel?? He coached at MSU 2007-2020 ...
And can we guess who his brother is? I know who his dad's brother is, but not sure about Mike's brother.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:20 PM ^
I guess I don't keep track of MSU's position coaches.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:26 PM ^
FWIW he was the D-coordinator at MSU after Narduzzi left.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:55 PM ^
With Leonhard and Bert, Illinois looks to be the new Wisconsin. I can see them and Nebraska raising the bar for the soon to be former B1G West.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:15 PM ^
Bert's run schemes aren't quite what Wisky ran under the last regime. Similar, but there are differences.
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
Just like Andre Ware with the Lions!
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:22 PM ^
Ware was drafted before the *second* season Detroit ran the Shoot.
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:21 PM ^
This is why I think Wisconsin ranked in the top 20 is ludicrous, this kind of transition almost always starts out bumpy, as we know from the RichRod years. And it's not just the offensive philosophy and coaching they're turning over, it's the entire defensive staff too.
Maybe they'll be good by the end of the year, but no way they're a top-25 squad until they prove it with a few good wins.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
I don’t know. Fickell is a decent coach, and is very experienced in the B1G. I doubt he’s going to approach the job like “I need to change EVERYTHING.”
The Lessons of RichRod (TM) are thus:
1. Do not neglect your OL and DL. Big guys can still move quickly.
2. Do not force an offensive or defensive system on coordinators who cannot teach nor run it.
3. If it looks like the departing head coach, the regents, and the alumni are going to undermine you at every turn…don’t take the job.
I cannot imagine that Fickell looks at huge, strong linemen and thinks “don’t need those anymore.” An Air Raid with Wisconsin OL could be a very scary prospect.
Oh, and long drives are only good if you pay them off with points. Shameless plug: go check out my recent Diary. The Harbaughffense is TERRIBLE at long, methodical drives.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:02 PM ^
It's much easier to recruit one good running back than 4 good wide receivers every year.
August 23rd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
It's probably a bad idea to re-litigate the RichRod Flame Wars of 2011, but...I think the benefit of history, including his later coaching gigs, show that the VAST majority of his problems were self-induced, not due to lack of support, no Casteel, etc.
Anyway, maybe Fickell has what it takes to remake the Badgers successfully (he's proven that he's a good coach) but it would seem to my amateur eye that it will take at least a couple years to install the system and get the right players in place.
August 22nd, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
Purdue is already OSU-lite. Wisconsin going this route makes them better than Purdue (which they already are), but obviously not OSU.
Fickell has been a good defensive coach so I'd expect them to be solid there, but again, practicing against air raid all off-season may not prepare a team for trench warfare - like we've seen with UM vs. OSU the last couple seasons.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:00 PM ^
I gotta believe given his big ten roots that he wouldn’t be as dumb assed stupid as RR was. Then again? All I care is if Wiscy beats OSU, and they dam well could.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:19 PM ^
Waterboy is going to get doused with stout B1G defenses, imo.
August 22nd, 2023 at 8:56 PM ^
So, Fickell is going to install something kinda similar to the OSU offense?
Hmmm. I wonder why he would do that?
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^
This is going to be an interesting story. Air Raid doesn't look the same everywhere. Very unlikely we see a Mike Leach version - massive OL splits that make it impossible to run pullers.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:15 PM ^
The quick ouster of Paul Chryst was extremely absurd. He had a few hard years, but he has done a lot with less when compared to other programs...
That being said, i'm happy that Fickell did not end up at MSU.