Sooner or later, Michigan is going to win The Game again.

When it happens, it’s liable to happen in a year when it shouldn’t have happened, so to speak. It must be granted that the last time the Wolverines came out ahead in this game was due to special circumstances in Columbus back in 2011, but eventually they'll win one they "shouldn't."

Should they win in 2021? Probably not.

Ohio State opened as 7.5 point favorites in this game after obliterating the Michigan State Spartans 56-7 last Saturday. The Buckeyes appear to be clicking on all cylinders right now and have the most fearsome offensive lineup in the country. Their defense had a bad, terrible, no good start to the year but last week held Michigan State to 224 total yards and seven points.

It’s easy to foresee ways in which Michigan could lose this game. The Buckeyes are a difficult puzzle to solve on offense and their defense has a lot of talent which can come to bear when they are able to play sound, cohesive schemes. New defensive coordinator Matt Barnes went with a youth movement and they have second-year players littered across the defensive backfield playing in some of their normal 1-high coverages mixed with man-quarters.

It’s not impossible though. Ohio State probably isn’t quite the juggernaut they’ve appeared to be and Michigan has some good players on their team as well. Good players who’ve been focused on winning this game for a very long time…

[A PATHWAY FOR MICHIGAN TO WIN THE GAME AFTER THE JUMP]

How to lose to Ohio State

It’s pretty easy, nearly everyone is doing it.

The best way to lose to Ohio State is to let Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave get behind your defense.

Jackson Smith-Njigba is ostensibly their leading receiver. At 6-foot-0 and 198 pounds, he’s proven pretty capable and resilient working crossing routes in the middle of the field which C.J. Stroud routinely hits. Currently the ninja is at 69 catches (team lead) for 1,132 yards and six touchdowns.

Here are the numbers for the two outside receivers:

Garrett Wilson: 60 catches, 939 yards, 11 touchdowns

Chris Olave: 58 catches, 848 yards, 13 touchdowns 

This is where they kill you. Safeties get drawn in trying to match the crossing routes over the middle and then Wilson or Olave are running a post or a fly behind everyone and Stroud is sitting back in a well protected pocket and launching away.

Of course you can’t just sell out to stop the pass and get away with it. Treveyon Henderson is a bit inexperienced but he understands how to run over a 5-man box and has over 1,000 yards this season at 7.3 ypc with 14 touchdowns. The offensive line has multiple blue chips and the sole, humble 3-star is 6-foot-8, 360 pound right tackle Dawand Jones. It’s a big, unpleasant unit to match up against, especially if you don't have the benefit of numbers in the box to match them.

So what gives? You don’t really want to sit in a true Cover 2 defense and let them run the ball, it’s too easy for them. You also don’t really want to give them any 1-on-1 matchups for their NFL wideouts, any of which can toast you at a given moment. If you drop everyone deep off their receivers they don’t typically struggle to throw adjustable routes underneath for easy gains...so what’s to be done?

On the other side of the ball, Ohio State has a number of great athletes across the defense and they’re designed to challenge your passing game and outnumber the run with liberal deployment of strong safety Ronnie Hickman.

The 205 pound second-year player from Arizona leads the team in tackles and it’s not close (he has 84, the linebackers split time and are in the 30s and 40s). They’ll play 1-rat and he’ll play down in the box, or they’ll play Cover 4-man and he’ll sit on the boundary hash at a shallow depth and rob crossing routes and close against the run game. Consequently, they’re deferring a lot of stress to the cornerbacks and trusting them to hold up 1-on-1 outside in man coverage.

Kerry Coombs has ultimately managed to get their cornerbacks going again, Denzel Burke is the top guy at left corner and has 10 break-ups, Cameron Brown holds down the right side and will tend to play less press-man coverage than Burke but he still gets left to his lonesome a fair amount.

Ostensibly, the advantages against this team are to throw the ball to the 1-on-1 matchups they offer outside and to hope their freshman running back can’t consistently beat you all day against two-high coverages designed to stop their passing game. I think there’s a better way.

Setting the terms

Ohio State wants this to be a high scoring game which comes down to Cade McNamara and the Michigan wideouts trying to out-duel Stroud and the Buckeye skill talent. The odds of Michigan winning such a game are virtually nil. Even if they scheme up a lot of opportunities for their offense it’s not likely they’d fare well in a high possession game where Ohio State gets a lot of shots at solving their defense and landing big plays.

So priority one for Michigan is making sure this game is played on their own terms.

Secondly, Ohio State plays a lot of man coverage for a reason, two really. One, they want their defensive backs to have a chance to dictate the terms of the game. Coombs is one of the best position coaches in the country and has been cranking out press-man cornerbacks for the NFL for a long time now.

Secondly, Buckeye is more comfortable with Kerry Coombs’ charges defending the point of attack with support from their D-line pass-rush than entrusting this game to their linebackers.

All year Ohio State has only played three teams who wanted to beat them in the trenches by controlling the game on the ground. The Minnesota Gophers, Oregon Ducks, and Nebraska Cornhuskers who gave Ohio State their three toughest games of the season.

Michigan State's dependence on spread formations and spacing made them vulnerable to Ohio State loading the box in man coverage and daring Payton Thorne to beat Stroud in a shootout. Thorne attempted 36 passes while the Spartans were only able to run the ball six times with Kenneth Walker III.

The Buckeyes don’t want the game to come down to how well their various second-year linebackers fit the run with the aid of second-year safety Ronnie Hickman. It’s not a great set-up for them.

Step one for Michigan then is to do what they’ve been doing all year on offense, lining up with a multitude of different formations and regularly employing two or three tight ends at a time, and hitting the Buckeyes with the full gamut of run game schemes. Outside zone, tight zone, pin and pull, Power-O, D-gap power, counter, anything and everything which asks the linebackers to read keys against different formations and make good fits.

An eight-man front against a double tight end formation only gets you so far on defense, the offense can account for the extra defender and create gaps which necessitate his involvement rather than making him a wrecking ball. Michigan should even consider regularly throwing in 13 personnel with Erick All motioning in and out of the box to serve as a receiver or blocker.

Once Michigan starts pulling guards or sliding tight ends around with extended surfaces, you move gaps and Hickman goes from being a 205 pound free-hitter over the top to being a primary fitter at the point of attack.

Would Ohio State just sub in extra linebackers to match up? Ideally, yes. You take your chances with Hassan Haskins running behind Luke Schoonmaker blocking a back-up linebacker who’s trying to suss out all of Harbaugh’s run game machinations in the biggest game of the year. Get them to load the box with linebackers and then motion All out to feast on whoever is left to play coverage.

If this worked it would allow to Michigan hold the ball for sustained drives, picking up a ton of first downs, and staying in the game on the scoreboard so they aren’t pressured into leaning on McNamara. Obviously there will be big 3rd downs which come up, assume Michigan has been working on a variety of man-beating route combinations with rubs and crossers. They fell short executing those down the stretch against Michigan State and need to be better in this game.

There really is good reason for Michigan to believe they can hammer away at Ohio State’s inexperienced defensive front and pick up steady gains. Oregon did it with a weaker and less multi-faceted offensive front. The Ohio State defense who lost to Oregon is still there somewhere, buried under the scarlet, grey, and offensive deluges which have shielded them from exposure.

Step two is not allowing the Ohio State offense to dictate how this game flows.

You can’t maintain the hammering process on Ohio State’s defense if Stroud is throwing it over your head early and often.

Instead the Wolverines need Stroud working to maintain drives through the air against their pass-rush, worrying about what Daxton Hill is up to and trying to stay ahead of the chains without the benefit of quick-strike scores. They’ll have to mix coverages and keep Ryan Day and his quarterback guessing, but the best plan of action would be to play match 3 and concede some 1-on-1s outside but to play with a very deep safety.

The goal of the deep safety? Don’t let Stroud throw a long touchdown pass. All Buckeye points must come as a result of a sustained drive. Wilson, Olave, and the ninja will win their battles on the Michigan nickel and cornerbacks and catch passes, but those cannot result in long scores. Meanwhile Stroud needs to be looking at a confusing box which discourages runs and has him and his line guessing about where pressures are coming from.

Can Ohio State execute a pro-style passing game up and down the field more efficiently than Michigan can execute a pro-style running game? That’s the question the Wolverines want answered in this game.

The answer might be “yes,” but if Michigan succeeds in getting the question in, there’s a definite chance it’s actually “no.”