Projecting the 2016 Football Class - V4.0
Updating projections as we go along and get material new info and changes. This will be version 4; future updates will happen on an as needed basis.
- V3.0 (12/9)
- V2.0 (11/25)
- Way too Early Edition (6/03)
Working framework
- Lorenz indicated Michigan has now signaled they have 27 spots (not 28 as we all assumed)
- 23 current commits.
- Various peeps with premium access say we will grayshirt here or there, so I made some projections with that in mind. I grayshirted 1 player. That knocked down class to 22* (*grayshirt is still part of class but doesnt count against scholarship until January).
- We will have attrition from our current recruits, so I took best guesses and knocked out 2 from here. That knocked current class down to 20.
Changes since last update
- RB Kareem Walker went from "projected in class" to "committment".
- LB Devin Bush Jr. went from "projected in class" to "committment".
- WR Nate Johnson came out of nowhere to "committment".
- LB David Reese went from "likely decommittment" to "he gone".
- TE Chase Allen was offered and has been immediately moved to "projected in class".
- RB Kingston Davis and WR/DB (??) Ahmir Mitchell are signed and in the class, EE.
Section 1 deals with current commits - who is staying and who is going. And who is going to open a spot by grayshirting. I listed us with 20 immediate scholarships and 1 grayshirt - with 2 decommits. Will discuss below chart.
STAYING | GOING | |||||
Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk | |
OL | Ben Bredeson | 37 | Maybe to Likely? | |||
RB | Kareem Walker | 38 | ATH | Kiante Enis | 647 | |
QB | Brandon Peters | 62 | DT | Rashad Weaver | >1000 | |
DL | Jordan Elliott | 95 | ||||
OL | Michael Onwenu | 109 | ||||
WR | Ahmir Mitchell | 130 | ||||
OL | Devery Hamilton | 235 | ||||
LB | Devin Bush Jr | 238 | ||||
WR | Brad Hawkins | 281 | ||||
DL | Ron Johnson | 292 | ||||
OL | Erik Swenson | 293 | ||||
DL | Carlo Kemp | 314 | ||||
ATH | Chris Evans | 327 | ||||
WR | Nate Johnson | 529 | ||||
CB | Sir Patrick Scott | 667 | ||||
RB | Kingston Davis | 889 | ||||
S / LB | Devin Gil | 994 | ||||
TE | Sean McKeon | >1000 | .. | |||
CB | Antwaine Richardson | >1000 | ||||
LB | Dytarious Johnson | >1000 | ||||
Grayshirt | ||||||
S | Josh Metellus | >1000 |
BOLD = locked in, signed
Comments
- David Reese was an obvious projected decommit and that finally happened; he is set to announced tomorrow and it looks like Florida which sets up years of comparisons between him and Bush. That said Bush is important on a broader scale in terms of striking into the heart of FL and getting a top 250 type recruit - will increase talk from locals about coming north to Michigan. Also a top end 2017 CB prospect plays at Flanagan. But I digress.
- The other 2 decommits could come from just about any players ranked below 600, so I picked 2. I feel Kiante Enis (who noted in a story a few weeks back was not getting much contact from UM) is even more likely to decommit now than last 2 recaps as he had an official to Indiana this past weekend, while fellow Indiana types came up to Michigan on visits. I continue to have Rashad Weaver as the other - he visited Temple a few weeks ago.
- Antwaine Richardon visited last week and will not be EE but seems in the class no matter what. I cant imagine Jim kicking out Gil and Metellus at this point - bad optics and we want a FL pipeline scool. McKeon is a TE and we look to be missing on the 3 top TE targets (Upshur, Nauta, Mathis) so I imagine he stays. That leaves Sir Patrick Scott or Dytarious Johnson - could see maybe 1 bumped as well - we are recruiting a lot of players at Scott's position and some rumors on boards about Johnson's grades. But for now I went with the 2 listed above as decommits.
- I am going with Josh Metellus as a grayshirt... as a guess.
Section 2 is who we will land and who we will miss on. This is based on trying to reverse engineer - obviously these things can change on a dime. I cheated here a bit by saying Quinn Nordin will be part of the class and decommit from PSU and go to UM despite having to pay out of pocket for a semester. Maybe a stretch but he is a Michigan kid and hey Harbaugh or Franklin for 4-5 years? So this would take us to 29 total commits... 2 grayshirts plus 27 normal.
FUTURE YES | FUTURE NO | |||||||
Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk | Projected | Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk | Projected | |
Most Likely | Solid Chance? | |||||||
DL | Rashan Gary | 1 | UM | CB | David Long (Stanford) | 63 | Stanford / UM | |
OL | Terrance Davis | 65 | UM | OL | Jean Delance | 90 | Texas / LSU | |
TE | Chase Allen | 562 | UM | WR | Dylan Crawford | 101 | Oregon | |
PK | Quinn Nordin* (PSU) | >1000 | UM | |||||
Some Shot? | ||||||||
Less Certainty | LB | Dontavious Jackson | 123 | Texas? | ||||
CB | Lavert Hill | 143 | UM / MSU | ATH | Jordan Fuller | 128 | OSU | |
LB | Jonathan Jones | 422 | UM / ND | DL | Connor Murphy | 205 | USC | |
DB | Chris Brown | 717 | UM / TX | DL | Levi Onwuzurike | 273 | WASH | |
OPEN SPOT | TE | Jacob Mathis | 315 | UF | ||||
Limbo | ||||||||
* | Grayshirt | WR | π Young | 394 | UM | |||
ATH | Victor Viramontes | 435 | ||||||
ATH | Khaleke Hudson | 593 | WV | |||||
Unlikely | ||||||||
TE | Isaac Nauta | 9 | GA | |||||
ATH | Mecole Hardman Jr | 19 | AL | |||||
. | LB | Caleb Kelly | 23 | OK | ||||
DT | Boss Tagaloa | 96 | UCLA | |||||
WR | Donnie Corley | 119 | MSU | |||||
DL | Chris Daniels | 171 | OK | |||||
WR | Velus Jones (USC) | 426 | TN? Ore |
Comments on Projected "YES"
- This list is quickly shrinking as less spots are left. If Nordin / Metellus are grayshirts AND we get 2 decommits, 7 spots remain. If less grayshirts and/or less decommits than less spots of course.
- I've split the "YES" into 2 categories - one UM feels like a clear leader or flip candidate and then more foggy types.
- Mitchell has indicated a new yes is coming soon ("end of week").
- Gary visits in January and this battle goes down to the wire due to SEC teams involved but at this point he really seems like UM's to lose. Wiltfong says Ole Miss is probably top competition with Gary's friend and #2 overall player Greg Little committing this week.
- Davis comments post official to OSU were less than giddy - sounded like he did not get the attention he wanted and he seems less "all in on UM" vs what he once was. But at this point I still have him in the class. A few weeks ago Lorenz said UM would prefer a tackle (Delance) over a guard (Davis) but he changed that to either would work last week. Not sure if that means there is room for both or first come first serve. Maybe he should be in "less certainty" bucket after last visit.
- Allen was just offered and becomes an immediate projected yes as his best offer til 3 days ago was Minnesota. FSU offered yest in a fit of butt hurt and apparently his FG kicker from ig school is headed to FSU but... we'll go with yes.
- Hill and Corley announce together @ some point - most assume UM for Hill and MSU for Corley. Loss of Durkin seemed to sting Hill. MSU very involved here.
- Jones has had UM as a favorite seemingly as long as Davis; it appears to be down to UM vs ND and UM is putting a hard core press on him with multiple visits the past few weeks. 50/50 rigth now it seems.
- I have Nordin as a grayshirt - he seems destined in the class as he has now removed PSU commit from twitter and seemingly lives in Ann Arbor on weekends.
- Brown seems down to UM v Texas. Brown's dad seems to like UM. Not much visibility here, I am guessing on this one.
[hi Jessica]
Comments on Projected "Maybes / No"
- I've split the "No's" into various groups that are subjective. Some no's could be yes's of course. Focusing on most potentially yes guys at top.
- Delance visited last weekend and it seemed to go well - battle seems to be with Texas and LSU. No movement on crystal ballz in UM favor at this time.
- UM is putting a full court press on flipping Long from Stanford; still seems 50/50. Could be silent commit Ahmir hints at?
- Crawford is really quiet so impossible to read - the longer he does not commit to Oregon which is his dream school, I suppose better for UM. UM was out to visit in past week. Looks like he will be EE so we should know soon. I'd love if he was the silent commit Ahmir hints at? Lots of UM love on his twitter.
- Jackson looks to be a UM fav but Durkin loss may have hurt with him (even Bush said Durkin loss "hurt"). A lot of big players are still involved here.
- Fuller might be a dream but another candidate for Ahmir silent commit as he is from Jersey. That said OSU is the supposed leader. UM seems to be in his top 5.
- Murphy has scheduled a Jan visit. Not sure if DE is a top priority... if other players fall through maybe you go hard at him late?
- Onwuzurike has been a mystery - starting to see some crystal ballz to Washington on him. Will name a top 4 soon supposedly. If UM is in it obv that would be good.
- I don't know if Mathis belongs in this section or lower - UF has a very TE heavy offense and don't hear much in terms of him in relation to UM of late.
- Vicious Vic - per Webb it sounds like UM might go back to him late if other targets fall off but not til Jan.
- Nate Johnson may have taken Young's spot... or Young may be Ahmir's silent. Who knows right now.
- Hudson is also getting buzz as the Ahmir silent!
Of the rest of the "No"s
- To me Nauta wants to go to Georgia short of an ebola breakout hitting Athens. Every comment he makes leaves the door wide open to go to Georgia so I am quite pensive on any chance for UM here. We seem a clear second.
- Hardman per Webb disliked MI's weater - Webb said even if UM got Pruitt he'd be a difficult pull so he seems to be a dream at this point.
- No movement on Kelly since last update - for a high profile recruitment we supposedly have a decent chance on you don't hear much in UM's favor other than "under the table" stuff - all the ballz to OK.
- With Camp off the board due to weather, UM pressing on Daniels again but apparently he loves Oklahoma, and now says "distance matters" so seems like we are outside looking in there. Announces tomorrow.
- Jones was here for OSU game - seems to be trending to Oklahoma too.
They gone
- McCullouch named a top 5 that didnt include UM.
- McDoom committed to Oregon.
December 17th, 2015 at 8:59 PM ^
December 17th, 2015 at 9:10 PM ^
I hope you dont work in a skilled trade.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:03 PM ^
Bredeson is not going to be part of this class?
December 17th, 2015 at 9:09 PM ^
you lost me Mick. Nope I meant people >600 (i.e. 600 to 1000+) could be @ risk
December 17th, 2015 at 9:16 PM ^
You scared me there for a minute as he is our highest rated recruit thus far, thanks for the work my man!
December 21st, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^
The one that jumps out at me is that you have Terrence Davis in the class and not Jean Delance. Based on all the signs we have seen lately I would be inclined to go the other way. Davis was suppose to be a UM slam dunk for a while now, but he hasn't pulled the trigger. Historically, those type of situations end up with a recruit going elsewhere. Also, if a recruit even hints to anything other than a mindblowing experience, than you can read that as he wasn't at all thrilled by his experience and typiclally you can put that in the cateogory of a bad visit.
Delance on the other hand has been blasting the twitter-verse with all things Michigan. I would like to have both of them, but if I had to bet on which one we would land, i would go with Delance.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:13 PM ^
I think you're misreading the columns.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:19 PM ^
that's exactly what I did, thanks...have a rec on me
December 17th, 2015 at 9:03 PM ^
December 17th, 2015 at 9:09 PM ^
Its my opinion, could be wrong. But it follows the Stanford pattern where coach slows down communication to a trickle before they go away - plus this weekend's official... etc.
December 17th, 2015 at 10:08 PM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 3:23 PM ^
Is really classless. If you've moved on, at least be up front about it. Nobody would want their own kid treated that way.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:14 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 17th, 2015 at 9:20 PM ^
If ALL that happens Nauta will then say it's 50/50....but he is still looking into Georgia....
December 17th, 2015 at 9:28 PM ^
December 17th, 2015 at 9:32 PM ^
remember we have Ty Jr. who RS'd this season and Bunting and Butt and McKeon and maybe Allen, we'll be fine and these guys are gonna get coached up like no other!
December 17th, 2015 at 10:07 PM ^
December 17th, 2015 at 11:08 PM ^
December 17th, 2015 at 9:40 PM ^
Yes but you think like an adult - still dealing with 17 yr olds and hearts matter. Grow up in GA, grow up loving the school, hard to pull top guys from there. See all these top end OH kids.
December 17th, 2015 at 10:05 PM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 5:49 PM ^
One thing I don't get about Nauta is that he was initially committed to FSU. If he is so in love with Georgia, why did he commit to FSU?
Weird...
December 17th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^
hudson tweeted the UM bat signal earlier today...can't embed tweets with emojis.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^
is a very nice touch, when will she commit?
December 17th, 2015 at 9:31 PM ^
Pls note she headlines the "no" section....
December 17th, 2015 at 9:34 PM ^
you broke my heart Fredo!
December 17th, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^
December 17th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^
one can only recruit within the limits of a restraining order....or so my "friend" tells me.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:31 PM ^
Good stuff!
What position is Fuller most likely to play if he comes here?
December 17th, 2015 at 9:37 PM ^
OSU and rutgers (Ash) are recruiting him as a safety - I posted some stats on the "senior film" post for him today - had something like 6 INT and 3 TD returns on defense. We need athletes there and soon. In 1 year our safeties will be Ty Kinnel and Brian Cole and.... crickets.
Also I put DB next to Mitchell because in a tweet response to someone who was noting his defensive play on his hudl page they asked him if he would be a 2 way player at UM and he responded "That's the plan". So he might take the Brian Cole path and be a safety down the road? Brian also hinted that may be why we continue to recruit wrs.
We have a dearth of 2015 'choots on defense so not a shocker to see some offensive guys flip. Onwenu could be another.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^
could be a hell of a NT/DT, push people around all game.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:54 PM ^
I'll take a Woolfork-like player all day
December 17th, 2015 at 10:28 PM ^
He is poofing Belichek's shirt backward just by looking at him all meanly. Your average OL has no chance. Yet I am not sure he wins this if Coach engages. Classic Ki battle going on here.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:44 PM ^
Great work again Alum96. With Ian Bunting and Tyrone Wheatley Jr. among others, don't see TE as big position of need in this class, but still wonder if Nauta won't join us in the end. Georgia not even sure what QB they will have in their class, while we seem quite the exciting package.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:49 PM ^
Eason "re-commited" to GA (never decommited but rumors) earlier this week.
Even Ace has given up and sent Nauta to GA today in crystal balls.
I agree its not so urgent like so many other positions. (i.e. the whole defense ...and rb) We have a big pool of guys next 2 yrs and an opening for a great 2017 to come in and challenge and we'll have some lower rated guys in class to compete. Butt is the most important TE commit. A talented guy can come in 2017 and challenge for time fast like Funchess did.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:52 PM ^
BTW, is SD for San Diego? If so well hey neighborino!
December 17th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^
You are correct on both counts as usual San Diego Mick.
December 17th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^
There is a rumor Oregon (insider at 247) is full and dylan crawford is likely headed to Michigan
If you look at crawfords twitter there is all sorts of Michigan references and today being his last day at high school.
December 17th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^
Yes I have been warming to him as the silent past few hrs. Pinned Fisch to top of his page too... we'll know soon, if he is done with HS that means he has to register in Oregon or Michigan in next 10ish days.
Very long recruitment with him.
Oregon only has 2 wrs in the class though so I dont see how they could be full at the position for a team that lines up 4 wrs all the time.
Hudson seems like the other but only if coaches have him much higher of a prospect than recruiting guys.
December 17th, 2015 at 11:59 PM ^
They have 3, Tristen Wallace said when he flipped from OSU that he was going to Oregon to play WR. 247 probably lists him as an athlete because he can play WR or QB.
December 18th, 2015 at 5:57 AM ^
Ok thanks, saw he was a QB and with Oregon system I assume he was a dual threat guy.
December 18th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
Oregon is also in it with a bunch of California WR's(Cali WR class this year is ridiculous) and from what I understand Javon McKinley really likes them. May be a situation in which Crawford is getting slightly slow-played along with genuine indecision between M and the Ducks.
Also looking over Oregon's class and their projected weaknesses going forward(Defense and a weakened OL) I am wondering if they are starting to focus more on linemen and linebackers and allocating early entry slots away from the skill positions.
I could be wrong, but it's a thought.
December 18th, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^
Reading their msg board to try to get some intel on Crawford... he is not mentioned much - and they are frustrated they can't attract "real D linemen".
On the positive side we should have an answer either way soon on Crawford and can move in 1 direction or another.
December 17th, 2015 at 10:00 PM ^
Just to open up a position.
I think it's much more fair to assume Nordin will greyshirt which has been rumored that if a spot doesn't open up...that may be the case.
I'll assume we have 1 more decommit, not two.
That puts us at 22...
23. Gary
24. Allen (or Natua or Mathis if the stars align in our favor)
25. Davis OR Delance (don't think we get both)
26. Long or Hill (don't think we get both)
....I think this is pretty much a lock, IMO
27. This is where you can play around with the final spot...do we take Nordin on scholarship? Maybe we don't have anymore decommits? Maybe it goes to...
---Jones
---Jackson
---Fuller
---Murphy
---Young
---Vic
---Hudson
I like the idea of 7 guys vying for that 1 final spot. Our odds are pretty good if all 7 know we have 1 spot left that we get 1 of the 7.
December 17th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^
Only reason I chose him was I think they'd want all 3 Flanagan guys no matter what as a gesture of goodwill. So while I could see other low rated guys pushed away and he might normally go that way too.... they find a way to keep him in. But I am speculating off nothing but rumors for him in that regard.
December 17th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^
10-4. Understood.
FYI...if we signed the class on my list, that puts us around 281 on 247Sports (class calculator).
December 18th, 2015 at 12:05 AM ^
This is why I'm saying we're not a lock by any stretch to get that #1 class, even WITH Gary. We may not even be top 5 with him.
2010: 4th - 6th
2011: 5th
2012: 5th or 6th
2013: 6th or 7th (behind Michigan's class)
2014: 5th
2015: 7th
...we should be top 10 easily. But people need to temper the expectations if they think we're going to be top 3. Hell, maybe even top 5.
Note: 281 factors Nordin in as the 28th member to the class. It also assumes the decommit is Weaver - the lowest rated prosect in this class (who is said to be looking at Temple)
December 18th, 2015 at 5:43 AM ^
If you only take the top 20 kids to measure I think UM will finish 6th or 7th. We have a volume advantage with a huge class. Believe it or not even with Gary included the 2012 class had more top 200 players than this one.
Now if we finised with all the elite guys i.e. Long, Gary, Delance, Crawford, Jackson, Fuller it prob goes top 3-4.
I am not concerned about the specific spot - if you get a top 10 class you have the means to win conf and go to playoffs. UM has not had an issue with recruiting most of the past 50 years. It's been development - even Carr underachieved most of his time relative to talent getting in - and obv it fell off the rails with last 2 coaches.
Top 10 classes are sufficient to do what we want so any finish in that area is fine with me - #3 or #7 doesn't mean much at that point other than missing out on some Peppers clones. i.e. Auburn has two!! top 20 defensive ends in this class...something we need, a ferocious rush end.
December 18th, 2015 at 5:53 AM ^
a sad list of underachieving IMO by and large...but for comparison the "loaded" top end of the 2012 class at least by starz. We had 10 (!!!) of top 200 and only 1 player is tracking to be a top end NCAA guy and top 3-4 round NFL pick in Wormley. (current class has 6 such guys, 7 with Gary)
4 had little to no impact in 1st 3 yrs (Pipkins, Strobel, richardson, jenkins-stone)...Jenkins-Stone saved by new admin at least but 1 yr of impact is not what you need from guys like this. And guys like Kalis, Mags, and Bolden are at this point "just guys" you could find on Minnesota or Iowa State type rosters.
Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk |
OG | Kyle Kalis | 4 | 49 |
DT | Ondre Pipkins | 4 | 60 |
ILB | Joe Bolden | 4 | 75 |
OT | Erik Magnuson | 4 | 83 |
ILB | James Ross | 4 | 115 |
SDE | Chris Wormley | 4 | 128 |
OLB | Royce Jenkins-Stone | 4 | 139 |
CB | Terry Richardson | 4 | 140 |
WDE | Tom Strobel | 4 | 179 |
ATH | Dennis Norfleet | 4 | 194 |
December 18th, 2015 at 8:29 AM ^
I believe that one is headed by Shane Morris and a few guys who didn't pan out.
But you're right, once you're in the top 10, it's just about development and hitting on the highly recruited guys. Bama seems to do this more than anyone. So much that a Dee Hart not doing anything or a D'Shawn Hand not contributing as early as expected doesn't matter.
Hopefully we can join that trend.
This is where coaches who recruit to a system close the gap on the top classes. Because they typically hit on their recruiting classes more than some of those top programs (i.e. Michigan).
I like I was I saw from 2014 and 2015, Harbaugh's bringing those guys along well. This 2016 class is crucial, especially at the positions we always talk about like LB. If Devin Bush is an All-B1G LB by his SO. year, then we're in serious business.
I realize everyone can't have Peppers' impact in terms of usage. But we need to find more young talent like that who contribute at a high level, even if it's just at one position, right away.
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