SIAP: 2018 season a "tipping point" for Harbaugh
Basically, Bud Elliott of SB nation (their recruiting beat writer) thinks that Harbaugh needs to "actually win some big games" otherwise recruiting could/will implode a la Brady Hoke following 2013.
Michigan did not sign a top-100 prospect in the class of 2018, and the 2019 class hasn’t has a top-200 player commit this calendar year.
... recruiting against Michigan right now is pretty easy: Harbaugh has never won the Big Ten East. He’s never even finished second. He has two ties for third and, most recently, a fourth-place finish.
His offense has been a disappointment. Michigan’s finishes in yards per game so far under Harbaugh are 105th, 58th, and 69th.
An honest assessment of the 2018 roster reveals a deep, talented team primed for a bounce-back. Almost all of the players on this roster were recruited by Harbaugh. It’s go time. If Michigan can go 9-3 or 10-2 in the regular season and win its bowl game, then Harbaugh’s 2017 really will look like a blip compared to 10-win seasons in 2015, 2016, and 2018.
Beating the teams on the field against whom Michigan recruits would really help.
Penn State’s recruiting is on a big roll. Ohio State might sign the No. 1 class in the nation. Wisconsin is putting together its best recruiting class in recent memory.
Harbaugh is 0-3 against Ohio State, 1-2 against Michigan State, 2-1 against Penn State, and 1-1 against Wisconsin. All four are on the schedule this season, as is Notre Dame.
Winning a conference title wouldn’t hurt either. Harbaugh finished second in the Pac-10 twice at Stanford, but has never won an FBS conference.
Link: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/5/24/17383732…
The 2015 MSU loss was so random & unlikely. The 2016 OSU loss was a call that could have gone either way and it went the other way. You change those two games alone, and chance would say it's entirely likely with no difference in players, play calling, coaching, etc. and our record against MSU is 2-1 and OSU is 1-2. That would make an incredibly big difference in perception based on nothing more than chance.
I do agree however, that we need to win some big games this year. We can't afford to lose more than 2-3 games against ND, PSU, MSU, Wiscy, & OSU and we cannot lose to both MSU & OSU. Personally I like our chances against everyone on the schedule. There's no way we escape undefeated, but in any one game I do not expect us to look bad. I think Patterson, 2nd year DPJ, a healthy Black, HigdonEvans, Gentry/McKeon, and another year of experience on the o-line (and Warriner) will make for a much improved offense. We still have weaknesses, but I think we match up well against everyone on the schedule. A big win against PSU or OSU would have a big impact. That being said, I think Harbaugh can and has won with less heralded recruits. I do not think however, regardless of what UM accomplishes on the field, they will ever consistently out-recruit OSU as long as Meyer is there. So, if that is the barometer we can forget about it now.
Greg Frey and Pep Hamilton turned out to be bad hires. But I think Ed Warinner and Jim McElwain are going to turn out to be great hires.
Chris Partridge coaching safeties is going to be fantastic too.
I've got a good 'gut' feeling about this season. I think the QB position is going to deliver and be a difference maker. And after years of mediocre play I believe the OL will take a big step forward. Michigan has every advantage in the book -- coaching, facilities, recruiting, stadium, fans, exposure, etc -- and we've had below average luck for years. This season the tables will turn in our favor. National championship, maybe not. But the B1G best be on notice.
Ben Herbert replacing Kevin Tolbert is going to make a difference. No more close games slipping through Michigan's fingers in the 2nd half.
People seem to forget that our program was mired in dysfunction for 8 years (2007-2014) and experienced 3 (!) coaching transitions, 2 of which involved attempts to completely rebuild the roster. That's why we are in a boom/bust cycle.
What we really need, if you take a long-term view, is stability in the program and relatively even class sizes. If we get that, we can become a gap-blocking version of Wisconsin, only with better skill players.
Sure, I want to go 11-1 and win the conference too. But I'm a skeptical realist by nature and just don't think we have an evenly-enough distributed mix of talent and experience to make that happen against our 2018 schedule. So I'm patient--as tough as that can be sometimes. I believe we will get there, starting in 2019, and that--once we do--we will be in a very good place for a very long time.
If Michigan fails to meet your expectations in 2018, what would you like to see happen?
If we go 8-4 are you going to call for Harbaugh to be fired?
No definitley not. The schedule is really tough and he would still deserve a 5th year. However, that 5th year would be his last shot. Unfortunelty there is a good chance we are losing a lot of talent after this season it would just be such a waste to have players like Peppers, Gary, Hurst, Bush, Butt, Lewis, etc and never have them win anything. Who knows we might win every game by 1 point but we might also lose every game by 1 point. I just want football to start
The only really great players who are sure to leave are Winovich and Higdon. We'd also lose JBB, Kinnell, Perry and Furbush--all of whom are contributors but none of whom are world beaters. We *might* also lose Gary, Patterson, L. Hill and/or Bush Jr., but I'm guessing that only Gary and Patterson are big risks to forego their senior year.
You'd fire a coach, with a winning percentage, including two 10 wins seasons (which are 50% of the double digit win seasons they've had since 2004) just because he hasn't won a Conference Championship and has a losing record vs the "rivals"?
Damn too bad I can't send you to 2012 and make you a Clemson Fan.
4-8 vs the "rivals"
hadn't finished in the top10
and even his one ACC championship only got him up to #14, and they still finished at #22
But those naive southerners who just unabashedly love their teams stuck with that soggy son of a bitch, how'd that work out for 'em?
And to answer what you're thinking: Yes, UofM is about the same as Clemson in 2010/'11.
They had the '12 and '13 classes and '14 was shaping up to be pretty good.
Hoke had brought the D back from the dark ages.
Harbaugh needed 5 to 7 more years to get the NFL out of his system.
But you and your group of precious flowers: the petulant: the ignorant, the I want my championship and I want it NOW NOW NOW! and I'm gonna sit here and hold my breath until I get it!, you reactionaries had to implode. And then you complain about the results, start talking in ultimatums and the whole F'n cycle strats all over again.
And I'll STILL root hard for my 3* underdogs to get to 9 wins!
I hope Manuel has more patience than you do.
I'm no Harbaugh slappy—the amount of brain-dead Harbaugh idolatry at MGoBlog and in the fanbase in general up till last year was ridiculous, and the ensuing expectations were nuts.
But holding him to some arbitrary "all great coaches win NCs in their third season" horseshit and canning him after he fails to do it, especially after the turmoil of the prior 7 seasons, would be idiotic. He's proven he's an excellent coach at the collegiate level, and deserves the chance to prove he's a great one.
We can't fire Harbaugh because there is no one perceptibly better. Anyone replacing Harbaugh would have to beat Ohio State the first year, a la Tressel did against us.
....why not just unite it yourself?
Step #1: STOP SAYING BULLSHIT LIKE "winning needs to happen now"
Step #2: Ignore articles specifically designed to excite the most unstable fanbase in all of sports
Step #3: "...believe in each other...don't criticise each other...don't talk about..encourage...stick by...keep believing...the Team, the Team, the Team...."
Step #4: Sit back, relax and root the dudes on and do it whether they're defending B1G champs or rebuilding under the new coach.................
..................John L Smith!
Did I scare you enough to take Harbaugh off the hot seat?
So you dont want us to win now? And if Harbaugh went 9-4 every year for the next 30 years you want this fanbase to be happy and root the team? Can i please get whatever your smoking
If you have no expectations you can never be disappointed. Right?
Well the defense we already know will be elite. So if 2018 is dissapointing it will be because of the offense again. If thats the case then Pep needs to go.
Maybe Jim McElwain was hired to be poised to take over Pep Hamilton's place if needed.
Granted, it doesn't always work out (see: Hoke firing Borges for Nussmeier). But then sometimes it does (see: Franklin hiring Moorhead).
Why can't you just ignore the noise and enjoy winning records and not take college rivalries so seriously?
Why is it some people are obsessed with 18-22 year old young men and women winning games for their amusement? Has their life such litte joy that they must find it through the exploits of those whose skills are far superior to their own? And, do they feel throwing out demands of 'win, win, win" on message boards will, in any way, assauge the reality that they would never act so callous and negative if they had to stand in front of the team and express their "Hawts"?
Or is the whole damn college blogsphere just filled with ludicrious rival troll accounts?
Internet fuckwad theory how inescapable you seem.
Fuck it dude,
You guys fan your way, I'll aficionado mine..... but if you run another coach out the door with this neurotic BS........well, well....... I hope all your grand kids go to community college!
....I have now! Amirite?
We'll have a very solid defense, likely as good or even better than last season. This season will all depend on how the offense comes together. We have talent now at QB, WR, TE, RB. The only weak or undeveloped area is the OL. I could see this season ranging from 7 to 12 wins. I think we'll 10-2 or 9-3 but if the offense improves, we may go 11-1 or 12-0. Even if Harbaugh goes 8-4 or 9-3 he will continue to recruit quality players to build depth. The top recruits will only sign with a winner (a team that makes the playoff or has an upward trajectory), so if we finish 3rd or 4th in the B1G east, we'll probably miss out on a lot of top recruits but Harbaugh will find the good 3-4* players to continue building the program. 2019, we lose a lot on defense but our offense should be much improved. Eventually Harbaugh will win his fair share of big games, especially if he ends up coaching at Michigan the next 15 years.
Last season was a disappointment, but Jim's first two seasons were anything but. Jim is here as long as Jim wants to be here. This season will look much more like 2016, will include a rivalry win (hopefully 2).
There isn't a human alive that is more competative than Jim. Whatever it is that needs fixed, he will be all in on fixing.
That's what I think.