2018-19 College Football Futures: Michigan 5th favorite to win
Given all the "sky is falling" talk on the site after the bowl game, it's interesting to see how a neutral observer rates the strength of Michigan's 2018 football team.
The Top 5 are:
Bama 5-2
Clemson 6-1
Ohio State/Georgia 8-1
Michigan 10-1
January 8th, 2018 at 7:05 PM ^
100% true, proven by my Determinatron 5000 which scientifically analyzes all football coaches in history to establish their determination level to the nearest angstrom.
We're a shoo-in for the playoffs.
January 8th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
With our offensive ineptitude and schedule, that is just comically high.
January 9th, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^
The rating is clearly about the defense, which is awesome.
For sure you're right that our O needs to improve, but if it only gets to servicable then we would be a threat.
Particularly think about how badly our O left our D on the field and put them in bad positions. Particularly since our strength was our run game and we could burn a lot of clock.
I'm not by any means saying I'm thinking championship next year. But we are way ahead of most teams because of our D, which should be even better
January 8th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 5:00 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 5:11 PM ^
How dare the OP post something factual and positive! Doesn't DavidP realize that the board has been taken over by fatalists and masochists?
January 8th, 2018 at 7:10 PM ^
Betting lines are "facts" now?
Rosters are facts. Schedules are facts. Coaching staffs are facts. What Vegas says about games in the future is speculation designed to get people to bet money.
January 8th, 2018 at 7:23 PM ^
If one defines a "fact" as something falsifiable, the current betting line is a fact. A betting line has a particular value, and you can go to the relevant website and confirm or disprove whether the amount listed is accurate.
Whether current betting lines will have any correlation to future reality is to be seen--not a currently knowable fact. I don't see anyone questioning the OP's regurgitation of the lines, however.
January 8th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^
A casino doesn't try to predict outcomes, they only care about trying to equalize betting across all the options. They set lines to encourage/discourage betting on one side of a proposition. If they equalize bets on all sides they make money off the juice - and they win every time. That is why odds move over time - heavy betting on one side or another makes the casino move the line to push bettors to the other side(s). It is also why different sports books have different lines - it depends on where the action is at that particular book.
They set odds like this because they know the most money will flow to big names with big fan bases - which includes Michigan. The more people bet on Michigan the lower the odds will go.
In other words - this means absolutely nothing.
January 8th, 2018 at 5:21 PM ^
Apparently you need another primer on how betting odds work, because you have it wrong.
If Vegas set odds the way you think they do, I could retire betting on teams playing the Steelers, Cowboys, Packers, and Notre Dame every week. I can't, because while fans who have bias place lots of small bets, the pros place $50k bets on the side they think is correct. Smaller fan bets don't move lines.
Also, these odds came out today, so nobody has bet on these odds yet.
January 8th, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^
EDIT: Nobody has bet on these lines yet except for the President of Russia, who bet $10M on Washington State.
January 8th, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 6:43 PM ^
My $1 on Tennessee shows you how much faith I have in the Jeremy Pruitt era in Knoxville getting off to a most fantastic start with Phil Fulmer at the helm of the athletic department.
January 8th, 2018 at 5:44 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 10:19 PM ^
...but you could say the same thing about horseracing. Heavy betting on the favorite moves the odds of winning, again, not a predictor of the outcome, but rather a reaction to the betting action. That's the point I was making. Vegas doesn't predict a winner or a score, just bettors habits.
January 9th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^
I would expect that these types of bets (who's going to win the championship?) don't draw a lot of action as opposed to other bets (who's going to cover the line this week?)
January 8th, 2018 at 6:02 PM ^
No, he is absolutely and succinctly right, and if I was predicting your future in sports betting, I would have your in the poorhouse, not retirement. Stay away from things you do not understand.
January 8th, 2018 at 10:16 PM ^
What are you even talking about? You can bet whoever the hell you want to, and yes, you can make money or lose money betting, but the line adjusts based on market pressures, not Vegas predicting the score at all.
If you are really betting based on what appears to be a completely false conception of how the oddmakers work, then godspeed my friend. Just remember only bet what you can afford to lose, because you will lose. Bigly.
January 9th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
The line adjusts based on market pressures, but it's SET based on Vegas predicitng the score. That's what we're talking about--the opening Vegas line. Apparently even the basics of the discussion went over your head.
And I'm up this year. Bigly.
January 8th, 2018 at 6:18 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 5:17 PM ^
Even if you love Michigan this is a terrible value bet. Michigan has hyper inflated odds relative to their actual shot at winning. Even if they do have an amazing year your payout wouldnt be that good. You are better off putting your money on Bama, who is essentially gauranteed a playoff berth or on a team like Washington that would need to have a similar surprising but not out of the realm of possibility season but pays out much better at 30/1.
January 8th, 2018 at 5:33 PM ^
Let's play them one at a time.
January 8th, 2018 at 5:45 PM ^
Basically everyone is back. The only loss loss is Hurst. The other losses will be neutral or replaced by more talent.
2017 was simple to outsiders who don't get jolly from seeing Harbaugh fail and look at things obectively: Great recruits getting their learning year out of the way. Harbaugh is a blue chip coach to people who really follow this stuff closely.
Talking the people who have mega dollars and their livelihood as oddsmakers riding on the results.
Not near the knowledge level of your average upset message board poster, I know.
January 8th, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 6:51 PM ^
If not for that loss against Iowa, an 11-1 Michigan last year after a close, away Ohio State loss would have definitely made the playoff. That's basically Alabama this year.
January 9th, 2018 at 9:25 AM ^
fail and look at things obectively [sic]: Great recruits getting their learning year out of the way.This works right up until one looks at winning schools who don't have that same problem. You'd think watching the game last night would have shown that "youth" is nothing more than just a bullshit excuse. That's being truly objective.
January 8th, 2018 at 5:55 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 6:01 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 6:40 PM ^
Agreed. Baby steps...
January 9th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^
User name checks out.
January 8th, 2018 at 6:43 PM ^
Purdue Says Hello
January 9th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
and UM beat them 28-10
January 8th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^
Now that is a fact.
January 8th, 2018 at 8:37 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 6:15 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 6:28 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 8:39 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 6:35 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 10:00 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 10:01 PM ^
January 8th, 2018 at 10:11 PM ^
1. What M has developing into upperclassmen,
2. What M’s head coach has proven he is capable of accomplishing with the right personnel
3. Shea Patterson, Peters, McAffrey can’t all be busts
4. Don Brown
5. Don Freakin Brown
6. More Mustache
7. Scary Defense
Honestly, all this team has to do is figure out how to score a few more points next season. With the offense developing, WRs becoming more experienced, a QB stepping up, and a more experienced Oline with better overall talent...
It’s looking good for 2018
January 8th, 2018 at 11:13 PM ^
January 9th, 2018 at 8:37 AM ^
PUMP THE DAMN BRAKES!! Let's beat MSU first and then go from there.....good god
January 9th, 2018 at 9:19 AM ^
Funny how quickly the board went from "3-9 reasons" comments to "let's beat MSU first".
January 10th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
yeah "3-9" is the only dirt we have on Sparty in the last decade.