Monday Basketball Discussion Thread
Big Ten Tourney Week. Congrats to MSU. Impressive season, fought through legit adversary and won some really big games. I think both losses, particularly this last one, will help this Michigan team grow both in this post-season and next season as well.
The Friday midnight tip is going to make this a little bit of a long week, but with Matthews still recovering I guess the longer we wait the better. Hopefully this can make for a little bit of a random discussion depository for thoughts and takes that don't warrant their own thread.
First, who do you see winning the BTT and what is your opinion of our draw. I don't hate the likely Iowa matchup, though I get a knot in my stomach every time Jordan Bohanan shoots a 3. I think Iowa likes to push pace and attack down hill but that is tough to do against our transition defense. We also need to avenge the ref-show in Iowa City so I am fairly comfortable with the matchup. Not much about Purdue scares me (assuming a healthy Matthews), I like that matchup if we get there. Frankly, looking at the bracket, it is hard not see Michigan v. Michigan State Part 3 as coming to fruition next Sunday. Part of me wants it to try to square things on the season to the extent possible. Another part of me hopes the next time we see Cassius Winston on the same floor as Michigan will be at Crisler sometime next January.
Also, maybe it has been posted and discussed, but what exactly is Matthews injury? Is it just a sprain, the dreaded "high ankle" maybe? It surprises me that he both returned to the game in which it happened and has taken this long to recover. I know he practiced and warmed up, which seems to indicate that he wants to play, but with his NBA aspirations a part of me wonders if he is a little apprehensive about pushing his luck. Chances are he is going to have to really impress at the draft combine, etc., and it would not be ideal if he is nursing anything at that time. Have not "heard" anything to indicate that is the case, but given what the injury looked to be I thought he would be back by now. I certainly thought we would see a few minutes from him on Saturday.
In any case, there was a time just a decade ago when our only shot at the NCAA tournament was to try to win the BTT tournament only to give up a wide open half court heave to OSU. And while Saturday was not ideal, we are a looong way from those days. Let it begin. Happy March Madness.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
"I simply don't see how they beat Iowa"
Iowa has lost four straight. Rutgers and Nebraska have managed to beat them in the last couple weeks, I think we will be fine.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
I'm sure this would shock you, but Michigan is currently the #18 offense in the country and the #2 defense per KenPom They are one of 8 teams in the country with top-20 rankings in both. Michigan has never done that before, and their offense is ranked higher now that it was around December. They've just played tougher teams.
There is this weird contingent of posters (a good number of them are either contrarian for it's own sake or intellectually dishonest) who want to be negative about UM sports because they find it easier than being critical and thoughtful. Because of they are correct and UM loses, they can trumpet their foresight. And if UM wins, they can just enjoy it and not draw attention to their takes. So by all means keep telling yourself you don't see UM beating Iowa and losing early in March Madness, but don't get mad when people question the effort put into those claims.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
I'm sure this would shock you, but Michigan is currently the #18 offense in the country and the #2 defense per KenPom They are one of 8 teams in the country with top-20 rankings in both.
Thanks for sharing the KenPom rankings - i didn't look them up before. They don't change my opinion on how I think the next 2 weeks go. But they are good to know.
Reasons I think Iowa would beat Michigan in the BTT
- Iowa beat UM by 15 in the regular season
- They are a tough match up for Michigan
- Michigan has struggled to play consistent defense against teams that are tough matchups for them - ie MSU and Iowa
They've just played tougher teams.
So when we have played tougher teams, we have lost. That's my point exactly.
There is this weird contingent of posters... who want to be negative about UM sports because they find it easier than being critical and thoughtful.
Help me understand how sharing an opinion different from yours means they/we are aren't being critical or thoughtful? So in your view, we all need to say "Michigan is going to win the BTT title and the national championship!" and anything else means they are inattentive?
Because of they are correct and UM loses, they can trumpet their foresight. And if UM wins, they can just enjoy it and not draw attention to their takes
I won't trumpet shit. Why would I come on here and boast about my favorite team losing? That makes no sense. These are posts to share opinions and hot takes.
but don't get mad when people question the effort put into those claims.
There is a difference in someone sharing their counter opinion and someone not doing that, and instead, just calling you a troll. One furthers the discussions on the topic at hand and one is lazy and contemptible.
That Iowa team wasn't the one that's been playing the last couple of weeks, and you noted we can't judge teams from holistically but only on their performance recently.
Also, you didn't really answer how they're a "bad matchup". That's Brian's line, which seems based on the idea that they have a lot of tall guys who can sorta shoot and have some depth. Of course, they are atrocious on defense (the worst in the conference by a healthy margin) and their offense has scuttled recently, so even the "good" part of their team has been underwhelming recently. Also, Iowa only averaged about a point per possession in their game against UM; what did UM in was only scoring .83 ppp. That seems like an outlier to me for a team whose offense is basically equal to Iowa's from an analytical standpoint.
Michigan lost to MSU twice. That's been in it. They beat Maryland; a top-25 team, rather handily. Going farther back, they handily beat Minnesota on the road and Wisconsin at home. Again, if you want to recency bias this argument then by honest about it and internally consistent, because otherwise you post stuff like "Iowa's a bad matchup" (1-5 in their last 6) with "Michigan is scuttling" when they've lost to MSU twice and basically taken care of business everywhere else.
I don't have an issue with people with logical criticisms of UM sports. But you have to be intellectually honest. I don't think this team can win a national title; they'll likely bow out somewhere on the second weekend. That's fine, and I can give you a lot of reasons why that's the case. You were the person whose first post was "they're going to struggle against Nebraska and everyone here will complain and then others will tell them to stop and blah blah blah", then when called out for that being a weird first impression you went on some slog about how you never knew about the site, then sorta did but didn't, etc. It all leads to me not really trusting your motives, and your overall discussion and takes are pretty surface-level and reactive. Which is fine; everyone can feel how they want. But I'm simply disagreeing and asking for some rationale for your views. You called them mentally soft and a team that can't play division 1 offense, which again is hilariously wrong and lazy and all the stuff I said. So yes, by all means keep dropping those hot takes, but don't be surprised if someone points out how dumb and lazy they are. Whether or not that makes you a "troll" is up to you.
Yah, I predicted they would lose to Nebraska. I was wrong. Predicting they lose to Iowa is just that - prediction/a guess. I already laid out my reasons why I think that in a comment above here.
I don't think this team can win a NC either. And I wouldn't bet on them losing in the first round either - so now we are debating on the middle ground. Seems like we are splitting hairs on the tone of posts then, as we both are guessing they will lose at some point soon.
As far as being surface level, yah, I don't want to go look up fancy stats - i watch the games and give a take. If they are hot, they are hot. It's pretty easy to see what this team is and what this team isn't. And it's easy to see that for the rest of the B1G too.
As far as when I joined, I never said I sorta knew about the site. I said I found it when I found it. This place is so hung up on when people join. I get that MSU and OSU fans come here and pester people, but the paranoia off putting.
With regards to the offense, I still stand by my opinion. This team doesn't play high level, D1 NC-winning offense. I think that is obvious but I bet you will say I am wrong.
I also think they are mentally weak, yes. I think that plays a huge factor in their inability to win consistently on the road, to bounce back from momentum swings, etc. If you think that is lazy, that's your opinion. Again, we are discussing reasons why I think they lose in the 2nd or 3rd round of the tournament and you think they will lose in the 3rd or 4th.
Did you really predict Michigan would lose to Nebraska?
Lol
Yah, I didn't realize that team would quit on Miles before they even got off the bus - Roby might be the most disappointing player in the league this year. And throw Palmer Jr. in that discussion too.
Don’t forget that vs. Iowa it really killed us when Teske fouled out with only 13 minutes played. He had 8 points and 8 rebounds in those 13 minutes too, so he was having a good game
Our reserve big men did nothing to fill the void. Livers 3 points and 1 rebound in 14 mins, Johns Jr 0 points and 0 rebounds in 10 mins, Austin Davis 0 points and 0 rebounds in 5 minutes, and Castleton 0 points and 2 rebounds in 4 minutes.
If we stay out of foul trouble (and hopefully get Matthews back) we should beat Iowa.
Yikes I read that and thought that was Johns line against MSU. He has been so bad. Definitely not surprising that he was passed by Castleton.
March 11th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
The offense sucks. This was a rebuild year. Great regular season. Hopefully JB has some more tournament magic for the team.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
It's the #18 offense in the country. It lacks a definite shooter like Wagner or late Walton, but it definitely do not suck. They just happened to play two top-20 defenses in 3 of the last 4 games.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
Where are you getting Michigan has the #18 offense in the country from? Michigan ranks 80th in offensive efficiency, 239th in scoring offense, 151st in FG% and 135th in three point shooting %.
They're 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency at barttorvik.com and 18th at kenpom.com. If you aren't familiar with how these rankings work, you must have been living under a rock for the past 5-10 years.
Your metrics mean nothing. You are citing a non-adjusted offensive efficiency, meaning it does not account for quality of opponent so it is mostly meaningless. Raw FG% and 3PT% are also not considering opponents so it's also mostly meaningless.
Scoring offense is even more meaningless. It does not account for opponent quality OR pace. Michigan plays a slow pace and averages fewer possessions played in games so they'll score fewer points because of that but it doesn't mean they are a worse offense because it.
And you're ignoring Michigan's biggest strength on offense. They are top 3 in the country at not turning it over which is very important because it means more possessions end in shots than most other teams. Before you even need to worry about making shots you need to make sure you take them.
Making a statement like "The offense sucks" is such a ridiculous hot take I don't even know why I'm responding but Michigan has a top 20 offense. Give them 100 possessions against an average team and they'll score more points than all but about 17-18 other teams. They are not the teams with Trey Burke ('13) or Nik Stauskas ('14) or Derrick Walton ('17) which were top 3 offenses and could bomb anyone out of the gym.
But they are a very good offensive team, and they're an elite defensive team such that they are a top ten team. Hard to complain about that.
March 11th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
I am looking forward to rematches with Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin.
March 11th, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
Before the season starts with football and basketball, I try to break down every game by category (Certain Win, Probable win, Lean to win, toss-up, lean to loss, probable loss, Certain loss). Basically, it boils down to this for me:
- We won one game I figured would be in the 'probable loss' column, which was at Villanova
- We lost one game I figured would be in the 'probable win' column, which was at Penn State
- Every other game we lost would have been somewhere between lean to win to lean to loss
No one is happy about losing twice to MSU, but when you boil it down, this season played out exactly as I figured it would with the two exceptions above. Sadly, reversing those results would have netted us another banner, but they've got time to win one.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
I value advanced analytics to a fault at times. I get this team compares to last in those metrics. This just looks like an inferior team to last year’s, by a substantial amount.
MSU is better without Ward. They win the BTT. I still see a Friday night trip up. A tough 3 seed draw results in a first weekend exit. The Sparty fans are insufferable until Michigan wins in the Big House.
I hate living in West Michigan sometimes.
I still see a Friday night trip up.
You're seeing something that has literally never happened under John Beilein - a first-round BTT loss.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
In any case, there was a time just a decade ago when our only shot at the NCAA tournament was to try to win the BTT tournament only to give up a wide open half court heave to OSU.
It took a lot of self-administered (with the aid of a properly licensed establishment) therapy to attempt to forget the game which you reference, and now that has come flooding back, so thanks.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
I really hate blaming officiating bc it's such a shit show sometimes but the discrepancy in free throws in our two games against MSU is bullshit.
First game: UM 17-20 MSU 24-30 Lost by 7
Second game: UM 5-7 MSU 24-30 Lost by 12
They shot 60 free throws between both games and we are one of the most foul averse teams in the country. It just doesn't add up. We shot 7 total free throws in game 2 and they were getting and 1 calls without even being touched on the way to the basket. The big ten has something against UM and I hope things change a bit in our favor once the comedian/masterbator is gone.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
I think Izzo simply bullies officials. Yes, I think they can be taken to task for allowing it to have that impact on them, but I don't think it is the BIG or anything like that. I just think Izzo wears refs down on an interpersonal level to the extent that they would rather just give MSU calls then get screamed at and demeaned.
The first game we had the foul and FT advantage. We gave them like 14 FTs in the final 2 minutes.
2nd game it isn't even a question
March 11th, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^
This is why I hate all the fancy stats bullshit. Something isn’t right with this team. They peaked too early, and even with Matthews they hadn’t been playing that well lately. Lose to Iowa Friday and lose the first game of the tournament. It will be interesting to see if MSU puts Ward back in the starting lineup. They are much better off not playing him at all.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
I am just asking to see if that is your real take. You think Michigan will lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament?
March 11th, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
He's all negative all the time. That's his shtick, though you probably know that. I don't mind negative posters, but there's never any nuance or attempt at an actual argument with Ty.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
Or another poster with 9 names....
March 11th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
"Something isn’t right with this team."
Nothing is wrong. They lost twice to a great MSU team. If Michigan had split and won a share of the B1G championship, people around here wouldn't be so bearish regarding the postseason. Seems everyone here completely forgot how good Michigan looked beating Maryland in their house.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Exactly, I wonder if all the Duke fans are saying the same thing since they lost to their rival twice. They are kind of in the same boat we are in right now.
I keep going back and forth with Duke. I mean, they lost their (arguably) once-in-a-generation talent to injury, so I get the losses. But they also have what? 3-4 top 20 guys in the freshman class this year, which still includes 2 top 5/10 picks, outside of Zion?
I think it comes down to it, at the end of the day, these are college kids, and they are just so hard to predict and to expect them to play at the highest level for 5-6 months every day.
But yes, I wouldn't be surprised if Duke fans were feeling salty about their team right now - though I still think they make the Final Four even without Zion.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
Personally, I just don't think Maryland is that good. I see them losing pretty early in the dance.
I see MSU as the one legit team UM has played since December and UM lost both times, and pretty much got smoked in the second half of both games.
In that middle 10 minutes of the half, from 15 min left to 5 min left, when you absolutely need to score, UM goes cold. No one seemingly can get their own shot. Iggy has the makings of a guy that can and will, but it just hasn't happened in the MSU games. Poole as the skillset but not the mental makeup (at least as of now). But as the team is currently playing, against the best team that is of national relevance, Michigan can't hang.
I think this Michigan team is a bunch of great 2nd and 3rd options. This is an argument I made before. This team with a senior Walton or Sophmore Stauskas would be a national title front runner. Hell, even a senior MAAR would make this team a title contender. They need an alpha dog leader and a guy that the team rallies behind.
Even with fancy stats saying one thing about the offense, the eye test says something different and the long and multiple scoring droughts each game add on to that. If the game is in 50s/60s, UM is near impossible to beat. If it gets into the 70s, UM just can't score enough.
It's hard to run Beilein's PNR offense with a point guard and a center who are not threats to pull up and stick it in your eye.
I love X but he ought to be a backup at UM.
This is interesting and I don't think you are far off. Our biggest issue is when Z decides he has to be a score first pg. It just won't work on this team. I read somewhere on here about Teske being in effective on the roll. That just isn't true. Z doesn't get the ball to him. He is open a ton.
The two times Tillman blocked his shot he should of being driven looking for the drop off somewhere. That is what he did at will last year and even in the Maryland game. Give me that Z back.
Now you could be a comedian but not a successful one. X should play backup point guard at Michigan. Whew, hot take central.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
I think it's important we secure a 2 seed by winning the BTT.
If we slip to a 3, I see us being in Duke's region. Which is not good if Zion is back.
I think winning in the semis probably gets us a 2 seed, doubt we have to win the whole thing.
I'd say it looks as follows:
- Lose in the BTT Quarterfinals on Friday (90% 3 seed, 10% 2 seed)
- Win on Friday, lose on Saturday (50% 3 seed, 50% 2 seed)
- Win on Friday and Saturday, lose on Sunday (90% 2 seed, 10% 3 seed)
- Win BTT (100% 2 seed)
Agree, right now Lunardi and the cbs guy (Palm) both have UM as a 3 with Kentucky the 1 and Duke the 2. The SEC imo is overrated, so Kentucky is actually ok as the 1, however the acc is legit. I don't buy LSU as a 2 but since they won the sec outright, they're a 2. But they're 13 in the net behind UM at 10.
We want to root hard for LSU to lose early in the SEC tournament, could bump them back down below us to a 3 if we beat Iowa and Purdue and they lose to Florida in their first game.
The only thing that matters is the NCAA tournament! Being bent out of shape over not winning the B1G regular season with unbalanced schedules isn't worth the time. Sure losing to MSU twice is disappointing but they got a gift losing Ward. Going in there and winning in that situation is a tall tall task.
People have forgotten how well Michigan played at Maryland a week prior. I wish any team luck preparing for Michigan on a days rest. Need Matthews back because the strength of this team is defense and he is 1B on this squad of top defenders. It also enables JB to put Poole on a less important player.
Lets hope our grouping in first weekend works out as far as match ups are concerned and go from there. This is the best time of the year and Michigan is right in the thick of it!
Where is that UVA/Michigan fan that wanted to argue with me over the value of student-athletes...
https://twitter.com/AustinKarp/status/1105167284610482178
I would rather see big Jon take a half a step in and hit a long 2pt shot than watch him bomb 3's that are 6" to 8" short..... time after time after time.....
I like our chances with Matthews back - he raises our defense significantly and gives us another legitimate offensive threat which opens up the floor. I think we would have won both games against MSU with Matthews in the lineup - we still only lost game #1 due to an unusually low Sparty turnover rate and game #2 due to an avalanche of foul trouble.
We still have issues with depth although both Castleton and DDJ are improving and have shown they can fill in capably. Our defense should amp up now that it's tourney time. Our offense still has troubles with consistency - no starter has been that consistent. Simpson and Teske still have their offensive limitations although they have made great strides in different ways - I still would prefer that others shoot threes. Brazdeikis is probably our most reliable all-court offensive threat. But everybody, if they play within themselves and take smart shots, can contribute. Matthews should look to drive first and only shoot open longer range shots. Poole needs to be more aggressive driving to the basket as well - he needs to shoot more and ignore the naysayers. He's still a much better bet from long range than Simpson or Teske, contested or not. He's so gun shy that he's deferring to others who are poorer options longer range. At the same time, he needs to make better decisions, driving and passing to the open guy when possible.
Michigan is good enough to beat anybody in the country. Unfortunately, we can also lose to many teams if the offense gets bogged down too much in a game or we get into foul trouble.
If we get Matthews back it’s huge. We’ve developed a little depth with Castleton and DeJulius. I like our chances to do well once we get out of Big Ten play. Could also make a run in the BTT but Iowa could be a challenge since they get so many foul calls.
If we end up in the bracket Lunardi has us in now, sweet 16 it is. If we end up with Duke and UK in our bracket, you wont even remember the bad officiating from the other night. The NCAA will have a stiffy for that rematch. Itll be similar to how they wanted Louisville to win it for good ol Ricky P and that player who broke his leg.
We already beat North Carolina this season.......
I'm so sick of all the comments as to how we were so much better early in the year and now, we are in decline.
There is a simple explanation. THE BIG TEN CONFERENCE!!
Top to bottom, the B1G is the best conference in the country. Penn State best top 20 ACC Virginia Tech. IU beat Big East #2 Marquette & Louisville, an ACC NCAA-bound team.
Michigan has wins over the ACC co-champion (by 17), the outright Big East champion (by 27) & the B1G co-champion (by 19).
The B1G season is brutal. Our co-champions have losses to the 7th place, 9th place (twice), & 11th place teams.
We will fare better once we get out of the B1G & play in the NCAA tournament. Elite 8 at a minimum & a realistic possibility of the Final Four.
GO BLUE!!
My Man! Way to lay it out there. Hard to say Elite 8 or final 4 before we see brackets but this is a sweet 16 squad as a floor. Buckle up and enjoy the ride! This is March!! No more praying to win a game or two in B1G tourney play to get in.
SEC is grossly overrated. I understand why in football but basketball is outrageous to consider that conference good. I hope we get into Tennessee's side. We match up beautiful with them and they don't shoot it well from outside either! Stay away from Gonzaga. Everyone wants to hate on them because of their conference but with Tille back this team has a very legit chance to win it all. They score at all levels and have a bench.
We get Matthews back by the weekend. Beat MSU for a third straight BTT Championship. Solidify a 2 seed and make it to a second straight Final Four. Simpson will be a man possessed and without home crowds/refs for opposing teams, unstoppable. Teams we will face in the NCAA Tournament will leave Livers/Poole/Iggy/Teske open for 3’s, which we will make.
The team won 26 games for a reason. They’re good. Don’t let a couple of disappointing losses to MSU (also a top 10 team) ruin your hopes for March.
March 12th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
There should be an NCAA investigation into a conspiracy by referees and/or bribes paid by schools (looking at you Izzo) to hurt UM chances of winning. Every loss we have involved terribly missed/called fouls, and nearly everyone seems to agree it is the refs, not our team.
Essentially we are a No. 1 seed but for the refs. Same thing in football - probably have a national championship or 2 if it wasnt for questionable/blatantly blown calls.
We have fame, notoriety, a massive alumni base with a bankroll, the most intelligent, successful, and highest earning students and national recognition (where sharty is lucky to land a pizza delivery job). So all the ingredients are there for a massive conspiracy out of jealousy.
Just frustrating to know we would likely be undefeated if it were not for referee extortion/bribery.
That's crazy talk.....
the calls sucked, but so did our execution.
gotta play the game