OT: Historically lucky ACC 2nd-round seeding?

Submitted by 1974 on

I just noticed that the ACC has placed six teams in the Sweet Sixteen of this year's NCAA tourney. That's a remarkably high number and it prompted a look at the details, which I found very interesting.

*All six* teams faced the lowest possible seed in the second round:

Virginia (1) over Butler (9)
North Carolina (1) over Providence (9)
Miami (3) over Wichita State (11)
Duke (4) over Yale (12)
Notre Dame (6) over SFA (14)
Syracuse (10) over MTSU (15)
 
The first two aren't that remarkable, as there's not much difference between an 8 and a 9.
 
There are quite a few 6-11 and 5-12 upsets every year, so those aren't very odd, either, though Yale doesn't strike me as a typical "12."
 
Look at the last two, though. 14s rarely beat 3s, and 15s have beaten 2s fewer than ten times in history. (Thanks, Sparty.) Which conference benefitted in both cases? The ACC. (To the credit of Syracuse, they at least had to beat a higher-seeded team, #7 Dayton, to get to the second round.)
 
In other words, everything went the ACC's way in the first round. Also, I might have too much time on my hands.
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cezical

March 20th, 2016 at 10:25 PM ^

The ACC has been the best conference the past 2 seasons in basketball... Making up for their 2 team game with the rest being scrubs in football.

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bacon

March 20th, 2016 at 10:34 PM ^

I'm wondering how you fit the tin foil hat over all that hair. It's a fantastic head of hair, no doubt, but too bad you have to keep it covered these days.

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wahooverine

March 21st, 2016 at 12:03 AM ^

You apparently forgot to mention Wichita State which was blatantly underseeded (even after loss #8 on Kenpom) and led by two great senior guards, and Stephen F Austin (#26) which is above Syracuse, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Cal, Texas, Utah, Cinci.  Also underseeded.  You can really only say that Syracuse (avoiding MSU) and to a lesser extent Duke (avoiding Baylor) got lucky.  

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MaizeAndBlueWahoo

March 21st, 2016 at 11:06 AM ^

I wouldn't call Wichita State underseeded.  I'm with the argument Seth has made in the past: if you're going to seed based on advanced metrics, then you might as well not hold the tournament because it's silly to say seeding is based on the metrics but now we're switching to making it based on win-or-go-home results.  WSU beat Utah and.... ummm, Utah just that one time, and that's about it.  More bad losses than good wins = very fair to make them prove themselves.

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Muttley

March 21st, 2016 at 12:31 AM ^

 

 

1 Seed UNC
vs (5)Indiana then (6)ND/(7)Wiscy winner

1 Seed UVA
vs (4)Iowa St then (10)Syra/(11)Gonzaga winner

1 Seed KU
vs (5)MD then (2)Nova/(3)Miami winner

1 Seed ORE
vs (4)Duke then (2)Okla/(3)TAMU winner

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M-Dog

March 21st, 2016 at 11:17 AM ^

Seeding is a forcast.  Results are actual.  

If a 12 seed beats a 5 seed, the 12 seed is the 5 seed now.

The ACC has only been "lucky" against a forecast.  But against actual results, they simply took care of business and beat the teams in front of them who were actually supposed to be there all along. 

 

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jakerblue

March 21st, 2016 at 12:48 PM ^

don't know why OP is getting crap.  He wasn't whining about ACC having an easy road.  He was just pointing out something interesting and probably statistically anomalous.

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