USA 2018: Attackers Comment Count

Brian

This three part series and then we're done for four years, haterz. This three part series: projecting the USA's 2018 roster. All sections ordered by likelihood of inclusion.

WHO'S GONE

The USA's single outfield player older than 32 since 2002 was Brian McBride in 2006, who was a starter at 34. That should eliminate Brad Davis, Chris Wondolowski, Jermaine Jones, Kyle Beckerman, DaMarcus Beasley, and Clint Dempsey, along with various others in the player pool (Gomez, Donovan, etc) who didn't make the 23.

In addition, Tim Howard will be 39 in 2018. It's not unheard of for a goalie to make it that long, but with the US in possession of Brad Guzan it seems likely Howard will retire internationally, as will Nick Rimando.

Then there are three guys in the age danger zone: Bedoya and Zusi were already weak points at 27. If they're on the roster in 2018 the US will not have progressed as far as we want them to. Cameron will be 32, obviously workable but less than ideal.

There is some chance one or two of the old guys hangs on. Dempsey is the most likely, as there seems to be an obvious we-need-a-goal sub role for him. Beasley, amazingly, would be next since left back is a bitch to fill and he may be immortal.

That leaves the US with approximately 10 spots to fill, 8 of them outfield players.

ASSUMPTIONS

  1. The US plays a four-man backline.
  2. Michael Bradley returns to a defensive mid role, because he can't cover as much ground at 30 and the shape of the player pool changes pretty dramatically this cycle.
  3. The end result is either a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1.
  4. There is a kid no one's ever heard of who will be on the team.

FORWARD

JOZY ALTIDORE – Sunderland (England) - 28 in 2018 – 71 caps

jozy-altidore[1]

Jozy's obvious. Hopefully he'll get away from the crap end of English football to someplace where the ball comes to him every once in a while.

TERRENCE BOYD – RB Leipzig (Germany 2nd) – 27 in 2018 – 13 caps

Assuming that the US does go with a single central striker most of the time, Klinsmann won't make the same mistake he made in this cycle by leaving without a like for like replacement for his starter. The 6'2" Boyd is capable target forward coming off scoring nearly a goal every two games in the Austrian league who's just transferred back to Germany. While the fact that he's in the 2.Bundesliga is a bit of a disappointment, RB Leipzig is ripping up the divisions after Red Bull purchased them and gave their director a pile of money to rip up the divisions. By 2018 they very well could be a Bundesliga club.

Anyway, Boyd's the most like-for-like guy on the US radar right now, and as a bonus he's pretty good.

JUAN AGUDELO – free agent – 25 in 2018 – 18 caps

Juan Agudelo (9) of the United States is interviewed after the game. The United States (USA) and Argentina (ARG) played to a 1-1 tie during an international friendly at the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, on March 26, 2011.

Agudelo's in a bit of limbo at the moment since he couldn't get eligible for his club. England restricts non-EU players to exceptional talents. If you've got some percentage of your international team's recent caps they'll let you in, and they'll also make exceptions for particularly young players who have broken through. (Players like Marc Pelosi avoid this process thanks to possession of an EU passport.) Stoke thought Agudelo counted; the board has said no twice. He was forced to play in Holland on loan as a result.

That and ill-timed injuries (he was supposed to be on the 2013 Gold Cup squad) have seen him drop out of the national team picture. He's too talented to remain out of it. His 14 appearances for Utrecht saw him collect three goals and three assists for a relegation-threatened club in desperate need of offense. As of late May he was supposed to be joining Bundesliga outfit Hannover 96.

------------this line demarks the sadness of being left out---------------

ARON JOHANNSSON – AZ Alkmaar (Holland) – 27 in 2018

It's 50/50 whether Johannsson gets on the next roster after only being deployed against Ghana, and then passed over for one of the USA's marginal wing midfielders. Has been bagging goals in Holland, but that's just what happens in Holland.

GYASI ZARDES – LA Galaxy – 26 in 2018 – 0 caps

Despite a late debut as a pro after a four-year career at UCSB that in fact featured a redshirt(!), Zardes has impressed with a combination of size and speed at LA Galaxy. He may be a prime example of a guy who the US development system hurt,  but looking through the pool for Lukaku types who can change a game by being large and mean and fast and you land on Zardes.

RUBIO RUBIN – FC Utrecht (Holland) – 22 in 2018 – 0 caps

Speaking of Holland, Rubin is there for a mid-table club trying to break through, impress, and get sold. It's not a bad plan; Rubin was a youth star for the MNT.

---------------you're not sad at this point because you didn't come that close----------------

Jack McInerney had a couple of promising years with Philadelphia before hitting a rough patch and getting traded to Toronto; he could be a 25-year-old version of Wondo if things break right for him.Harry Shipp has made an instant impact in MLS after a brief career at ND.

Bobby Wood's been playing in the second tier of German football as a 21 year old and got a Gold Cup callup before his team requested he pass on it. 18-year-old Lynden Gooch is impressing on Sunderland's youth side; similarly barely-legal Paul Arriola is playing for Tijuana in the Mexican league. A kid named Dembakwi Yomba is at Atletico Madrid, having popped up on everyone's radar when he signed there.

ATTACKING MID

The US loses no one from this spot since they don't really have anyone. With a lot of the D-mid depth chart dropping out due to age and the clear problems the US had maintaining possession in this World Cup, goal #1 is going to get something resembling a true #10 on the field so Bradley can slide back.

Fortunately, there are a number of attractive options here. There is in fact a pile.

I don't think anyone's necessarily in or out yet. These guys are ordered by likelihood to show up on the 2018 roster.

DARLINGTON NAGBE – Portland Timbers – 27 in 2018 – 0 caps

Nagbe was born in Liberia and moved around the world a bit before landing in Cleveland as an 11 year old; you may remember him from Michigan's trip to the soccer Final Four. Nagbe was the super-skilled attacking-mid for Akron. A few years later he's become the focal point of Portland's attack. He does crazy, crazy stuff. I would like him to become an American citizen.

Fortunately, Nagbe recently married a citizen. That pushes his timeline forward to 2015. Count on him getting a call-up at the first available opportunity. He'll be in the heart of his prime in 2018.

MIX DISKERUD – Rosenborg (Norway) – 27 in 2018 – 20 caps

hi-res-175070472-mix-diskerud-of-the-usa-passes-the-ball-against_crop_exact[1]

Diskerud made this most recent World Cup roster and then didn't get a game. Brad Davis got a game. I am worried about him. Diskerud is talented but physically slight and not extraordinarily fast. He's also still in Norway at 23. If he's in Norway at 27 I don't think he's on the roster.

LUIS GIL – Real Salt Lake – 24 in 2018 – 1 cap

Gil has a shocking number of MLS appearances for a 20-year-old: he's currently on 95, all with RSL. He was the focal point of youth national teams for three or four years—he has a whopping 51 youth caps—and showed incredible craft on the ball.

He's found the transition to MLS a little rougher than you'd like, but he is still a regular starter for RSL and, remarkably, is entering his fifth season as a pro. He got a call-up in the last cycle and will get a heavy look in this one.

------------------------line of sadness----------------------------

JUNIOR FLORES – Borussia Dortmund (Germany) – 22 in 2018 - 0 caps

Flores was impressive enough to sign a four year deal with a major German club when he was just 16. Since U18 kids can't transfer abroad he had to wait until just a few months ago to sign. Flores led the US to a 3-1 win over Brazil's U20s in some Nike thing or another in which he was clearly the man of the match; he is a true #10, if he can only develop.

Flores can also play for El Salvador but turned down a call-up from them.

GEDION ZELALEM – Arsenal (England) – 21 in 2018 – 0 caps

Zelalem is the other hot prospect USA fans are in vapors about. Born in Germany to Ethiopian parents, Zelalem spent a good chunk of his childhood in the US before Arsenal signed him. His citizenship quest was thought to be a lost cause, but a few months ago someone figured out that if his dad became a citizen before Zelalem turned 18 he would automatically become one without losing the German passport that allows him to skate by England's restrictive foreigner laws.

Zelalem's already made his debut for Arsenal in an FA Cup match and was on the substitutes bench for three league games. That is kind of a big deal at 17. Here's a completely reasonable evaluation of him:

'dribbles like Iniesta and passes like Xavi'

All right then.

Obviously, acquiring US citizenship is hurdle #1 here. Then it's getting a good loan somewhere and establishing himself a EPL-level player.

-------------------line of not that close-----------------------

Joe Corona has 11 caps and will be 27 in 2018 but I just don't see it happening for him. For one, Nagbe's about to blast ahead of him in the pecking order. For two, he just doesn't seem to have that je ne sais quoi.

The "I can't believe you're still that young" twins: Jose Torres and Freddy Adu are just 26 and 24 at the moment, respectively. It could still happen! Really!

There's also this generation's John O'Brien, Stuart Holden. Holden is 28 and what with all the injuries seems highly unlikely to get to 2018 without seeing his physical abilities drop below the international level, but you never know. Fresh legs, that's the ticket.

Diego Fagundez would not be in this category except for the fact that he's not a citizen yet despite having been in the States since he was five. He recently acquired a green card and will be eligible for citizenship in 2017. That's hypothetically long enough to slot in the team before the World Cup, but at that point he'd have to climb over a number of other aspirants. Also, Uruguay could come calling before then.

19-year-old Duane Long is getting significant playing time with Huddersfield, which is in the Championship. 18-year-old Emerson Hyndman is excelling for Fulham's youth team.

Comments

FreddieMercuryHayes

July 3rd, 2014 at 3:12 PM ^

Ah, I didn't realize that.  I don't normally pay much attention (like, basically none at all) to the youth teams, but I'm interested in the Olympics this year becaues I would like to see how the young talent is developing after Klinsmann is trying to re-vamp all the youth type programs.  Will be interesting.

alum96

July 3rd, 2014 at 10:44 PM ^

I watched a U20, U21 tournament last year (not sure what age group) and the U.S. team is a lot farther behind world powers at that age than at the men's level.  The reason I think that is, is at least at the men's level we have integrated some of our foreign born players whereas our youth teams are pretty much all home grown.

Speaks to the system but it was frightening to watch some of the Spanish and French players in that tournament and then watch us.   If people complain about how the men's team played defensive...well...

A lot of those guys on those teams for other countries at that age are already starting on an EPL or La Liga type team.

EDIT - found it, it was the U20 World Cup.  Ironically we played Ghana (again) there - got run over.  Also run over by Spain.  I don't recall how we kept France 1-1 but France's U20 was friggin impressive.  They ended up winning the whole thing.  We were completely out of our level.

Sidenote on that tourney - a lot of Iraq's national team I guess were erased by the semi civil war there so their men's team is a bunch of teenagers who get waxed at the men's level but played very well in that tourney.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_FIFA_U-20_World_Cup

blicht4

July 3rd, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^

Did anyone who watched the Nagbe brace notice he had run around Beckerman and beat Rimando twice...? Yes, I know they're not world class talent, but still worthy enough to make the 2014 squad. Nagbe definitetly made them look amateur.

 

Looks promising.

charblue.

July 3rd, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^

of maintaining passion for the team in the gloaming of ouster. And it's always fun to project about potential rosters, players and stars. What I think the US performance does is accelerate team interest and growth possibilities as he notes.

It was fun during the tournament when Yeldin was brought in, to listen to all the concerns about his youth and inexperience in major competition, and then watch him defy those opinions. But what these guys fail to realize is, that once you get past that feeling as a player, it's just a game on a bigger stage, and instincts and confidence in your ability take over. We witness that all the time at Michigan Stadium.

And Yeldin was a danger to the opposition every time he came in. On Tuesday, his forced enntry was a needed shot in the arm. His only physical limitation, height, makes him vulenerable on set piece defense, but his speed is such an overwhelming advantage, you can overlook that.

So, I enjoyed his play and Besler, whom I thought was the US best defender, and played magnificently. If this team is to get markedly better it must compete with the right guys playing the right spots and with subs who provide not only similar talents as the starters but something extra in their skillset to change the game in whatever role they are placed.

 

UMQuadz05

July 3rd, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^

Guh, I had totally forgotten about Stu Holden.  Such a great player, and could have played CAM this year if his legs stopped betraying him. 

One other thing- Jack McInerney was traded to Montreal, and his ceiling is basically Wondo.  He's a great poacher, but he always ran hot and cold in Philly.

mgoBrad

July 3rd, 2014 at 2:25 PM ^

I co-sign with all who said they would read a USMNT blog written by you, Brian.

In line with that- anybody have other soccer blogs they recommend? USMNT-centric is preferable but not required. Here are the blogs/pods I frequent:

Men in Blazers - a couple funny English blokes that happen to love the USMNT. they've been a big hit during this WC providing content and comedic relief for ESPN. They've had a podcast for Grantland since 2011 that primarliy covers the EPL but also the USMNT and anything going on worldwide. Great if you like British humor, pop-culture references, and not too serious soccer analysis // meninblazers.com

Zonal Marking - my favorite blog about tactics. great to read for previous/recaps of games to see what the coaches were thinking and how their strategy work (or didn't). Seems to be one of Brian's favorites too // http://www.zonalmarking.net/

Howler - long form blogging that probably most closely approximates what Brian does for U of M sports. they also produce a quarterly magazine. similar to what Brian Phillips used to do at runofplay.com before Grantland snatched him and turned him loose on less interesting stuff, like tennis. the artwork is really neat too // http://www.howlermagazine.com/blog/

So, what else am I missing that's good out there? I've heard Yanks are Coming (http://www.yanksarecoming.com/) is good and I've seen Brian reference them. What else?

ken725

July 3rd, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^

There isn't much out there other than sites like sbnation, soccerbyives, and other big name sites (ESPN, Fox sports, etc.)

I used to read runof play.com, but I don't think that has had an update in a couple years.

The "Yanks abroad" thread on bigsoccer.com is probably the best place to read up on future and current USMNT players.

I was recently introduced to http://wvhooligan.com/. It is more of an mls blog and they cover some USMNT.

skurnie

July 3rd, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^

Or, rather than read YA post on BigSoccer, just read yanks-abroad.com

I like Zonal Marking and 11 Tegen 11 for nerdy analysis. American Soccer Now is one of the better US soccer websites out there, too.

Brian Phillips writes for Grantland now which is (sadly) why runofplay doesn't get updated any more.

Writers I enjoy:

Michael Cox (Zonal Marking)

Brian Sciaretta (ASN/YA)

Jonathan Wilson (Editor of The Blizzard)

Philippe Auclair (various)

Sam Borden (NYT)

Oliver Kay (The Times - England)

Simon Kuper (Author of Soccernomics & at Financial Times)

 

 

skurnie

July 3rd, 2014 at 7:00 PM ^

I subscribe to The Blizzard, which is quarterly and always a very good read. I get the electronic edition and it's LongForm as well. I think it's $4 a quarter or something absurdly cheap. Each edition is nearly 200 pages

chatster

July 4th, 2014 at 9:57 PM ^

While I'd gladly follow Brian Cook's Soccer Blog and I applaud the work he has done to promote the USMNT, I suspect that the man has more than enough on his plate just dealing with Michigan sports.  If Brian is determined to keep his comments about international football/soccer hibernating for the next four years, besides the major sports websites (ESPN, Fox, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, etc.) and those mentioned by MGoBrad,  here are some other places to travel on the Internet for news and information about the sport:
  • Soccer By Ives (good site for detailed news; edited by former columnist for ESPN and Fox Soccer; first place where I read about Aron Johannsson's ankle surgery that might explain why he never saw the field again after the Ghana match)
  • Goal.com  (another good site for gerneral news and live blogs)
  • Yanks Abroad (coverage of players with USMNT eligibility who are playing overseas)
  • College Soccer News (for those looking to follow the college game, even though few, if any, of these players will be challenging for the USMNT in 2018; and it's where you'll find that Michigan has the second ranked recruiting class in the country for 2014; LINK)
  • Barclays Premier League (for those who've been introduced to the league through the broadcasts this apst season on the NBC networks)
  • Bundesliga (for those who'd like to follow some of the young German-Americans who might be on Juergen Klinsmann's radar for the next four years)
  • Soccer-Spain (for those who will be watching La Liga matches on beIN Sports this coming season)

 

aplatypus

July 3rd, 2014 at 2:31 PM ^

as opposed to an attacking mid. 

Altidore and Boyd are probably locks barring injury unless another youthful center forward bursts onto the scene or he wants to try more of a false 9 like we did with Dempsey playing forward this year by then. 

I think Dempsey makes the roster again, he'll be older but he and Tim Howard are America in soccer. If both are playing still and want to go, they'll be there, though Guzan will probably be #1 for goalie. 

If both are eligible for the US Nagbe and Zelalem need to be on the roster; Zelalem shows more control and touch with the ball than just about anyone else we have already. 

The FannMan

July 3rd, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^

I am enjoying the hell ou to the world cup and enjoyed the Sunday morning EPL games that one of the networks broadcast this spring.  I would like to become more of a soccer fan and certainly follow the MNT more closely.  My question - how exactly does one do that?

There seem to be four or five big time leagues with God knows how many teams.  There is also MLS (can I get a Detroit team, plz?).   What/how should I watch?  

The suggestions for Brian to start a soccer blog are outstanding. Would. Read.  On the off chance that Brian claims to be busy with this ol'blog and/or have a life, is there any other English language soccer blog?  Men in Blazers have been pretty funny, by I am wondering if they are just some English guys who are secretly making fun of us while stealing money from ESPN.  (BTW - I am perfectly fine if that is the case.)

[EDIT - I just saw MGoBrad's post on the blogs.  Thanks.  Any other suggestions/hints?]

skurnie

July 3rd, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^

Full Disclosure: I do some writing at Yanks-Abroad.com

 

Writers I enjoy:

Michael Cox (Zonal Marking)

Brian Sciaretta (ASN/YA)

Jonathan Wilson (Editor of The Blizzard)

Philippe Auclair (various)

Sam Borden (NYT)

Oliver Kay (The Times - England)

Simon Kuper (Author of Soccernomics & at Financial Times)

AA2Denver

July 3rd, 2014 at 3:12 PM ^

Starting 11:

                   

                       Jozy

Green          Zelalem       FJ

                 Bradley     Stanko

Packwood Besler Brooks Yedlin

                      Guzan

 

If everyone develops as planned, this is a good squad with youth/experience, creativity. Nearly the whole team will have played in top tier Euro leagues.

 

ca_prophet

July 3rd, 2014 at 3:24 PM ^

... but I read these articles here because it's one-stop shopping and I like his writing enough to learn more about US soccer. Somehow a separate blog feels like a bigger investment that I'm not willing to make.

dirtypasta

July 3rd, 2014 at 4:52 PM ^

Duane Long? I believe his name is Duane Holmes, definitely a nice little prospect and can help us out in the hair department with the loss of Beckerman

swan flu

July 3rd, 2014 at 7:18 PM ^

I dunno man. The US pipeline is in better shape than ever before. The probability of more than one guy not on this list to make the 2018 roster is pretty high. It is likely that a relatively less heralded player makes huge strides in the next four years simply because the number of Good US prospects is higher than ever right now. For the first time ever we don't have to pin our hopes on a guy like Joe Corona. If he doesn't reach his potential, a guy like Paul Arriola, Joe Gallardo, or Marc Pelosi will. The arrow of US soccer is pointing firmly up.

alum96

July 3rd, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^

As others have said of the 23 players in 2018, I would bet 7-9 are not in this roundup.  So much can change in 4 years. 

I do agree we have some interesting pipeline talent but a lot of it needs immigration work lol.  And we have a lot less chance for missing.  For every 50 prospects in Spain only 5 need to hit, here we need 5 out of 15.

swan flu

July 4th, 2014 at 7:43 AM ^

I disagree. We may only list 15 here but make no mistake, we have a large body of talent in the pipeline that isn't being discussed yet. The difference is our best prospects have lower ceilings right now than Spain prospects. In the past, we would have to field journeyman untalented guys like Wondolowski, Bornstein, Ricardo Clark, etc... I think you won't see any of those type of guys on the 2018 roster.

alum96

July 3rd, 2014 at 10:26 PM ^

Thanks for this article Brian.  I was impressed with Gil in one of these recent tournaments last year? U20? U21?  He was the only guy in an American jersey who was calm under pressure which was a bit depressing.  I dont follow MLS that close so I didnt know how he was doing there but he is still a baby.  In that same tournament I watched the Spanish and French teams and I was like...doom.  They are damn good and their pipeline is sick.

It sounds like we will continue to rely on foreign born or dual citizen types in our attacking 5-6.  That is definitely the weakness of US development.  We could use two Claudia Reyna's (the injury free versions) showing up in the next few years. 

I think we can churn out defenders to compete at a high level, and GKs we've already been there for 15 years.  It's the attacking players where there needs to be a lot of hits coming to change the complexion of this team.

AnthonyThomas

July 4th, 2014 at 6:36 AM ^

I think the hope is that because Germany routinely produces players of his caliber they won't be that hardpressed to recruit him, and he more that likely will be ready to play for the US before Germany, because of the talent disparity. Which could be a nice carrot in our corner.

buddhafrog

July 4th, 2014 at 12:19 AM ^

Don't wait four years!  Give us one front page post when USMNT plays important friendlies, qualifying matches, and other tournaments.  It'll be one post per month on average.  YES!

buddhafrog

July 4th, 2014 at 12:33 AM ^

Attacking midfield is where our young talent looks dreamy.  You would hope we'll find appropriate places to put a few of these guys, with only one true CAM.  Could others find a place on USMNT at LM or RM?  Julian Green has one of those positions locked up, you would hope.  If we go 4-3-3, you wonder if LW or RW would become possible.