Predicting the Wolverines 2010 schedule
UConn- With RR knowing this team and beating them down every time at WVU, this shouldn't be a problem, I say we get the W.
@ND- Brian Kelly is coming in with a new QB and a lost star WR. He should be focusing on recruiting more than this season, we get the W.
UMass- Easy team, no doubt, W.
BGSU- If this was Toledo, we wouldnt have a problem, we had nobody really in 2008 to work with Toledo, and BGSU reminds me of Toledo, W.
@Indiana- Depending on last years performance, and the guys we got this year with the growth of Forcier and Roundtree, Indiana should be a challenge, but we get the W.
MSU- Comforting, isn't it? We should get MSU done this year if we don't mess up like last year, if everything goes right, we get the W.
Iowa- I'm not so sure about this one, sure we lost last year by a Denard pick, but Robinson is more accurate, and Iowa having a previously hurt QB Stanzi, he could have a problem. But I just can't be so sure about this one, W.
@PSU-They don't have a QB, their defense is softer. We should get something on them, but I think we're going to lose by a few points. L.
Illinois- We should of gotten them done last year, but this year, we WILL get them done. W.
@Purdue- Lost in '08 and '09 by late mistakes, since Valentin and their star WR is gone, we should get the W.
Wisconsin- '08 was great when we beat them, but they have a better RB and a better QB. I'm going with the L here guys, Wisconsin will beat us by taking advantage of mistakes.
@OSU- Our defense should know Pryor's plan by now, but we're not going to beat them like that, we need an offense that will drive and drive, in '08 we didn't do that because our QB's had no experience. In '09 we didn't do that because Forcier threw to many ints.
We will beat Ohio State.
Final record: 10-2
Well I'll be happy if this happens, but I would be shocked if we're better than 8-4
This is really the prediction of no mistakes like we did against...
Iowa
MSU
OSU
Illinois
Purdue
Of course there will be mistakes we will make, so these predictions dont matter, its whats going to happen on the field. With mistakes, I say we go 7-5 at the worst.
It's been at least 2 days without one of these threads.
I'm working on one, but I can't decide if Craig Roh uses his right or left arm to tackle pryor on the inside blitz with 9:47 left in the second quarter on the 3rd and 7 from their own 47 (set up by the 8 yard run off tackle on 1st down, false start penalty, and incomplete pass on second down of course). I'm thinking of right but there's just something that just doesn't fit like i want it to. Maybe it'll be right, but then a strong assist from the left...hmm...I'll let you know
A lot can change in two days...
You are the king of wishful thinking. 7-5 is about as optimistic as I am.
I was just listening to this song before I clicked on this thread so this comment made me laugh
If I were to predict UM's schedule for this season I would guess
9-4: UConn
9-11:@ ND
9-18: UMass
9-25: BGSU
10-2: @Indiana
10-9: MSU
10-16: Iowa
10-30: @ PSU
11-6: Illinois
11-13: @Purdue
11-20: WIsc
11-27: @OSU
This is my bold prediction for what the schedule will be this year. Really going out on a limb.
I'm impressed that you're willing to go out on a limb like that. Do you have a bold prediction for the time of the UConn game too?
These guys boldly predict 3:30: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/mich-m-footbl-sched.html
However, they also boldly predict that the Michigan-OSU game will be shown on channel TBA, which I'm pretty sure doesn't even exist, so I'm taking their predictions with a grain of salt.
Most likely that's a typo. A and S are right next to each other, so they probably meant to type TBS but put in TBA by mistake. Hopefully TBS has better football coverage than their baseball coverage.
Or maybe TBA means to be announced? Just a hunch.
Sarcasm is somewhere near serious in the dictionary. Just a hunch.
Well fuck me. I deserved that, don't know how I missed it. My apologies.
They just don't have the guts to go on the record!
If you right I'll
@ND- Brian Kelly is coming in with a new QB and a lost star WR. He should be focusing on recruiting more than this season, we get the W.Where has Floyd gone to be lost? he was at the first day of practice yesterday. Recruiting is almost finished, only looks to be 3-5 slots left for ND in this class as it is now and they've actually changed most of their focus to 2012 recruits it seems. ND may lose, I doubt it, but it wont be because of the reasons you stated.
Just out of curiousity, why do you doubt Notre Dame will lose?
I think ND's defense and run game will be strong enough to control the game. I like the way NDs strengths line up against UM's weaknesses and vice versa. But there is still 5 weeks till it matters.
Michigan ran for 190 yards against Notre Dame last season with Forcier at quarterback. If Denard Robinson starts, are you confident that number will decrease? Because I don't see Notre Dame controlling any game in which they give up 200 yards rushing.
If anything, I fear the Brian Kelly passing attack. Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph should have big games. I still have doubts about the ND defense, though
no, ND did not come anywhere close to controlling anything on defense last year. 190 rushing yards is the perfect example of that. I fully understand your, or anyones, doubts after the way the ND defense played last year. Can't really show anything until sept. 4th though to change anyones mind.
i wouldn't go on the RCMB and say "personally i think UM will win and i disagree with your contention that MSU will win" with absolutely no backing and a decent list of contradictory evidence readily available for them to provide.
I have evidence but its all projection or circumstantial, which isn't really proof of anything. The only numbers with this staff come from the weight room and that isn't going to be evidence of anything till people see it on the field.
I can cite statistics from UC but it was a different team, with a difference schedule and under a vastly different situation. What stats would actually change your mind knowing that? Until the first game with purdue, there isn't much I can say that is absolute proof ND will win against UM, its mostly just optimism.
I guess I'm just not sure where the optimism stems from. Brian Kelly is a fine coach, but he is no miracle worker. ND has new guys at key positions on offense and they have a long history of underachieving on defense. It will take more than one year for Kelly to turn that around, if he ever does. Just my epinion, though
I fully understand being skeptical, honestly its basically the same way I feel about UM in the match up.
August 9th, 2010 at 11:11 PM ^
Come on now...stay off the preseason KoolAid...your weight room projections and circumstantial evidence are what has led to fieldgoal jesus over the past number of years.
August 9th, 2010 at 11:15 PM ^
not used to a coach that is so believable in regards to winning. Here go tell me I am wrong, Coach Kelly Media Session (its from today)
I think ND's defense and run game will be strong enough to control the game.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, etc., etc.
I just want to be on record stating that this was quite possibly your greatest post ever.
UM's weaknesses play into ND's strengths? The D-Line, as a corps, may very well be stronger than last year's because of experience, etc. A first year QB will not exploit the secondary the way others will. The linebacking corps will be better than last year, etc. And UM won that game. Even if ND returns an improved defense, UM returns an improved offense. I really am unsure what line items you see as strong indicators when your major X factors are glaring question marks.
These are some of the matchups that I like, to be honest. ND's starting receivers are proven to be productive, Kelly's passing offense is proven to be productive, but Crist hasn't proven anything either way on a big stage. UM's secondary wasn't good last year, and it lost both starting corners since ND played them. It's a new base system with what sounds like a lot of position battles yet to be settled. Just way too many unknowns to expect there is a dramatic difference from last season.
I am not sure why you think UM's LBers played better, it was pretty bad both ways. Both sides are mostly unknown as of now, both switching systems. It might be just me, but it means something for all of ND's front 7 to be playing in their natural positions once again. Last year when Diaco brought 10 new starters into UC's defense they were very productive in sacks, TFL and turnover margin there is no reason to not have optimism for the unit. I have no idea how productive this DC's 3-3-5 will be at UM and I got the feeling he doesn't know either, since he hasn't run it before if I remember correctly.
Here's the thing about Kelly:
His best defensive team at Cincinnati was the first one he coached, which had been recruited by, and taught fundamentals by the Dantonio staff.
His worst defensive team at Cincinnati was his fourth year. That team was recruited and developed by Kelly's staff.
Looking at these facts, one has to wonder if they will have any improvement at all this year. The offense last year at ND was downright awesome, with Clausen slinging the ball all over the place, and achieving one of the highest QB ratings in the country, so it's a bit of a stretch to think it will be better with a new QB, new O-line, and minus one first round wide receiver.
As far as the defense, I guess it can't get any worse, but Kelly is no defensive mastermind. His strengths and weaknesses are the same as Fat Charlie's (Except Charlie's weakness for jelly doughnuts).
Side note about Cincinati last year, they lost 10 of 11 defensive starters from the year before.
I thought that was strange to lose so many starters in one year. I can't recall anything like that at Michigan since I've been following football. Just an oddity.
Here is the NCAA's comparative rank of the last three years at UC in descending order ,2009, 2008, 2007. NCAA doesn't have ranking data for 2006.
Total Defense - 48, 52, 50
Pass - 49, 57, 89
Rush - 56, 20, 19
Scoring - 24, 26, 13
Turnover Margin - 12, 92, 6
Sacks (rank) - 8, 9, 8
TFL (Rank) - 3, 23, 18
The only game he coached in 2006 at UC was their bowl game. So yeah they were Dantonio's recruits. You may want to check your facts again.
Very well, I was going by the total yardage statistics provided by Rivals, and thought Kelly had been hired for the 2006 season, so I was wrong in that respect.
Still, in his 3 years at Cincinnati, Kelly had one of the bottom 3 defenses in the conference for two of them (YPG). The dude can coach an offense like whoah, but so could Charlie, especially in 2009. I'm sure Kelly is a better defensive coach than fatass (It's hard not to be), but to think that the team will go from absolute zero execution to even an average rate with a brand new coaching staff and a change in philosophy is just a bit iffy to me.
No problem, I was real confused by citing 2006 I had to go back and check to see if I was totally missing something.
Something that should be taken into account with the defensive statistics is the time of possession; which was one of the lowest numbers in the country last year, largely because of how fast the offense scored. So the yardage numbers are probably a bit inflated on what to expect this year, with what is likely a less explosive offense than was at UC last year. If we actually compared the defensive yards vs time on the field it probably wouldn't look as bad.
Come on Irish, you know he meant Golden Tate. Don't try to act cute about that. The bottom line is that ND doesn't have the same firepower it did last year. Now that may balance out because they have a competent coach , but to pretend the offensive talent is equal to last year is as much wishful thinking as is thinking UM will go 10-2.
I thought he was talking about Floyd, not sure why. Anyway, I agree ND doesn't have the same talent level on offense but it hasn't dropped off dramatically either.
so a freshman qb is equal to jimmy clausen? there might be a similar butt wiggle in store but that's ridiculous.
I'm pretty sure Crist is a RS Soph who was a 5 star QB coming out of high school.
i should have said "first year starter" - i make that mistake a lot honestly
Yeah, he was a 5 star in high school. What has he done at ND? I don't know if he's taken a meaningful snap. Saying that he's around the same level as Jimmy Clausen before he's played a down as the starter is ridiculous.
Well I realize he hasn't done anything at ND(hence my above statement about the talent level being down). I was just playing Devil's advocate on how one could be optimistic about the QB situation.
He tore an ACL, which I believe puts him in perfect position for 3 straight Heismans...
ANY Notre Dame quarterback is ALWAYS the next Joe Montana. Especially before they take a single snap on Saturday! I'm pretty sure that's in the NCAA rulebook somewhere! :)
I would be more concerned about how the holes left by the graduating o-linemen are filled. The skill positions will fill in nicely but it's hard to replace so much experience upfront.
With the season starting soon, Irish is getting a little more saucy than usual. I've seen him get negged a lot lately. I think he's worried about the UM-ND game and how embarassed he'll be to come back on the board after that game.
wasn't embarrassed last year, don't think I would be this year, just would be disappointed
[Insert team here] may lose,
I doubt it, but it wont be because of the reasons you stated.
You could say that for most of these predictions. We will beat Notre Dame because Kelly's too busy recruiting, we will beat Bowling Green because they remind him of Toledo, we will beat Iowa because Stanzi was hurt last year, and we will beat Purdue because they lost Reggie Valentine, who for the record wasn't their best receiver. (Keith Smith was, and he's returning.)
Do you really doubt that we'll beat you this year though, I mean, it looks like a toss-up.