This Week’s Obsession: QB1
THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: If you haven’t yet met the guy on the right, that’s Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management. Since I made MGoBlog my career I’ve acquired a spouse, a house, and two kids, and a ton of questions about our financial future.
So I talk to Nick. In turn, Nick—who’s been reading this site since nearly the beginning—has a lot of questions about Michigan. So the deal is we go to him for financial strategies, and he gets to ask us Michigan questions. These we’ll answer in whatever format works: This Week’s Obsession, What Is, Neck Sharpies, Basketbullets, whatever. Anytime it’s a Nick question, we’ll let you know. Anytime you’ve got a financial question, let Nick know. And while you’re at it, if you also have Michigan question you’d like to be given the full MGoBlog treatment, well, Nick’s buying!--------------------------------
Nick’s First Question:
Does Michigan have a new quarterback?
[Patrick Barron]
BiSB: This is a bit of an Allegory of the Cave situation. We only see a small fraction of the available evidence, and we see it with only a fractional understanding of what should be happening. The coaches have much more information about both of these guys, and they clearly thought - right up until the moment he was origami'd by that Purdue defender - was that Speight was better. So I don't think I'm even qualified to guess in this situation, though that has never stopped me in the past.
My blind-ass prediction is that he gets the start against MSU, and his performance in the first game or two determines what happens when Speight is 100%. Two things I will mention in favor of the premise of the dawning of the O'Korn Era. The first relates to a name that hasn't been mentioned much recently: Colin Kaepernick. Alex Smith missed a start because of a concussion, and he never got his job back. The second point, which is related to the first one, is that O'Korn has the kind of mobility that Harbaugh has traditionally enjoyed with his quarterbacks. If he can extend that mobility to include mobility in the pocket the way he flashed against Purdue, I think he has a good shot to keep the job.
[Hit THE JUMP to see what we see]
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Brian: I don't see how they can go back to Speight until and unless O'Korn's performance gives them a reason to. Michigan just had their best offensive performance of the season by a healthy margin, per S&P+, and that was with three Speight-led drives that netted 12 yards weighing down the O'Korn section of the game.
Speight's performance so far this year has looked worse than it's actually been. He's getting little help from his OL, RBs, or receivers. In this one he suffered when Schoenle failed to rub a guy on third and short, and when Michigan let guys through untouched up the middle, and when they did that some more. I don't think it's a blowout all of a sudden.
The more a thing happens the more you have to expect it to happen. [Chris Cook] |
I do think O'Korn has a clear edge after Saturday. Speight's ability to make plays in the face of pressure has seemingly evaporated. For whatever reason he's gone from a guy who will avoid a rush and reset and do something productive to one who airmails his receivers when someone is vaguely in the area. Or he'll break the pocket and not find Grant Perry. O'Korn broke the pocket and found Grant Perry. With the offense in its current state, I'm going with the guy who finds Perry.
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David: Probably? There's no official word on Speight's injury or any sort of timetable, but I don't think most people are expecting him back in less than two weeks...and even then, how much practice would he even get? The Bye Week came at the perfect time for Michigan. If Speight cannot go, Harbaugh and Co have two weeks to rep JOK with the 1's and continue building the continuity of timing routes and general teammate feels. Speaking of which, despite just missing Perry on a couple of key third downs, JOK looked very in sync with his targets.
We talked about the audible in Cover Zero leading to the jump ball to Gentry. Also, he consistently was able to connect with McKeon, leading to Sean's biggest day of his career. After taking a couple of series to settle in, JOK showed wonderful pocket presence and mobility...stuff that was projected and hoped for a year and a half ago. Granted, this is just based on facing a Purdue defense, and we really are still stuck with a small sample size, but it is starting to feel that the offense's ceiling took a huge bump with what JOK brought to the huddle.
The only reason I downgraded to “probably” is in case of a minor scenario. As Adam and I drove back from West Lafayette, I mentioned that if Speight's injury ended up being very minor, he practices and tidies up during the next 10 days, there's still the chance that he starts on the 7th...but with a much shorter leash. The bye week is the perfect time to make a QB switch, though. So, I would not be surprised to see JOK lead Michigan's offense in their 4th ever home night game.
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Ace: I agree with everyone else here for the same reasons so I’ll just note that since none of us predicted O’Korn would even be on the two-deep in this year’s HTTV, he’s a dead lock to hold onto the job.
BiSB: The one caveat to Brian's point about Speight's production this year is that we have a significant sample from LAST season as well.
Ace: I think the offensive line really changes this year’s circumstances, though. Speight hasn’t responded well to having consistent pressure in his face and it seems like it’s affected him even when he isn’t under fire.
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Adam: I think O'Korn is probably the new starter, but I can't discard the adverb because of what Bryan was saying about Speight and the coaching staff. There was clearly something the coaches saw that led to Harbaugh reiterating every week that. despite the offense's struggles, Speight was the starter.
Could that have changed after the Purdue game? Obviously. It seemed like O'Korn was developing his vision outside the pocket as the game progressed, moving from I-have-a-mobile-QB-and-am-in-7th-grade-MAKE-PLAYS Madden player to a legitimate threat throwing on the move. I think it comes down to a battle of weighing whatever the coaches were seeing from Wilton from spring ball through the last week of practices against what O'Korn did against Purdue, and that's a battle where I lean toward live reps. With Speight being definitively ruled out if there was a game this week, the window for him to make his case is shrinking quickly.
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Seth: Speight isn't the guy who earned the Purdue start anymore. That guy was seeing everything in front of him, making correct reads, and could write a tour guide for pockets. Here’s that failed rub by Schoenle that Brian mentioned:
It's a counter off the mesh play that was the offense's staple in this game. It was also a staple play last year when Speight was too injured to throw downfield yet still money on third and short passes. Speight comes off his first read, McKeon, too fast to realize that his hot read is hot, and then bugs out in the direction of his next two reads. The second read is Schoenle's snag, which doubles as a pick route, but like Brian said, Schoenle didn't run it picky enough to open up the third read, Hill, which isn't open because the pick didn't come off.
A year ago Speight had the presence and command to step into that pocket, which was fine, and let McKeon's route have a chance of coming open. From the pocket Speight would have still been able to access Schoenle and Hill, without losing the opportunity to find McKeon and Gentry. Instead he did the thing Gardner did all 2014 where he's bugging out too quickly. The thing that quarterbacks do when they've been under siege and don’t trust their linemen to keep them alive for half a progression.
I think what the coaches saw in Speight was the guy they weren't ready to give up on. The guy who got shaky after Colorado, got a bye week to reset, and eviscerated all comers until Iowa. The guy who played hurt in the Horseshoe for them. Justice is a form of merit, and it was only justice to allow that guy a shot against Purdue’s leaky passing defense to make it to the bye.
There's a version of this story where Speight makes it through the Purdue game, gets a week to reset, and comes out refreshingly lethal against State. But that timeline didn't have O'Korn use his opportunity to demonstrate he can handle the job. Harbaugh said Speight probably couldn't go if there was a game this Saturday, and given the kind of pain Speight's played through in the past that says he's not going to be able to practice.
So the answer for now is yes, Michigan has a new starting quarterback. But then we haven't seen how O'Korn will stand up against the kinds of things Speight's been through. Nothing's permanent; it’s now JOK’s job to lose.
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Ace: One thing going in O’Korn’s favor that isn’t always the case in these scenarios: Michigan has rotated so much at WR and TE that he’s probably had more reps with the pass-catchers who’ll see the field than most backups. That came to mind when it was clear he felt most comfortable throwing to McKeon and Gentry.
September 26th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
There was also a full quarter+ where O'Korn did nothing (between the first and second TD drives), completed only half his passes, and took 2 sacks himself. The reason the "spin out of a sack for a third down conversion" felt like a turning point was because we were losing and had already had 5 drives in a row go basically no where. It felt like a must-score drive.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^
....and I don't start against MSU, even if Speight is healthy, I'm really pissed. I earned that right. I will very likely tell my coach what I think and feel, especially about his 'meritocracy'.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
You say "meritocracy" but you seem to be proposing "recency bias".
September 26th, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 1:27 PM ^
Not at all. If Speight is anything less than 100% (which he seems to be) and/or O'Korn continues to look as good in practice as Speight during the bye week, I would say O'Korn should start. I'd be surprised if Speight starts for MSU (and disappointed if he starts and plays poorly).
But throwing out 2016, spring camp, fall camp, and every practice and game since then which has apparently confirmed Speight as the starter to the people who matter, and instead using 2 quarters of very good (and 1 quarter of poor) QB play by O'Korn as the only basis for naming O'Korn "the best chance to win" is not meritocracy, it is recency bias.
September 27th, 2017 at 1:46 AM ^
Another guy who is dug in.
I suggest we play the guy who gives us the best chance to win the game we are playing in that day. Call it what you want. I call him the starter.
Not sure if Speight will lose his job over this, but I suspect he might if O'Korn leads the team effectively in the next few games.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^
which suggests that because Purdue had a coach on its staff that had benched O'Korn when he was the starter at Houston that O'Korn's desire to demonstrate how wrong that decision was and how his game has improved, and that coming off the bench and not over-analyzing the Boilermakers defense enabled him to be more effective than otherwise.
I mean O'Korn said after the game that if he'd gotten a shot to play significant time in any game, he hoped it would be against Purdue because of his history with his former coach. So, he got his wish and responded extremely positively.
What does that mean going forward? I don't know. But I do think what we've begun to suspect about Speight's play is that he's become gunshy and not instinctively responding to breakdowns in the pocket as he did in the past because of all the punishment he's taken from the opposing rush from leaky Oline play.
In any case, Speight's injury recovery makes the decision to give O'Korn the starting nod going forward immediately, is actually a choice without a future judgment. It's trial by fire and how O'Korn handles it determines what will then become a more important choice going forward, who will lead this team through the rest of the season.
I mean starting against MSU offers the perfect test for O'Korn. Because his performance in a rivalry setting at night in front of the Big House and a national audience will tell us what he's really made of when he knows beforehand what he faces.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:47 PM ^
For most of the year, I have thought that Speight hasn't been playing well, but was our best option because he wasn't making poor decisions.I was willing to live with the inaccuracy if he made the right decision with the ball. The highlighted play is the exact moment where I realized Speight was broken -- he panics before he even gets pressure on that play. He has been playing scared, afraid to throw to open receivers, afraid of the pressure that may or may not come (and yes with the OL play it has been a justified fear). His greatest asset last year was his pocket presence, with that apparently gone, I think it is time to try someone else.
September 26th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^
September 27th, 2017 at 1:42 AM ^
He has, but he is dug in, and now sees what he wants to.
September 27th, 2017 at 3:05 AM ^
September 27th, 2017 at 7:08 AM ^
Some people just cannot move on, especially when they have to admit to themselves they were seeing things too accurately from the start!
September 29th, 2017 at 1:55 AM ^
I agree with you and misread your post when commenting earlier.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:49 PM ^
O'Korn obviously played well, but even in this game you can say that they didn't face the same conditions. Yes, there was the first sucessful O'Korn drive, but it was later in the third quarter before O'Korn and the offense really started to play well consistently. With the heat, and ineffective Purdue offense meaning little rest (not to mention targeting ejections) it could be that the Purdue D was our-of-gas by then. Certainly not the fresh D Speight faced.
September 26th, 2017 at 2:09 PM ^
September 27th, 2017 at 7:06 AM ^
Preach, brother!
September 27th, 2017 at 9:44 AM ^
I started with "O'Korn played well". If you can't figure out that that means I thought O'Korn threw the ball better than Speight has all year, then I can't help you.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^
I think the decision tree will look something like this:
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How much can Speight practice in the next two weeks to fix his issues?
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If Speight is healthy, practice him up and see if he's back to normal.
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If Speight is hurt, JOK gets all the reps and plays.
- JOK plays until he struggles a lot, in which case Speight comes back if healthy or we're showing everyone our Peters.
Regardless of who starts, the *(&#^$ offensive line has to play better. We're in year #3 of Harbaugh and we can't point the finger at Hoke anymore. This OL needs to play better. The WR have a slight excuse of being mostly freshmen and we know freshmen WR suck. But the OL has to pass block better or else it won't matter who is taking snaps.
September 26th, 2017 at 2:11 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 1:34 PM ^
Harbaugh didn't know exactly what he had with our defense at the start of the season and so he felt more comfortable with Speight. Speight being equal to the family truckster automobile. Now that we're 4 games in and the defense is stout, he feels better about rolling with the sportier O'Korn.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 1:40 PM ^
that Speight's pocket presence is diminished because he's been facing this year's #1 DL since early August?
I'm pretty sure it could cause lots of QBs to have unsettled footwork, despite wearing a don't-hit-me shirt.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:42 PM ^
coupled with new WRs, Speight's timing has been off all year.
JOK looked more decisive in delivering the ball on time, before breaks in routes. Speight has looked late to my untrained eye.
September 26th, 2017 at 1:55 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 3:15 PM ^
His passes came out quicker and were thrown with more zip and authority, and his mobility and escapability were also superior. The offense seemed to have an identity with O'Korn at the helm that's been lacking.
For whatever reason, WS wasn't able to get the offense really moving in anything more than fits and starts. O'Korn deserves the MSU start even if WS is healthy enough to play.
Looking at his performance thus far this season, I wonder if Speight has fully recovered from his Iowa injury; he doesn't seem to be the same gametime QB that he was prior to going down.
September 26th, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^
O'Korn clearly had something on Saturday. Would seem to have earned the next start. But if this was a science experiment, there's no control. The plays were different for O'Korn vs. Speight. Is this because JOK saw different targets and went for it, or because JH changed the play calling for JOK? And assuming both QBs are healthy, what playbook works best vs. Sparty?
If coaching staff believes that Speight has been better overall, why? Is it just that JOK saw his opportunity and stepped it up? Did the energy of the live game boost his performance? And is Speight doing the opposite? Or does JH put heavy weight on the number of live reps a QB gets even if their performance has been shakier? Or is it just that coaching staff saw Speight's struggles as minor issues to correct and that things would suddenly click at some point?
Anyway, I suspect we will see JOK start in the next game but sometimes I think Harbaugh is a little weird and maybe irrational about stuff like this. Coach's pet or something like that.
September 26th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 3:10 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 4:05 PM ^
John O'Korn specifically mentioned how Coach Hamilton had helped rebuild his confidence. That's the difference we see in JOK now.
Just recall what Coach Harbaugh did for Colin Kaepernick and Jake Ruddock. Coaching can make all the difference.
Coach Hamilton obviously made a positive difference for JOK.
Go Blue!
September 26th, 2017 at 11:53 PM ^
What we saw last weekend was a SUPREMELY confident QB.
September 26th, 2017 at 5:04 PM ^
September 27th, 2017 at 12:01 AM ^
The run game opened up, in part, because the passing game was effective. And JOK kept several drives alive with his feet, making throws on the move. If the first 3 games of the season were any indication, Speight would have eaten a sack or thrown a duck each time.
Maybe we win the game 12-10 or something with Speight. I have very little confidence in his ability to direct offensive touchdown drives at this point
September 26th, 2017 at 10:00 PM ^
September 26th, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^
I don't know why...
- Lingering injury?
- Nerves?
- Jedd leaving and Pep coming?
- Skillset poorly suited to present conditions?
Probably some combination of the above. Whatever it is, though, the observable fact is that he played poorly against poor competition in our stadium. JOK played well against poor competition on the road.
Which of those gives you more confidence for playing better defenses, and especially on the road? Based on available information, the answer to me is clearly JOK.
September 27th, 2017 at 12:53 AM ^
If we're going to talk about who should lead the passing game, there should be some ackonwledgement that the wide receivers have been absolute shit. Kekoa Crawford looks like a generic 3-star, not a top-100 recruit. Black is hurt and I'm not convinced that DPJ has any idea of what he's doing at this point. Really, really badly, we took for granted how nice it is to have two fairly boring NFL-caliber WRs.
September 27th, 2017 at 12:56 AM ^
Everyone loves how crazy and unconventional Harbaugh is, yet expect him to make a purely logical choice about who should start at QB. Seems like setting yourself up for disappointment.
September 27th, 2017 at 3:23 AM ^
September 27th, 2017 at 8:54 AM ^
With a porous O-line that has regressed every week, how could you not pick the mobile QB as the starter? Speight was good last year only behind a servicable O-line that included Newsome. When Newsome went down, Speight then got hurt, and under pressure Speight unravelled. Until (if?) the O-line stops allowing jailbreaks, O'Korn has shown the ability to escape the pressure. Case closed.
September 27th, 2017 at 1:11 PM ^
As frustrated as I've been with Speight this season I never advocated him losing the starting job. Even though he looked bad in the spring game, I knew he won the starting job for a reason. I remember Gardner playing horribly in '14 and I wanted Morris SO bad, not because I thought he'd be good, but I thought it would be valuable experience and I thought he couldn't possibly play worse than Gardner was playing. Amazingly, he was worse. Fast-forward to this season. That has always been in my mind this year, especially after Harbaugh announced that JOK and WS separated themselves during fall camp. Given that Peters clearly isn't ready - maybe he would be if he had experienced veterans around him (think Henne '04) and JOK's '16 start was still fresh in my mind - I felt we would just have to ride Speight out and hopefully he'd rediscover good-Speight.
JOK's performance against Purdue changed everything. For the most part he looked really good. He still bailed out of the pocket too early on a few occasions, but as the game went on he quit doing that and moved very intelligently in the backfield. I'm still not sold on JOK; too small of a sample size. Nevertheless, given he looked considerably better than Speight has looked at any point this season I don't see how he hasn't earned the opportunity to start against MSU. With such a young and inexperienced group of pass-catchers coupled with a young and shaky O-line this team needs a veteran signal caller who can make plays. If things have clicked with JOK and what we saw last Saturday is who he is then this team has a real shot at the Big-10 east.
September 27th, 2017 at 1:11 PM ^
As frustrated as I've been with Speight this season I never advocated him losing the starting job. Even though he looked bad in the spring game, I knew he won the starting job for a reason. I remember Gardner playing horribly in '14 and I wanted Morris SO bad, not because I thought he'd be good, but I thought it would be valuable experience and I thought he couldn't possibly play worse than Gardner was playing. Amazingly, he was worse. Fast-forward to this season. That has always been in my mind this year, especially after Harbaugh announced that JOK and WS separated themselves during fall camp. Given that Peters clearly isn't ready - maybe he would be if he had experienced veterans around him (think Henne '04) and JOK's '16 start was still fresh in my mind - I felt we would just have to ride Speight out and hopefully he'd rediscover good-Speight.
JOK's performance against Purdue changed everything. For the most part he looked really good. He still bailed out of the pocket too early on a few occasions, but as the game went on he quit doing that and moved very intelligently in the backfield. I'm still not sold on JOK; too small of a sample size. Nevertheless, given he looked considerably better than Speight has looked at any point this season I don't see how he hasn't earned the opportunity to start against MSU. With such a young and inexperienced group of pass-catchers coupled with a young and shaky O-line this team needs a veteran signal caller who can make plays. If things have clicked with JOK and what we saw last Saturday is who he is then this team has a real shot at the Big-10 east.
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