The State Of The Roster: Basketball
Kam Chatman and DJ Wilson could play major roles in 2016-17. [Fuller]
With the news that Aubrey Dawkins will transfer to UCF, Michigan suddenly has an open scholarship spot and a few different options for what to do with it. Before I get into the different scenarios, here's my attempt at a depth chart for next season if the roster remains unchanged:
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Walton | M-A Abdur-Rahkman | Duncan Robinson | Zak Irvin | Moe Wagner |
Xavier Simpson | (Walton) | (Chatman) | Kam Chatman | Mark Donnal |
(MAAR) | Ibi Watson | (Wilson) | DJ Wilson | |
Austin Davis | ||||
Jon Teske |
There's not much depth on the wings at the moment, especially if three-star SG Ibi Watson isn't ready to jump into the rotation right away. While much of the offseason consternation has focused on point guard and center, Michigan's most pressing need is another contributor at SG/SF, and there are a few ways they can make that happen.
John Beilein mentioned in his press availability today that the team will look to use DJ Wilson more on the wing—for Wilson, that would mean backing up Zak Irvin at the four—which would allow Kam Chatman to be Duncan Robinson's primary backup at the three. While that would go a long way towards alleviating M's depth concerns, both Wilson and Chatman would have to show considerable improvement for that to be an ideal solution. Unless one of Austin Davis or Jon Teske is ready to play spot minutes at center, which seems unlikely, Wilson will be needed at the five, too.
Of course, Michigan has that open scholarship, and it'd be a huge surprise (and failure) if they don't use it. I see four scenarios potentially playing out for Michigan, which I'll list in order of likelihood as I see it.
1. Add A Grad Transfer Swingman
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Walton | M-A Abdur-Rahkman | Duncan Robinson | Zak Irvin | Moe Wagner |
Xavier Simpson | (Transfer Swingman) | (Chatman) | Kam Chatman | Mark Donnal |
(MAAR) | (Walton) | (Transfer Swingman) | (Wilson) | DJ Wilson |
Ibi Watson | Austin Davis | |||
Jon Teske |
This seems to be John Beilein's first choice. Michigan has already reached out to Columbia grad transfer Grant Mullins, a 6'3" combo guard who functioned as a point guard this season but would likely be an off-the-bench shooter; he took just over half his shots from beyond the arc and made them at a 44% clip. Mullins would bolster Michigan's depth at three spots: he'd primarily play shooting guard, alleviate the need for Derrick Walton to slide over when MAAR needs a break—and he could play the point himself if something happens with Walton/Simpson—and give Beilein the flexibility to play some smaller lineups featuring MAAR at the three.
If Mullins doesn't end up here, Michigan would still benefit from going after a guy who could play the two and the three; I'd love to see Beilein go after a strong defender to fill that role.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the scenarios.]
2. Add A Grad Transfer Stretch Four
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Walton | M-A Abdur-Rahkman | Zak Irvin | (Transfer Stretch Four) | Moe Wagner |
Xavier Simpson | (Walton) | Duncan Robinson | Kam Chatman | Mark Donnal |
(MAAR) | (Irvin) | (Chatman) | (Wilson) | DJ Wilson |
Ibi Watson | (Irvin) | Austin Davis | ||
Jon Teske |
I brought up Valparaiso's Alec Peters on Twitter when his name emerged—without any specific schools attached—as a potential grad transfer. Of all the players who've been mentioned so far this offseason, Peters is the best fit for this team. At 6'9", 230, he's a natural four, and he has the ability to play center as well. His rebounding numbers were quite good last year. He'd likely be an upgrade on defense—Valpo finished ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Most intriguingly, he's a high-usage, efficient, inside-outside scorer; Peters made 55% of his twos, 44% of his threes, and 85% of his free throws with no shortage of volume in any of those categories.
Unfortunately, there are a couple significant barriers to Peters ending up in Ann Arbor. Valpo coach Bryce Drew just took the open job at Vanderbilt, giving Peters an obvious landing spot with a coach he knows well. The other is that Peters' primary focus at the moment is on jumping to the NBA:
Junior star Alec Peters is set to graduate this summer and his name has been tossed around as a graduate transfer who could move to another program and have immediate eligibility next season. Vanderbilt was certainly be a possibility for Peters.
When reached late Monday night, Peters reiterated that he intended to enter the NBA Draft. Peters first spoke of declaring for the draft prior to the National Invitation Tournament semifinals in New York.
“All I’m working on right now is finalizing the paperwork to get my name in the draft,” Peters said Monday night. “I’m trying to get a few workouts and maybe get invited to the combine.”
Even if Peters tries to go the NBA route, however, there's a good chance he ends up back in college for his senior year because of the new rule allowing college players to declare for the draft, get the NBA's feedback, and return to school if they don't hire an agent. Peters isn't listed on Chad Ford's top 100 for 2016, which includes several players who haven't declared, and DraftExpress doesn't include him in mock drafts for either 2016 or 2017. Peters doesn't fit the profile of an early entry.
Whether or not Peters is an option, Michigan would do quite well if they can add a starter-quality stretch four, which would allow Zak Irvin to slide down to his natural spot at the three and provide a ton of lineup flexibility with Duncan Robinson coming off the bench. This is my ideal scenario, but it's harder to find a stretch four who fits the profile on the grad transfer market than a bench wing.
3. Bring Back Spike
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Walton | M-A Abdur-Rahkman | Duncan Robinson | Zak Irvin | Moe Wagner |
Spike Albrecht | (Walton) | (Chatman) | Kam Chatman | Mark Donnal |
Xavier Simpson | Ibi Watson | (Wilson) | DJ Wilson | |
Austin Davis | ||||
Jon Teske |
While this option is still on the table, it's not hard to read between the lines here:
Beilein doesn't rule out bringing Spike Albrecht back for next year, but says filling Dawkins' position/role also an important consideration
— Lev Facher (@levfacher) April 6, 2016
Beilein on Xavier Simpson: "He plays the game the right way. He's an elite passer." Says talent plus team need give him chance to play a lot
— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) April 6, 2016
As I've written before, Spike moving on is probably best for both parties. Xavier Simpson could be every bit as good as Spike from the get-go and Beilein won't want to stunt his development by giving him only a minor role as a freshman. Spike, meanwhile, isn't coming back from dual hip surgeries to ride the bench, and he should have plenty of options where a bigger role and a shot at the starting job are available.
If Michigan isn't able to land a grad transfer, however, it'd be better to bring Spike back than leave that scholarship open. At the very least, that would allow Derrick Walton to play a lot off the ball, a role he's done well with in the past; while Michigan would have little choice but to field small lineups quite often, Spike's return would do a nice job of shoring up depth in the backcourt.
4. Add A Late-Rising Recruit
While Beilein has well-documented success with late recruiting fliers, this is the least desirable option. Michigan needs to add a player who could contribute right away, and before you ask, no, Josh Jackson isn't happening.* Beilein's late additions, from Spike and Caris LeVert to MAAR, took a little while to adjust before finding their roles. That would put a ton of pressure on Chatman, Wilson, and Simpson to be significant contributors when the season opens; there wouldn't be much margin for error.
*I will so, so happily eat my words if it does, but it'd be one of the most shocking recruiting coups in a long time.
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Do people seriously not see Mo Wagner's potential? He's obviously very skilled and improved over the course of the season. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but it's not hard to see him being a really high-quality player next season.
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Both of those guys are talented but raw. One more off-season should be enough to make this a very palatable solution.
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Don't follow you: What UM needs most are someone who can guard the Power Forward/second big/whatever so that Irvin can play his more natural position of scoring guard--assuming he can regain his 3 over the summer. There are two or three players that you have listed at center that might at least spell Irvin against bigger players.
This makes the primary need as rumors and you suggest : A perimeter defender who can also handle the ball and shoot the ball. Despite great improvement, MAAR still has to overcome some problems. He's too small to be a great defender in the B10. He can't help that, but he can improve. He's improved his shooting outside and off drives, but he's not lights out yet. He can create offense for himself, but he is still learning how to create for others in a consistent manner. In my opinion, he's better as at 6th man than a starter. Walton also has great strengths (see rebounds and assists), but after two years of foot/ankle injuries and spotty shooting numbers and a freshman backing him up (no matter how great in high school),
A grad transfer seems the most likely to fit this need. Otherwise, keep the scholarship unless Beilein if very certain about the player.
1/2: Walton, MAAR, Simpson
3/4: Robinson, Irvin, Chatman
5: Wagner, Donnal, Wilson
I don't see the need/want for Spike (except emotionally) or a flier. A quality transfer is another matter, but more for talent than depth.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/stats/teamsort/BIG10/DEFENSI…
A quick check of the Big10 team stats shows we were tied for last in rebounds and second to last in blocks per game. We were almost 10 rebounds per game behind MSU and PU. Some of that could be pace dependent (I don't know how many rebounds we get per 100 possessions) but the point remains, we are being hampered by our lack of size inside. Donnal is the only one who tallied more than 10 blocks on the season. If we can actually play a 4 at the 4 and shift Irvin down to the 2 or 3, suddenly we're not giving up an extra 5-10 possessions per game. With our offensive efficiency, that could be enough to get us in the top 1/3 of the conference next season and a decent 5-6 seed for the tournament. But Chatman and/or Wilson have to grab that opportunity. That's the key difference between this team being merely good or having a chance to compete for a league crown.
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Wasn't Michigan right near the top of the B1G in defensive rebounding as a team?
On a good team Irvin would be your third or fourth scoring option but he is basically our go to player with this roster. I certainly hope he shoots the ball much better next year because it was painful watching some of his shot this past season.
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I recall far more of Walton's shots being blocked.
Ace -
Overall I agree with most of what you wrote. I love Spike, but there isn't a good fit for him or the program right now (unless there's more attrition). Here are some comments compared to yours:
-
PG & SG
I think they will be fine with a Walton/Rahk/Simpson trio here. They survived (barely) with just two guys most of the last two years and the starters will be seasoned upper classmen. If Walton/Rahk play about 30mpg you find 20mpg for Simpson and you're in good shape.
If an emergency comes up, you could find a few minutes for Watson or slide Irvin to the 2 like they did some this year. I wouldn't target this position at this point.
-
Center
I really don't want to see Wilson play center anymore. I haven't seen anything in two years that suggest he is a good fit there or even wants to play there. He was recruited to play stretch-4 and that's how he sees his game. Keeping him in the center rotation stunts his growth. If you think he's a lost cause at PF, then let him be the third center I guess. Otherwise, try to see if he can earn minutes at the 4.
As for that third center position, I think you give those few minutes to Austin Davis. He's already as big (or bigger) than Wilson, it is his natural position, it gives you a year separation between Teske (RS), and if freshman Ricky Doyle can be a starter then I think freshman Austin Davis can play 5 mpg as the emergency center.
-
Forward
Irvin gives you flexibility since he can play both spots. And clearly we would be fine with Irvin/Robinson starting next year.
Chatman (and I guess Wilson) has a chance to step up and earn minutes. Ideally he improves enough to play ~15mpg at PF. Then you play Irvin/Robinson 30mpg each and a few minutes for Wilson or a new player. (I disagree that you list him as the back-up 3 in one scenario as that will never happen. If he is on the floor, they keep it simple at the 4 and play either Robinson or Irvin along side at the 3.)
I think the ideal situation would be a true ready-to-play stretch-4. I'm guessing that will be hard to find and Chatman is the best candidate for that. So instead, I think they should find an athletic 3-and-D guy who can play 15 minutes of pure energy - dunks, defense, rebounds, etc. Partner him with a shooter at SF and you're on to something. I'm picturing a guy like Larry Nance Jr, who was raw at first but a solid athlete who learned offense later on.
Most teams play 7-8 games actual minutes with another 2 guys for spot duty so, yeah, I agree with you. If you break it down like thus:
1 - Walton (28) / X (12)
2 - MAAR (30) / Walton (4) / X (6)
3 - Robinson (30) / Irvin (4) / Chatman (6)
4 - Irvin (28) / Chatman (12)
5 - Wagner (25) / Donnal (12) / Davis or Teske or Wilson (3)
You have Walton, MAAR, Robinson, Irvin, and Wagner playing starters minutes with X, Chatman, and Donnal playing bench minutes.
If they can land the Valpo kid, great, because I'm not confident in Kam playing 18 minutes/game right now.
My order of preference:
1. Starting stretch 4 that can push Robinson to the bench with Irvin picking up some minutes at the 4 still. So, something like
3 - Irvin (20) / Robinson (20)
4 - Transfer (28) / Irvin (12)
2. Backup 1/2 combo guard in case Walton or MAAR go down. (Spike would be fine)
3. Bench wing who is a defensive ace that would primarily play the 3, but could theoretically play 2-4.
I know this chart is a little out there and it's insinuating the freshman will have an accelerated learning curve but..
1. Walton/Simpson/MAAR
2. MAAR/Walton/Watson
3. Irvin/Robinson/Watson
4. Wagner/ Irvin/chatman/Wilson
5. Donnal/Wilson/Davis/Teske
The freshman year that Doyle had has me thinking that it's not out of the realm that Davis and or Teske could have an impact just as early as Doyle did. I'm still not sure what we have in Chatman. He's a big question mark IMO.
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Don't feel sweet about the immediate future of this program. Need elite guys.
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I appreciate that Beilein would like a taller player to fill Dawkins position as a first priority, one that can play well on defense. However, unless we can get someone guarenteed to perform well in that role I would really like to see Spike back. Kid has contributed a lot to the program, and is a very nice player, who can fill the one and two very well. Senior leadership and guts go along way to the character of the team, something he would bring, and was sorely lacking this year, in my opinion.
Irvin is not a 4, he is more of a 2 or 3 at best. Michigan cannot consistantly compete for confernece titles as long as we keep starting a 2 at PF and a stretch 4 in the 5 position. Beilein needs to field a larger line up that can play defense and rebound. Instead of what lineup fits the Beilein mold, think instead of what lineup would other teams in the B1G least like to face. I would propose something like:
1: Simpson-Walton
2: MAAR-Irvin
3: Robinson-Chatman
4: Wagner-Wilson
5: Donnal-Teske/Davis
Yes, I would have the two senior coming off the bench. MAAR is better than Irvin and Walton forces his game too much and misses way too many shots. One of the biggest differences from a good playoff Warriors team to a champsionship Warriors team was convincing former starters in the league to take reserve roles and give Golden State the best bench in the NBA. Neither Walton or Irvin will sniff the NBA or D-League so sending to the bench is not devasating to their futures. Do you want to win or patronize seniority?
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