What are reasonable Michigan FB Team Success Criteria

Beat MSU and OSU.

Some of you guys really need to take a look at what "reasonable" means.  There are some absolutely crazy threshold means.  I guess our stereotype of being dilusional doesn't come from nowhere - ha!  

Quick thoughts on reasonable expectations:

1. No embarrassing off field scandals

2. Beat MSU 3/4.  Beat OSU 6/10.  

3. Make B1G Championship game every 3 years.  

4. Down year = 7/8 wins and a bowl game.  

Each senior class gets two B1G title game.  Not sure what that translates to in terms of B1G titles/CFP berths, but you'd assume we'd often be in the discussion.  

I don't expect the team to be in title contention every year. We don't have the kind of four and five star depth that Bama and OSU have where they can just reload every single year. Given the division we're in and the teams we go against, I'd say reasonable expectations are:

-Beating MSU at least half the time as long as Dantonio is there. Depending on who he's replaced by, along with assuming that whoever comes in after is a downgrade, I'd say beating them at least 3 of every 4 years. If they hire another John L Smith kind of guy next, beating them 9 of every 10 years. 

-Beating OSU at least once every 3-4 years as long as Meyer is there. You can look at my expectation as soft. But Meyer is one of the best in the game, and his record against rivals over the course of his entire career is insane. We don't recruit at their level either. We just don't. But Harbaugh has shown his teams have the ability to beat him. After Meyer leaves, depending on who he's replaced by, I'd say an expectation is to beat them at least half the time. But OSU has hit a grand slam on their last two hires. Have to hope the next one is a big whiff. 

-Win the division at least once every couple of years. 

-Win the conference maybe 2-3 times over a decade. I know we want more, but the conference is so much stronger now compared to how it was 20-30 years ago. Even 10 years ago. OSU barely beat Wisconsin the other night. 

-Make the playoffs maybe 2-3 times a decade, and of those times, win it all once. So reasonably, I'd hope Michigan wins a national title once every 10-15 years. I know we judge ourselves by seeing what Meyer and Saban do with their respective programs, but they're at the top end of the spectrum. The exception, not the rule. Every other program in America (including OSU and Bama after Saban/Meyer leave) would be ecstatic with those results. 

then I would consider a successful season. Hopefully that will become more easier when they expand the playoffs to 8 teams.  You may lose to OSU in Columbus but still have a 11-1 record and good enough for the playoffs, even if you did not win the B1G.

I think college programs tend to set themselves up for 2 or 3 years of consecutive success, I wouldn't be totally surprised if we beat MSU and OSU multiple years in a row or even made the playoffs 2 or 3 years in a row. That would require a step forward in recruiting, and a leap in development.

Can Michigan get there? I don't know, maybe? That's a hard place to get to, and it's difficult to set a timeframe on when something like that should happen, but I think Harbaugh probably gives us the best shot of any coach we're going to have any time soon.

In three out of every six seasons win at least 10 games including The Game. Two out of those three reach and win the Big Ten Championship and make the playoffs. Win the National Championship once every six years.

It should be obvious that reaching Indy will take more than 10 wins most years and probably mean beating MSU, so our ongoing record against them will be covered in this scenario.  

To fully feel "yes, success" I look at these items...

1. Win 10 games: I get that is an "old school" mindset but if you win 10 games you are likely legit good. With a bowl game this should happen MOST years. Hell we feel like this is a horrible year and UM may win 9.

2. Beat OSU when it's at UM and 1 out of every 3 osu games on the road

3. Beat MSU 3 out of every 4 years. No excuse with recruiting at this point.

4. OWN winning at MIchigan. UM should virtually never lose when the game is at UM.

 

The rest as far as playoff and shit will take care of itself if the above are completed as a baseline. If UM is doing that they will get the chance for the playoff, they will get a big ten title shot, they will be a routine top 10 team.

Interesting topic. 

Realistically, in terms of football, the goals/standards of success should be as follows:

• 0.500 record vs. Ohio State (1 out of 2 games on average)
• 0.667 record vs. Penn State (2 out of 3 games on average)
• 0.750 record vs. Michigan State (3 out of 4 games on average)
• Win the East Division at least once every 4 years (every player goes to Indy at least once). 
• 2-3 Big Ten Titles per decade, along with 2-3 playoff appearances per decade. 
• Winning record in bowl games. 
• No scandals. 
• Stronger than average academics.

 

Win 10ish games, maybe more or maybe less depending on how the ball bounces. Compete with MSU and OSU and win at least 1 in every 3. Be in the conversation for B1G championship for a good part of the season. Recruit well (top 20 perennially), send some players to the league. Not sure if it's realistic to beat MSU every year anymore, but it would be nice to win more than we lose.

Beat OSU half the time. Beat MSU 3 of 5 times. Win 2 BIg Ten Titles a decade. Make playoffs once or twice a decade. I don't think MSU will go back to being terrible even after Dantonio leaves. They have changed the culture there and their facilities are finally on par with most big time programs in the country.