jbibiza

January 30th, 2016 at 9:47 AM ^

How come Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Northwestern are fighting over Swenson? Crystal Balz say he will commit to Oklahoma which ain't chopped liver.... but if JH doesn't want him then neither do I.

Joined: 10/08/2009

MGoPoints: 7385

Cope

January 30th, 2016 at 10:23 AM ^

Junior year tape? Harbaugh's reputation has become so strong top tier programs are willing to take a chance on his hand-me-downs?

I also wonder if Swenson was a verge prospect because of numbers, package deal possibilities, and a falling stock from his senior year but one who really is still quite good. More Michigan's specific situation with him than his top potential.

Joined: 10/07/2010

MGoPoints: 2648

rob f

January 30th, 2016 at 9:48 AM ^

With HARBAUGH, the pattern seems to be that when one door closes, doors #1, #2, and #3 all have great prize packages. He's a modern-day Monty Hall.

Joined: 11/11/2010

MGoPoints: 194359

MetricSU

January 30th, 2016 at 2:50 PM ^

If Monty always shows an empty door, his showing an empty door cannot affect the probability that your initial choice is correct. So that door still has a probability 1/3 of being a winner. But that means the probability of the remaining door has to be 2/3 (because one of the doors you didn't pick has been eliminated).

As you say, the math (Bayes' Theorem) verifies that you should switch.

Joined: 08/22/2010

MGoPoints: 102

PetoskeyBlue

January 30th, 2016 at 9:51 AM ^

What does Northern California have that Ann Arbor doesn't?.... Well Ann Arbor is still a wonderful city regardless. All the best to you young man, sad to see you go.

Joined: 01/11/2016

MGoPoints: 282

mgowake

January 30th, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^

I live in Palo Alto. The weather is mind blowing. Football game day experience is much weaker than AA. But I suspect this is about weather and academics. Stanford honestly speaking is the more prestigious school. I am of course very grateful for everything my Michigan degree has done for me, of course.



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Joined: 11/23/2009

MGoPoints: 1062

CorkyCole

January 30th, 2016 at 10:39 AM ^

I wouldn't necessarily call that "coming out of nowhere." I think a few of those will come out of somewhere, and a few will be obvious. There's the Cali duo (what I would consider a "somewhere"), Gary, Murphy, Lavert Hill, Nordin, Stewart... Those seven wouldn't be "shockers" at this point from what's been rumored, and I believe they're all announcing on NSD. I'm guessing there's a few silents out of that group at the very least. Now the VV rumor mill sounds legit.

I'm not expecting anything way out of left field, but I wouldn't be surprised based off the recent NSD hype if we lock up some of the uncertains like Fuller and the Cali duo. Fuller isn't a NSD guy, but to me he seems the only obvious choice that would be considered a "shocker" by some. I really don't know how we could fill in any more surprises without either bumping off some of the other guys or going to a higher number than what's been thrown out there for the class.

Joined: 06/13/2011

MGoPoints: 4498