MLive piece on Duncan Robinson
Solid article. I feel like Duncan is a player that we don't really hear much from, so it's nice to see something about him.
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Maybe, but at the same time if he were a bad player he wouldn't have been so successful in DIII.
I think his success indicates that he was either massively underrecruited or he just made a big improvement in his first year after high school.
In any case, it seems that the floor for Duncan should be higher than it is for many high school recruits. (Maybe the ceiling is lower though)
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So by your logic, any kid that does a year at prep school should also be considered under a kid that comes out after his senior year and kids transferring in from a low-level college? Seem logical to you?
August 5th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^
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August 5th, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
August 5th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
did he get?
Look, I think Robinson can be a good fit here and I can actually see him getting time over guys like Chatman and Moritz due to that fit, but let's not act like there isn't some reason for concern about a guy making the leap from DIII to the high majors.
August 5th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
August 18th, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^
There's been numerous guys make the leap from DIII to the NBA. I don't think DIII to DI will be that much of a culture shock. He's been seeing those players in practice for over a year now.
August 5th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
Beilein is no dummy, he nabbed him for a reason. This is a classic trust in Beilien situation. Not that he will be a star, but at minimum a very useful piece off the bench and a guy other teams will hate for being the "white guy draining wide open 3's in the corner".
August 5th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
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August 5th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
True and I think there is some upside in Beileins system. My read on Robinson is that he was a naturally good, smart and skilled bball player, though kinda small in HS then became really gangly as he grew up. He seems like he's growing into his frame now and filling out. With his passing, shooting ability, height and positiional flexibility there's no reason he can't be a poor man's Doug McDermot in a year or two. He'll be a very good college player. He already showed we can thrive in Beilein style offense. Like Dougie Mcbuckets his defense and rebounding may be suspect.
August 5th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
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August 5th, 2015 at 12:57 PM ^
Obviously, D3 is a higher level of ball than HS, so Robinson is far more proven than most incoming recruits. His floor is Matt Vogrich and his ceiling is north of Jon Diebler -- not exactly taking a flier on 2-3 stars like MAAR, Dawkins, Albrecht, LeVert, Novak, Douglass. THOSE are classic 'trust' moments.
August 5th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^
August 5th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
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August 5th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^
The difference is Robinson has already played a year in college ball under a former Beilein assistant. He knows the offensive system. Granted it was lower competition but he domintated it. He also just had the beneift of a redshirt year to get stronger and practice with the team all year. His first year at Michigan is drastically different than the true freshman years of the guys you mentioned. Not trying to raise expectations too high, but I expect a bigger contribution than Chapman and Wilsons first year and probably something comparable or better than Caris or Irvins first years. Depends on the development of a few other guys too.
August 5th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
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The Nik comparisons are insane. Vogrich is closer to the mark (though I think and expect him to be much better, more like Diebler.)
Robinson should be a very valuable piece to Michigan but the athleticism questions aren't going to magically disappear. "Just a shooter" - probably...but we'll see.
Great article. Enjoy Brendan Quinn's writing while you can. I'm sure some other paper is going to snatch him up soon. Pretty lucky to have such a great hoops writer.
I also expect him to be better than expected !
Also ...if he makes a difficult shot I will declare it ...Unbelievable
/s
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to dust off the 'Not Just A Shooter' trademark?
Maybe not. From the sounds of things, he's more Jon Diebler than Nik Stauskas.
Doubtful, but here's hoping.........
Still, always good to have a reliable sniper.
August 5th, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^
Anyone that can shoot it like Stauskas (regardless of other skills) is a welcome addition.
After a year on the sideline, Robinson admits to having some reoccurring dreams about what his next college debut will be like. He says he's still trying to prove himself and can't help but feel like he's carrying a mythical torch for all those Division III players who never got that D-I offer.
I do wonder sometimes just how many people get overlooked in basketball recruiting, how many find themselves at smaller schools like this when they could theoretically hang with players at higher levels of competition. Hopefully, Robinson shows us that it happened at least once - very excited to see what he can do.
August 5th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
There are far more layers of sifting to go through for basketball recruiting than football. There are not many kids that are missed by the time you get to the D3 level.
A basic filtering list would be:
D1 elite schools (Duke, UNC, Kentucky,etc)
D1 schools in power conferences (Iowa, Minnesota, Auburn, etc)
D1 schools in non-power conferences (Georgetown, Xavier, SMU, Marquette, Gonzaga, UNLV, etc)
D1 schools in the next tier down (Wichita State, Bradley, Creighton, BYU, etc)
D1 schools in name only (Coppin St, Harvard, Penn, Murray St, etc)
D2
D3
There are over 300 D1 basketball programs vs. @ 120 D1 football programs. Pet capita that is a lot more full scholarships being handed out.
August 5th, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^
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There really aren't more basketball scholarships being handed out at all. 300 * 13 = 3900 scholarships. 120 *85 = 10,200. Even if you include D2 schools it doesn't come close to matching the number of football scholarships (since you could then include FCS schools before getting to D2 for football)
I used the wrong term becuase I was supposed to be paying attention in a meeting. I was not trying to compare absolute number of scholarships, that 's why I used the incorrect term of per capita. The easy math (as you pointed out) shows that not to be true.
What is true, and was my intended point: as a percentage (number of potential scholarships per school) there are more opportunities for an athlete to earn a full ride D1 scholarship in basketball than there is in football.
Last semester I saw Duncan as I was walking home late at night on East University. As he was stuffing his face with an ice cream cone, I drunkenly told him, "Duncan Robinson! Good luck next year." He just raised his ice cream cone to me. Thus, if he has a breakout year, it's because of me.
It'll be because of the ice cream. Lifting that kind of freight is just the right work-out regime for a sharp-shooting wing in the Beilein offense.
Our forwards are going to be able to shoot really, really well. Now let's see if they can play defense...
Excuse to post this video
PS Robinson loves Pizza House. I've seen him there more than a few times
August 5th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^
For starters, I don't think even the most optimistic of us fans is expecting Robinson to be a star. I think we're expecting him to be a rotation player either this year or next and exceed normal expectations for a DIII transfer.
The reason I fall on the optimistic side is because his skill (elite shooting ability) translates to all levels of basketball and he combines that with height. This isn't Robby Ried who was 6-foot tall and a good shooter but struggled at the D1 level. This is a 6'8" guy who can flat out shoot. If he were dominating DIII with his cross-over move and ball handling then I'd be skeptical. But I am confident that Beilein can find a role for a 6'8" guy that can shoot, even if it is limited.
I also believe that dominating DIII is more impressive than dominating a random high school, though clearly there were flaws in his game or his recruitment that limited his offers. The other significant advantage that I think he has is that he's walking in as an upper classmen already, despite the amount of eligibility he has left. He spent a year at DIII dominating, then he spent a year practicing in Beilein's system and with a weight training program, and now he walks in understanding the system and already physically more prepared that any high school player.
My prediction is that there will be a total dog fight for minutes at PF between Dawkins, Robinson, Chatman, and Wagner that will vary game to game all year. If anything, Robinson has a clear path to playing time because he has a clearly defined skill/role and far more experience. Wagner is skinny and still raw as a prospect. Chatman's struggles were well documented. Dawkins is clearly a rotation player, but not an ideal fit at PF.
August 5th, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^
We are really going to see a lot of different rotations and lineups the first few months of the season. I am definitely excited to see who chisels out permanent roles come conference play; it is going to be a fun year.
August 5th, 2015 at 11:20 AM ^
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but some people who are 6'8 and can shoot lights out are simply not athletic enough to see playing time at elite D1 programs.
For example, Doug McDermott, who can not only shoot but is a gifted all-around scorer hasn't yet seen significant playing time in the NBA due to athleticism (just a rookie still, but you get the point). Rashard Lewis could still nail 3s but when he got old and creaky he became unplayable. Mike Miller - ditto. You see it again again. In other words, you still have to play defense. We'll see about Robinson...I'm optimistic.
Great points about him being a relative veteran and more experienced than many of his teammates.
Robinson isn't an ideal fit at the 4. Sure he's 6'9 but he's also only 210 pounds and his athleticim is the reason why he wasn't a D1 kid in the first place. I see Robinson as being limited to the '3' spot and being used situationly because of defense issues.
Dawkins is clearly ahead of him in my mind. He's a bit shorter but around the same weight and more athletic and already has experience playing the Beilein 4. The dogfight will be with Chatman, MAAR, Wagner, etc. for the rest of the wing minutes. Given that they all have different skillsets it may depend on team need or in-game circumstance. Can't wait to see how it plays out...
August 6th, 2015 at 12:23 AM ^
It very rarely happens, so there aren't any "normal" expectations. I've never seen a wider range of opinions regarding an incoming player.
I expect him to be pretty good. Beilein took him fairly early in the recruiting process, exactly one year ago, when some highly rated prospects were still interested. He's not a late pickup he was taking a flyer on.
August 5th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
Robinson is one of those real wild card players to me this season. He could be either a significant contributor, or do basically nothing. It's just too hard to guess until we see him on the court against good competition. I'm guessing he will contribute more than Wagner though since he's older and has been with the program for the last year. If Robinson can be a consistent, reliable scorer off the bench this season, that would be a big boost for the team.
August 5th, 2015 at 12:11 PM ^
August 5th, 2015 at 10:56 PM ^
He looks like a very good player and is intelligent (on the court and in the classroom). He is motivated and has worked for this chance.
He is a knock down shooter that will a great asset for us.