2014 NBA Draft Board update
Three updates today on the NBA Draft potential of some Michigan players. Nik Stauskas, please stop reading here as the rest of the post contains spoilers. It looks like most reputable sites have Nik Stauskas in the #15-20 range of the 1st round, Glenn Robinson III as an early 2nd round pick with potential of sneaking in the end of the 1st round, and Mitch McGary in the 2nd round.
ESPN's Chad Ford:
Stauskas 1st round pick at #15, GR III at #39 on his Big Board, McGary at #42.
DraftExpress:
Stauskas 1st round pick at #20, McGary at #37, GR III at #44 on their board.
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/
ESPN's Jeff Goodman:
Stauskas 1st round in the #10-20 range, GR III in the 2nd round with potential for the end of the 1st round.
On Stauskas:
NBA folks I’ve talked to have the 6-foot-5 and change Canadian wing as a guy who will likely be taken somewhere in the 10-20 range. Stauskas has expanded his game and shown he can do more than just shoot the ball. He's athletic and has a tremendous feel for the game. John Beilein has three players who could all decide to leave -- Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary. If somehow all three returned, the Wolverines -- with freshman point guard Derrick Walton Jr. having a year under his belt -- could have a chance to challenge for the national title next season.
On GR III:
There are times when he looks terrific, and others when GR3 appears disinterested and invisible. He has good size for a wing and possesses tremendous athleticism, but he hasn’t lived up to the expectations this season. Robinson, according to multiple NBA executives, could still go in the latter part of the first round -- but he’s far from a lock to go in the first 30 picks. The Wolverines could well lose Stauskas and McGary, and that would almost force Robinson to be the go-to guy if he returns to Ann Arbor.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/jeff-goodman/post?id=3269
SI's Chris Mannix from 2/27:
Stauskas 1st round at #17
Burke would probably be a better comparison as someone who was given a late 1st round draft grade and came back to win a Wooden award and vault himself securely into the lottery as the 1st PG taken. That said, I don't think that Stauskas has as much to gain by returning and as far as his draft position is concerned (10-20 overall), he only risks having his stock take a hit due to injury (see McGary) or plateauing his Jr year (see Robinson). I'd love to see him come back, but I've always been of the thought that if you have a mid 1st round grade, you gotta go. Same theory applies to football.
You are correct about THJ's sophomore year.
I think Walton will be here through his Jr. year and will start over Spke in '15 - '16.
are 3 years guys with the trends of junior is the new senior year in terms of NBA aspiration.
Although I think he could strongly benefit from another year, especially on the defensive side of the ball, Stauskas is probably gone. Virtually every draft board has him in the first round and I don't think he'll turn away the chance to go. GRIII is absolutely NOT ready. He has a ridiculous amount of potential, but is extremely inconsistent and is often invisible when we are playing in hostile road environments (Purdue being an exception). Mitch is a bit of a mystery. If he stays projected in the second round, I think he returns. I've even heard LeVert's name being thrown around by some of the talking heads on ESPN, but unless he completely goes off in the NCAA Tournament, I would be absolutely shocked to see him leave.
He is on the verge of being a Mythical Figure in Michigan Basketball and would achieve rarified heights if he saw a Junior Year in Ann Arbor. I just don't think he will pass on the top 20 selection he will be. I hope that he does well in his workouts and doesn't end up a workout casualty. The NBA bases a lot of the selection on how you do individually in the franchises specific workouts. Nik is not an elite athlete and i feel like his draft stock could plummet once NBA GMs watch this first hand. Nik is a ball player with a great feel for the game. He is an ice in the veins shooter with a Killer Instinct. Those traits don't show in the Draft Evaluations often times. In short....I think he will declare with the notion that he is a top 15 pick. I think once it's all said and done he goes in the early to mid 20s. If he does in fact leave he will be sorely missed next season. What a great year he is having!
that Stauskas would be leaning towards entering the draft. GR3 and McGary not so much.
Career-wise, now it looks like he clearly should've gone pro last year though it's tough to foresee an injury. I don't know this for sure, but I've seen it written that entering the draft as a 23-24 yr old isn't good either so now he's got to go in the 2nd this year or come back and hopefully play well enough to sneak into the 1st the following
Based on this I would say Stauskas bolts, but with GR3 and MM looking like 2nd rounders and more likely than ever to return, he may just stay one more year to see if they can go all the way...please please please....alot could depend on what happens in the tourney...deep run may make it easy for him to leave, one and done and he may want to come back. Who knows!
...I would encourage Nik to return for one more year to get a little bigger, stronger, and more seasoned to handle the rigors of that schedule and prep for tougher competition.
His father was the one saying "only a few more months and we're in the NBA" (paraphrasing) so I don't think we'll be getting any help there.
You can consider him gone. at this point. Enjoy the run we're about to see.
Really don't see Stauskas staying if he is projected to be drafted in the top 20. He is the likely big ten POY and I find it hard to see his draft stock getting much higher. One can always dream though
For all of them though, next years draft is way weaker and it may behoove, GRIII in particular, to stay. If he becomes no 1 or 2 option on team he could dramatically alter his stock.
On McGary, I think he has the worst situation. If he goes, he has little leverage and his stock will be as low as it might be (presuming he can play again). If he stays, he is going to be nba ready but an aarp draft pick with an injury history.
has assurance from a team picking in late 1st round (rumor). The problem is player unexpectedly fall to their spot and they took that player instead of Darius. If Darius hadn't got a promise from a certain team, he would've been back IMO.
Right now, Nik is very likely gone and I'd expect GR3 and Mitch to be back to prove something/work on their games.
GR3 to show more of an all around game, particularly the ability to shoot the mid-range jumper with consistency and confidence. If you watch him before games/2nd halfs, he'll shoot the lights out, making many, many 3's in a row. Sure, its not a game but I think he has the ability to shoot more consistently and he'll come back to prove that.
Mitch simply has to prove he is healthy. The issue is his age but I'm not sure he'll have much of a choice.
I don't think either would go without expecting to be selected in the 1st round. With the depth of the draft class, that just is not going to be likely.
I know he's a Baller, but too risky for an nba pick this year
GR - Gone. I'm not sure he is as interested in the college game as we would like him to be. Another year of invisibility will not raise his draft status. Someone will take a chance in the first round. If he stays, we might enjoy a season of beast-mode, but I doubt he has it in him at this level.
Mitch - 50/50. Leaving now could at least get him on an NBA roster for a while. Staying another year might expose his game and lead to another injury. Like GR, the upside to another year is small and while a Mitch beast-mode in 14-15 seems more likely than GR, I'm not sure it is worth the risk to a player of his age and injury history.
Stauskas is gone. It is a good problem to have.
I echo a small concern upthread about Caris leaving. Dude seems like Rondo without superhuman steal ability. End of the day, we get him for another year.
Show me where Rondo has ever been able to shoot 41 % from 3 on 4 attempts?
And people are still saying GR3 hasn't improved since his FR year? http://www.umhoops.com/2014/03/04/a-closer-look-at-glenn-robinson-iii-s…
I disagree with whomever said GR3 doesn't need to focus on his 3 point shot. It's his main weakness as an offensive player, outside of his one on one dribble drive game. If I have to compare him to anyone, Victor Oladipo comes to mind. Oladipo was also an undersized PF at Dematha HS who sucked at dribbling and shooting th 3 his first two years at Indiana beforre it coming together his 3rd year. Glenn is already further along as a shooter and ballhandler but Oladipo was a bit more active on the boards, getting blocks, getting steals but part of that is our defensive scheme. Another guy that comes to mind is Andre Iguodala.
Offer Nik's girlfriend a full scholarship to continue her education at Michigan (maybe with some bonus contingencies requiring Nik to stay in school). I'm sure our MGoLegal team could come up with something.
I think Nik is gone, I think GR3 is gone, and I think Coach McGary is gone too.
No matter what these kids decide to do, nobody should be worried. Beilein pwns the B1G.
What a depressing thread.
This is why college basketball, despite being a thrilling game to watch (much better than the NBA) and having a wonderful climax to the season with the 64+ team tournament, is so much less compelling to me now than in past decades.
College basketball is reduced to being a developmental league. It's too bad, because the game has so much going for it. You have to work at it, to screw up college basketball. They are definitely working at it.
Could you elaborate? Who is screwing it up?
Stauskas leaving early is a good thing.
If you want us to have a 'national' program then people are going to leave early... and that is fine. I don't particularily want to become a 'one and done' type destination but for people to leave after their sophomore years they have to be pretty good...
jdon
Stauskas: He gone boys. There is no rational reason for him to pull a Lewan if you're being honest with yourself. It's okay. Enjoy this year and prepare to place him among the same firmament of Beilein stars as Trey Burke.
"If somehow all three returned, the Wolverines -- with freshman point guard Derrick Walton Jr.having a year under his belt -- could have a chance to challenge for the national title next season."
I don't think we need all three back to contend for a title next year. We had four guys deciding last year, and effectively got only one back (arguably the least important of the four,) and here we are as Big 10 champs and a 3 seed or even a potential 2.
I think Stauskas coming back by himself would make us a favorite - though I don't think that will happen. A healthy McGary returning by himself would form a very solid core group with LeVert and a more experienced Walton. Robinson would be a nice bonus to either one of those guys coming back. But yeah, just one out of three would be enough IMO to put us solidly in the discussion. Given what we accomplished this year, even all three guys taking off isn't enough for me to discount anything. I still think that another 15-20lbs on LeVert and we're talking about a guy that is awfully hard to keep out of the paint. There will be enough around him that if his game takes that next step, we'll win a lot of games again.
I almost don't even like to debate whether guys should or shouldn't go. The money always says leave, unless you're projected low and have enough potential that playing into lottery territory for the next draft is achievable (LeVert is the rare type that might fit this definition, in fact.) The potential to improve as a player almost alway says stay - in terms of draft stock, sure, not everyone can climb above a certain point. But I think there is pretty much always room to improve your game.
So I actually do think Stauskas could gain something purely as a player by sticking around - he can work on his handles and develop a post game. He's not going to push his draft stock much higher though. I doubt he stays, but I'm willing to feel like the luckiest fan ever if he'd like to.
Robinson could gain a lot by sticking around, again, as a player. If his stock says first round, then I don't get it but money talks. I think the potential is there for him to return another year and develop into a lottery type, but that assumes that he can really develop some handles and some ability to break guys down off the dribble. Defense and rebounding would be welcome, too. I'm sure he can do these things. Will he put in the work, though? Or will he get paid first and then use the money as motivation?
McGary I honestly don't know. The health questions make everything uncertain. If he comes back, if he's healthy all year, and if he develops some post offense then we're talking about a guy that can push into lotto territory. But those are three big ifs. You have to respect either choice, under those circumstances. Better to get drafted in the first round next year than second round now, but better to get drafted in the second round now than the second (or not at all) next year.
Thinking back to the late 80s vs early 90s i.e. specifically Glen Rice vs Chris Webber, did the NBA change its rules for early entry at that point? Because I know by the early 90s leaving early was in fashion while thinking back I have no idea how we held onto Glen Rice his entire career. I thought Nik was on a Glen Rice arc in terms of points at UM if he stayed all 4 years but was hoping for 3...
"If he comes back, if he's healthy all year, and if he develops some post offense then we're talking about a guy that can push into lotto territory."
I actually don't think McGary needs to demonstrate back to the basket ability. Just PnR and PnP (shows a solid midrange jumper), faceup slashes to the basket (i.e. David Lee or Chris Bosh), get out in transition, rebound, throw those outlet passes and solid post defense will all make him a solid 1st rounder. Basically do what he is already good at on higher usage and also show that he is healthy. When we tried dumping it into McGary early in the season, it bogged down our offense.
Caris adds consistency to his pull-up jumper/floater and some more strength/weight and he is gone next year. He looks closer to 6'7'' now and has combo-guard ability. His defense and PnR action have gotten exponentially better with reps/ experience and will continue to do so...