Lewan #9 overall, #2 OL on McShay's first 2014 mock draft
Little early for mock drafts, but Todd McShay's first edition of his 2014 mock draft is up ($, LINK) and he has Lewan going #9 overall to the Bills, the second OL off the board. Here's what he had to say about Lewan:
Analysis: This scenario works out well for Buffalo. The Bills need to upgrade the O-line and provide QB EJ Manuel with more time to throw, and Lewan could immediately help solidify this unit. Lewan isn't an exceptional athlete but he has enough quickness to get by when coupled with his physicality and mean streak. I've written a few times this season that even though Lewan doesn't always look like a prototype left tackle, he is very effective in run blocking and pass protection. Safety might be seen as a bigger need for Buffalo, but typically if you have a chance to take an offensive tackle over a safety in the first round, you do it.
This is pretty similar to the evaluation McShay gave him last April, when he had Lewan also going #9 overall to the Chargers:
The Chargers must protect QB Philip Rivers better. They hope the healthy return of LT Jared Gaither will fill one spot, but they would still need a right tackle in that scenario and Lewan would fit the bill. He has the length to be effective in pass protection, and he's a tenacious run-blocker who gets under the skin of defenders.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:28 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 9:28 AM ^
Maybe I'm biased but for a big LT, I think Lewan is a pretty good athlete. He showed he can move pretty well against Ohio when they had him running down the field blocking on the large number of screens UM ran.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:33 AM ^
yea Ive always heard about the team rave about his athletcism. We'll see come combine day I guess.
I think this draft is weaker than people are giving it credit for. With a great combine/Senior Bowl performance, top 3-5 won't be out the question for him imo.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:52 AM ^
that at least 3 if not 4 of the top five picks are going to be QBs. Especially now with the rookie contract slotting, QB needy teams are more willing than ever to jump up for their guy, and with the rule changes the past 10 years or so, QB is more important than ever in the NFL.
Last year was a bit of an anomaly, and this year the media has been pushing QB depth for so long that they're going to build up 4 guys whether they deserve it or not. Their narrative has already changed quite a bit since mariota dropped out, and Murray and Mettenberger cot hurt. Now Blake Bortles is a top 5 guy? I'm skeptical
December 19th, 2013 at 10:31 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 11:27 AM ^
manziel, blake bortles from UCF, derreck carr from fresno state are all high prospects and aj mccarron could go high depending on his combine (not projected to go in the 1st from what ive seen this is just a hunch on my part).
December 19th, 2013 at 11:02 AM ^
Next year, maybe. This year, no chance in hell.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:39 AM ^
I upvoted the thread and don't mean this against the OP, but these guys who make mock drafts are so ridiculous. I love seeing how wrong just about every guy is.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:48 AM ^
...says the guy who yesterday was arguing about George Campbell without realizing that Campbell is a 2015 prospect.
It's easy to be wrong on those drafts, because one wrong selection near the top or an unexpected trade can throw off the rest of the draft.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:54 AM ^
It's damn near impossible and done for entertainment purposes.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:58 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 8:38 PM ^
I'm pretty sure he makes them because ESPN pays him a lot of money to do it...
December 19th, 2013 at 9:56 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 10:00 AM ^
Is that while McShay may not know everything, when it comes to draft predictions he probably knows WAY more than you, and me, and most people.
The one-eyed man is king in the world of Teh Internetz.
December 19th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^
because it's a prediction of where a prospect should be picked. It doesn't show anybody's scouting prowness on evaluating prospects. One trade up or one surprise pick, the mock draft goes off the window because it changes everything. Look at his mock draft accuracy, he's not good in that area.
December 19th, 2013 at 1:14 PM ^
Nobody's mock draft accuracy is any good, because it depends on too many variables.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:08 AM ^
It means you're a person who knows nothing, and you're laughing at other people who know nothing (except they probably do). I'm sure you're an expert at something, though - photography, Harry Potter, being a mechanic, flying planes, whatever.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:14 AM ^
They're entirely different, mate. Not knowing George is a 2015 recruit is completely different than making wrong predictions. These guys are guessing. I simply did not know he was a 2015 recruit.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:16 AM ^
Yes.
One is making an educated guess about the future.
The other is entering an argument lacking the necessary information.
December 19th, 2013 at 11:36 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 6:32 PM ^
I love reading the comments when he catches people posting before they actually think of what they are saying.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:35 AM ^
For purposes of comparison, here is CBS and their thoughts on the draft (LINK). So far, they've only picked the first round, I believe.
Rob Rang has Lewan going at #12 to the Steelers and the 4th OT taken, and Dane Brugler went with Lewan at #14 to the Rams as the 2nd OT taken. I would think that anything perhaps #9 to #13 and either the 2nd or 3rd OT off the board might be pretty common as the mock rankings begin to appear in droves.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:42 AM ^
Jake Long is with them right now, as their LT -- at least according to their official depth chart. I wonder what Mr Brugler thinks will happen to Jake if they do pick up Taylor with their pick?
December 19th, 2013 at 10:35 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 10:38 AM ^
they certainly could use one.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:49 AM ^
Some have speculated that Lewan will move to RT in the NFL. I imagine that if the Rams take him this will be the case.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 12:18 PM ^
....too soon, sorry guys and gals.
December 19th, 2013 at 3:06 PM ^
I've heard a lot of teams are looking at Lewan as a RT and in some cases, they would play him at RT until the starter at LT is gone. At that point obviously he would either become the LT or the team would draft/sign another tackle.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:42 AM ^
Well then if true that Lewan didn't change his draft status from last year he cost himself a LOT of money by staying in school and not going pro last year. The estimated signing bonus for the ninth pick in last year's draft was 7.5MM meaning an absolutely hyper-conservative portfolio paying 5% interest would've earned 380K and that doesnt take into account his actual salary.
The economic arguement for staying in school and not coming out is always "improve your draft position" and hence, your income. But if you don't improve your draft slot then the time value of money, plus the relatively short average professional career, equals a very costly decision.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:51 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 9:51 AM ^
What you're saying makes sense, but I think if Lewan cared about money that much, he would have left last year.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:53 AM ^
Your $380k totally neglects taxes, both on federal and state, and ignores that different states/cities have different taxes. So were he go to a city with lower taxes than he would have went last year, he may actually earn MORE.
December 19th, 2013 at 9:58 AM ^
And.....he could also go to a city with higher taxes which would mean it could even be worse financially than I projected and remember - 5% is insanely conservative given how well the market has performed over the past year.
Look - I'm not saying he made the right or wrong decision - only Taylor can answer that. I'm just saying that when a player makes the decision to stay it does not always translate into a better draft slot and hence, better money.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:05 AM ^
Don't NFL paychecks get taxed by some goofy system based on the tax of where that week's game is played?
December 19th, 2013 at 10:12 AM ^
Generally, their income is taxed primarily based upon where their team is based, but some jurisdictions impose a "jock tax" on players from away teams. But a majority of that tax is credited back to the players by their home jurisdiction.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:14 AM ^
You pay taxes based on where you earn your money. It just so happens that pro athletes earn their money in a bunch of places every year.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:19 AM ^
This is why Lebron took his talents to South Beach instead of NYC. No state income tax.
December 19th, 2013 at 11:39 AM ^
Us tax geeks call that state apportionment.
December 19th, 2013 at 12:58 PM ^
As a consultant who travels out of state almost every week (40 out of 52 weeks this year), this does happen. We're advised to indicate the states in which we primarily work every day. I don't know what thresholds the states use (number of days, estimated income, etc) to determine whether or not to send you a W-2, but one year, I had 3 W-2s from IL, NY, and GA.
The nice thing is that you can adjust your home state income by the amount estimated for the other state(s), so if I live in IL and make $100k of taxable income and NY is charging me income tax on $20k, I can adjust my IL taxable income by that amount (or that's how I remember it working, anyway).
Given the large player salaries, I'd be surprised if most states with income tax didn't try to tax players (goes for other pro sports, also).
December 19th, 2013 at 2:07 PM ^
Just wait until Toronto and London add NFL teams
December 19th, 2013 at 9:55 AM ^
Forget those other replies, just tell me where I can get a 5% return!
December 19th, 2013 at 10:04 AM ^
My IRA is up 17.9% over the past year.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:17 AM ^
Oh, IRA. I thought you said ERA.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:21 AM ^
So funny it hurts.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:32 AM ^
This is a joke, right?
December 19th, 2013 at 9:56 AM ^
you got an investment advisor? I need an investment advisor...or will once this next degree comes through and I start my new career
December 19th, 2013 at 9:58 AM ^
December 19th, 2013 at 9:58 AM ^
I'm sure he knew he was forgoing a tremendous amount of money. On the other hand, you can never really recapture the feeling of being in college...whether you're a scholarship athlete or a just a regular student like I was.
December 19th, 2013 at 10:39 AM ^
Maybe he wanted to be in college and play college football for another year? You can't quantify that. What's the cost if down the road sometime he regrets not staying that additional year?