Were NOT going 8-4. (Counter expectation thread)
Is that you The Knowledge???
The sole loss being Wisconsin.
but when I do, I predict undefeated.
Here. Have an upvote. Dammit.
Irrational optimism is a huge part of sports fandom. Even if there's only one indicator that we could be good, that's enough to believe in for some people. Not criticizing, I am irrationally optimistic. It's just more fun that way (until it suddenly isn't).
As many have said, it comes down to four games:
Florida - Assuming it's Franks that wins the job, I like a Don Brown defense against a first year QB. I just see our defense dominating that game. I'm sure Florida will have a good defense as well, they usually do, but they lost a lot of talent off of last year's defense. This will be a good first test for our young offense, and I think we do enough to get the W.
PSU - I'm just not buying them. They remind me so much of 2011 Michigan, riding the talents of a great player and a lot of luck to a record that didn't accurately reflect the team's quality. I think we'll handle Barkley as we've done every time we've gone against him, however I am worried about their "fuck it, go deep" offense against our young and inexperienced secondary. If we have problems back there, PSU could win a lot of 50/50 balls and score a lot of points. I trust Brown to neutralize Moorhead's offense, and Harbaugh vs Franklin is the biggest mismatch in this game. I think we pull this one out.
Wiscy - I think this is the one we're most likely to lose. I see a game much like last year's, a defensive struggle decided by one or two plays. Wiscy's offense is so unimpressive, Hornibrook seems like such a limited QB and they lost their top 2 RBs from what was a mediocre running game. They do return some nice pieces in the passing game. But their defense will once again be fantastic and I think they'll slow us down enough to get the win in this one.
OSU - Youth and inexperience will no longer be an issue. This team will be essentially a year older, having gone through some tough battles and developed some steel in their spine. I think our DL dominates their OL again and limits their offense, just like last year. The problem is that they will once again have a DL that will get a lot of pressure on Speight/Peters/whomever, so our QB will have to handle the pressure better than they did last year. They lost their entire ballhawking secondary, so that should help, but if we can limit the turnovers (and get a better shake from the officials, which we should being at home) I think we do enough to get the win in this one.
Overall, I've seen 10-2 a lot and I think that seems fair. 10-2 with winning 3 of the big 4 games would be a great season IMO, and set us up for a national title run next year.
If they beat OSU and make the BTC.
If it is 10-2 with losses to OSU and another B10 team and not another conference championship visit, then it is not a great season. Just another very good season.
This is so true.
To be frank, I really don't care much about beating Florida.
If we were to beat the Gators and Badgers, but fall to Penn State and Ohio State to finish third again in the East, that would be satisfactory, but not a good season.
Too many gut punches during the RR and Hoke years have taken the steel out of a lot fan's spines to where they will debate all day why we won't win more than 9 games this season.
Ohio State was supposed to take a step back last season yet look what happened.
It's anyones guess as to how this Michigan team will produce on the field.
Bottom line is it comes down to coaching and raw talent. Check and check.
I started off skeptical but by the end... it moved.
Road losses @PSU and @Wisconsin.
Everyone else...TRAIN PAIN!!!!!!
But I'll take 4 if we beat osu. This year will be very interesting. Hopes are high. Potential is unlimited. All about execution on the offense. It will be a very good season.
GO BLUE!!
Expectations are above the reality bar here IMO. 8-4 would be fine with a win over osu (and Sparty)
The problem there is that we would have to massively shit the bed to beat OSU and still lose 4 games. Can't say it won't happen, but that would be hugely disappointing.
Harbaugh is the man, but I have been worried about how we have played BIG Ten games on the road. Im predicting losses @ Fl (Arlington), PSU (whiteout) , Wiscy, and possibly a slip up @ Goofers or Ind.
“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule.”
- Mr. Jaggers (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)
Excerpted from the B1G Expectations: 2017 Preseason Total Wins Analysis posted in March. Michigan expected wins per S&P+ was 9.03; per FPI, 8.29.
Here is a link to the same set of charts based on 2017 FPI B1GE overall results.
are in the bottom of your bong.
I also think Speight will be injured early with this young O-line. I like Peters (way) better and his high ceiling, and would start him. But, he's way to green to win big games on the road right now, this is why Jim has Speight as the starter.
Some of you act like you are paid to be a realist. If your Michigan damn it, say 12-0!
Why? You're going to be wrong FAR more often than the realists. It's not like I don't cheer for Michigan as much as anybody else just because I don't expect them to win every game.
Suck it realists.
BTW, I am a realist everywhere else, except Michigan Football.
Speight has shown he cant win (big) games on the road...yes? Why would that change with all new WRs and O-line? Defense will be great again, but with Kinnel the most experienced defensive back and the two-deep depth chart recently was ranked by Phil Steele as the least experienced out of 130 teams in the FBS there will be a drop off.
I do have faith in Harbaugh, we are a year away from 11-1 /12-0 pedictions. If we had a really good seasoned QB that could bring the diffence to the big games, yea mabe than this year. I get it - we all want 12-0, not happening till an upgrade at QB. Not with one of Hokes leftovers.
The thing about homerism is it can lead to a lack of appreciation of the team's actual accomplishments on the field, in the face of adversity -- wins are taken for granted in games when they should not be, and nothing is learned from losses.
Realists can appreciate it when the team rises to the challenges they face, because they've made an effort to understand those challenges. For me, it's much more satisfying to win a game I don't automatically assume the team will win, even though I'll also lose more sleep than a homer might when Michigan loses a game it -- realistically -- should have won.
The homerist can rest easy in righteous indignation -- us realists have to wrestle with our own failures in understanding the world. In this case, it's a particularly difficult task -- understanding the dynamics of a complex team based on limited information -- but that's what makes it fun.
You can think Michigan is going to win 11+ games every year all you want but some people actually like to look at sports with some degree of impartiality and realize "hey, this probably isn't our time but we should still win 8 or 9 games." There's nothing wrong with that and the idea that people should be shamed for not blindly buying into the extreme homer perspective is idiotic.
8-4 and 9-3 are good seasons. You act like it's slander to not predict a trip to the playoffs.
If our players are "infected" by attitudes of random posters on a blog, we've got much deeper problems than pessimistic fans.