Nothing Easy
[Left and right: Patrick Barron; middle: Eric Upchurch]
Nik Stauskas, with his ability to make almost any shot a good one, made the game look easy. Trey Burke, with his varied and lethal methods for creating offense, made the game look easy, not to mention beautiful.
Nothing about this season's iteration of Michigan basketball felt easy. It's shown in the pictures, in which seemingly every layup attempt required a Herculean feat of strength and body control just to get the ball on the backboard. It's shown in the statistics; according to KenPom, 10.3% of Michigan's two-point attempts were blocked, a mark worse than all but 13 major-conference programs. It's shown in the despairing comments as the offense ground to a halt against Notre Dame before VJ Beachem delivered the coup de grâce to 2015-16 Michigan.
And that's on the good side of the court. Stopping the opponent has never seemed simple under John Beilein, especially the last few years. The flaws on defense have only been magnified as the offense has gone from historically great to merely good. Every flailing layup attempt swatted into photographers' row didn't just serve as a painful reminder of the team's scoring limitations, but also what they lacked on the other end.
[Hit THE JUMP for feelingsball.]
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Joseph Dressler
College basketball is played on a razor's edge. This opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament stands as testament. Seasons ended on a fallaway corner three, a halfcourt shot, a third-chance tip-in, a series of botched inbounds plays, even a waved-off buzzer-beating dunk.
Even in this frustrating season, Michigan was a couple shots and one blown charging call away from facing a 14-seed for the chance to make their third Sweet Sixteen in four years. While that sounds great, it doesn't indicate how little this team resembled the other two.
The Wolverines were also one improbable Kam Chatman corner three away from missing the tournament entirely for the second straight year. That doesn't sound great at all, but it lacks the important context of injuries to star players plaguing the team in both of those seasons.
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Bryan Fuller
It's impossible to shake the feeling that this program is at a crossroads. Michigan is slated to return everyone who contributed down the stretch this season. They'll add reinforcements that include Ohio's Mr. Basketball, Xavier Simpson, who'll fill the critical second point guard spot that Michigan once again manned with a walk-on after injury struck. A year of good health and nominal improvement across the board could see the Wolverines once again on a path deep into the tourney.
Before that happens, however, many questions must be addressed. Should John Beilein shake up his coaching staff after a third straight season in which the defense ranked below 100th? Can Zak Irvin, Derrick Walton, or Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman play the role of lead dog with efficiency? Will the center position be something besides an abject disaster?
There's hope in here that's not too hard to find. We've seen what Irvin and Walton are capable of doing, and it's much more than what's reflected in their season stat lines. MAAR improved every facet of his game this season and emerged as the team's best shot creator—if he can maintain his play while taking on more possessions, Michigan may not need Irvin or Walton to be the top option, and instead they can settle into more suitable roles. Duncan Robinson has Stauskas' outside shooting ability and is beginning to round out the other aspects of his game. Moe Wagner played so well at the end of the season we all wondered why he'd been glued to the bench in favor of Mark Donnal and (especially) Ricky Doyle. There's still a pile of young guys with untapped potential.
There's also the flip side. Irvin and Walton have faltered the last two years when asked to lead the charge; whether that's due to injury, limitations in their games, or both—and it's been both—it's hard not to feel trepidation heading into another season with them as the most experienced options. We're not sure how close MAAR (a 21-year-old sophomore) and Robinson (a D-III transfer) are to their respective ceilings. Wagner follows Doyle and Donnal as the latest new hope at center; for him to succeed where the others have so far failed, he has to start with one of the most basic aspects of the game—playing in control enough to stay on the court.
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Fuller
Next season will mark a turning point one way or the other. Beilein can lean on the team's experience to get the offense back to top-ten level, patch up the leaky defense, and make basketball look easy again while cementing Michigan's (health-permitting) return to the basketball elite. Or the team can look much the same, leaning on stars that aren't quite stars on one end and failing to address their myriad issues on the other, and it'll become more clear that a once-in-a-generation conflagration of talent and coaching is unlikely to be replicated here in the immediate future.
Something needs to click, if only so this basketball team is at least fun to watch again. The last two years have felt like karmic comeuppance for experiencing the joys of the Burke and Stauskas squads; if they were, fair enough, and I hope the debt is paid.
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Yes, similar expectations, but then two of the most important players had season ending injuries.
If we can assume that's not happening (knock on wood), then we should certainly expect vast improvement from a team that doesn't lose a single contributor.
This team improved a ton from last year...from a .500 overall club that missed the NIT to one that (technically) won a game in the NCAA Tournament (or at least made the field). Seven win differential......and, importantly, that doesn't even account for the injuries. Another seven win improvement and this team is a 2 seed.
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I really hope you're right. But I highly doubt it. I think this team will be lucky to make the tournament next year. I want to see some defensive identity going forward.
How can be anything but "happier with our centers" - It can't get worse. How many teams in the B1G had worse center play than us?
whore yourself out to a 1,000 fat chicks for $100 each
8th place finishes, barely squeaking into the NCAA tourney, getting beat by MSU and OSU and knowing we have a couple more marshmallow bigs coming into the program. Actually competing in the Big Dance is to too stressful on someone my age.
Slamming the incoming recruits before you've even seen them play. That's great. Solid fandom right there.
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Did anyone else get the sense that we were the least athletic team in the tournament except for maybe Holy Cross? Even just watching SFA and Middle Tennessee it seemed like they had better athletes than we did. Very frustrating.
A quick first step on offense and lateral movement on defense is lacking with this team.
I actually thought Notre Dame looked much less athletic than us (save for Auguste, but his impact on the game was not outsized). But they made a lot of shots, and played nice post defense in the second half.
I disagree. You mentioned Auguste, but they were throwing alley oops to their PG. They seemed more athletic.
Jackson is the other guy that's a plus athlete, but his athleticism didn't skew the game for ND either.
"Stopping the opponent has never seemed simple under John Beilein, especially the last few years"
Stopping the opponent? Layups? How about just getting the ball inbounds? Thats an adventure on its own
Spartan morons (excuse the possible redundancy) were yelling for Izzo' scalp not that long ago.
Do you really think he changed something to turn it around?
That he started recruiting or coaching differently?
No one stays on top forever. Everything has cycles.
College hoop is highly variable, and, as Ace aptly points out:
"College basketball is played on a razor's edge."
We lost our best, and 6th best, players, for the entire conference season.
In many of the games I watched, I saw the same problem, no reliable first, or second, offensive option. SF Austin and N. IA. played great, especially when getting turnovers and transition shots. When forced into their half court offenses at the end of games, big problems.
So, the situation is not unique to us, it is not because Beilein suddenly forgot how to coach.
Ace sums it up nicely.
We shall see.
For me, Go Blue!
Izzo did change things up actually. Oddly enough he adapted a more Beilein-esque offense focused on 3 point shooting (and did it a lot better this year than we did). He did this while maintaining a top 20 defense and elite rebounding. That's the problem, Beilein no longer has a schematic offensive advantage. He needs to adjust or we're gonna continue to have mediocre seasons like this one.
Their defensive efficiencies from 2014-2016: 28, 47, 51
besides the same ones everybody has about the D and the bigs are:
Can Beilein motivate this team? There is such a sense of complacency on this team. It is beyond maddening. There is no fire or sense of urgency from any player on this team (minus Wagner maybe).
Are any of these players willing to put in the offseason work they need (the way Stauskas and Levert did between years 1&2)? If I was DJ Wilson or Kam Chatman I would live in the gym/weight room. I seriously question if some of these kids want it bad enough.
Can Irvin dramatically improve his decision making?
How do you make horse shoes?
Are there any horse socks?
Is anybody listening to me?
1. Bigs always take time to round into form. Morgan wasn't nearly the Morgan we all loved until he was a Junior (though he was better as an underclassman than the current underclassman are). The post position typically is the most difficult to translate to the next level, because now you're constantly playing guys just as big and just as skilled as you. The impact of this is probably bigger on the defensive side of things. But there is concern that if it hasn't come close to clicking yet (and it hasn't) that it won't. But there is hope. Sure up the defense at the 5 and the rest starts to fall into place a bit more. Get more consistent scoring from the 5, and the offense opens up a lot.
So the scenarios are Wagner could take a huge jump (complete with additional mass) and the other guys could take a marginal step up, and then you have a solid starter at the 5, a guy that at worst is solid offensive depth off the bench (Donnal) with improved defensive positioning (making him less of a liability on that end), and a bigger bodied player that should be able to rebound and body up bigger opponents. That's the good. The negative is little to no improvement from those guys and the fact that Wagner may have been playing hot for a few days and isn't consistently that type of player. So solid or slightly plus at the 5 spot, to dangerous liability at the 5.
2. Irvin could refind his shot, improve his intermediate handle, and start to find that player he was at the end of his soph. year (when he was healthy), but more in a role capacity rather than "I'm the man" capacity. This reduces hero ball, and makes him significantly more efficient. Now he can make plays without the focus of the defense being on him, he can drive a bit and kick without the defense collapsing and stripping the ball from him, and he can hit outside 3s when asked to. Or he already peaked and now his confidence is broken, and he's the same player that we saw this year.
This ranges from a really strong #2 option for any offense that can get you 10-14 points and 3-5 assists a night on average on the offensive end and hold his own on the defensive end or it could be the limited #1 option that we saw much of this year that bogged down the offense.
3. Walton could find his ability to finish in the lane and fall back into his role of only shooting 3s when he has the ball kicked to him. As the #3 option, he isn't tasked with initially getting the defense to react, instead, he gets the offense in and out of sets and can attack the defense (or shoot the open 3) when the defense is rotating, better fitting into his game, getting help away from the bucket, and making him an overall better player.
The range is a very efficient #3 scorer that could go off any game and a decent on ball defender.
4. This all requires MAAR to take a step. I see MAAR's role similar to Darius Morris's role, which is to get into the lane, force the defense to react, and hit some shots when attacking the hoop. I don't think he's quite as good at finishing at the hoop, but he does already have a better outside shot. This type of role sets the rest of the players into their more natural positions. Now you have a 5 that can finish decently, MAAR who can drive and finish, drive and hit the roll man, or drive and kick to Irvin/Robinson/etc. on the outside as the defense reacts.
So 1-4 come into play and you essentially a much better version of the 2011 Michigan team down the stretch of that year. That's a top 15 level offense right there that is fun to watch.
5. We touched on post defense. If the post players can learn proper positioning at least decently, they can make huge improvements in the post. It likely won't magically click, but Wagner has some shot blocking ability, Doyle is at least big enough that he should be able to handle anyone's size, and Donnal has the size to at least defend other guys. Getting them to around a adjD of 100 would make them more than adequate at the 5 where very few teams can actually run their offense through.
6. Probably the biggest thing is stopping perimeter penetration into the lane. This, in my opinion, is most easily fixed by improving Michigan's terrible help defense. Learn a 2-3 zone, learn to slide into the driving lane and stop penetration 15+ feet out, quite letting teams get all the way to the basket with the drive. And when teams do drive, quite getting caught in no man's land on the baseline where you don't cover the block or the three point line. Make the offense at least work for something, no be correct every time.
7. On ball defense can be improved. Walton and MAAR are both laterally quick enough. Dawkins is laterally quick enough (awful at help defense position). Robinson has his limitations but can be covered up a bit, and if he can add mass may be able to slide to the 4 spot where his limitations aren't as exposed (he at least seems willing to rebound, he just isn't strong enough yet to do it consistently). This gives Michigan some possibility to be decent on the parimeter, but on-ball defense won't be a strength with the current guys.
8. In-flux of other talent, find strong roles for them where they can contribute right away in those roles to improve the team overall without asking a ton more (this allows them to be efficient in minutes and potentially make a quite big improvement to the team overall) and you have a team that could easily be top 15 if everything goes right (it never does). Of course, on the flip side, the team doesn't improve at all, the new guys are over loaded with things to do, and Michigan is right back on the bubble, maybe even the wrong side of it. And if things start breaking against Beilein's team, the critics will be even more vocal and out with pitchforks. Players here that, they quite believing in the team, it starts to snowball on them, and you're looking at a .500 year.
Conclusion: Huge variance next season. It all breaks right, and this could be a very fun team to watch. It breaks wrong, and it could be the end of the Beilein era with a very depressing final year.
March 22nd, 2016 at 12:40 AM ^
1. Morgan red-shirted. So yeah, he was better than Donnal, but I don't think you can say he was better than Doyle or especially Wagner.
2. The best comp for Irvin is probably THJ, who also had to explore around a bit before he settled into a role that best suited him.
3. Walton needs to take on a bigger role. We know he can take games over, he just needs to be more consistent with it. Sounds doable for a senior.
If he wants to let MAAR ior Simpson nitiate the offense for much of the game, and play off the ball, that's fine, but nobody creates shots for teammates better than Walton. It's about consistency. Period.
4. MAAR's not a good passer. Maybe if Wagner makes a leap, or Teske offers a long rolling target this can change, but even surround by shooters in Robinson, Irvin, and Walton MAAR still couldn't produce a decent assist rate. Teams don't respect his outside shot, sag of him, and the center isn't making anybody pay anyway.
5. Wagner could bulk up and play much better D, but I suspect that Doyle and Teske are the only legitimate candidates to really improve Michigan's interior D next year.
6 & 7. The perimeter defense is on Beilein. It's always bad. Few guys have been good at it, but the ones that have have tended to be upperclassmen, so there's some hope there at least. It's hard to expect much on this front when Beilein consistently plays guys like Spike, Nik, and Duncan who are massive liabilities.
8. I just don't see the 'downside' scenario there being remotely realistic. Why in the world would this team get so much worse relative to what they were this season?
I just don't see nearly as much variance. This team is a lock to be in the tournament, in the top 5 in the Big Ten, at worst. At best, they are pushing for a Big Ten title and that means a 1 or 2 seed most years.
Keep in mind that pretty much EVERY YEAR nobody saw the breakouts coming from players on the Michigan roster. Even coming into this year, people were ready to ship Donnal off to D3, and then he drops 25 points on Maryland. Last year MAAR almost beat MSU by himself. Spike, Caris, Jordan Morgan defending the Kentucky behemoths. Nobody saw these guys doing what they did until they did it. And while there may not be another sophomore year coming like we saw from Darius, Nik, or Trey...there MAY be a big leap from any number of players on this roster. Just run down the roster and you can envision everyone from Moe, Kam, Aubrey, Muhammed, Xavier Simpson emerging into a major force as a starter.
Nobody should sleep on Beilein's ability to develop talent.
There wasn't an alpha dog scorer (like Burke) or a clear leader (like Novak) on this team. I imagine Caris and Spike were going to play those roles and, poof!, that evaporated with injuries. Hopefully, those roles will be adequately filled next year.
I know why everyone is all "Debbie Downer" about basketball, but at the same time you can't deny the improvement almost unit wide from last year to this year. Beilein has a proven pedigree in development and I would be surprised if Michigan wasn't much improved next year if they stay healthy. With that said, if Coach B has another year where the perception is that the team has underachieved and its the same flaws holding them back, then it's time to move on.
Until defense becomes a priority and rebounding is somelthing that is emphasized, expectations should stay low.
They have 4-5 years of eligibility and all they need to do is do it now.
Mental Toughness is critial at the critical game moment. Don't just get emotionalized and can't make a good shoot.
In 2015, U-M finished 75th in kenpom. This year, pending further changes, we're 58th.
Michigan progressed, but this team objectively was not that much better than last year. Put another way: If U-M improves by 17 kenpom spots again next year, they're still well outside the top 25. I doubt anyone would be happy with that.
That said, it sure looked like the team played much harder defensively in the BTT and the NCAAs than it had previously. Where that intensity was all season is a whole 'nother cause for concern, but at least it suggests there's more under the hood than we showed most of the season.
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It now goes thru 2020-21, so 5 more years. With a new AD coming in, this might have been a mistake by Hackett. Independent of this most recent season's results, the new AD should have made the extension decision. Warde might have extended Beilein anyway, but we will never know. Now Warde is in a challenging situation, with the previous AD having given Beilein a huge vote of confidence.
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March 22nd, 2016 at 12:47 AM ^
over 70% of the team's minutes in the BIG were from underclassmen. to think they have reached their ceiling is absurd. and yes, even JRs can still improve.
NaiIed it Must pIay better Defense and Zak and Derrick must cease and desist with aII the TURN0VERS
Very disappointing. Once again, very little context to the evaluation by the blogger of the basketball program. Big Ten championships/Final Four berths are expected no matter what, and anything less is an excuse. That's unacceptable analysis of any program, at least by anyone who graduated from an institution as good as UM, but especially for a program that is not built on one-and-done.
If Bielein loses Walton and MAAR next year to injuries and if Irvin has back surgery again (have any of you tried to come back from back surgery), then next year will be terrible. Is Beilein to blame? I don't think anyone can blame him except for the obvious: he can't run a program like Duke or Kentucy and a very few others.
If his team comes back intact and stays healthy and performs like it did this year, then yes, there's a major concern. We hope for more than a play-in to the NCAA. Personally, I find nothing in the last two years to make me believe that UM will stay flat, baring injuries or something very unexpected.
March 22nd, 2016 at 12:22 AM ^
The track record of player development for Beilein remains overwhelming positive. MAAR and Donnal made massive strides this year. So did Irvin really, in everything beyond shooting. Irvin's at the sophomore year THJ step of his career, where he has pushed his individual limitations. Expect the full well-rounded package to come back for a big senior year.
The big questions (IMO) are:
Can Walton be more than an excellent complementary player and embrace the alpha dog role to produce consistently.
Is Doyle ready to take a step forward, as the lone veteran physically able to play center?
Are Chatman, Dawkins, or Wagner ready to make the kind of massive leap that Donnal made in his 3rd year?
Will any of the freshman shove veterans out of the rotation?
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March 22nd, 2016 at 12:16 AM ^
The "impossible" and "hard" things to feel/imagine are actually quite easy to feel/imagine.
Michigan isn't at a cross-roads, they just need a healthy season so that they don't have to rely on so much damn youth. Michigan next season isn't a "turning point", it's about staying on the road they are on -- a season that saw improvement for almost every player (Doyle and perhaps Dawkins excepted, and both those can be at partially explained by the emergence of Donnal and Robinson, respectively).
MAAR is Michigan's best shot-creator FOR HIMSELF. His passing is way below adequate to be handed the keys to this offense.
A lot of good points made above, but the overall negativity and melodrama is off the mark, IMO.
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1. 100% return - that's huge in college hoops. Guys get better, more confident and decent coaches learn how to use them better. MAAR will be used better, Donnal's confidence will improve, Wagner will get better, gain confidence and be used better. Same for Robinson.
2. We are really underrating our recruiting class, especially Xavier Simpson. He looks to be a tremendous player, if he were a couple inches taller he would be a "one and done" talent. He was the best player in the state of Ohio. He will be the real deal from day one and make it possible for Walton to play proper minutes. Austin Davis had a double double in 23 out of 24 games. He had 46 pts, 13 rebs, and 9 blocks in a regional class B tournament game. (42/19/6 in district finals) He's 6' 10" and shot 77% from the line. Teske is over 7'.
3. Without any transfers or redshirting that puts UM at 7 bigs. Wagner/Donnal/Davis/Chatman/Teske/Wilson/Doyle (in order of my opinion of them) Can we possibly be the worst interior defense in the country again? There is no way that Zak Irvin (or Robinson) plays at the 4 - add those two to the wing depth and rotate the 7 bigs into 2 spots the center and a real power forward.
Anything less than mid 20 wins, top 4 in B1G and #4 or better seed in Big Dance, will be a disappointment.
Unless Chatman takes a huge leap, Irvin is your 4. Less than ideal, obviously, but playing (for example) Donnal and Wagner together pushes a scorer out of the lineup. Also not sure Donnal is who you want defending an athletic opposing 4.
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Thanks for response to my post. I don't disagree in that we will continue to see Irvin at the 4 - but I think the roster numbers should force some revision of that strategy - otherwise is Beilein using 7 scholarships on 1 position? Plus if you've been playing a 4 guard offense and you're the worst in the country - that's worst in the country (based on shooting percentage in paint) in interior defense, you may want to go to two bigs. Sure they may not be Teske and Donnal at the same time, but ideally I think Wagner has the quickness for the 4. If Davis and Teske pan out and play as freshmen, Wagner/Chatman/Wilson will need to be 4's.
Doesn't the idea of Irvin playing the 4 again worry you? I don't want to bash him - he's clearly a decent 3.
As for the roster allocation issue, that is indeed another major concern. My guess is not everyone who is projected to be here will be here. Michigan has had plenty of transfers under Beilein (Bielfeldt, Horford, McLimans, Smotrycz, Brundidge, Christian—that's just the past four or five years); it would be surprising if that trend didn't continue.
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