stephenrjking

April 16th, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^

This has all the markings of a tragic story now in mid-plunge. The fact that he's not even going to the NBA is startling given the hype he carried early in high school. (Edit: corrected by others below, he's not eligible).

It's one thing to develop physically early and then level off as the rest of the world catches up to you, but Emoni got an extreme level of hype that probably did his circle no favors in making decisions for his future. Creating an "academy" specifically for him to play was a pretty audacious action that's hard to imagine occurring for a guy that wasn't getting magazine covers, and there is at least an argument to be made that it had a directly negative effect on his development as a player. Among other things.

It's fun to root against people who are too big for their britches and all, and there's some schadenfreude here... but I suspect that within a year or two this story could be really sad, and I might start rooting for him just to get things straightened out and find a way to make it in the NBA, life, and so on. 

We'll see. Not good signs so far. 

stephenrjking

April 16th, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^

Huh. Didn't realize that his reclassification didn't change that; thanks for the correction. 

Still strange to me that he can't stick on. Even a year early. 

Player A:
32 minutes/game 38.4 FG% 35% 3% 4.0 REB 1.4 AST 10.1 PPG

Player B:
23.4 minutes/game 38:6 FG% 32.9 3% 3.3 REB 1.3 AST 9.7 PPG

Player B is Emoni Bates.

Player A is Caleb Houstan. 

MGolem

April 16th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^

Not sure where he ends up but I can not fathom him playing a year under Izzo and being yelled at for anything and everything. He is going pro after this upcoming season no matter where he goes so a school with a player friendly coach and the ability to star makes sense. I’m guessing his ego won’t permit him to go to a school like Dayton where lots of transfers seem to thrive so maybe an SEC school like Auburn or Alabama.  

bronxblue

April 16th, 2022 at 5:47 PM ^

I assume he'll either wind up at a Kentucky/LSU type team (a nice bag game with dubious history of reining in malcontents) where he'll get some national exposure or he goes to a major G5 league (like the AAC) where (he assumes) he can put up big numbers.  

But honestly, this feels like a story that ends with him getting drafted late in the first/early 2nd, scuttling in the G league, and being overseas by his early 20s.  It's really sad.

MGlobules

April 16th, 2022 at 6:23 PM ^

I dunno. There's sad where you eat well, and end up going in the late first round of the NBA, and sad where bombs are raining around you or your not eating in East Africa b c wheat isn't growing in Ukraine. Respectfully--as with Stephenjrking's post above--I'll withhold judgement. Kids are pretty resilient, and he's making a business decision and moving to a new hotel. 

stephenrjking

April 16th, 2022 at 6:56 PM ^

One hopes.

But we've seen stories like this before.

Not all kids "turn out ok." 

One hopes that those who have influence on Emoni are seeing the potential danger and taking steps to make sure he's on the right track. And perhaps leaving Memphis is actually a step in that direction--his camp sees issues and wants to stabilize things, looking for a place that's good for Emoni instead of good for business. Perhaps. But it's hard not to see at least a few alarm bells. Next Lebron to also-ran freshman on a .500 AAC team.

One might argue that it's unfair to scrutinize him just because some other people hyped him up as the next Lebron, but part of the point is that the hype likely had a direct effect on his development and/or was a product of those around him who are the primary influences on that development. So the scrutiny is a part of the hype that is an intrinsic part of his story. There is some evidence that suggests that the people influencing Emoni have made unwise decisions. Who is making the choices here? What is the reasoning?

MGlobules

April 16th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^

Not quarrelling with the basics, just wondering how much one has really failed if they go in the late first round, as still projected? Yes, it's eye-opening that he's on the move. . . 

I always think of myself, within my own profession, or any professional--let's take an architect. They may not be designing Manhattan skyscrapers, but if they are just doing what they love at a high level, have they failed? Our conception of when a player has failed wants a little scrutiny. These are exquisitely gifted people, and we. . . kinda enjoy either crying for them or mocking them.  

stephenrjking

April 16th, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^

These are fair points. My concern isn't so much about a player being "only a good NBA player." That's a disappointment given the hype, but just a disappointment given the hype. If he has a good season, goes late first-round, and puts together a 5-10 year career as a rotation NBA player with no real baggage, my concerns are unfounded even if he isn't the player people suggested he was a couple of years ago.

The concern I have is that the people influencing him haven't necessarily had good perspective on what his longer-term best interests are, and that can be dangerous. In a bigger way than "doesn't shoot as well as he should" isn't. 

bronxblue

April 16th, 2022 at 9:38 PM ^

I don't wish him ill will, and obviously there are worst outcomes than not living up to outrageous expectations but still making tons of money playing a sport you enjoy.  But I'm more saying that it doesn't sound like he's been getting the best guidance for a while now, and one consistent theme seems to be that if he isn't a star he moves somewhere else.  That's not always a winning strategy.

stephenrjking

April 16th, 2022 at 9:59 PM ^

This is where we (and that "we" definitely includes me, particularly in my post upthread) are just speculating. It *looks* like he's just looking for greener pastures, again, as he (or rather, in my opinion anyway, the people guiding him) have been doing for years now. So, didn't have a great time in Memphis, Penny Hardaway isn't coaching up his prospects well, assume it's the circumstances and can't possibly be us, go somewhere else.

But: if, at some point, the alarm bells are going off in the Bates camp that the future they've been banking on is now in serious jeopardy (and if he looks like the same player next year, the NBA is going to get *really* cool on him), they might decide it's time to change their approach. Time to find new influences, get Emoni connected with someone who knows how to develop a player and a man that can succeed in the NBA.

And in that hypothetical, that might also lead to a decision to transfer away from Memphis, because it's not going to properly prepare him to have a prosperous career, and look for a place where he can really take that next step. In a way that Penny Hardaway and his dad aren't able to do. 

So, we'll see. Now, even a decision like that could look kinda slimy - a lot of guys that are good at coaching players also run dirty programs - but if they're looking for real development, the option exists.

If.

ILL_Legel

April 16th, 2022 at 9:01 PM ^

I am not aware of any facts to indicate Emoni has a poor work ethic.  I have only heard how hard he works.  Is there info I am missing about his work ethic?

For sure I think bad decisions were made about his development (send him to Montverde or IMG instead of creating a school) but I think he wasn’t physically or mentally ready for college ball.  Should not have reclassified.  He is going to put in the work but is he good enough to be a superstar?  That remains to be seen.

NJblue2

April 17th, 2022 at 1:48 PM ^

I think people question the work ethic, because he's pretty much remained the same for the last couple years skillwise and he seems to run from challenges (fight with Akins, problems and then leaving Memphis). He may be a hard worker, but it seems like whenever you leave or get mad when the slightest thing doesn't go your way, you might not be working too hard to change that.

TheBlueAbides

April 19th, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^

True, but he also seems to have individuals leading him to these things. Maybe lack of development was due to the fact they basically created a prep school to feature him instead of to improve his game. I understand the point of running, but there is a lot to be said for the people guiding him. Would be interesting to see what would have happened had he played at an IMG or Monteverd, and not had those advising him try to clear a path. Maybe the same results, or maybe a guy who kept elevating his game at the same rate as many players at those schools. Will never know 

Ronswanson13

April 16th, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^

I’m rooting for the kid and think it’s weird that so many are seemingly and proudly writing him off already. He turned 18 just four months ago. He’s going to be a pro.

njvictor

April 16th, 2022 at 9:05 PM ^

Bates is easy to hate on because he’s an entitled kid who has underachieved but it’s kinda sad. Had immense talent at a young age, has bad people in his camp, didn’t continue developing, ended up at a bad school for his development l, and is now in the portal. If he had transferred to IMG or Montverde after his sophomore year and not reclassified, I think he’d be in a much bette position rn