Zach Shaw's analytic case for John O'Korn
I liked the way he describes "on-target rate" and "improvisation plays." Beats a superficial look at completion percentage, which can underrate how a QB performs under duress. An excerpt below. Full article here: http://michigan.247sports.com/Article/Replay-Takeaways-No-8-Michigan-28-Purdue-10-football-film-review-107984685
First, O’Korn was exceptionally accurate for a backup quarterback. His on-target rate (see previous versions of this story for more on this) was 22 for 29 (75.9 percent), and he targeted 10 different receivers. While a couple throws waffled, both figures are better than Speight has done this season, and show that O’Korn has the ability to play like a starter beyond potential beginner’s luck.
But as I watched, another development arose that could bode well for Michigan. I pegged O’Korn as 7 for 8 on-target in what I will call “improvisation plays.” These are when the play broke down, the pocket collapsed or something else happened that forced O’Korn to work on his feet. That’s an incredible rate at which he can find someone open under duress, and might not be sustainable. But O’Korn’s improvisation kept Purdue’s defense honest, got more players involved in the passing game, and allowed the Wolverines to solidify momentum in the second half.
While this story is not meant to focus on intangibles, O’Korn’s dodgy approach may have rallied the offense around him. Having seen the previous games on film as well, a rewatch of Saturday looked like a sports movie after the coach tells his struggling team to just have fun or return to their roots in the championship game.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:15 AM ^
What did he say?
I don't think Speight would be in a tenable position if he started again, at least until a time where O'Korn would falter. Because as soon as Speight struggles (and surely he'll struggle again, especially against an out-for-blood MSU defense that has spent half of its practices since last spring practicing to play him) O'Korn will have to be put in, since we know he can get it done.
That's a shattering sort of thing to do to Speight. He would have to be perfect out of the box. Anything less than a TD (no matter if the right side lets blitzers into his face on every play or a runner slips and falls for a loss behind the LOS) will be blamed on him. And, worse, the confidence of the coaches and teammates won't be there.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:52 AM ^
It starts at 1:20 in the link below. He didn't directly answer the question but I assume he means if Speight is healthy he will start.
September 26th, 2017 at 2:30 AM ^
"...there won't and wouldn't be until we know the health situation of Wilton Speight."
I don't think that implies Speight is the presumptive starter. It states, clearly in my view, that it's not an issue while Speight is injured.
I read that as "we'll cross tha bridge when we get to it."
September 26th, 2017 at 9:17 AM ^
Agreed. It's hard to have a QB competition when one of the QBs is unable to play. He's kicking that can down the road.
September 26th, 2017 at 9:20 AM ^
That's exctly what he said. No QB competetion since only one QB is healthy right now. He dodged the question quite well.
September 26th, 2017 at 2:28 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 12:54 AM ^
Harbaugh is clearly a fiercely loyal person. Maybe to a fault. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Speight is the starter as soon as he's healthy.
Same goes for Drevno remaining offensive coordinator and an OL coach even though it's unclear what exactly he has contributed so far.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:22 AM ^
Harbaugh is super loyal to his QBs. I still remember the Presser he gave when Alex Smith got hurt and Colin Kaepernick did well as the starter. You could see how much it pained him to take away the job from Smith who lost it through no fault of his own. I expect the same to happen here, especially since I doesn't look like Speight will be ready to play again any time soon.
September 26th, 2017 at 6:41 AM ^
Maybe so but Alex Smith was playing well at the time of his injury unlike speight.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:43 AM ^
Speight's healthiness floats with the level of play of O'Korn. Wilton may not return to 100% for months. If O'Korn continues to play in high level, Speighs will get his chance next year.
September 26th, 2017 at 6:48 AM ^
Speight's injury public? Or are you just speculating when you say that Speight will not me 100% for months?
September 26th, 2017 at 8:06 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 7:06 AM ^
...he also needs to consider the impact on the rest of the team. JOK played well enough and, frankly, FAR superior to Speight and is making quicker decisions while being more elusive. When your QB shows this ability, the rest of the team feeds off of the positive vibe. If Speight starts the next game, I'm not sure his teammates will exhibit the same level of confidence as they've now found in JOK.
I really think there's a personal connection between Speight and JH that isn't there with JOK. Speight is arguably a more cerebral and articulate QB than O'Korn, which seems apparent in interviews, but he seems woefully one-dimensional vis-a-vis JOK as a game-time player at this juncture.
I think JOK is revitalized under Pep's tutelage, and is a confident dude. Like most fans now, I think the comparative sample size of side-by-side performances is ample. The clear conclusion (even from a meritocracy perspective) is that JOK has earned the next start. Period.\
One final thought... If Speight and O'Korn were competing for any other position on the team, I don't think there would be any question who the better option would be and playing time would reflect it. That said, this is a QB thing, and JH may become a bit too sensitive and subjective when it comes to QB decisions unlike other positions.
We shall see...
September 26th, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^
"There wouldn't be [a qb competition] until we really know the health of Wilton Speight." Coachspeak is a good word for it. How could there be a competition if only one quarterback is healthy? Only one healthy qb=no competition. My reading is that Harbaugh just doesn't want to say who the starter is--not an endorsement of Speight.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:25 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 1:37 AM ^
and O'Korn works better Pep, which O'Korn implied in an interview. Jim kind of feels sorry for Speight losing between the coaching change and wants to support Wilton.
September 26th, 2017 at 6:53 AM ^
wouldn't is just be that they decided to make adjustments to the offensive play calling at half time?
That is when the play calling changed.
September 26th, 2017 at 9:45 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 12:39 AM ^
I focused on the third quarter go-ahead drive in my analysis diary, but while looking at progressions I also noticed that remarkable pass to Gentry on the play that O'Korn got targeted on. It was a blitz and a great throw to the open space where Gentry could get it.
But that wasn't even O'Korn's first read. He looked left first, read the coverage and the pressure, pivoted, and threw to Gentry just before getting murdered.
That play gets better every time I watch it.
September 26th, 2017 at 2:48 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 6:59 AM ^
Honestly the injury to Speight could be the best thing mentally for him right now. He hasn't been right all year especially when the pocket is breaking down which last year was a HUGE part of him playing so well. He would step up in the pocket and avoid a sure sack like he was an NFL QB.
This year he looked like garbage for whatever reason. If he doesn't fall down a depressed path and lets this drive him to make him stronger we'll be in a good spot in case anything happens to O'Korn.
Having 2 QBs with legit starter experience in the B1G would be big for this team. We're always a play away from rotating in.
September 26th, 2017 at 7:07 AM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
the offense around him. Having seen the previous games on film as well, a rewatch of Saturday looked like a sports movie after the coach tells his struggling team to just have fun or return to their roots in the championship game.
I said this yesterday in another thread. All of a sudden they were playing football rather than just trying to execute well, as they had been with Speight. Suddenly there was some flow in the o.
September 26th, 2017 at 10:49 AM ^
Here's my analysis:
O'Korn throw football well.
Speight, not so much.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:12 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^
Question for the field...
Who's coming in if O'Korn loses his helmet for a play? Or, gets the wind knocked out of him for play or two? Is it Peters no matter what, or would we have Genty take a snap or two to evaluate the situation on O'Korn. Or just burn the redshirt?
Any speculation as to how much of the play book Peters should know by now?
Just thinking down the road two weeks expecting some extremely late, hard hits on the QB.
Hopefully none of thie will come into play, but I always like to have a plan A, B, and C... and curious what you thought the coaches would be?
Go Blue
September 26th, 2017 at 3:26 PM ^
Peters has already burned his redshirt. He would be the backup.
September 26th, 2017 at 4:05 PM ^
For straightening me out... Peters it is then, hope he has a good grasp of the playbook incase he's needed.