switch26

October 26th, 2010 at 5:59 PM ^

After watching MSU's O line get dominated for pretty much the whole game against NW, it is hard for me to think MSU can win this game.  I don't see them being able to pass all over Iowa the whole game either if their run game is doing nothing.

 

Should be interesting to see if MSU's O-Line shows up and protects cousins

locd32

October 27th, 2010 at 10:21 AM ^

MSU's O-line got dominated? Their leading rusher averaged 7.3ypc. They didn't give up any sacks until the final drive of the game when Cousins was holding on to the ball too long to try and force plays instead of throwing it away. They only had two other TFL on their true freshman running back who looked like he was walking on ice out there (didn't have wet weather cleats on). Cousins also had time to disect NW for 29-43 passing for 329 yards and 3 TD's. How is that MSU's O-line getting dominated?

Wolvmarine

October 26th, 2010 at 6:04 PM ^

I don't want to see Sparty win anymore than the next person, but it would be funny if HYPOTHETICALLY, they were to win out and at least 2 other teams did the same, and Sparty was left out to the MNC game. 

Valonqar

October 26th, 2010 at 6:05 PM ^

Iowa -6.5 does not, as the OP suggested, indicate that Vegas thinks they are a better team than MSU.  The line is set to get an equal number of bets on both sides, so that the money payed out to the winning side will more or less balance out the money coming in on the losing side; The House takes a cut of all bets.  Wash, rinse, repeat.

Pesonally, i'd find a different game to bet on.

Don

October 26th, 2010 at 6:05 PM ^

It makes me really ill to think this, but this looks like their magical season to me. Every freaking break they've needed, they've gotten, and they've made plenty of good plays on their own, too. I think they've got the best collection of offensive skill players in the conference, and a decent defense that's opportunistic. If we can put up over 500 yards on that vaunted Iowa defense, I think MSU can too, and score more points while they're at it.

God, I hope I'm wrong.

Yooper

October 26th, 2010 at 6:07 PM ^

the spread.  Spartans have a long history of not living up to expectations, so the gamblers are not yet believers.  Thus Vegas has to pay a premium in points to attract MSU money.  For good reason in my view.  Spartans won't win, won't cover.

lhglrkwg

October 26th, 2010 at 6:18 PM ^

i foresee sparty going undefeated. it makes me ill to come to that realization but if they can get through iowa then i just don't see them losing. they are way too level-headed this year. they don't seem to get paniced or do classic sparty mistakes. given, if they go undefeated to the MNC game or the rose bowl, i'm fairly certain auburn/oregon/boise will lay the wood to them but that won't stop them from saying "when's the last time scUM went to the rose bowl????" for the next few years...or forever

SFBlue

October 26th, 2010 at 6:25 PM ^

I see this as a 3-4 point difference, in Sparty's favor, as much as I hate to say it.  This is evenly matched in nearly all aspects, but I see Sparty's run game as the difference maker.  For sure, Sparty's history of fuck-ups is driving this spread. 

NateVolk

October 26th, 2010 at 6:54 PM ^

When you get two big conference higher profile teams like this, I doubt that perception drives the betting patterns behind these lines.  More likely it is the nuts and bolts matchups.

But it is noteworthy how little Michigan State is mentioned when the national media talks about a team that is considered likely to play for all the marbles.  They get no respect. 

You'll hear that card played by a player or Dantonio this week if they haven't already.  With their ability to generate good fortune, hard to bet against them.

lhglrkwg

October 26th, 2010 at 7:19 PM ^

i cant believe how little i've been hearing about state possibly going to the championship game. aside from boise, i don't think anyone has an easier road to 12-0. TCU at least has to play utah before it can go undefeated. after iowa, MSU basically plays 3 MAC teams

i'd bet MSU will get screwed if 2+ teams go undefeated. not enough hype for them. they definitely won't get in if auburn and oregon go undefeated. i would think they could jump boise though.

Magnum P.I.

October 26th, 2010 at 10:30 PM ^

Not playing OSU is going to really hurt Sparty. It's not like voters just happen to not notice that MSU isn't playing the best team in the Big Ten this year. Where is MSU going to get its push to jump BSU or TCU? If they beat Iowa and don't jump them after that, then they're not going to jump them at all. If they go undefeated, it's not like they'll have finished out the season with a classic matchup like Big 12 and SEC teams and U-M are forced to. It would have helped their cause if Penn State were their typically good selves this year. But if that were the case, then MSU wouldn't go undefeated because they'd get housed by a good PSU team in Happy Valley.  

SpartanDan

October 26th, 2010 at 10:51 PM ^

... that it's Ohio State that won't be playing the best team in the Big Ten.

I do agree that we won't jump Oregon or Auburn, nor would we deserve to. (We shouldn't have to in order to get a crack at them for the title, but that's another argument entirely.) But I think there is a possibility we jump TCU or Boise (especially Boise). Bad as Minn-Purdue-PSU are this year, TCU and Boise play even worse schedules the rest of the way.

Magnum P.I.

October 26th, 2010 at 11:29 PM ^

you could make that argument, but OSU isn't the one making its case for a championship game berth. MSU may be.

I agree that there is a chance that you jump BSU and TCU, but I think that if it's going to happen at all, it will have to happen after a hypothetical win over Iowa this weekend. If the standings are 1. Oregon; 2. Auburn; 3. BSU; 4. TCU; 5. MSU after next weekend, why, as a voter, would an MSU victory over Minnesota, Purdue, or PSU compel you to change their place in that order?

Juicy

October 26th, 2010 at 8:18 PM ^

I think the game will be closer than 6.5 thats for sure, not sure if sparty is going to be able to go on the road at night and play their best game. They couldnt even play their best at NWU and ended up sneaking out a victory.

 

Sparty covers but who knows who wins.

SpartanDan

October 26th, 2010 at 10:55 PM ^

That said, I agree on the conclusion. I figure this one's about 50-50 straight up (results against the two common opponents - @Mich, home v. Wisc - both favor MSU significantly; on a neutral field I'd probably say MSU -3 or so). I don't think MSU will get blown out, but I'm not confident we'll win.

bronxblue

October 26th, 2010 at 8:19 PM ^

This really seems like a tough game to wager on.  Last week we saw an MSU team come out very flat (really the past two weeks) but escape against inferior competition.  This week, they know this is a big game, so I doubt they won't be ready.  Plus, it is an afternoon game, so the specter of walking into a packed, rabid Kinnick Stadium (?) at night won't be there.  What will either happen is MSU keeps it close and pulls the game out late, or Iowa just destroys them early and they Sparty away the game by 10+.  I really don't see it going any other way, and both scenarios are equally probable.  Seeing how this season has played out, I fully expect  MSU to win this game close and then win out, miss a chance at the BCS title game, then get destroyed in a bowl game against decent competition. 

funkywolve

October 27th, 2010 at 9:10 AM ^

I think they are 4-0 agains the spread in big ten play.  The late TD against NU had Sparty covering for me in that game.  They easily covered in the Michigan and Wisconsin games and I think they covered against Illinois.