SEARCHBITS XVI: GO TIME
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I KNOW IT'S OVER AND OH IT NEVER REALLY BEGAN EXCEPT FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME APPEARANCES BUT IN MY HEART IT WAS SO REAL. San Francisco is eliminated from the playoffs. (Thanks, Lions!) This should accelerate everyone's decision-making process. Harbaugh is now going to consider his future in earnest; Michigan will enter with their bag with "$$$" on the side and hope to woo the fair maiden.
I've heard that both Harbaugh and the 49ers will start moving now. While official announcements may wait until after the season, the process of making a decision starts in earnest now.
This time there will be no coy crap, no hedging on the part of the athletic director about how much control Harbaugh will have or how much film he gets to watch. (Academics are the one area in which Harbaugh will have to compromise somewhat, as the AD does not have control over Michigan's willingness to admit JUCOs. The guy made it work at Stanford; Michigan is way less hardcore than Stanford.) Michigan will approach Harbaugh with an offer competitive with the NFL and the promise that at no point will he be forced to apologize for one of his players putting a piece of metal in the ground.
If he doesn't end up coming, at least we'll know that Michigan did everything they could this time.
ON LES MILES. I have to make an about-face here. Just yesterday I said that Miles had seemingly found himself on the shortlist after years in the wilderness. Another day's worth of information and I don't know that's true. Michigan made basic contact with Miles (or, in one version of the story, his agent finally got through to someone after calling repeatedly) and that's as far as anything went.
Depending on who you talk to, he's either a prominent non-Harbaugh viable option or far enough down the list to be irrelevant—ie, behind a guy who would obviously take the job. It sounds like a lot is being made of not much contact. There is a large group of guys close to the program who advocate for him, and I think that's where that's coming from.
Still, the next two bullets mean he's in play.
OFF THE BOARD. OSU OC Tom Herman takes the Houston job. I had just heard the first reliable thing that Michigan was looking at him as a plan B option and now he's (almost certainly) not one of those. I am distressed, because I'm with Bruce Feldman:
If I was a #Houston fan I'd be thrilled. I think Tom Herman is as close to a 'Can't Miss' as you're gonna find in a first-time head coach.
— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) December 15, 2014
On the positive side, OSU no longer has the guy.
MEANWHILE, PLAN B. It's not hard to see things falling through to Miles if Harbaugh doesn't take the job. There is no consensus on who secondary options are. Scout keeps pushing Jim Mora; Rivals keeps pushing Bob Stoops. I've heard both. The problem there is that neither is in a bad spot; either could be mentioned largely because agents are trying to get an extension for their clients (Mora) or make their guy look attractive after a crappy season (Stoops). People high up in the university admin think that the reported Stoops interest is indeed an agent play.
If neither of those guys makes a move, the next best idea the paysites seem to have is Sean Payton. As discussed, I will believe that is even a vague possibility if Payton is fired by the Saints and only then. The prominence of a sitting NFL coach with an $8 million contract on the plan B list is a bit alarming. To me that means "we do not have enough reasonable names to fill out a plan B list."
If Michigan refuses to consider Dan Mullen and Herman is off the board, then after they get through their list of debatably available sitting head coaches who's left?
That's some good pointing at least.
ON DAN MULLEN. There has been absolutely nothing about him anywhere, from my inbox to the paysites to randos on twitter who seem to have a connect. Nothing. The only chatter anyone's gotten is that Mullen is off the radar after Michigan called up Jeremy Foley and Foley bombed him.
Broken record time: that's a major mistake. At this point, Jeremy Foley's hired a blindingly obvious Urban Meyer, Ron Zook, and Will Muschamp. He drew every media member within a 500 mile radius to his contract negotiations, like the world's most wizened sixty-foot tall bug zapper. If he has opinions, Michigan should take those into consideration.
It's possible he'll emerge if Michigan gets shot down by the currently mentioned Plan B guys—coaching searches are weird like that—but that's if and only if Miles is truly unpalatable to the key players. Which he might be, for reasons both valid and not.
ON LOU HOLTZ. COULD HE BE PLAN B? Probably not. According to a reader, Holtz doesn't think it's going to happen. He cites the "wife loves the West Coast" issue, so take it FWIW. While wearing a raincoat, in possession of scuba gear. Preferably.
I WOULD CHORTLE. Please please please:
Definite name to watch with 49ers >> RT @MoveTheSticks Brian Kelly RT @houtexmajorin: if any college HC jumps to NFL who is it
— Tim Kawakami (@timkawakami) December 15, 2014
Not only would that be hilarious, it would open up a number of Notre Dame commits to poaching in a situation where Michigan is going to need to make some fast friends.
Etc.: Kawakami on how the 49ers management undermined their season.
December 15th, 2014 at 6:01 PM ^
Oklahoma was equally bad as, if not worse than, UCLA circa 2011 when Stoops took over. The 1990s were kind of a lost decade for OU, with Gary Gibbs, Schnellenberger, and John Blake (who would go on to be one of the real bad guys in the series of UNC scandals) combining to be just over .500 during the decade. Just before Stoops took over, Blake had gone 12-22 in the previous three years.
Stoops has done it over the long haul but he also turned things around almost immediately. Stoops took Blake's players and went 7-5 then 13-0 in his first two years.
So Stoops's reclamation project at Oklahoma even more impressive than what Mora's done at UCLA (which is impressive in its own right).
December 16th, 2014 at 9:09 AM ^
Note that I said "(Not that Joe Blake was great sauce for Oklahoma, but Stoops has had years to right that ship while Mora has not been at UCLA nearly as long)". So I'm familiar (and impressed) with Stoops's record.
But once Stoops righted the ship, he was able to compile a better winning percentage in the subsequent years. Mora's not there yet, but it looks as though he'll be able to do that if he stays at UCLA.
Like I noted above, I'll be happy with either option. And I'd be happiest with Harbaugh, warts and all.
December 16th, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^
Ah, I misunderstood "Oklahoma has been a great program for years" as referring to the years prior to Stoops, ie, downplaying the Stoops turnaround, not as referrring to the longevity of Stoops' success.
And no, now that I'm no longer misunderstanding, we're not disagreeing at all.
And yes, Mora > Stoops > Harbaugh is the proper order, with all being total coups should they come to M.
December 16th, 2014 at 5:01 AM ^
Jim Mora, the guy who didn't understand the NFL playoff rules and had to call someone to have them explained to him on a cellphone in the middle of a game, was famous for using smelling salts to keep himself awake on the sidelines during the game while coach of the Falcons and was so entrenched at his job that he told Seattle radio that he'd quit mid playoff run to take the job at UW, was a decent NFL coach?
Jim Mora, who was fired after one season in Seattle?
The UCLA job is a difficult one for a lot of reasons, so I'm glad he's found success there. I can understand why he'd want a promotion/raise or another job. But let's not characterize his NFL years as something they weren't.
December 16th, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^
He was 26-22 for the Falcons, then had a bad one season tour at Seattle at 5-11 (marred by an ill-advised statement on a radio program that the University of Washington position would be a dream job or some such). Made it to the NFC Championship Game his first season with the Falcons. So I would characterize those NFL years as decent. Not Vince Lombardi stuff, but decent. In a league where you have precious few gimme games, as opposed to college.*
I'd be happy with Mora, you'd be stocking up on smelling salts and canned goods. I'd point to the NFC Championship Game, you'd point to the season at Seattle. But I think most NFL observers would say that overall he was a decent coach, with somewhat more success than the average coach.
This is all a matter of opinion, of course. But it's ridiculous to imply that calling Mora a "decent" NFL coach is a gross mischaracterization.
Also, Harbaugh.
*Granted, Michigan had only one gimme game all season. But most major schools have 3-5 gimmes a season. It's hard, with parity, to similarly inflate your record in the NFL.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^
Not sure why Foley gets negged for the initial hiring of Muschamp. It obviously didn't work out but at the time it was a huge get for Florida. Muschamp was one of the hottest names out there and was lined up to be the next head coach at Texas. At the time of the Muschamp hire most people thought Foley had pulled one out of his hat.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 1:04 PM ^
Brian,
Do you KNOW that Michigan tried to get Harbaugh last time and made a half-hearted effort or do you THINK that's what happenned?
December 15th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^
Unless we hit Plan C, we are going to be fine.
We all obvioiulsy want Harbaugh, but Hackett really needs to be careful to try and create the proper narrative just in case we don't land Harbaugh.
The reality is, we are looking for an upgrade from Hoke. So the question SHOULD be "Is this new guy a clear upgrade from Hoke?" If we get a solid Plan B guy, then the answer should still be a YES and the search should be deemed a success.
Unfortunately though, too much of the fanbase is looking for a savior-type of moment for the program, and the spin on this search is starting to be simply "Did we get Harbaugh?"
I want Harbaugh as much as anybody, but we do need to keep the eye on the ball here. Our program has issues. No one person--be it a 5 star recruit or an an awesome coach--will be the single reason the program turns around. If we land one of the Plan B guys, get a few sharp coordinators and position coaches, and don't suffer too much from a recruiting fall-off or exedous, then we should be just fine.
But those expectations and that narrative need to be managed by Hackett. So if I were him, barring a promise of confidentiality, if I heard Harbaugh was not coming, I'd start leaking that right away to deflate the fanbase, let them get over it, and then float the name of the (hopefully solid) Plan B coach that will get hired. Because if we all learn that Harbaugh is not the guy a the same moment that we learn who our new coach is, the story will be "Dammit, no Harbaugh" rather than optimism about the new coach.
The test here is past reality (Hoke) versus future reality (new coach), not hypothetical future coach (Harbaugh) vs. actual future coach (Plan B coach if Harbaugh falls through).
In my view, all the Plan B coaches (and obviously Plan A Harbaugh) are an upgrade from Hoke. So barring a complete cataclysm, the program will be moving in the right direction. The only question is how fast and by what degree.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^
Quite frankly, I think we'd be fine with Plan X or Y with this logic.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:56 PM ^
"The test here is past reality (Hoke) versus future reality (new coach)."
By this logic, if Coach Hoke was, say, a 2 on a scale of 1-10 for on-field results, we'd consider the search a success if we found a coach who is a 3 out of 10 for on-field results.
That does not sound quite right. With due respect for Coach Hoke, I don't think the program should look to his tenure as a benchmark to measure success.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
I actually don't think there is a lot of pressure on the AD to land Harbaugh. Of course, there are the die-hards who have been tuned in and eating up every bit of info out there, but most people I talk to do not have any expectation of getting Harbaugh. I hear Stoops more than I hear Harbaugh when I'm talking with less obsessed fans. I also hear the doom and gloom of another botched search that seems to be a growing and trendy story.
My friends who come to me for an update or to hear my opinion are not even hopeful of a Harbaugh surprise.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
The national media has helped in this regard. It's amazing to me how little they have been beating the drum of Harbaugh-to-Michigan speculation. It will make them all look even more foolish than usual if he comes home!
December 15th, 2014 at 2:35 PM ^
Agree with dg62
With all due respect to Hoke, if our bar is "find someone better than Hoke" it is not much of a search. Our coaching search needs to end and begin with finding someone to battle Urban on an even playing field. A coach that will go 4-6 to 6-4 over 10 years with Urban. A coach who will go 7-3 vs Dantonio over those 10 years.
You can upgrade from Hoke and go 2-8 v Urban. That's not a measuring stick.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
I thought he would have been a decent option. If anyone asked me (which they certainly wouldn't, but still) I would have gone: Harbaugh, Stoops, Mullin, Herman, Miles then Mora. I would be ecstatic with any of them but that would be the order in which I would select them.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:26 PM ^
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but why on God's green earth would you have an OC with no HC experience higher than anybody on that list?
December 15th, 2014 at 1:29 PM ^
Now you know why no one asked you... you have Herman ahead of Miles...
There is ZERO rationale behind that opinion.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^
You may not like his opinion, but stating that there is "ZERO rationale" for his opinion goes way too far. Brian has provided plenty of reasons (see the last installment of "This Week's Obsession") why Miles might be a bad choice for Michigan.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^
Can you think of any rationale for Herman over Miles? That was the part that was irrational.
I stand by the fact that no one outside of 20% of this blog or people inside the athletic department who are butt-hurt over something Miles did would consider him a "bad choice."
"Bad choice" can be reserved for Schiano.
December 15th, 2014 at 3:08 PM ^
Miles doesn't fit the criteria Hackett laid out during his press conference of putting character first. He's apparently done some shady stuff, and I'm not talking about something that may or may not have happened with someone's wife 25 years ago.
At LSU Miles has relied on oversigning and the ready availability of southern talent in his backyard, neither of which he would have here.
Miles' offenses suck. Herman appears to be a great offensive mind who can develop QBs and can also recruit.
Miles is at an age where most coaches start to lose effectiveness. That may already be reflected in the past couple years at LSU.
While you may disagree with people at Michigan not wanting Miles, the fact that they exist means we risk having a house divided, as during the RR years.
Obviously, most of that was about drawbacks of Miles as opposed to pro's for Herman. But it is certainly possible for someone to rationally conclude that Miles is too risky to hire, and that we need to instead move down the list and look at other good options, which could include Herman. I hope none of this matters because of course we are getting Harbaugh!
December 15th, 2014 at 5:24 PM ^
Can you point out the "loss of effectiveness... the last couple years"
| 2010 | Louisiana State | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | .846 | 15.13 | 4.67 | 21 | 5 | 8 | Cotton Bowl-W | |
| 2011 | Louisiana State | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | .929 | 24.27 | 6.27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | BCS Championship-L | |
| 2012 | Louisiana State | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | .769 | 14.76 | 5.45 | 3 | 2 | 14 | Chick-fil-A Bowl-L | |
| 2013 | Louisiana State | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | .769 | 14.59 | 4.28 | 12 | 6 | 14 | Outback Bowl-W | |
| 2014 | Louisiana State | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | .667 | 12.05 | 6.30 | 13 | 8 |
LSU is ranked in the top 10 every season. Saban is 2 years older than Miles, I guess we should send everyone out to pasture at 61. They each have 5-10 really good years left.
Herman would have been a HUGE reach by UM.
It would just reek of desperation in trying to take something away from OSU.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:10 PM ^
6 losses in 3 years 2010-12. 7, maybe 8 (all right, they probably beat Minn, so 7) in 2 years 2013-14. A lot of the LSU fan base is sick of the guy and wants him gone.
Wait, wait, you'll say we'd kill for that kind of production against SEC opponents? But you can't simply assume that would transfer with him when he can't bring the oversigning and Louisiana talent base with him. Plus, he would have the same problem RR did in facing opposition.
I would certainly prefer to see Herman have some success at a lower level program as a head coach (say, maybe Houston?) before hiring him for Michigan. He would have been a high ceiling, low floor hire for us. Risky? Yes. I'd have gone through a few names before getting to his -- Harbaugh, Stoops, Richt, Mora, Mullen, maybe others.
December 16th, 2014 at 6:42 AM ^
Last time I checked you are allowed to cross state borders for recruiting, LSU has been immensly more successful than MSU and you still think Mullen is a better coach.
The state of Michigan produces a lot of college and NFL talent (Mark Ingram comes to mind). If Les Miles locked down the Michigan border like he does the state of Louisiana that would be a huge upgrade in and of itself.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:31 PM ^
so did Brian and yet you're presumably interested in his opinion?
December 15th, 2014 at 2:37 PM ^
I'm interested in everyone's opinion (that's why I am on a blog). It doesn't make that opinion rational, no matter who holds it.
A co-offensive coordinator in a system that has never failed no matter who has ran it with zero head coaching experience vs. one of the 5 best head coaches (despite playing in the toughest division in college football) of the last 15 years, isn't even a contest. LSU has been ranked in the top 10 (at some point) every season that Miles has been a coach there.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^
evaporated pretty quickly over the last 7 to 10 days.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^
was he ever really a serious candidate outside of some internet postings? The guy has spent the last 15+ years in the NFL. He's won a Super Bowl and the Ravens are a pretty solid organization. Outside of some rumblings with the Ray Rice incident Harbaugh seems to get along with Ozzie and the Ravens front office pretty well.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^
I think the only real talk about John Harbaugh centered around some anger or resentment over the way the Ravens handled the Ray Rice situation. If there was a lot of organizational fallout and John wanted to jump ship there was a small chance he could end up at Michigan. But with all the Rice stuff behind them the John talk has fallen away as well.
Just one mans opinion though.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^
reluctance of Miles as a plan B? I know he's up there in age, but could still go 5-10 years. Has a MNC, wins consistently in one of, if not the, toughest divisions in college football. Even if he can't oversign, he's a good coach and a good recruiter. I'd be happy to have him as plan B.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:21 PM ^
shady off-the-field and has a bad track record when it comees to QB development.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^
He developed Russell into the #1 overall pick, and turned Mettenberger from a dumpster fire to a guy who started a few NFL games as a rookie. Here is Mettenberger from Jr to Sr year.
| *2012 | Louisiana State | SEC | JR | QB | 13 | 207 | 352 | 58.8 | 2609 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 12 | 7 | 128.3 |
| *2013 | Louisiana State | SEC | SR | QB | 12 | 192 | 296 | 64.9 | 3082 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 22 | 8 | 171.4 |
Pretty solid development there, LSU isn't built around QB play anyways it was built around defense and running the ball (did you see Jeremy Hill yesterday?).
December 15th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^
Not a fan of democracy?? (Kidding)
December 15th, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^
Since we may not have a good QB. Sign him, after Jim says no thanks.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^
they all underperformed relative to the recruiting rankings.
Nick Saban recruited Russell and Miles wasn't there for two years when he was at LSU. I don't count JaMarcus on Miles. It's a mix between Saban and Miles.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^
He played for Miles his Jr and Sr years, in which he developed all of his NFL stock after his senior year.
The comment was about development not recruiting.
Besides, no one doubts that Les Miles can recruit as well as anyone.
Nick Saban doesn't churn out star NFL QB's either.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:21 PM ^
On the bright side, all these good Plan B options will give us plenty of "What if [so and so] had come instead of Harbaugh" options if Harbaugh isn't the savior we think he'll be.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
Harbaugh is making about $5 mil/year with SF. Payton and Carroll are the highest paid NFL coaches at $8 mil/year, w/Belichick just a notch below at $7.5 mil. Presumably, any NFL team that wants to take a run at Harbaugh not only needs to offer him some degree of personnel control (if not a dual coach/GM job), but also money somewhere close to those guys (who probably deserve a little more than JH, since they've won Super Bowls). And knowing crazy billionaire NFL owners, someone will probably offer him more, say, $8 million.
Meanwhile, the top 5 in college looks something like this (http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/):
Saban: ~ $7.1 million; Dantonio: ~$5.6 mil; Stoops, Sumlin, Strong - all ~ $5 mil; Then you have Urban Meyer at $4.5 and Miles just a shade below that.
I can't imagine Harbaugh -- who's got NFL experience and took his team to three straight conference title games and a Super Bowl -- would accept not being the highest-paid coach in his own conference, but I'm also not sure Michigan can pay him more than Saban. So we're looking at something like $6 to $6.5 million. Is that enough to convince him to leave the NFL? I sure as hell hope so.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^
Dantonio's yearly salary isn't actually that high. He made a higher figure last year due to performance bonuses, etc.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^
We absolutely can afford to pay $8 million if we wanted to. I don't think that should be our initial offer of course, but if it takes 6.5 or 7 to get Harbaugh, you do it. The 1 or 2 million dollar difference can easily be surpassed by donations and PSD's and season tickets and merchandise and all the other stuff if you get Harbaugh, maybe even Miles. If you go to Mora Jr or someone else and you're paying $4 million anyway, then just bump it up and get your guy and watch the money come rolling right back in.
December 15th, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^
I've been trying to find the article for about 10 minutes and have yet to be successful, but wasn't there a WSJ or Forbes article a year or two ago basically breaking down (in simple terms) the financials of Alabama and Nick Saban's contract(s). I seem to remember the AD basically saying that paying Nick Saban (essentially) whatever he wants was, is and likely will continue to be a great business and football decision for Alabama. I seem to remember the article or someone else stating that paying Saban a hypothetical $12-15 million would still be a good "business" decision because of the increased ticket prices, demand, donations, university applications, etc. due to the football team's success?
Am I crazy? Does anyone else remember this? Can anyone else find the article?
December 15th, 2014 at 2:43 PM ^
Brian said in a searchbits Harbaugh wanted to be paid "top 5" in the NCAA. That puts him around $5M which is a WASH with his current salary. A year ago at this time Saban was at $5.4M - he just got a raise befitting a man who has 3 NCs in 4 years or whatever absurd thing he is doing.
Dantonio was paid $2M a year until he got a 80%+ raise last year (woefully underpaid for what he accomplished) - and then he got a stay bonus. Even with his raise to $3.6M he is basically getting less than Hoke was.
Bielemna was $5.4M a year ago with bonus money as well.
I think they'd offer a raise to the NFL salary he had and make him the 2nd highest paid coach in the NCAA at or near $6M annually. If he goes and wins a few NCs I am sure we'd gladly give him more than Saban.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^
The irony of all ironies for M fans in the Atlanta area would be for Arthur Blank to poach Harbaugh (Mike Smith really is Brady Hoke at the NFL level) and for Jim Mora to end up in Ann Arbor.
I would probably need to resign my registration on this site if that happened.
December 15th, 2014 at 4:23 PM ^
I think that's the time period when Michael Vick was knicknamed "coach killer" but before the dog fighting stuff. Over time it's proven quite accurate as every coach in the pro's he has played for has been fired. The only one remaining is Rex and it's only a matter of time until the sand runs out of that hourglass.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:29 PM ^
and we have two weeks to close the deal with Harbaugh before any NFL teams get to start talking to him, then if we don't hear something solid by Christmas, I guess I'll be nervous. I'm not sure silence through Dec. 28 is good for us.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^
It may be because of how the past few searches went but humor me.
I realize the search is being handled differently now but would the Michigan job be of such a great interest outsdie of Miles? Certainly money can persuade coaches but to leave the SEC (Mullen) or west coast (Mora) would Michigan, in its current state, be enough to draw after we obviously spent so much time and effort on Harbaugh?
Super extra not trolling. Nerves are getting to me and they frown upon drinking at work.
December 15th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^
So this situation being wrapped up shortly means what exactly? Will we unofficially know that Harbaugh will or will not be our coach in a few days?
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