Been crunching some numbers to see just how bad our luck has been on 3 point shooting this postseason. It's been a bit of a shock to me because most of the looks were open; these are not heavily contested attempts or bad flow for the most part. For context, here's our shooting in the regular season versus the postseason:
3 point shooting

3PM 
3PA 
3P% 
Regular Season 
289 
778 
37.1% 
Big Ten Tourney 
31 
90 
34.4% 
March Madness 
38 
120 
31.7% 
It's been awful. So it seems we are due for some regression to the mean. That begs the question: how likely are we to return all the way to the mean? TL;DR  it's a long shot.
Just to simplify, in the below I assume each attempt is an independent trial. I also assume each shot has a 37.1% chance of going in (to way more decimal points). Furthermore, I assume we can just look at our odds of hitting the right number of attempts out of 11, 12, etc. and summing them.
I admit I had to google around for the math and used the Binomial Probability model outlined here. Specifically, to calculate the odds of having at least X Makes for a given Y Attempts, I summed for X through Y the value of:
(makes choose attempts) * (odds to make ^ makes) * (odds to miss ^ misses)
Raw numbers are here. Caveats aside, this analysis is meant to provide some perspective. I computed the likelihood we get our March Madness shooting percentage back up to the regular season average as about 1 in 237.
Game
3PA 
Minimum
Game 3PM 
Minimum
Game 3P% 
Makes
Probability 
Attempt
Odds 
Adjusted
Probability 
9 
N/A 
N/A 
0.00000% 
0.07% 
0.00000% 
10 
N/A 
N/A 
0.00000% 
0.12% 
0.00000% 
11 
11 
100.00% 
0.00186% 
0.22% 
0.00000% 
12 
12 
100.00% 
0.00069% 
0.37% 
0.00000% 
13 
12 
92.31% 
0.00590% 
0.60% 
0.00004% 
14 
12 
85.71% 
0.02717% 
0.94% 
0.00026% 
15 
13 
86.67% 
0.01157% 
1.41% 
0.00016% 
16 
13 
81.25% 
0.04054% 
2.03% 
0.00082% 
17 
13 
76.47% 
0.11337% 
2.80% 
0.00317% 
18 
14 
77.78% 
0.05351% 
3.70% 
0.00198% 
19 
14 
73.68% 
0.13356% 
4.69% 
0.00626% 
20 
15 
75.00% 
0.06528% 
5.69% 
0.00372% 
21 
15 
71.43% 
0.14983% 
6.63% 
0.00994% 
22 
15 
68.18% 
0.30926% 
7.41% 
0.02292% 
23 
16 
69.57% 
0.16229% 
7.94% 
0.01289% 
24 
16 
66.67% 
0.31925% 
8.16% 
0.02605% 
25 
16 
64.00% 
0.58234% 
8.04% 
0.04683% 
26 
17 
65.38% 
0.32397% 
7.60% 
0.02462% 
27 
17 
62.96% 
0.57351% 
6.89% 
0.03950% 
28 
17 
60.71% 
0.95849% 
5.99% 
0.05737% 
29 
18 
62.07% 
0.55994% 
4.99% 
0.02793% 
30 
18 
60.00% 
0.91772% 
3.99% 
0.03659% 
31 
19 
61.29% 
0.54293% 
3.06% 
0.01659% 
32 
19 
59.38% 
0.87492% 
2.25% 
0.01965% 
33 
19 
57.58% 
1.35187% 
1.58% 
0.02140% 
34 
20 
58.82% 
0.83120% 
1.07% 
0.00890% 
35 
20 
57.14% 
1.26960% 
0.69% 
0.00881% 
36 
20 
55.56% 
1.87237% 
0.43% 
0.00807% 
37 
21 
56.76% 
1.19042% 
0.26% 
0.00306% 
38 
21 
55.26% 
8.74323% 
0.15% 
0.01285% 
39 
22 
56.41% 
1.11469% 
0.08% 
0.00090% 
40 
22 
55.00% 
1.61939% 
0.04% 
0.00069% 
So it's a long shot, but better than 1 in 250. Now, if we include all of the postseason and just look at what our odds are to even finish with that shooting percentage for the tourney (assuming the up to date 36.2% is correct), it's about three times more likely: 1 in 78.
Game
3PA 
Minimum
Game 3PM 
Minimum
Game 3P% 
Makes
Probability 
Attempt
Odds 
Adjusted
Probability 
9 
9 
100.00% 
0.01077% 
0.07% 
0.00001% 
10 
10 
100.00% 
0.00390% 
0.12% 
0.00000% 
11 
10 
90.91% 
0.02878% 
0.22% 
0.00006% 
12 
10 
83.33% 
0.11604% 
0.37% 
0.00043% 
13 
11 
84.62% 
0.04927% 
0.60% 
0.00030% 
14 
11 
78.57% 
0.15410% 
0.94% 
0.00145% 
15 
11 
73.33% 
0.38807% 
1.41% 
0.00549% 
16 
12 
75.00% 
0.18463% 
2.03% 
0.00375% 
17 
12 
70.59% 
0.42052% 
2.80% 
0.01177% 
18 
13 
72.22% 
0.20743% 
3.70% 
0.00767% 
19 
13 
68.42% 
0.43907% 
4.69% 
0.02057% 
20 
13 
65.00% 
0.83999% 
5.69% 
0.04782% 
21 
14 
66.67% 
0.44669% 
6.63% 
0.02963% 
22 
14 
63.64% 
0.82078% 
7.41% 
0.06083% 
23 
14 
60.87% 
1.40388% 
7.94% 
0.11149% 
24 
15 
62.50% 
0.79304% 
8.16% 
0.06472% 
25 
15 
60.00% 
1.32425% 
8.04% 
0.10650% 
26 
15 
57.69% 
2.09407% 
7.60% 
0.15915% 
27 
16 
59.26% 
1.24321% 
6.89% 
0.08563% 
28 
16 
57.14% 
1.93690% 
5.99% 
0.11594% 
29 
16 
55.17% 
2.88962% 
4.99% 
0.14416% 
30 
17 
56.67% 
1.78852% 
3.99% 
0.07131% 
31 
17 
54.84% 
2.64348% 
3.06% 
0.08079% 
32 
18 
56.25% 
1.64936% 
2.25% 
0.03705% 
33 
18 
54.55% 
2.41783% 
1.58% 
0.03828% 
34 
18 
52.94% 
3.42848% 
1.07% 
0.03669% 
35 
19 
54.29% 
2.21119% 
0.69% 
0.01534% 
36 
19 
52.78% 
3.11931% 
0.43% 
0.01345% 
37 
19 
51.35% 
4.27743% 
0.26% 
0.01100% 
38 
20 
52.63% 
2.83934% 
0.15% 
0.00417% 
39 
20 
51.28% 
3.88152% 
0.08% 
0.00313% 
40 
20 
50.00% 
5.17738% 
0.04% 
0.00219% 
Thanks very much to J. for catching some errors in my initial analysis.
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