Hoops Preview: Northwestern
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#24 Michigan (17-6, 6-4) vs #82 Northwestern (13-9, 4-5) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
WHEN | 7 pm ET, Monday |
LINE |
Michigan -9 (KenPom) Michigan -10 (Torvik) Michigan -7.5 (Vegas) |
TV |
FS1 PBP: Tim Brando Analyst: Bill Raftery |
Right: Great finds in mascot history videos.
THE US
The upcoming five-game stretch until Michigan gets their revenge opportunity against Ohio State all have a similar feel: Michigan should win, comfortably if they're at home. A five-game sweep isn't out of the question, and anything worse than 4-1 is going to be at least a little disappointing.
At this point, the rotation is mostly set with one obvious exception: backup point guard. Jaaron Simmons has seemingly passed Eli Brooks, who hasn't played in the last two games, but Simmons hasn't been particularly effective—he got yanked from the Purdue game after committing three turnovers in three minutes. If neither Simmons nor Brooks can be effective, look for John Beilein to go with more of the MAAR/Poole backcourt he's experimented with in recent games. This five-game stretch is probably Simmons' last chance to establish himself as a viable Big Ten player; hopefully M gets enough comfortable leads to give him a little more leeway to play though mistakes.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 30 | Bryant McIntosh | Sr. | 6'3, 200 | 78 | 25 | 101 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Yep, still there. Good distributor, takes a lot of difficult shots, makes some. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 20 | Scottie Lindsey | Sr. | 6'5, 210 | 76 | 24 | 101 | Kinda | |||||||||||
High-volume shooter only making 42% of twos, 23% of threes in B1G play. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 4 | Vic Law | Jr. | 6'7, 200 | 72 | 21 | 114 | No | |||||||||||
Solid 48/40/80 shooting splits, strong defender. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 44 | Gavin Skelly | Sr. | 6'8, 235 | 54 | 17 | 102 | No | |||||||||||
Decent shot-blocker. Low usage, solid outside shooter, turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 5 | Dererk Pardon | Jr. | 6'8, 235 | 74 | 19 | 119 | Very | |||||||||||
Strong finisher, rebounder, and shot-blocker. Iffy FT shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 11 | Anthony Gaines | Fr. | 6'4, 205 | 39 | 15 | 95 | Yes | |||||||||||
Doesn't do much on offense, not shooting well. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 23 | Jordan Ash | Jr. | 6'3, 200 | 31 | 11 | 98 | Not Really | |||||||||||
Backup PG, decent shooter, TO rate twice as high as assist rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 35 | Aaron Falzon | So. | 6'8, 225 | 31 | 19 | 114 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Extreme Just A Shooter™, hits 46% of his threes. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Northwestern has been one of the bigger disappointments of this season, following last year's tournament breakthrough with a 13-9 start. The only top-100 teams they've beaten are a reeling post-Reggie Lynch Minnesota squad (twice) and Penn State. They managed to give Purdue a scare at Mackey and hung relatively close at home against Ohio State; otherwise, they've had a tough time staying competitive against top competition.
What's been especially disappointing is this is largely the same team as last year. The only lost starter, Sanjay Lumpkin, was an extreme low-usage player. The Bryant McIntosh-Dererk Pardon pick-and-roll duo is still there. So are Vic Law and Scottie Lindsay. Senior stretch four Gavin Skelly was a natural fit to step into the starting lineup.
Yet this team has taken a significant step back, mostly on defense, where they've dropped from 32nd to 95th on KenPom. A team with this much experience is dangerous, but so far they've struggled to establish a reliable scoring option—McIntosh and Lindsay are both mired in bad shooting seasons—and their interior defense has collapsed in conference play despite the presence of Pardon, a very good shot-blocker.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats. Small sample size caveats apply.
Northwestern hasn't been able to shoot from inside or outside the arc in conference play; they rely heavily on getting second-chance buckets to drag the offense even close to average. Michigan, even after playing MSU once and Purdue twice, is the best defensive rebounding team in the conference.
The Wildcats defense blocks a lot of shots, second-most in the conference, but that hasn't deterred opponents from attacking the basket and finding success; Big Ten teams are making 51.1% of their twos against NW. They also seem to be benefiting from some three-point luck; they've given up the ninth-highest rate of attempts but currently allow the second-lowest percentage.
THE KEYS
Defend the glass. Northwestern is a questionable shot factory so long as they aren't pulling down offensive rebounds. The onus mostly falls on Moe Wagner, who's been unexpectedly great on the boards this year, to keep Dererk Pardon sealed off. If Michigan does this, the Wildcats are going to have a tough time keeping up.
More Poole/MAAR? I'm both totally in the bag for Jordan Poole and discouraged by the backup point guard play of late. John Beilein has experimented with a no-PG backcourt of Jordan Poole and MAAR, and while it hasn't really clicked yet, I like the potential on both ends of the floor. This could be a good game to unleash them against a backcourt that's had trouble producing.
Attack the interior. Michigan should be able to get their guards and wings going downhill against this defense, and while they get decent rim protection, they tend to break down when opponents slash to the hoop. This could be a big game for Zavier Simpson as a drive-and-dish threat.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 9.
Keep Northwestern off the offensive boards and this should be a relatively comfortable victory.
ELSEWHERE
January 29th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
My first chance to go to a game this season; I'm in town for business and my supplier got me a ticket. Can't wait
January 29th, 2018 at 3:57 PM ^
Enjoy!
January 29th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Really important 5 game stretch here. Play well, go 5-0, and you go into that Ohio state game with a chance to get off the 7-10 seed lines.
January 29th, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
I'm no seeding expert, but we are ranked #24 and are #24 on Kenpom.
We are all seeing the same bracketology predictions showing us in the 7/8/9/10 seed range.
It seems to me that we really should be in the 6/7/8 range.
And, if we win the next five games (even against mediocre competition), I'd guess that we'd move up to 20ish both in the rankings and Kenpom...which seems more like a team that would be in the 5/6 range.
January 29th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
January 29th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
is bascially irrelevant. the stupid ncaa focuses on RPI. hopefully, a 5 game win streak could get us near the top 20 in that metric.
January 29th, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^
If you go by RPI, we are in the 30s, and that's about a 8-9 seed range. I understand that the NCAA doesn't rely on RPI alone, but that does seem to be the "cover" they fall back on if they decide to underseed or overseed a team.
January 29th, 2018 at 11:39 PM ^
I found that to be a beautiful and pleasant suprise. I don't think anyone else has us there yet, but we could end up there with a run here. Looking good right now with this D and this roster.
January 31st, 2018 at 9:17 PM ^
4 to go, let's do it.
January 29th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
Should we assume that Northwestern is going to switch everything because their tallest player is 6'8"?
January 29th, 2018 at 2:41 PM ^
I don't know that it matters much how tall a team is. Purdue started switching against us because their bigs were too slow hedging and then getting back to Wagner before he could fire up a three. We've not shown the ability to post him up and he's not shown the ability to recognize and pass out of help as he drives.
I would imagine all teams will switch the ball screens until we can make them pay for the mismatches. Z driving on bigs has been the only mismatch exploitation that's been reasonably effective.
January 29th, 2018 at 4:39 PM ^
I should have been more clear.
I was referencing the much more effective switching Nebraska was able to do with a similar-sized lineup.
January 29th, 2018 at 5:50 PM ^
and was just saying that we should probably assume all teams, regardless of height, will switch ball screens until we can exploit matchups better.
January 29th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
January 29th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
Play the Poole.
Lite it up boys. And Let's have some fun around here
Go Blue.
January 29th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
the Vegas line at 7.5 seems low to me.. I feel like the Ken Pom number is about right.
January 29th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
Alex Olah graduated so I'm feeling pretty good about this one
January 31st, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^
had our number.
January 29th, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^
Can we please pound these guys by 40?
They'll show the ending of last year's game tonight probably 3 times and then maybe reference it another 10 times. I've taken great delight in every basketball loss Northwestern has had since. Especially when Georgia Tech got a layup buzzer beater on them.
Just because....
January 29th, 2018 at 3:47 PM ^
Your level of spite is awesome and I applaud it.
January 29th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
Michigan, even after playing MSU once and Purdue twice, is the best defensive rebounding team in the conference.
Wut? I be like dang.
January 29th, 2018 at 5:51 PM ^
We are a really good defensive rebounding team and it's sustained all season such that it is not a fluke. Wagner has massively upped his game in that respect, Livers and Teske have been good and the guards continue to go get the ball as is becoming a Beilein staple, rather than strictly getting upcourt for outlet passes.
Purdue is actually an entirely mediocre offensive rebounding team, so it's not surprising we did well against them. Despite them having an orge, he isn't going to go get it (which is what o rebounding require), and none of their other guys go for Orebs. So for them, it has to bounce to Haas (which is admittedly a big target) or they probably aren't getting it.
It was very impressive that we outrebounded MSU. That and our ability to turn it over fewer times than them won us the game as it allowed us to take a lot more shots than they took (despite hitting at a lower percentage).
January 29th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
you posted exactly what I was going to post, but you did it earlier and you did it better than I would have. Love that stat! I have noticed the vast improvement in rebounding fundamentals with Wagner; great coaching Yak!
January 29th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
isnt handling the ball in late game situations where we have to make Free Throws we will be fine..oh yeah and we need GOOD MO to show up EVERY game and since these are not the High quality teams Matthews should be good to...thats all
January 29th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
Is Elaine's son still on the team at Northwestern?
January 29th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
He got his first career point recently.
January 29th, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^
January 29th, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
have one of those kind of guys.
January 29th, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^
about Evan Eschmeyer when he was there in the mid-late 90's. Just seemed like he was there FOREVER!
January 29th, 2018 at 5:53 PM ^
that guy was there for like 6 years. So yeah, an eternity in cbball.
January 31st, 2018 at 12:53 AM ^
he was there six years, a couple short of Horace Prettyman, Brian's GGF.
January 29th, 2018 at 5:47 PM ^
He's definitely of the Jess Settles, Robbie Hummel, etc. mold.
January 29th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
Would be nice to see a 20 point lead at the half, without a 2nd half implosion.
January 29th, 2018 at 6:22 PM ^
Didn't Billy Donlon wind up at Northwestern. Am I being paranoid to suddenly remember how our defense last year kicked in right around this time to trend upward under his guidance? I will be very annoyed if Northwestern has a "break thru" defensive game tonight (or next week against us, for that matter).
January 29th, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^
January 29th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
...we tend to find a way to blow these "sure bets" a little too often... have a cautious feeling about today.
Hope we pull through.
Go Blue!!!
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