Does this mean McGary stays or goes?
I thought about using a more provocative title, given my opinion on this, but no reason to troll on an already bad news day:
I think McGary is gone. Not based on draft stock, but on tea leaf logic. Consider:
- Horford already knows McGary's decision, but Mitch hasn't announced yet. Why wouldn't he announce right away if he were coming back? Horford says his choice had nothing to do with Mitch's decision.
- GRIII appears to have made his choice. And, if reports are accurate, it is to leave. Now, it has been thought that GRIII and Mitch are a package deal. Maybe or maybe not, but it seems like they are/were trying to reveal the news together.
- Even if that is not explicitly the case, though, wouldn't he be more likely to leave if McGary left? GRIII wants to play (and, importantly, defend) the small forward position. That has always been difficult in Beilein's system, but it's impossible if McGary leaves--GRIII would be guaranteed to play the 4 for the entire season.
I could be wrong and I hope I am. Mitch has much more to gain by coming back than GRIII did, and not as much to lose. But this all makes lots of sense if Mitch is leaving.
We'll find out soon.
I should have never left the Mad Men/GOT thread.
but my body, my body is telling me Yessss.
Edit: For those who don't recognize the song...My brain says he's gone, but my heart says he stays one more year.
Well aren't you a Debbie Downer!
How's this for Debbie Downer?
I'm calling that Zak Irvin is gone too. Bacardi tweeted "The future is bright" in regards to Irvin, GR3, Stauskas, McGary, and Horford. So far, that has indicated 3 are gone, with a fourth likely. So... scary as it may be, I wonder if Irvin has had something come up...
But suggesting Zak is going pro is just crazy.
I never suggested he was going pro, simply that from what Bacari tweeted, it seems like he may be leaving. I will fully admit it is speculation, but it is not baseless... it seems like based on the context of that tweet, that there is now a decent shot that Irvin may go elsewhere. I'm not writing it in stone, just vocalizing a concern.
then Mitch has more. GR3 is NOT ready but sounds like potential will carry him. We can look back in two years max and determine if the advice they are receiving was sound. I don't get it but $ talk and the college BB game of 1-2 year and done is getting tiresome. Lacrosse anyone?
I can't wait until schools can start paying kids and lock them into 4 year contracts so no more of this bailing on the program after 2 seasons. Just think how awesome Michigan might have been if guys like Burke and Robinson played out their full college careers.
still not as awesome as Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, and UNC? I get what you are saying, but imagine how good other programs would be too. We haven't been the only program losing players.
Those schools won't be able to recruit like this once the kids actually have to go to class.
Who says they will have to go to class?
Sadly I agree with your logic and conclusions......
neither decision impacts the other.
I just made a grilled cheese sandwich and when I flipped it over the bread revealed an image of the hamburglar. I think that points to Mitch leaving.....to grab lunch at McDonalds. However, today's date also features three fours which is indisputable evidence of him staying.....inside when it rains.
You should try selling it on ebay for 28,000 dollars.
At that price, it's a steal.
/ba dum tsss
Well the Virgin Mary grilled cheese went for 28,000, and I'm sure not you could justify asking more for hamburglar.
This is a major life decision for each player, regardless of what the other player is going to do. Mitch has to do what's best for Mitch, and that could be completely different from Nik and Glenn. I have a hard time believing that Mitch is on the fence, and GRIII leaving will all of a sudden make him go pro as well.
If Horford indeed knows Mitch's decision (he may not), I would have to imagine Mitch would be staying, because why else would Horford transfer for more playing time?
Probably because his family has been trying to convince him to transfer for four years.
I think you can read Horford's MLive story in either direction. He said the offense wasn't a good fit for him, and you could run with that and believe that he wouldn't care if he played 30 minutes a night at Michigan because he would still wouldn't be getting the kind of touches he wants. However, his mother also said that Coach Beilein broke down for him "how things will be" (maybe not the exact quote) next year, and if that meant anything to Horford, it's easy to imagine him leaving b/c he believed McGary was going to stay.
My guess is that all three guys are gone, but that's just my guess.
Whichever way you slice it, the last two years have been one helluva ride. Those players elevated Michigan to another level, and it was fun to watch.
Have a little faith in Beilein and his methods. He took Michigan basketball out of the dark ages. I have copious amounts of faith that a core of Walton/Irvin/LeVert and the others will make sure the ship continues in the right direction. Everyone is so gloom and doom today. Michigan putting all of these guys into the pros is a good thing. It will make it easier to sell the program to the big AAU teams that are worried about things like that. I still think the biggest loss to date is the J-Mo loss.
You would have to admit, that if Michigan loses that much rebounding and inside scoring in one year (McGary, Morgan, Horford, and GRIII) and assuming Stauskas is gone too - next year will be much down compared to the last two. Basically, our entire inside game would be guys who either have zero playing time (Donnal, Wilson, Doyle) or very sparse time (Bielfeldt). Basically, we'd be down to almost entirely a perimeter team. I think a little gloom and doom is justified, at least today. We'll see what McGary's decision is though. If he stays, I'll return to the sunny side.
A front line of Doyle, Donnal, Bielfeldt, Wilson, and Chatman could be very good in two years. This year, I would expect them to be hammered on the boards and when on defense.
While I don't think it's ideal, I think if you told everyone that prior to the season this year we were only going to have Mitch for 8 games there would have been the same kind of reaction. Wait until Beilein has exhausted all resources getting another recruit or transfer, then panic if you must. Even if we lose all of that, I still don't see Michigan falling too far back in the back. The team is maybe not an Elite 8 outfit, but they should still be pretty damn good. Rebounding this year was an issue and they won in spite of that. I don't see our shooting percentage and offense dropping off the map because of these losses. It may just mean that these young guys have to contribute defensively until they get going on the other end. I wouldn't fret too much. It's still a good issue to have. Putting players in the NBA just means that more NBA level talent will walk through the doors. Maybe not as quickly as we all would like, but soon enough. Think of what MSU loses this year, and what they bring back next year. I would much rather be in Michigan's position.
I think the NBA evaluation will have much more weight
I think we find out about all 3 by the end of this week. IMO Nik and GR3 gone and Mitch reluctantly stays.
I don't think one affects the other. I still think Mitch McGary probably stays. But either way, we'll be fine.
If you follow Sam Webb on twitter (@samwebb77), he was asked on April 11 if he thought all three guys would leave. He said "yes," and when pushed for more details he said it was a gut feeling. For those who listen to the WTKA podcasts, Sam's gut feelings are always based on legtitmate inside information. If Sam's gut says all three are gone then I think all three are gone barring some Trey Burke like miracle. Trey had packed all of his stuff and was ready to leave after his freshman year, but had a change of heart.
I'm not sure I take a flyer on kid coming off of back surgery that hasn't yet proved he can withstand a season of play much less proved that he has returned to his pre-injury form.
For a quality franchise like the Spurs you can take the chance on Mitch. If he remains injury free you got a mid first round value at 30 or 31 or whatever. Most alternatives at 30 dont have upside Mitch does. You dont teach size. There are a dime a dozen 6'4 guards at #30 in the first.
I am truly amazed that if Mitch declares our entire starting team from the NC game will be gone in 12 months. And that was 3 freshman, a sophomore, and a junior!*
*Assuming Nik goes but he seems to be the most no brainer of the 3.
We're like "One-and-a-Half-and-Done" U.
Whoo Hoo!! Suck it, Kentucky.
Why "one-and-a-half" and not "two"?
I hate to be that guy, but how is this thread worthy? Can everyone just post a thread based on their gut feelings about whether Michigan players are declaring for the draft or a recruit committing to Michigan? At best, this belongs in the GR III thread below.
Rant over.
Maybe God told the OP about McGary.
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I said a couple times in the other thread...(and exaggerating a little, just to get the metaphor and/or point across)
Last year, Glenn was Mitch's only "best friend" it was a lot harder to stay without your boy and your only boy.
People around the program will tell you that he really bonded with the "Bench Mob" guys this year and he's really good friends with them as well.
That's NOT saying Glenn isn't still his friend or his BEST friend, it's just saying he's got other friends to hangout with and be a college student with. He didn't have that as much last year.
So last year he was losing 1 of 1 best friend, now he may be losing 1 of 4, 5, or 6 best friends.
Personally, I think he stays because of this. He wasn't going to play on the same team with GRIII anyway, but more importantly, he's got other really good friends still on the team and in Ann Arbor. This time last year would've felt more "alone" where as this time it feels like you lose a member of the wolfpack.
Again, I'm exaggerating to some extent and I'm not acting like I know every detail of McGary's friendship scale, but I do believe if you take the exaggeration out that this does make sense. I think he stays.
Mitch is coming back. He is hungry. He loves college. He loves Michigan. He will have an excellent season capped with a national championship and cement himself as a 1st rounder.
early if there are one or more teams that want to draft them. I DO blame the NBA however for their escalating tendency to draft college players that are too young. It's almost as if they ALL feel like they have to do this because the other teams are doing it. To me it just doesn't make sense to invest that much money in players not physically or mentally ready for the rigors of pro ball. I'm praying for everyone's sake (the players themselves, college fans, and NBA fans) that the NBA makes some kind of reform to raise the minimum age of college players drafted. Rant over.
Eh, the problem with minimum age rules are that there definitely are kids who are ready to go. You're doing them (and other kids who could use the scholly) no favors by forcing them to "play school".
I do think the "one and done" age limit is particularly dumb though. If you're going to have a limit, it should be three years a la football. Maybe the best would be "enter the draft or D-league your first year out of high school, or at least three years after". But that seems unworkable and the NBA has no incentive to do it.
- Mitch probably hasn't announced either way because he is waiting to hear from the advisory committee, or is weighing what they came back with. Horford probably meant that he knows which way Mitch is leaning, not that he knows 100%.
- I'm not sure Glenn's decision opens the door one way or the other. There really was only ever room for 2 of the 3 to come back anyway.
that they were staying out and going in together--Stauskas and GRob going suggests Michigan will not be as strong a team next year. That in itself could be another reason for McGary to move on.