Spring Game Extrapolations: Defense
Yesterday we hit the offense; this is the other side of the ball.
Campbell Or Someone Else, Except There Isn't Anyone Else
All eyes not locked on Denard Robinson Saturday will be interpreting any signs of life from Will Campbell as prophecy of opposing offensive lines' impending doom. The facts are these: Michigan has three lock starters on the line, a big hole at three-technique, and a very big man who was a very big former recruit on his way to being a very big bust who is getting personal attention from no fewer than three Michigan coaches.
Michigan has put all their eggs in Campbell's basket. Quinton Washington is backing up Mike Martin—and doing so unevenly—and the only other options there are redshirt freshmen like Richard Ash (also probably an NT if he's anything) and Terry Talbott (probably another year away from being physically ready).
There's almost no way he's not going to start. This makes me nervous because it makes me think about Pat Massey. Massey was 6'8" and never should have been anywhere near DT, but he had a good amount of starting experience when he was inadvisably thrust inside after Michigan ended their one-year experiment with the 3-4. He still ended most plays in a crumpled mess several yards downfield. He was the three-tech next to Gabe Watson; hopefully Campbell doesn't go down as Martin's Massey.
Looking for: my skepticism about Campbell ever performing well is established. If the guy just holds his own and doesn't get blown up on the regular that will be major progress.
Fearing: The third string center getting under his pads and depositing him in Kovacs's lap.
Will only believe three games into the season: That Michigan's previous defensive coaches were even more incompetent than we already believe them to be.
Edge Terror: Yes, Please
Craig Roh is entering his junior year, and the clock has started ticking faster. As a freshman he was incredibly undersized; as a sophomore he was incredibly miscast. Now he's in an upperclassman in an under front as the weakside defensive end—this is his time and place. On a defense wholly devoid of established playmakers other than Martin he is the player most likely to blow up. Michigan needs him to or it's going to be another year in which opposing quarterbacks can finish their crumpets in the pocket before leisurely surveying to see which receiver is open by yards.
Here Michigan actually seems to have a decent second option: Jibreel Black was a complete disaster against the run as a true freshman but flashed disruptive ability when teams didn't run right at him. Like virtually everyone else on the team he should have redshirted; if he had everyone would be talking him up as the next coming because they hadn't seen his shortcomings. As it is a big post-frosh bump in performance can be expected.
Looking for: one-on-one pass rush from Roh against Schofield/Huyge/walk-on. He has to be able to beat those guys if he's going to take on the Big Ten this fall.
Fearing: Here I don't think we'll be too disappointed. There are two good options.
Will only believe three games into the season: That they can't get production out of this spot.
Jonas Newton
/nantz'd
Michigan's veteran linebackers have shuffled off to their futures. Since Obi Ezeh was replaced at midseason by immediately obvious upgrade Kenny Demens, middle linebacker is set. Ready or not, Cam Gordon will be the strongside LB. That leaves Jonas Mouton's old spot as the only other in the front seven up for grabs. Despite collecting all manner of safety/LB tweeners answers are few. Candidates:
- Mike Jones. Jones was the primary backup to Mouton last spring and was getting hyped up as a playmaker; one season-ending injury later there are grumbles he is too small and does not fit the position in a 4-3 under.
- Brandin Hawthorne. Yeah… so… Brandin Hawthorne hasn't seen the field in any capacity other than special teams yet and seemed destined for a Darnell Hood sort of career and now he's kind of the only option other than Jones because all the rest of the guys are participating in a pitched battle elsewhere. Speaking of…
- Safety war losers. Carvin Johnson, Marvin Robinson, and Josh Furman all spent part of last year at linebacker and part at safety; this spring they're all trying to fill Michigan's perpetually gaping hole next to Jordan Kovacs. While they won't be playing WLB saturday, if someone establishes themselves as the guy they will probably throw one of these three back in the linebacker pool.
- Oh, and Thomas Gordon. Some reports put Gordon in the WLB battle while others think he's in a distinctly separate boat of guys playing a dedicated nickelback spot. Gordon was a pleasant surprise as the starting spur earlier in the year and if there are few other options at WLB he might inherit that spot by default, flexing out into the nickel when other teams go spread. That would have some obvious downsides—dude is not linebacker-sized—but Larry Foote is not walking through that door.
- Oh, and… um… Marell Evans? Apparently he's back on the team after not playing at Hampton, and while he's getting some practice buzz that's so far-fetched I'm not even going to list it under things I don't believe because obviously.
Hypothetically, the WLB is the best-protected linebacker in an under front and can be a little fast guy who pursues guys all over the field. More realistically you can shield him a bit but offenses will find ways to make your tiny guy go facemask to facemask with much larger folks, especially if the three-tech spot supposed to shield him is iffy.
Looking for: A weakside linebacker that does not blow outside contain constantly. If I had to guess right now I would say Gordon gets virtually all of the time against spread teams and eventually ends up dragged into the lineup against the coaches' better judgment simply because he can play.
Fearing: A major downgrade—Mouton also turned in his fair share of great individual plays.
Will only believe three games into the season: That having Hawthorne in the two-deep is not an ominous sign.
Squinting In The General Direction Of Safety
Well… at least they've got some athlete type substances. They're weakside linebackers mostly but they'd be really fast WLBs. As mentioned, Johnson, Robinson, and Furman are all fighting to be Michigan's scapegoat this fall; there is no clarity as to who will come out on top. Johnson has the initial edge since he's seen the field, but most of that was at linebacker and last year when he moved to safety he ended up behind the leetle tiny Vinopal despite his tendency to look like Jerry attempting to tackle Tom.
As per usual, brace yourselves.
Looking for: Johnson to be as reputed: a bit slow but reliable and an excellent tackler. Basically a scholarship version of Kovacs.
Fearing: Fear? There is no fear, only the cold hard certainty Michigan's safeties will suck.
Will only believe three games into the season: There are no hopes out there to deflate, so we can take a pass on this one.
Oh And Bonus
AAAAARGH KICKERS
Looking for: Ball through uprights; more realistically, the matriculation of Matt Wile.
Fearing: Not through uprights.
Will only believe three games into the season: that I can watch a field goal attempt without throwing up.
IIRC, he was a 4-star guy.
April 14th, 2011 at 10:00 AM ^
In case anyone's still lookin' ...
http://espn.go.com/recruiting/s/topclasses.html
It's a generic-looking URL that should resolve to an '01 recruiting article by ESPN. Massey is referred to as a 5-star there.
that he's undersized
He's got some guns but his bio says he's 5-11 which probably means he's 5-9. That's pretty small, not to say that he can't ball, it's just not ideal height. Especially at OLB
There is just as much reason to be optimistic, the scheme change, the coaching change, the fact that he will be working exclusively at one position, the fact that he'll be on the field with Mike Martin, and as Brian stated, he has three coaches giving him more attention than anyone else.
Plus this:"I think Will's main improvement has been in his work ethic and attitude toward the game," Van Bergen said. "He's really come into his own as far as putting in extra time and paying attention to smaller details. He takes criticism well and he just keeps improving every day. "His day-to-day improvement is probably one of the best on the team." Hoke was asked if Campbell is expected to make an impact this fall. "I don't think there's any doubt Will can do that, and you see signs of that," Hoke said. "We have to get a little more consistency. I like how Will has come to work every day, I like how he's thirsting for some knowledge. When I say that, I'm just talking about the fundamentals of playing the position and being a tackle in there on defense. I like the progression. I think we've got a ways to go in all areas, but I think Will's done a good job."
From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110412/SPORTS0201/104120425/Brady-Hoke-notes-improved-work-ethic-of-U-M’s-Will-Campbell#ixzz1JQexexXb
But citing "camp reports" as the reason is dubious. Last I checked, Toussaint didn't win the Heisman, Johnny Sears didn't conjure images of C-Wood, etc., etc. Camp reports are fun - but are to be taken with a grain of salt.
Camp reports alone, yes it's dubious.
But Camp reports, along with new coaches, new scheme, new attitude, better work ethic, different training, maturity, players praise, all factor into it.
It's also dubious to bag on the kid relentlessly, when we haven't even played the Spring game yet. Like I said in my original post, give the kid a chance.
Also: I never mentioned Heisman's, or compared anyone to Charles Woodson (or Michigan's best DT). In Campbell's case, I am just saying it is pessimestic and unfair to characterise him like that. I just don't think we'll see "Cambell sitting in Kovac's lap"
Camp is very meaningful - any time the players get together and compete, it means something. If you were a 1, and somebody stepped in front and now you're a 2, you won't be saying "oh that's just Spring ball." You start Fall as the #2. They're all fighting right now.
Grain of salt, Yes; Dismiss these performances, No.
you're such an asshole sometimes, you make Magnus look like a nice guy
Pot, meet kettle.
Now that one made me laugh...well said sir...the only time I venture out into the board or comments is out of sheer boredom. I admire your perserverance to stick with it and wade in regularly and offer glimpses of sanity and reason. I have come to appreciate your comments enough that I now have your blog on my fave list and read it regularly.
Thanks. I appreciate the compliments.
Since the comments here have devolved into a referendum on Brian's level of cynicism, I say we should start keeping score. I'm going to grade this post a "5 Mencken" on the scale of 1 to 10 Menckens -- solidly pessimistic, but about a subject (the Michigan defense) that lends itself to pessimism of late.
pegged exactly the number of wins we reached last year (I predicated one less, and felt elated that we'd done that, therefore was more annoyed that most that RR didn't get asked back for at least one more shot).
It isn't and shouldn't be Brian's job to express irrational exuberance about the team, and I don't think he ever has done that. Some of the more recent arrivals to this site should look back through old posts. To the degree that this site has gone downhill it has been because of the number of people who come here without their critical caps on, just looking to ratify their fandom. If it becomes one big UM circle-jerk. . . boring.
Looks to me like struggles Brian's suggesting may occur on both sides of the ball this fall are quite in line with what outsiders are predicting--a first year with its share of rugged stretches as a lot of round pegs are (once again) retrofitted for a number of square holes.
Minor league lynch mobs are the sorriest kind; let's try to think for ourselves. We're Michigan; we're better than that.
April 13th, 2011 at 10:30 PM ^
It has gone downhill. There are about 10 people who have taken everything said by Brian about Michigan football that isn't wildly optimistic as an evil attack on Hoke, Michigan football, apple pie, the flag and bunny rabbits. Of course, these same persons were nowhere to be found when the local and national media were heaving molotov cocktails our way with Rodriguez at the helm. If you don't like what Brian has to say, leave.
April 14th, 2011 at 12:26 AM ^
the best we can realistically hope for is a D that gets better as the year goes on and his hopefully somewhere between competent and pretty good by the time the Nebraska and OSU games come along. With Mattison at the helm, I think we can realistically hope for this.
Hoping that Kellen Jones will eventually be able to play himself into the 2 deep at the Will.
Hoping with added experience and coaching Marvin Robinson will be a player that you just can't keep off the field. Same with Furman. They are both raw now but hopefully will be more refined in technique and responsibilities as the season progresses.
If, IF, Will Campbell fails at DT is there any chance RVB moves inside allowing Black or someone else to play DE? Having a solid middle of the d-line is key to a good defense so I'd rather sacrafice a solid DE for a solid DT plus our DE options seem deeper than our DT options.
Any chance this would happen?
I don't think that's a possibility, but if it is, it's a good one. Putting Black or Roh at 3-tech and moving Van Bergen to the 5-tech would make us very, very deep at NT and 3-tech DT.
EDIT: I just read what Magnus posted and I like his answer better than mine.
If, IF, Will Campbell fails at DT is there any chance RVB moves inside allowing Black or someone else to play DE? Having a solid middle of the d-line is key to a good defense so I'd rather sacrafice a solid DE for a solid DT plus our DE options seem deeper than our DT options.
Any chance this would happen?
I think that's a possibility, but not a good one. Putting Van Bergen at 3-tech and moving Black or Roh to the 5-tech would make us very, very thin at rush end and 5-tech DT.
Why not Q at nose and MM at the 3 if BWC doesn't work out? How can I put this politely? Moving RVB in for anything more than a few plays and having Roh or Black as a 5-tech D'end seems a little 2010'ish.
Three cheers for a well coached D, other than that, I have no expectations
I agree Will Campbell looks like a bust but hopefully I'm wrong. It's hard for me to be too negative about anything right now though because all I see is our team making a major leap in coaching and our recruiting. ( I mean c'mon we have Greg Mattison, that was HUGE ) I realize that it's going to take at least a few years to get this team where it needs to be but I'm really excited to see the steps we've taken. Anything is better than a crappy big east team that R-Rod tried to turn us into.
I just don't get how trying to make WC better is "putting all of our eggs in one basket". I'm sorry, do we have any other baskets? What's the risk/harm? There is no one else to go with. For all the Decimated Defense and Offensive leftover articles we've seen, the underlying point to this whole post that never gets said is, beyond a few players, we've recruited hardly anyone of note on defense, and it's going to take a couple of classes to get it back up. Because if we all agree defensive coaching has to be better, they're older, and we're still this worried about the D, well, it must mean we don't have very many good bodies.
April 13th, 2011 at 11:16 PM ^
I don't think about our CB situation either.
I just wish Brian wouldn't be so pessimistic. You know, because he has the power to affect our record and level of success. In the future. With HIS MIND.
Brian's like a latter day Chris Walken and shit.
of the root of problems with the past coaching staff. In my eyes, Big Will is the best example of the weakness of Rodriguez. Well maybe the best example should be reserved for the kicking game. Regardless, he was undercoached and underappreciated. He was overlooked and underworked. He practiced against the spread. Rodriguez is an offensive coordinator and Big Will suffered for it. I think in two years Will Campbell is well known nationally and drafted high. It doesn't appear that he has given up at all. Judging from what we have seen and heard his resolve and dedication seem to be high. I am sure he wants the league. I am sure he wants the ticket out. I say he goes apeshit.
April 14th, 2011 at 12:32 PM ^
...the scheme changes, forcing Denard to take 3,5 and 7 steps backward every play, to change his read from the DE and scraping LB to coverages downfield and pre-snap, to take the OL as is - w/o Lewan, w/o Molk repping w/QB under center. This spring game had better show improvement on the DL if only because our OL 1s look more like 2s/3s and DR has so much work to do to become what he is not.
I haven't heard much in the drive blocking techniques on the line as yet either. Asking Gunderson to block Martin isn't going to be pretty - but that is probably what Mattison will have him attempt to do if he truly moves guys around to find the most favorable matchups. I doubt we see much of Nathan Brink or Alex Schwab while we are going to get a good dose of Gunderson, Mateus and maybe even Burzynski.
I can't imagine Borges has much upside on the 2010 offensive performance other than winning more games with the help of an average D.
I'd rather be Mattison in this game - even with Woolfolk and Floyd out. Hopefully come fall this evens out considerably.
I'm really curious about Quinton Washington. I'm wondering what he has to give. He is the other side of the WC story. With Lewan out he would have been likely be starting with the 1s on O given our shortage of OL. I never heard a bad thing about him on the OL. Last year he was a late position xfer - with low expectations.
Very little of this sounds good. Come on September
Very little of this sounds good. Come on September
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