After a weird low of just three guys showing up last January, a third of Michigan's signees (so far?) for the 2019 class have arrived on campus and started participating in workouts. I thought it worth going over the Michigan history of early enrollees and seeing if a jump on their development has much of an effect on their careers.

Enrolling Early: History and Statistics

The practice only became common in college football in the mid-2000s, and Michigan's first January participant wasn't until 2005. Unsurprisingly the number drops during coaching transitions; 2008, 2011 and 2015 had just four early entrants between them. This year's was only the second class that could commit in December and you're really committing to the school if you graduate early and start college classes before you know who your position coach is going to be.

These numbers have a ton of noise in them, but they do tell us a few things. I highlighted the big differences I noticed:

The extra spring practice does seem to matter when it comes to freshmen who contribute early, but it also seems to lead to greater attrition; even counting the players on the team—a good many of are yet fated to leave with eligibility remaining—HALF(!) of Michigan's early enrollees left Ann Arbor before their clocks ran out.

Michigan football scholarship recruits, 1990-2018 (transfers removed)

By their second year on campus the fall enrollees have caught up, and from there the higher attrition and tendency not to redshirt catches up. Just three early enrollees in my study had any starts as a senior: 11 for Devin Gardner in 2014, 11 for Bryan Mone last year, and 5 for Kevin Grady in 2009. Note that none of those three redshirted (on purpose) their first years.

Michigan is currently projected to start five to seven (Ruiz, DPJ, Black, Kemp, McKeon, Ambry, and Ben Mason) of the 16 non-freshman early enrollees currently on the roster, versus 17 to 19 of the 44 non-freshman fall enrollees they have. That tracks with the history of early enrollees versus fall enrollees in the data above.

But we should talk about the noise because there are different reasons for players to enroll early. My suspicion here is there's a certain type of player who committed to Michigan when there was a perception of early playing time available, and subsequently a lot of what we're seeing above is an effect of a certain type of early enrollee winning some of those open jobs, while those who don't are leaving early.

So let's do this anecdotally. I did this by organizing by the reasons they enrolled early, those being:

1. The Class Quarterback: because early enrollment is common for this position
2. The Immediate Need: because the guy is expected to be a big contributor by Week 1
3. The Immediate Competitor: because he was expected to be college-ready out of high school
4. The Came to Play: because he's going to shock the world by being a big contributor by Week 1
5. The Get Outta Dodge: because dorm life >>>> past life
6. The Collegian: because he's just done with high school

[After THE JUMP: weapons of choice]

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The Class Quarterback:

Christopher Walken version/Ace

It is typical for a recruiting class to begin with a quarterback, so often these guys are committed long before they arrive. With a steep learning curve an extra spring practice can make a big difference in competing for a job sooner.

2019 Guy: Cade McNamara

Examples: Ryan Mallett (2007), Tate Forcier (2009), Devin Gardner (2010), Wilton Speight (2014), Alex Malzone (2015), Brandon Peters (2016), Joe Milton (2018)

Discussion: Some of these guys were needed for the two-deep right away, but that's another category. It does seem that the spring helps quarterbacks compete earlier. Those who didn't enroll early—Dylan McCaffrey, Shane Morris, Russell Bellomy, Denard Robinson—contributed minimally in their first few years despite some opportunity to do so. Chad Henne didn't enroll early, but if you remember early 2004 he was running a very simplified offense. Tate Forcier used his spring to secure the 2009 starting job over Denard. Ryan Mallett was almost functional when Henne went down in 2007, and anyway was needed on the two-deep to prepare to start the following year. However Gardner and Milton played just enough to preserve their redshirts and looked very freshman-y.

We saw with Alex Malzone, and I suspect we may see it again with Brandon Peters soon, that enrolling early gets you a jump on the credits you need to graduate, making it a lot easier to get your degree and grad transfer with two remaining years of eligibility instead of one. That's a bonus in recruiting: even if you don't win the job, you can get an A+ pro quarterbacking education along with a Michigan degree, then hit the transfer portal as a high-value prospect.

Conclusions? I think you want the quarterbacks to enroll early if possible. You look at how the offense had to be simplified for Denard, or Henne, or Shane Morris when they went in as freshmen. It only helps a little, but Michigan probably has two more victories (2009 and 2007) over Notre Dame from getting their freshman QBs on campus in spring, and might have had another (2004) if they'd done so before.

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The Immediate Need

Not you, Devin—I mean the guy protecting your blindside. [Bryan Fuller]

Michigan is short on bodies for that position, either in need of an immediate starter or immediate depth. If they've got a target they think can help right away they may even push to get him to enroll early. Hopefully the program has recruited multiple high-caliber guys, however, and those enrolling early are just trying to get a jump on an open competition.

2019 Guy: Mazi Smith

Examples: QB Ryan Mallett (2007), QB Tate Forcier (2009), FB Ben Mason (2017), TE Jake Butt (2013), OC Cesar Ruiz (2017), OG Justin Boren (2006), OT Mason Cole (2014), WR Darryl Stonum (2008), WR Ahmir Mitchell (2016), WR DPJ (2017), WR Tarik Black (2017), NT Bryan Mone (2014), DT Will Campbell (2009), DE Taco Charlton (2013), LB Joe Bolden (2012), FS Jarrod Wilson (2012), FS/WR Brian Cole (2015), P Brad Robbins (2017)

Discussion: Most of the guys above did make an impact as true freshmen, including several offensive linemen. Those who didn't often had off-field issues (e.g. Ahmir Mitchell). Note that DPJ and Black started 2017 ahead of similarly high-ranked classmates Oliver Martin and Nico Collins. Taco came in extremely raw, but got up to speed quickly enough to play DE in 10 games in 2013.

By their sophomore years a few of these guys found themselves in competition with classmates who'd closed the gap, but most were starting and no longer looked like fish out of water. Playing early effectively put them in the class ahead of themselves, necessitating the recruitment of an heir sooner.

Conclusions? Compare to some need-based freshman starters who arrived in fall: Charles Woodson, Chad Henne, Martavious Odoms, Craig Roh, Donovan Warren, and Mike Hart were all starters by the end of September. Hart and Odoms played positions that didn't require a steep learning curve, while Henne, Roh and Warren were forced in before they were really ready and showed it. Woodson shouldn't be compared to mere mortals.

Now look at the list of freshman who arrived to fill spots on depleted depth charts but didn't actually seize a starting job until mid-October or later: Ben Bredeson, Desmond Morgan, Marlin Jackson, Ty Law, Blake Countess, Courtney Avery, Devin Funchess, Amani Toomer, Damon Denson, David Bowens, Larry Stevens, Brandon Harrison, Aubrey Solomon, Mario Manningham, Kevin Koger, Devin Asiasi, Boubacar Cissoko, James Ross, Leon Hall.

What I think we're seeing is the learning curve for a freshman is steep to start, and that spring practice will accelerate a freshman to readiness by on average six weeks of season—not coincidentally the length of spring practice itself.

The cases of past DTs to crack the two-deep early are worth reviewing with regard to Mazi Smith.

Enrolled early:

• Will Campbell was expected to start immediately in 2009, since Taylor and Johnson were graduated. He did enroll early but fell well short of his expectations.
• Bryan Mone passed Ondre Pipkins immediately, and was threatening Willie Henry's job, starting over him against PSU

Arrived in fall:

• Alan Branch burned his redshirt midway through his freshman year but on a strong depth chart; that doesn't say much more than Alan Branch was really good.
• Mike Martin joined a DT depth chart in 2008 that was Terrance Taylor, Will Johnson, and some guys (Jason Kates, Marques Slocum, Adam Patterson, Renaldo Sagesse, etc.) Martin had a bad game against Utah but was functional by ND.
• Aubrey Solomon. Michigan went with a gimmicky 3-3-5 in its opener while working in Aubrey slowly.

That could all just mean if he's good he'll be good. In general arriving early does seem to help with short-term depth chart battles and gets a guy prepared to play by September, but those are short-term gains.

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The Immediate Competitor

Ruiz was starting at guard over a healthy Onwenu by season's end. [Eric Upchurch]

These are the five-stars or players Michigan thought should be five-stars who were expected to play as true freshmen because they were supposedly arriving college-ready. When you recruit a player like this, even if there isn't a promise of immediate playing time there's an understandable expectation of it.

2019 Guys: Zach Charbonnet (spring), Daxton Hill (fall), Chris Hinton (fall)

Enrolled early: Kevin Grady (2005), Carlos Brown (2006), DPJ (2017), Devin Bush (2016), Cesar Ruiz (2017), Ambry Thomas (2017), Drake Harris (2014)

Arrived in fall: Gary, Peppers, Ricky Powers, Fargas, Toomer, Terrell & Walker, Prescott Burgess, Ernest Shazor, Woodley, Deollo Anderson, Henne, B-Graham, Baraka, Aubrey, Mercury Hayes, Marlin, Drew Henson, Jamie Mignon, Gabe Watson, Derrick Green, Woodson

Discussion: These guys are an interesting case study because the expectation is they're ready to play immediately.\

Charbonnet could use the opportunity to battle for extra carries, and that did work out for Kevin Grady, who arrived after 2004 freshmen Mike Hart and Max Martin. Grady passed Martin in fall, and earned more touches in his freshman year than the rest of his career combined, rushing 121 times for 483 yards and 5 TDs, also starting twice in place of injured Mike Hart.

It did take most of the guys who arrived in fall more than fall to earn a full-time starting job unless the job was relatively straightforward (e.g. Peppers at nickel). Perhaps our expectations for Daxton and Hinton to play right away should be scaled back to deeper into the season.

Conclusions? We don't have a large enough sample size of those who arrived in spring to say anything for certain, however it does appear at a glance that "5-star: immediate impact!" really means "impact after a couple of months of practice" and that enrolling early starts the counter. Again, it does help them win the job.

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The Came to Play

The ultra-rare Vince Helmuth at his peak photo, from his MVictors interview in 2009

This is the lower-rated recruit, often a flier but can also be a solid four-star, often from a transition class, who signed up for an open-ish spot on the depth chart and arrived early to compete for it right away. Often there's a higher-rated guy in the same class arriving in fall he's expected to compete with, or a low-ceiling returning backup. I differentiate between these guys and the "Immediate Need" types because these guys winning a top job in fall is possible but isn't considered likely.

2019 Guys: CB Jalen Perry. Also slot Mike Sainristil is right on the border of that Immediate Need/Wants to Play Immediately line.

Examples: RBs Stephen Hopkins (2010), Kingston Davis (2016), FB Vince Helmuth (2007), OTs Logan Tuley-Tillman (2013), Ja'Raymond Hall (2017); DE Anthony LaLota (2009), LBs Mike Jones (2009), Kaleb Ringer (2012), Michael Ferns (2014), SSs Artis Chambers (2007), Vladimir Emilien (2009); CBs Greg Brown (2011), Ross Douglas (2013), Myles Sims (2018)

Discussion: The examples above include only the guys I am fairly sure arrived expecting to compete right away for a job, though the comments weren't always public. In my mind I call this type of early enrollee the "Greg Brown" after the guy who committed to Rich Rod in 2009 and enrolled early for Hoke 2011 because Michigan was coming off of this:

One of these guys is Artis Chambers.

Greg Brown didn't crack the depth chart in spring and transferred before fall practice. Compare that with similarly rated classmates Raymon Taylor, who would start 31 games for Michigan but none their freshman year, Delonte Hollowell, who'd start one game as a 5th year senior, and Tamani Carter, a late Hoke addition who arrived in fall and left a year later. Would Brown, who wound up at a JuCo back in Findlay, have been a Hollowell or a Carter if he'd not arrived in January? More importantly, would you want him to be?

You can also call it the Artis Chambers, a safety who was only rarely mentioned in practice reports his freshman year, and then only as a young guy learning the ropes blah blah blah. He did not redshirt, and played the first four games, but was then ruled ineligible for Big Ten play because his high school spitefully refused to sign some paperwork. He transferred to Ball State after he couldn't crack a bad safety depth chart 2008 season, and is thus immortalized as guy with the shy smile who stumps everybody trying to name the faces in our "Never Forget" graphic.

You'll also note the low hit rate. This doesn't go for all of them, but in a lot of cases I think in general high school stars get an inflated idea of their abilities. At least it's damn near universal that they'll get to college and be surprised by the skill and talent around them. It's also a near universal thing that players want to be on the field. So there's bound to be a class of players who thinks they can play early at a place like Michigan and then discover they can't.

That's fine, but the downside is if you look at the names above, there are a lot of guys who didn't redshirt and a lot of guys who transferred. They might have had the skills to compete if they'd waited around—though some clearly did not, or got hurt, or had other issues derail their careers. They're also the guys the three-star mafia like to bring up, and in some cases they have a point.

On the other hand if they took up a scholarship it wasn't for long.

Conclusions? From a program standpoint, you don't want to get in a position where a Greg Brown might win a job. Once you're there, eh, take a swing, since a whiff doesn't really cost you a scholarship for long. Vlad Emilien and Kaleb Ringer couldn't get healthy enough—Michigan found that out right away. Vince Helmuth competed with Obi Oluigbo right up to the end of camp. Stephen Hopkins accepted a role as a running fullback when he didn't secure the starting RB job; Kingston Davis didn't. LTT was a project who thought he was a four-year starter, but he came around and was better than the alternatives last year.

It might make you a titch nervous about Perry, who moved about the highest levels of high school football to secure playing time and also decommitted from UGA when it appeared they were recruiting over him. His situation however is not comparable to the DBs whom Michigan was taking back when the "Never Forget" banner was active. Perry's situation is more like that of Myles Sims, who did end up redshirting last year with the rest of his CB class. I also can't guess the long-term situation at slot receiver since Michigan's bringing in three athletes to compete for the spot.

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The Get Outta Dodge Type

Hawthorne came to play hybrid LB for Rich Rod but ended up a contributor at WLB for Hoke. He wore #7 for a high school teammate who died. [Eric Upchurch]

Sometimes the ol' hometown isn't something you're going to miss at all. Being a college freshman is a kind of poverty, but being a college freshman on scholarship at Michigan sounds a lot better than the places and circumstances they'd be in for a final semester of high school. Outside of the University of Michigan it's extremely common to see early enrollees who arrive in spring to take remedial courses and meet the baseline of academic requirements—the way Michigan handles academics is if they can get a recruit on track pretty early (like early in their junior years) they'll do that, and if they can't they usually won't bother. Note: since their situation is a bit different, the "I'm doing this for academic reasons" early enrollees will go in another category, and if I'm not sure they belong here they'll go there.

2019 Guys: none

Examples: RBs Vincent Smith (2009), Austin White (2010), WR Jerald Robinson (2010), OL Kyle Bosch (2013), LBs Brandin Hawthorne, SS J'Marick Woods (2017)

Discussion: Rich Rod shouldn't have bothered with Austin White (if MSU isn't sure they want a guy due to off-field issues you absolutely do not) and Jerald Robinson was a swing at a track star just in case. The rest of these guys were contributors or stars who benefited from getting on campus and getting acclimated to campus life.

Conclusions? Uh, early enrollment is good. Let's keep it?

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The Collegian Type

Once a hot Florida receiving recruit, Ricardo Miller wanted to get to Michigan so badly he transferred to Pioneer, which didn't use receivers. [Dell Callihan/UMGoBlue.com]

These guys might be academically done with high school and ready for the next challenge, or planning out their long-term careers and enrolling early to access more options down the road with early graduation. Often they're kids of former players, or are coming from a prep or another kind of atypical high school, or maybe just really really excited to get to Michigan ASAP. This is sort of a control group because it's a lot of players who enrolled early for mostly non-football reasons and for the most part didn't play early, so we get to see if there's any kind of long-term effect of early enrollment.

2019 Guys: Gabe Newburg, Jack Stewart, Erick All, David Ojabo

Examples: WRs Jeremy Jackson (2010), Freddy Canteen (2014), Ricardo Miller (2010); TE Sean McKeon (2016); OL Christian Pace (2010), DTs Donovan Jeter (2017), DEs Carlo Kemp (2016), Corey Malone-Hatcher (2017), Taylor Upshaw (2018), FS Dymonte Thomas (2013), Jaylen Kelly-Powell (2017), CBs Brandon Watson (2014), Benjamin St-Juste (2017)

Discussion: I think it's most notable that most of these guys did end up redshirting, and none of them were major contributors as freshmen—Dymonte's redshirt was a source of contention at the time; JKP's was more understandable in context. Anyway except for the two safeties who then burned their redshirts it doesn't seem that enrolling early had a major effect on any of their careers.

Conclusions? Control is control.

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Wrap: Does Early Enrollment Help?

This wasn't a large sample, but I spotted a clear pattern of all freshmen—even the five-stars—needing a good six or eight weeks in addition to fall camp to get far enough up the curve that they're able to be on the field at a Big Ten+ level. This of course has a lot to do with positions and other factors, but in general enrolling early matters the most in September of their freshman years and matters very little by the following fall.

For the school, I think an early enrollment is helpful if the player is expected to play right away, and because some players could use the extra time on campus for whatever reason. For players, it's helpful in early position battles, and helpful accelerating them toward a degree while preserving eligibility, and only harmful if it induces unrealistic expectations for playing time. For the player's long-term prospects I don't think it makes much difference.