Been crunching some numbers to see just how bad our luck has been on 3 point shooting this postseason. It's been a bit of a shock to me because most of the looks were open; these are not heavily contested attempts or bad flow for the most part. For context, here's our shooting in the regular season versus the postseason:
|Big Ten Tourney||31||90||34.4%|
It's been awful. So it seems we are due for some regression to the mean. That begs the question: how likely are we to return all the way to the mean? TL;DR - it's a long shot.
Just to simplify, in the below I assume each attempt is an independent trial. I also assume each shot has a 37.1% chance of going in (to way more decimal points). Furthermore, I assume we can just look at our odds of hitting the right number of attempts out of 11, 12, etc. and summing them.
I admit I had to google around for the math and used the Binomial Probability model outlined here. Specifically, to calculate the odds of having at least X Makes for a given Y Attempts, I summed for X through Y the value of:
(makes choose attempts) * (odds to make ^ makes) * (odds to miss ^ misses)
Raw numbers are here. Caveats aside, this analysis is meant to provide some perspective. I computed the likelihood we get our March Madness shooting percentage back up to the regular season average as about 1 in 237.
So it's a long shot, but better than 1 in 250. Now, if we include all of the postseason and just look at what our odds are to even finish with that shooting percentage for the tourney (assuming the up to date 36.2% is correct), it's about three times more likely: 1 in 78.
Thanks very much to J. for catching some errors in my initial analysis.