[Paul Sherman]

Neck Sharpies: A Man Down Comment Count

Seth November 21st, 2023 at 12:36 PM

Michigan cheated against Maryland. I don't mean they broke a rule, or broke a non-rule that their rivals suddenly convinced their conference commissioner is a rule for the purposes of upending their season. I mean Michigan was stealing a player from their run fits for most of the game, essentially playing 10-on-11 up front to have a safety stay high doing nothing of particular interest. It wasn't the first time they played like this, nor are they the first school to play like it. Nor is there any great mystery why they've been playing like this. Not when we've spent all season calling it "Playing Ohio State."

Here we are on the first Maryland play from scrimmage and Michigan shifts to a Tite front.

Even though Maryland has only two potential pass threats to the boundary Rod Moore is high over that side. Junior Colson is in the wide space between the RT and the slot receiver. If Maryland wants to pass against this they have 3v4 defenders to the top and 1v2 defenders to the bottom, at least until the RB declares a side. That leaves just five defenders committed to the run, four if you factor the LB (Barrett) on the bottom hash has a pass zone.

image

[After the JUMP: Light boxes, heavy men.]

This is a light box, with four linemen for six blockers not and a second level of one linebacker and one cornerback (if the TE stays in to block). And sure enough off the snap Maryland is going to use that numbers advantage to get two doubles up front.

image

Both McGregor (DE on top) and Graham (DT on top) are holding their double-teams at the line of scrimmage. Until there's a handoff nobody else gets to commit to run defense. Once the ball is handed off, Moore, the safety at the top hash, starts to react to the run. So does Colson, the LB who was on the top hash. Those guys are reactive, however. What about the defenders being proactive? How are they supposed to fit all of those gaps when there aren't enough players?

The answer versus stretch is for the defensive linemen to fight to get playside of those doubles. McGregor up top is giving the RG no choice but to release to get a linebacker. Of course, once he does, McGregor is singled in the B gap with the RT, and Colson should be arriving to take care of the C gap. The frontside is closed.

image

Moving down a pair, Graham has done the same thing only more so. The center is in the backfield, and the LG is more or less useless unless he goes and gets Barrett. So now we move back another gap, where we find Kris Jenkins singled on the LT. Well shit, that's not fair.

Sure enough, Jenkins gets across that tackle's face to close down the B gap. Harrell is cutting off the backside edge, so the RB has to cut back *again*, all the way to the opposite C gap from the one this play was initially aiming at. I should mention here that this all takes time as the RB downshifts to search for cutback lanes and the back seven defenders rally. As things go awry, for example McGregor getting moved out by the RG, Colson can fill, with Paige replacing him outside.

image

By the time the RB hits the backside C gap that Jenkins abandoned, the two pass defenders from the boundary side are coming down to fill it. Wallace makes the tackle for a minimal gain.

So this is how Michigan wants to defend stretch:

  1. Frontline defenders fight to get playside of their blockers to force a cutback.
  2. One linebacker shadows the RB to provide help where he wants to go.
  3. Keep him bouncing back until help defenders corral.

The point here is what happens when that DT doesn't prevent the frontside of his double-team from getting downfield. There's plenty of material coming from the backside to handle cutbacks, but you have to slow the run down. When it's working, Michigan fans are treated to what looks like an incredible play by the guy coming in from the backside. When I review these plays, usually the guy most responsible is actually the one who forced the cutback, not the pursuit.

Let's watch another one, again from a late shift to a Tite look, and see if you can recognize what's going on.

So this had a wrinkle, in that Sainristil activated quickly to set the edge. As for the next gap, Derrick Moore had no shot at getting to the C gap, so Colson, the RB's mirror, filled it. Moore skated playside of the other half of his double and filled in behind, and Grant did the same to the center, running it down once the RB had to cut back.

If they can get away with this, they can keep those help defenders back looking for passes. But this is a big ask, and they can't always. Here's the very next play after the first one:

This is a passing down, and Michigan is hoping to catch Maryland by blitzing Barrett into the backside. This means Barrett is now a frontline defender, and Colson becomes the LB mirroring the RB. That's not good—Graham is getting cut and McGregor is only going to be helpful on a full cutback. Maryland has two guys for Jenkins and the TE on the top might have an angle to get at Colson.

image

Also Maryland has two guys for Jenkins and the RT on the top might have an angle to get at Colson. As the play develops, Jenkins isn't able to get across the tackle.

image

He gives up ground because the one thing he can't do is give up the lane. The handoff was just made, so the pass defenders to this side are only just now starting to activate. You can see the WR (bottom right) going to pick off a safety, which means the cornerback should be showing up eventually. Harrell can cross his blocker after the RB goes by but can't make the play. The room created by Jenkins getting beat is the space the back needs to run away from Graham.

image

The LT is able to move on to pick off the CB, Johnson, but that's going to create a pileup so the RB cuts back, finally, into Colson.

image

If we're handing out points for this, Graham(+0.5) got over the cutblock and was relevant, Colson(+0.5) got around the LT, Jenkins(-1) couldn't get playside of the LT, and there's an RPS-1 for putting Barrett into a backside lane, making McGregor irrelevant to the play. I may give Johnson a (+0.5) as well for forcing it back to Colson.

The Counter

You may be thinking if Michigan likes to defend Stretch by getting their DTs aggressively to frontside gaps, there's probably a counter that punishes such behavior. And there is: Counter! This is a power play we've talked about a ton on this blog, because it was Michigan's base running play for most of Harbaugh's tenure.

image

To the DTs, the first steps of those those blockdowns look like the beginnings of Stretch. To a linebacker shadowing the RB, that counter step has the same effect. When one step is all it takes, you can get a lot of guys a lot of wrong-sided with that one step. And when you're playing short a man, that can be devastating. But Michigan has a plan for that too.

The key player is the edge, the one getting the kickout block, in this case McGregor. Remember how before Michigan always had an edge player sitting out there on the backside. This is where he comes into play, and this is why Michigan recruits these oversized athletes for the job. McGregor is looking for someone crossing to kick him out, and if he gets that, he has to crush that guy inside to cut off the lane.

image

This matters because it goes to the size of the gap, and the other side of the gap is likely to be a problem. The double on Goode, who's the playside DT, is dangerous, because Goode is going to spend his first step trying to get to his right, across the RG. The RT gets to use that step against him to widen that gap. If Goode gets under the G the RT can come off his block and pick off Colson. Remember, until the safeties can arrive, we're still playing a man down.

image

But here again the "Michigan's DTs are better than anybody" principle comes back into play. Because once that tackle leaves for Colson, Goode is one-on-one with the guard. And that's just not fair.

image

Goode (and Jenkins) whip past their single-blockers and initiate the tackle at the line of scrimmage.

image

Why it Matters

Like Maryland, Ohio State likes to run stretch as its base running play, and like Maryland, they use Counter as their favorite changeup. Unlike Maryland, Ohio State has the best receiver in the country, and a running back who can do a lot of damage if left in the open field, as well as other dangerous weapons like 5-star receiver Emeka Egbuka and future-pro tight end Cade Stover. Michigan would much prefer to leave their safeties back to deal with all of those guys. If they can trust their DTs to win individual battles with OSU's linemen with enough consistency, they might just get away with it.

Comments

Commie_High96

November 21st, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^

I know it’s OSU, and a lot of us have PTSD. But, not only does OSU not have the best rookie QB to hit the NFL in a generation, but they also don’t have the depth at RB and WR they have had in the past. We also aren’t down our best player like we were last year. And we are at home! Objectively, this should be easier than last year.

ShadowStorm33

November 21st, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^

If all you watched was the UGA game, not really. He put up a game for the ages.

But based on previous games--he didn't necessarily deal with pressure well, and while always incredibly accurate, he was typically feasting by throwing to wide open receivers--yeah, count me in as someone who figured he'd be a bust...

dragonchild

November 21st, 2023 at 2:22 PM ^

Not shocked.  He has pinpoint accuracy, which is always an asset in the NFL.  His accuracy was kind of wasted at OSU; they usually didn't need it to that level.  He also doesn't succumb to game pressure; in big games he invariably plays well.  He's not why OSU lost to Michigan the last two years.

But he remains very vulnerable to situational pressure.  It's not easy, because if he sees something he can be very quick to get the ball out, but Carolina limited him to 140 yards, and that seems repeatable.  In any game the question will always be, can the opposing defense pressure him into mistakes.  Whenever they can't, he's gonna eat.

He might become Dan Marino, reborn.  Career-wise I mean, not style-wise.  Regular Probe Owler, will make the playoffs and set NFL passing records, but, eh. . . he'll always have those moments when his brain short-circuits in the face of an elite passing defense, and that might limit his postseason success.

4th phase

November 22nd, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^

Yeah I just sort of figured than in the NFL basically every team has an edge rusher than can generate 1 on 1 pressure. Seems like great OT talent is becoming more rare. And I thought he would be under pressure a lot more. When drafting a guy, I'd want someone who doesn't have steep drop offs under pressure because a team that is drafting in the top 10 is most likely going to be giving up tons of pressure. 

But his poise and killer instinct have been next level already. His mental progression from the preaseason to mid-season was a straight line upwards.

mi93

November 21st, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^

The more I think about this D 'playing osu' for 11 games and being up 20 in the blink of an eye, the final scores the last two weeks are feeling more annoying than concerning.

Big test coming this week, but damn I like M's chances.

urbanachiever

November 21st, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^

Didn't expect this type of Make Plays performance from Cam Goode this year. Crazy that he is either the 4th or 5th best DT on the roster

Part of why Michigan can just boa constrictor everyone is because defenses tend to get tired later in games. On the defensive side, no one can do that to Michigan because we have the incredible luxury of going legitimately 9 deep on the defensive line

RJWolvie

November 21st, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^

I do worry that OSU has an excellent WR2 opposite Harrison vs our CB2, an excellent RB, and good+ TE vs our LBs sometimes cover grass. We run out of dudes to cover (& defend run) before they run out of dudes to get open & break off runs. Our D line has to make up for it and make life miserable for McCord who has to not rise above his level heretofore. And/or our offense has to more-than-keep pace. 

MGlobules

November 21st, 2023 at 7:08 PM ^

Yes, the D line will do its job, and we'll have that extra guy. They'll also have some frustrating runs where they get ahead of the count--it will sometimes feel like they're getting more yards than they are. But the guys in the back are going to have to make some plays. I don't see why they shouldn't!

SAM love SWORD

November 21st, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^

Thanks for this Seth. 

Feels like Ohio State's path to victory includes 1) Sustained success on the ground against our DTs 2) A few "how did he do that?" plays from Harrison Jr. and 3) JJ not being JJ. 

 

HonoluluBlue

November 21st, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^

If Michigan has now "played" ohio 11 times wouldn't that mean we've basically given them 11 games of film of exactly what we are going to do? Seems like on offense the idea is to always save plays for ohio. Why is defense seemingly the exact opposite?

JonnyHintz

November 21st, 2023 at 8:54 PM ^

I think you’re confusing wrinkles/plays and concepts/scheme here.

 

Yes, you generally want to save your better plays for better competition and high leverage situations. You add wrinkles to plays you’ve repped throughout the year to catch your opponent off-guard, like a Kalel Mullings pop pass on a short yardage situation for example. Bringing out the heavy 7 OL package against Penn State’s speedy, undersized front 7. These are things you save for OSU and PSU.

 

Conceptually/Schematically, teams pretty much are who they are. We’re preparing for OSU to come out in spread formations and run the same stretch-zone running scheme they’ve ran the past few years. We have repped a base defense designed to counter that look and their strengths. OSU isn’t going to deviate, they’re not going to all of a sudden become a power-I formation team. They’ll run new plays and add wrinkles, but the scheme itself isn’t changing.
 

While Michigan has repped the base defense for stopping OSU, Minter hasn’t shown all the wrinkles, coverages, and pressures he plans to bring out. We aren’t tipping our hand defensively any more than we are offensively.