Bill C Army Preview
Good read to get an idea of our Week 2 opponent. Service academies are notoriously hard to project in S&P+ due to play style, recruiting oddities and more, but Army seems to break the system even more. They won 11 games last year despite being 84th in S&P+, which Bill C attributes to the fact that Army went for it on 4th down all the time. They faced 25 4th and 1's last year, including ones on their own side of the field, went for it 23 times and converted 21.
Definitely read the article as it's a good preview, but this can also hopefully drive home the fact that Army does NOT return 21/22 starters as many have said. They lose 5 front seven guys on defense alone.
I have my concerns, but they involve the offense stinking (I'm growing bullish about it from what we're seeing leak out of the administration) or Brown biffing the prep to the game. Given his history of successfully defending the option, that's not as big of a concern to me.
Saying "it's going to be Air Force all over again" requires one to accept the premise that similar conditions for Michigan exist compared with previous encounters. That is to say, if an aspect of Michigan's team is truly mediocre, the game could be a problem. And it could be. If Brown can't handle the option, we're in trouble. If our front seven is so pitiful that even a physically inferior OL that uses blocking schemes specifically designed to counter physically superior opponents can push it around, we're in trouble. If our offense can't score 30 points against a physically overmatched team, we're in trouble.
But then we're in trouble in a lot of other games, too.
EDIT: since we're on the topic, Brian wrote extensively about Michigan's tactical flaws in the 2012 Air Force game in the UFR. The key bit is written right after the play-by-play analysis concludes. Here's the quote he pulled from a blog following Navy's football team:
The biggest surprise in this game was how poorly Michigan defended the option. They spent most of the game in a 3-deep 4-4, with the safety assigned to the pitch man. Sound familiar? No wonder Air Force was able to move the ball. After playing both Navy and Air Force several times in his career, you’d think that Brady Hoke would have known better.
The premise is that Mattison, pressed for time, "ran home to momma" and pulled out a default scheme designed to defend the wishbone, which doesn't work against the flexbone. Long-time obsessives will recall that Don Brown, in contrast, concluded a 2017 spring presser by explaining that he was going to study Air Force's offense. In the spring. So pressed for time would not be the issue. And, hopefully, won't be this fall, either.
"Relax Jonsey, you sold me"
When we played Air Force in 2017 under Don Brown's defense, we beat them 29-13....we gave up 1 pass for 64 yards and 168 rushing yards on 49 attempts. Hoke/Mattison gave up 417 yards to Air Force in 2012 with 290 coming on the ground. Even with some new guys on the DL you can't really expect a Don Brown defense to look that bad against a service academy.
And let's put that 2017 team in context. Finished 8-5. Couldn't keep a QB upright. Struggled to throw the ball under 1st-year Pep...
…oh, and the defense was replacing pretty much every starter sans Peppers from the 2016 squad. Both corners, both safeties, a LB, and all four up front.
"There’s something about Army"
What's the spread?
Concern -21.
It's barely even May and we've already had 2 threads about a non-conference football game in September.
Here's the thing about Army: They run a wrinkle of the Paul Johnson school of Triple Option. It's not the same as Navy, but it's similar. It's incredibly different than what Air Force runs. But that isn't important, what is important, is that Don Brown has played Paul Johnson several times over his career. It was awhile ago, but he has experience against coaching against this school of option. It still comes down to execution and discipline, but he's not going to be going in without experience. This lessens my concern than if we had an old former NFL DC running the defense.
In 2006 I was stoplossed by the Army, in revenge, I hope Michigan gets lots of stops and gives Army a loss. Also, something about concern or something.
Edit: Nevermind, now I remember what Stop-lossing is. I missed the first wave in the first Gulf War by a few month's thankfully.
Hey everybody we are going to beat Army.
I am concerned about OFF the following week, though. They return 23 out of 22 starters on defense alone.
That's a shocking statistic!
Legit...OFF is badass...got to be concerned with that one.
Yeah, it's a good preview for a team that is always a bit of an unknown going into the season. They are pretty solid but I also get a whiff of Northwestern 2018 off of them, where a team with mediocre numbers wins a number of games because they went 4-1 in 1-score games. That bowl win looks great on paper but Houston was about as checked-out a team I'd seen a year in that game.
They'll be a tough team, but it's still a service academy and there is a ceiling for those teams.
I played at Army in the 90’s and follow the team pretty closely. Finishing the season with another win over Navy, hoisting the CIC, a blowout of a short handed Houston team in the bowl game, and a national ranking was pretty nice relative to expectations last year.
In general, Monken has the program at the highest level since 1996. Entering year 6, I rarely hear anything even remotely negative said about him. The recruiting is finally outpacing USNA and USAFA, and the talent at both West Point and USMAPS (West Point Prep School) is outstanding versus norms. Hopkins is a legit option QB that can throw better than any recent Army QB I can think of. He tends to make really good decisions and takes care of the ball, but also sustains a lot of hits. Walker is a good RB/SB, but I think the running backs are largely interchangeable. They have a good system on offense and will usually execute it very well. Penalties (especially the chop block rule outside the tackle box) and turnovers take on even added importance as operating behind the chains is incredibly difficult for Army.
The loss of Brinson and Nachtigal on defense will really hurt. Nachtigal in particular was a playmaker. He gave the defense exactly what they needed. A third down sack, an interception, or a forced fumble. Army just has to be opportunistic on defense, which is what happened against Oklahoma (a game that cost me $50 to watch on PPV). 2-3 stops a game usually gives the offense a chance to win.
My biggest issue with the Army football program is the schedule. I know it is tough to play as an independent, and there is likely not a lot of teams signing up to play them in the middle of a conference schedule, but they have to do better. Last year was a bad schedule, but 2019 is horrendous. That’s what makes the UM game even bigger. Army just might be favored in the rest of their games. They could play the entire season and I might not know how good they really are.
I really wish I could have seen Bush play against this offense. He might have had 30 tackles.
At this point, I see UM winning by 2 TDs. I just can’t imagine UM making the same mistakes that OU did. If UM comes out in a three man front and never stops the dive, then we’ll have a 4 quarter game. If UM stops the dive, it should be over by halftime. Duke forced some early uncharacteristic turnovers last year, got up early, and then forced Army into doing things they don’t do well. That is probably how this one will go too.
This will be the first time I’ve ever rooted against UM. Realistically, I should just root for Army to cover the spread. But we’re really looking forward to being at the game and seeing what we can do.
good post. Bush would have been so much fun to watch against these guys. I guess we'll find out if our DT's can hold up against the run very early this season...
What?
He's using land-lubber terms sailor. Pay him no mind.
Go Navy, beat Army!
Well played, Sir. Well played.
Never schedule an academy. It is a no win situation and your going to end up in a dog fight
As an ex nco...#GoArmy
My biggest concern with Army is that their cut blocking scheme obliterates a knee or ankle of one of our defensive linemen. An early season injury to a key player on the line would be a pretty huge blow.
There is no statistical evidence to back up the common assertion that cut blocking leads to more injuries. There's enough data that it makes sense to trust the math on that one.
Ha. There it is!
I was converted by the 4th-and-short math over a decade ago, which makes watching football a frustrating experience. The math is so compelling, and so easy to understand, it just baffles me why football coaches keep ignoring it. I understand the psychological hurdles that must be overcome, but in a multi-billion dollar industry, I expect smart people being paid millions of dollars a year to be able to do so.
(As an aside, I have been interested in Evolutionary Psychology for many years, and read a fair bit of the less technical work that gets put out, and you can explain the reluctance to risk a decisive setback or even loss now in favor of an even greater chance of setback or loss in the future in terms of strategies that led to our ancestors surviving while others perished, so this topic actually combines two of my passions. While interesting, that doesn't make it any less frustrating.)
With the amount of attention the board has given this game, should I expect Gameday to be in town that week?
The question is- should Harbaugh be concerned?
The stigma of losing to Army is very real and can result in lasting consequences for a program. In recent history- three instances stand out. Case 1) In 2017, following an embarrassing loss to Army, UTEP head coach, Sean Kluger, abruptly quit! He literally just left and gave up on the program and players- after saying earlier in the week he was committed. Wow. Case 2) Mike Stoops, DC of Oklahoma, was absolutely lambasted by the Sooner faithful for allowing Army a 45min TOP. After losing to Texas- he was fired- and it was wildly understood that nearly losing to Army in OT was a huge contributing factor. Case 3) Houston fired Major Applewhite after the 70-14 blowout loss to Army in the Armed Forces bowl. The pressure and scrutiny on Coach Applewhite was too great. He had his defense completely unprepared-Ultimately, the perceived humiliation of losing to Army was enough to push out one of the most promising, young HC’s in the nation.