Beating Alum96 to the Punch: 1/27 Recruiting Swim Lanes
EDITED after McDoom's commitment.
Hello. MGoBoard Crazy Person LSA Superstar here. Because Alum96 is evidently a person who sleeps sometimes, I'm starting today's recruiting diary for obsessives.
We have 24 25 commits. Based on the "dark web," one is unlikely to qualify. Two others, Elliott and N. Johnson, are admittedly shaky. That puts us at 21 22 firmly committed spots, leaving nine eight potentially vacant spots absent any surprise flip losses. We supposedly can go up to 30, but Lorenz seems to think the number is more likely 28 or 29.
Based on those spots, I think the board looks like so:
- RESERVED FOR GARY
- CB
- Non-Gary DT
- TE
- BPA
- BPA
- BPA(?)
- BPA(?)
Then you pool the players we remain in for. As you can see from the board above, it's worth designating five of these guys as "takes no matter what" - the four BPA slots plus Gary. I think, based on announcement timing, Michigan's evident interest, and a variety of other factors, that those guys are sorted as follows:
TAKES NO MATTER WHAT THAT COACHES WILL HOLD OUT FOR:
- Gary
- Hudson
- Asiasi
- Hill
- Fuller
Then you have the other dudes we're in on, in no particular order:
- Tagaloa
- Elliott
- Murphy
- Stewart
- Allen
- Nordin
- Young
- Viramontes
And the players with whom our position is mysterious:
- Eubanks
- Simmons
- J. Jones
- Price, I guess
And the players who might be left out in the cold because of recent commitments:
- N. Johnson
Next, you look at the announced order of committments. Although Lorenz walked it back to a degree (as is his right), he reported that the coaches may have tried to "time" some of these announcements. It's my theory that some commits have been told to announce sooner because they're takes right now, whereas others have been told to announce on signing day because they're still-coveted backup plans (Gary is an obvious exception). Once players get the pitch from the coaches to play this game, they're either doing what they want ("no thanks, I'll announce when I want, coach") or playing along
If I'm right (it happens occasionally), the following "rules" emerge:
1.) Hudson is announcing today. I think that means that Hudson one of the coaches' two BPAs because Hudson is widely expected to commit to Michigan. Hudson takes a spot.
2.) McDoom is rumored to be announcing tomorrow. If McDoom commits as expected, he takes the slot spot and Johnson gets in only as a BPA. Lorenz has suggested that Johnson may be out of luck entirely if McDoom commits. Young's only chance becomes as a CB or BPA. McDoom's commitment may mean the end of Nate Johnson's recruitment/commitment (commuitment?) because I don't think he's rumored to be able to play any other position than slot. I think Pie Young is still in the mix as either a CB or a BPA. But McDoom's pledge isn't great news for Pie.
3.) Fuller announces next Monday. Fuller would fill a CB spot. If he commits elsewhere, we put the full court on Hill, who's probably a "must take" anyway. If Hill commits elsewhere as well, Young gets the spot as a CB. I think this is Young's best shot at being in the class.
4.) If Asiasi commits (I do think there's a chance), I think we may not take Allen or Eubanks's commitments. I could very well be wrong about Allen, and I hope I am because I love his tape.
5.) I think we'll take both non-Gary DTs if we have room, although neither seems very likely to commit. I think our only chance at Tagaloa is if Asiasi commits. I'm more optimistic on Elliott than some, but not very optimistic.
6.) I think we lead for Murphy, Young, Nordin, and Stewart, and I think all of them would commit today if they were given the green light. I personally think that we should have given the green light to Murphy months ago, but I don't think the coaches feel that way based on the progression of his recruitment.
DISCLAIMERS: This is all my opinion, synthesized from a bunch of stuff I've read that might be made up. I don't have any insider connections. I don't have any coaching connections, and I'm not a coach myself.
January 27th, 2016 at 10:16 AM ^
Uh oh. Aulm 96 is going to be pissed! Swim lane fight??
January 27th, 2016 at 10:45 AM ^
What. Is. That???? It's hysterical!
January 27th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
Maybe the single greatest video montage ever...
January 27th, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
Best part is when the guy tries to shake Phelp's hand!!
January 27th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^
logged in just to upvote. one of the best non-michigan-football gifs we've seen yet!
January 27th, 2016 at 2:15 PM ^
I spit my lunch
January 27th, 2016 at 2:36 PM ^
Who knew "swim lane fight" would be a thing that would ping on a google search...
January 27th, 2016 at 10:21 AM ^
I hadn't heard anything about McDoom announcing tomorrow. Did you read that somewhere?
January 27th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
announces today and that he picks UM!
January 27th, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^
was this before or after the triple Hello posts?
if after, nice try
January 27th, 2016 at 11:38 AM ^
....... he says with incredulous and honest look on face. Has McDoom now committed? Winner winner, chicken dinner!
January 27th, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
i feel bad reading this because i feel like im cheating on alum96
January 27th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^
Alum96 would have known that McDoom was going to commit and put off posting for a half hour to include that data point!
January 27th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^
January 27th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^
January 27th, 2016 at 1:43 PM ^
everything's a competition when harbaugh's around
January 27th, 2016 at 2:06 PM ^
There is a 50/50 chance we're gonna have a spot for you Alum. Need to see how you perform down the stretch here.
...too soon? Ha!
January 27th, 2016 at 12:58 PM ^
I think you have to move Elliott, Tagaloa, Murphy, and McDoom all up to the takes Dept.
January 27th, 2016 at 2:22 PM ^
Harbaugh would want us to engage in heathly competition on this blog, even for swim lane posts.
January 27th, 2016 at 2:47 PM ^
Interesting. Only one week away from really knowing.
January 27th, 2016 at 2:50 PM ^
We know some announcement dates, but we can assume that some of these recruits have already told the coaches that they are in or out. It's reported that certain recruits have been asked to wait until we're sure there's a spot for them. How long are they willing to wait?.It's interesting to speculate what every new visit means.
I find the TE recruiting the most interesting now and think knowing Asiasi and Tagaloa's timeline would make things a lot clearer.
January 27th, 2016 at 2:55 PM ^
Pie Young is ballzing towards Louisville FWIW
January 27th, 2016 at 2:55 PM ^
You were able to write the following sentence:
"But McDoom's pledge isn't great news for Pie"
and have it make perfect sense.
January 27th, 2016 at 5:29 PM ^
this is already out-of-date with Hudson's commit and rumors that Pie might have been told there isn't room. Things are just crazy.
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