First Look: 2016 Offense Comment Count

Brian

DEPARTURES IN ORDER OF SIGNIFICANCE.

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[Fuller/Fuller/Barron]

  1. QB Jake Rudock. Iowa transfer was a jittery mess for the first half and Andrew Luck Jr for the second. Cracked 3,000 passing yards with good efficiency and a solid TD/INT ratio; ended year by dicing up three top-ten pass defenses. Will be missed unless Harbaugh just Harbaughs himself another excellent QB, which is Harbaugh likely.
  2. C Graham Glasgow. Three year starter was always good even if it was near-impossible to tell without going into UFR-level depth. Stepped up as a senior and was, IMO, an All Big Ten-level performer. Michigan has a couple promising options to replace him; don't underrate his loss.
  3. TE AJ Williams. Went from symbol of the flaccid Hoke era to symbol of the player development Jim Harbaugh brings to the table. Improved his blocking immensely, quadrupled career receiving stats, was no longer a one-dimensional tight end who did not actually deliver on that dimension, blew guys off ball with consistency. I don't think I've ever seen a senior get that much better since… Bennie Joppru? Probably Bennie Joppru.
  4. FBs Sione Houma and Joe Kerridge. Treated as a unit. Solid to excellent blockers both with Kerridge a capable receiver and captain and Houma a promising mooseback capable of juking Florida linebackers. Normally a position met with a shrug these days, it's a much bigger deal under Harbaugh. Henry Poggi returns but hasn't touched a ball in anger yet.
  5. As of yet unknown attrition. Departures are on the way. Some of those will undoubtedly be on offense. Guys not playing at WR, RB, and QB are likely to be amongst the departures. None project to have significant 2016 roles unless the wild Rivals rumor about a starting OL not being asked back pans out. I'm skeptical about that.

WHAT'S LEFT

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[Upchurch/Fuller/Fuller]

  1. TE Jake Butt. 654 receiving yards a year ago with two-count-em-two drops all year. Blocking was finesse but relatively effective. Smoked touted Florida CB on route in bowl game. Should be nation's top receiving tight end and get that Mackey award he was inexplicably denied this year. A bit more oomph on the ground would be nice.
  2. OL Mason Cole. Emerged into a top-shelf run blocker in year two. Pass blocking was generally good but there were struggles against elite edge rushers like Yannick Ngakoue and Joey Bosa. Smart, technical player could get moved inside if Grant Newsome is Michigan's #5 OL.
  3. WR Jehu Chesson. Comparisons went from Stonum to Breaston to Manningham over the course of the season. Multi-use threat effective as a runner, blocker, and increasingly as a receiver. 764 yards and 9 TDs despite being chronically missed for the first half of the season, plus a KOR TD and a number of jet sweeps that went a long way. Has his shit together.
  4. WR Amara Darboh. Avant comparisons were on point, as he amply demonstrated on that catch. You know. That one. Solid intermediate threat with excellent hands and a large catching radius. Avant-esque. Like Avant. Reminiscent of Avant.
  5. RB De'Veon Smith. Nuclear-powered icebreaker back was frustrating much of the year but great against the Gators. If proverbial click has clicked and he knows where to go most of the time can be prototypical Harbaugh back. Superior blocker; may get drafted at fullback part-time a la BJ Askew.
  6. OLs Erik Magnuson, Kyle Kalis, and Ben Braden. All thrown into the same lump because they were more or less the same guy. All had their struggles, particularly the guards; all had their successes. All are likely to get incrementally better as senior returning starters, but it wouldn't be out of the question for one of them to get knocked out of the lineup if Kugler and Newsome emerge or Michigan picks up Texas grad transfer Jake Raulerson.
  7. FB/TE Henry Poggi. Last year's version of early AJ Williams. Had one catch for two yards, did not carry the ball, was a blocker and only a blocker. As a blocker he was generally effective when he made contact with a person. He failed to accomplish this with understandable frequency since he was flipped from the DL in spring. Should improve significantly in that department but must be more of a threat to have the ball.
  8. RB Drake Johnson. Michigan's quickest back by far but career has been limited by injury.
  9. RB/WR Jabrill Peppers. Oh right that guy. In year two under Harbaugh should emerge as a guy who gets ten touches a game on a variety of screens, sweeps, and straight-up runs and throws.

WHAT'S NEW, OR CLOSE ENOUGH, ANYWAY

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O'Korn is generally considered the leader at QB [Fuller]

Probably John O'Korn. Michigan's QB derby is currently a five-way battle that will add a sixth contender in Brandon Peters and maybe a seventh if Harbaugh goes back to the grad-transfer well, but after a season of scout-team hype anyone other than Houston transfer O'Korn would be a moderate surprise.

O'Korn is the platonic opposite of Jake Rudock. He is Ryan Mallett, more or less, capable of throwing for 3,000 yards as a true freshman and equally capable of going full Hackenberg on WR screens in an increasingly frustrating situation and getting deservedly benched as a sophomore. He is a big, strapping fellow with good wheels who can uncork pinpoint 40-yard passes on the run. He threw an array of insane interceptions and made other mistakes in bunches at Houston, but given a year of understudy under Harbaugh both the natural maturation process and the coaching upgrade promise big things.

Half the running back rotation. This space projects that De'Veon Smith ends up absorbing most of the carries from the fullback spot and plays enough RB to remain Michigan's leading rusher. That will leave about half the total carries available. Peppers, Karan Higdon, Ty Isaac, and freshmen Kareem Walker and Kingston Davis figure to scrap over the remainder.

Only Peppers is a lock to get a bunch of touches, because he is Peppers. The rest could go anywhere; Michigan fans are hoping the freshmen step up immediately. It could happen.

An offensive lineman, maybe two. Grant Newsome is a heavy favorite to be the fifth starter on the offensive line after Michigan burned his redshirt midseason so he could be a sixth OL in heavy packages. Newsome is an ideal left tackle, though, and Michigan has an incumbent. Look for Mason Cole to move inside, as his run blocking is considerably ahead of his pass protection.

It is possible that Michigan could mix things up more extensively if they feel their best five includes Patrick Kugler or Raulerson, potentially bumping Mason Cole to guard instead of center. If that happens it's probably a good thing.

Receivers and blocky/catchy types past the Big Three. We're filing Grant Perry as "new" since he made little impact last year except in the first and last games. In the former case that impact was massively negative; in the latter a pleasant surprise. Perry, Drake Harris, Moe Ways, and tight ends Ian Bunting and Khalid Hill will compete to fill snaps vacated by Williams and the departing fullbacks.

Unless there's an injury none will emerge into prime targets; the goal there is for Michigan to have guys ready to step in when Darboh, Chesson, and Butt all depart after next year.

WHAT'S ROD STEWART 1976

The peripheral nature of most of the previous section's bullet points. Michigan needs to find a QB, an OL, and half a running back. They have less to replace than 95% of D-I programs.

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[Fuller]

Three Amigos 2016. Butt, Darboh, and Chesson are a receiving trio that might be on par with the famous Braylon/Avant/Breaston set. If Chesson continues his development he is a legit #1; Butt probably would have been the second tight end off the board if he announced for the NFL draft; Darboh is a circus-catch wizard and burly possession guy to move the chains. Nobody in the league is going to have a set of pass-catchers like that.

Continuity. Hey look Michigan has the same coaching staff for the second consecutive year, running the same offense. They have the same players running it, for the most part. This has been a rare treasure of late.

Experience. Michigan projects to have seniors start at eight of eleven positions, and one of the exceptions is Mason Cole.

WHAT'S ROD STEWART 2016

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how much better can these gentlemen get? [Upchurch]

Blocking upside. I thought Michigan had two very good offensive linemen and three guys who were meh. One of the very good guys is gone; the three meh guys are all going to be redshirt seniors. I'm not sure how much any of them will improve. I mean, they should improve, but the kind of leap Cole took last year from meh to very good is unlikely.

Similarly, I don't think Jake Butt is suddenly going to be a murderous blocker. This doesn't feel like a run game that gets amazing unless it was really all targeting issues.

WHAT'S HEISENBERG ROD STEWART UNCERTAINTY

The O'Kornininging, or Speightininging, or Whoeverining. New quarterback is always a worry, albeit less so when Jim Harbaugh is his quarterback coach. O'Korn has all the tools you could want and seemingly went to Houston because he was wild and unrefined. He could be Ryan Mallett or he could be Ryan Mallett, if you get my drift.

Will the tailbacks be any good? I'd give that position group a D for the year. Kareem Walker may not be the quick fix everyone was vaguely hoping for when they heard the #1 back in the country was going to decommit from OSU and flip to Michigan. Recruiting consensus on Walker has dipped to the point where he's a good, not great prospect. (This might actually be good for Michigan given the track record of five-star backs in Ann Arbor.)

Smith and Johnson gave a glimmer of hope in the bowl game, enough to bump this from bad to dunno.

MANDATORY WILD ASS GUESS

It all hinges on INSERT QB HERE. If he comes in hot and we get a year of Late Rudock production this should be an offense that takes a major step forward. Whoever does  get the job is going to have a terrific receiving corps, solid or better pass protection, and Jabrill Peppers hanging around.

The run game is a bit of a question mark still. Michigan has no slam-dunk back and probably won't see their OL take a quantum leap forward. Real improvement is likely, though. Michigan gets four OL back and will have continuity, plus both returning tailbacks who played in the bowl showed major improvement.

For context, Michigan finished 30th in offensive S&P+ this year, 43rd on the ground and 8th(!!!) in the air. They should be able to push the ground number up 10 to 20 spots, and if O'Korn hits the ground running and maintains that passing number—somewhat tough but he'll be operating in a friendly environment—Michigan should get into the top 20 teams statistically.

I'd say maintaining the passing production is unlikely,  but a quick glance at Jim Harbaugh's track record with quarterbacks suggests it is anything but.

Comments

markusr2007

January 6th, 2016 at 6:53 PM ^

Fullback is going to be an issue. There is no apparent replacement for what Houma provided UM. It was another weapon teams had to prepare for. That chamber needs to be filled with a new cartridge.



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smwilliams

January 6th, 2016 at 8:12 PM ^

I think people are overlooking exactly how important the FB is in Harbaugh's offense. Poggi and Khalid Hill are more H-Backs than the FBs Harbaugh likes to use. You ned a burly guy, low to the ground, who is a good blocker. Michigan has currently none of those on the roster. I'm guessing that's why Brian brings up Smith as a possibility to see some FB snaps. Wouldn't be shocked to see Shallman get moved there too.

Magnus

January 7th, 2016 at 9:55 AM ^

IMO, Shallman should be the #1 option at fullback next year. That presumes that Michigan can't find better tailbacks than Smith. If Walker/Johnson/Isaac/Davis can be as good as or better than Smith, then I wouldn't mind seeing Smith lead blocking.

Wolvie3758

January 6th, 2016 at 7:34 PM ^

I cant wait 9 more months....I want it NOW...I havent been this excited for a Michigan season in a LONG LONG Time and Ive seen ALOT of seasons.....48 of them

maize-blue

January 6th, 2016 at 7:49 PM ^

Any word on Freddy Canteen? I know he bounced around from Offense to Defense this season, but alot expected him to be the slot weapon that Perry is seemingly getting wrapped up.

uminks

January 6th, 2016 at 8:18 PM ^

Probably has O'Korn all coached up and ready for 2016! Though if Peters blows Harbaugh away with his play this summer he could start as a freshman.

CoverZero

January 6th, 2016 at 11:49 PM ^

You mention Drake Johnson as returning, however you then did not count him in on any non De'Veon carries.  ?

If Drake is healthy, he and De'Veon should share the bulk of the carries.  He still provides quickness and vision that no other current back on the roster possesses.

alum96

January 7th, 2016 at 12:30 AM ^

One suggestion go foreward is a mini section by positon on and we colud least affp and injuy.   Tis yv is  abit obbviousl (LB, safeottis DE &   etc)

UncleChuck24

January 7th, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^

I don't know about any of you, but Houma was fun to watch. I'm going to miss him the most personally. I say that because he was an unsung leader from what I could see. He was everything you want in a leader without being named an actual captain.

bigtim55

January 15th, 2016 at 10:57 AM ^

For all you guys that are saying deveon smith will move to fullback next year please stop it. That is the stupidest thing ive heard.. her is why... the guy played hurt all year after the byu game. he will be a serious pro in the nfl one day he runs really hard and you put him behind a nfl line the chains will move. he may end up being the big ten leading rusher next year. hes the best runningback on the team periord. jim hardbaugh made him his starting runningback for a reason...also he is the best pass blocker in the country!!! in the NFL you have to be able to move the chains and block. the florida game prove what typre of back he is when healthly. he will get 20-25 carries next year!!! GO BLUE 3-4round draft pick maybe 3rd if he has a great year. u guys cant tell me one runningback in michigan history that runs hard than deveon!!!

bigtim55

January 14th, 2016 at 1:18 PM ^

google the 2017nfldraft deveon smith is rated the #16 out of 281 college runningbacks in 2017nfldraft and thats off playing on a bad foot all year. pretty sure all the draft experts are smarter than than you yall.. case close.