CFP Updated Standings

Yes but TCU is out of quality wins left on their resume, and so is OSU other than the hope for a 1 loss Nebraska or 2 loss Wiscy in the Big 10 championship game.   ASU v Oregon will be a play in game if both can continue to win, but either way the Pac 12 should get 1.  

FSU has the potential for upset vs Miami or Florida, even Vegas has this week's game vs Miami as a near toss up.  They have not been impressive for most of the year - with 1 loss I think they are out.  Their squeaker win vs ND looks a lot worse after ASU smacked ND this week. 

I do think Bama winning out and Miss State only losing to Bama opens the door for 2 SEC teams.  We'll see.  1 loss Miss State (only loss to Bama and a few quality wins) would be up against 1 loss OSU or 1 loss TCU or 1 loss Baylor.  I think they'd give that to Miss State.

I'd have to see who Minnesota beat - quality wins matter.  Who are Marshall's top 3 wins vs Minnesota's sort of thing.  I think on another thread someone said Marshall's opponents winning percentage is in the low .400s.  That said if Marshall goes undefeated they'd be in one of the 4 playoff committee bowls based on all the projections - Minnesota would not.

I think this is a moot point - the BIg 10 west is very back loaded...Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska have largely avoided each other.  It would be like putting OSU MSU UM and PSU games all together in the last 3 weeks of the year (if UM and PSU were any good). 

My gut tells me Wiscy beats Nebraska and wins the west.  If Stave can be even mediocre they have the best defense in the west combined with the best running attack. 

TCU's main threat is Bama beating Miss State and Miss State winning out.  Then it would be Miss State vs TCU for that last spot.  TCU has no championship game to benefit from.  TCU has no quality wins left to be had on their schedule.

OSU only has 1 quality win all year since the Big 10 is horrid, their OOC was horrid and they dont play Nebraska or Wisconsin in the regular season.  So they can have AT MOST 2 (Nebraska or Wisconsin in the championship game) quality wins.  TCU already has KSU, Oklahoma, West Virginia (West VA is not great but gave Bama a good game and it was a road victory in Morgantown)  OSU's 3rd best win is going to be Maryland.  Or Michigan.  At home.   And TCU's loss at last minute to Baylor is way better than OSU's albatross loss.  So OSU is frozen out barring multiple major upsets.

TCU's other threat is Baylor - who has Kansas State to finish the year.  It could be enough to leapfrog TCU as that would be a quality win.  But then Baylor v Miss State (if they only have 1 loss) is the debate.

So for most controversy we want Bama to beat Miss State, and win out.  We want Miss State to lose this week v Bama and then win out.  We want Baylor to beat KSU.  And have FSU lose.  That will create a huge debate between TCU v Baylor v FSU v Miss State for spots in the playoffs ;)  Only Bama and Oregon/ASU winner would be locked in, in this scenario.

As of *this week* TCU has a win over a top 25 team in their OOC (Minnesota baby!).  And they have a win vs a Power 5 conference team with a winning %.  

Baylor's non conf are all teams of the like of App State.  That said a win by Baylor over KSU combined with their head to head win over TCU I believe would move them ahead of TCU in the last week of the year as long as they beat KSU by a similar margin to how TCU did this week.

And Illinois beat Minnesota.  Some of the strange results of the year for sure.  But Wisconsin was playing a converted safety at QB for the first half of the year with Stave having the yips.  Still a strange game - I'd have to look at the game summary to see what happened, maybe NW had some pick 6s or something.