November 9th, 2018 at 5:45 AM ^

Well Wake beating NC State should help drag down the perception of the ACC. Clemson throttling BC may even help that cause as well because it may make the ACC look like the one team league that it is


November 9th, 2018 at 5:52 PM ^

It would be a lot better if BC just beat Clemson.  The only reason we care how overrated the ACC is, is that it makes Clemson's resume look better than it is. We really don't care if BC is ranked in the top 10 or the teens or the 20s or not at all if Clemson is behind Michigan, anyway.


November 9th, 2018 at 8:40 AM ^

I am just as offended as the next person...I think it's absurd actually, but is this a year it will even matter? Hypothetically...Bama, Clemson are in...even if Clemson and Bama's opponents are unranked, they will still be in going undefeated. ND wins out, they are in. Although they could drop to 4, if Michigan wins out, despite the head to head. I heard Vegas would have Michigan favored in a neutral site matchup with ND currently.  Michigan wins out, they are in. 

Now if Clemson loses this matters because these ranking prop up their weak schedule compared to Oklahoma. But their schedule is so weak, they probably won't lose.  


November 9th, 2018 at 9:15 AM ^

What it really says to me is that the committee is focused on getting the top four teams right while at the same time, not caring a whole lot about the rest. 

Honestly, the Big Ten's biggest problem is that so many of its teams have 3 or more losses.  Statistical models are great, but when you see a Penn State considered to be the 12, 8, and 7th best team in the country with 3 losses, the human element has a hard time reconciling those two facts.  What really needs to be added to this to get the full picture is to see where MSU, Wisconsin, and Purdue fall--the Big Ten teams that arguably should be included in the rankings, but are not.


November 9th, 2018 at 9:31 AM ^

NC State was the pick that stuck out like a sore thumb as soon as the rankings were announced.  I glanced at their schedule and saw that they had wins over James Madison, Georgia State, Marshall, Virginia, a terrible Florida State and Boston College, with losses to Syracuse and Clemson.  How did anyone in the world equate that to being the #14 team in the country?   Am I taking crazy pills? Northwestern and Purdue both have better wins than that, and neither of those teams deserve to be anywhere near the top 15.

Here are the S&P+ wins and losses for NC State:


#38 Boston College
#49 Marshall
#55 Virginia
#75 FSU
#118 Georgia State
FCS James Madison

Lost to:

# 2 Clemson
#58 Syracuse
#87 Wake Forest


November 9th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^

This is how they equated it to being #14:

They thought BC was the 16th best team.  They thought Syracuse was the 13th best.  And the loss to Wake Forest is irrelevant to Tuesdays ranking.

So that'd be a perfectly fair ranking to have them slightly ahead of the best team they've defeated and slightly behind the worst team they've lost to.

So it goes back to how overrated Syracuse and BC and basically the entire ACC is.  If you assume one team is better than they are, it muddles your view of the teams they've played.

oriental andrew

November 9th, 2018 at 9:46 AM ^

Interesting. I decided to expand this a bit and look at the CFP against the Massey composite rankings (https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm). 

Basically, the ACC shows up as the most over-rated conference, by far, with Syracuse (+16), BC (+11) and NC State (+9) leading the way. Texas (+7) and Wazzu (+6) are next. The other "overrated" teams are only +2 (Florida, nd) or +1 (Auburn) from the CFP. 

Note that Texas, BC, and Syracuse are not in the composite top 25, at 26, 28, and 29, respectively. 

Bama, Clemson, Michigan, Oklahoma, LSU, Kentucky, and Iowa State slot in at 0 deviation. 

On the under-rated side, the "close enough" ones at -1 are WVU and ohio state, and -2 are Georgia, UCF, and mich state. 

The most under-rated teams are Iowa (-3), Miss State (-4), Washington (-6), Penn state (-7), and Fresno State (-8). 

I'm just adding up all the deviations by conference, which is kind of a crude way to determine whether a conference is over- or under-rated since it doesn't take into account SDEV or anything, and only for conferences with more than 1 team represented (sorry, Independent, AAC, and MWC)....

ACC as a whole is most overrated with a total deviation score of +36

Big12 is next with total score of +6

Pac12 is right at 0 deviation, although that's deceptive because WSU is +6 and Wash is -6

SEC is pretty close, at -3 overall across eight (!) teams. Miss State (-4) is the only serious outlier. All others range between +2 and -2. 

Big10 is most underrated, with a total score of -13. Every team, except Michigan at 0 deviation, is at least a little under-rated in the CFP relative to the composite. 

EDIT: Note that the Massey consists of both human and computer polls/rankings.


Reggie Dunlop

November 9th, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^

I don't think it's anywhere near that complicated.

Don't look at your computer. Don't look at advanced stats. Don't look at anything other than WINS AND LOSSES.

Take your Group of 5 teams (UCF & Fresno) and toss them out for a second, focus only on the Power 5 schools and look at the rankings again:


Notice a pattern? The 0-loss teams are ranked ahead of the 1-loss teams. The 1-loss teams are ranked ahead of the 2-loss teams and the 2-loss teams are ranked ahead of the 3-loss teams.

I think it's just a very simple CFP committee who is not looking any further than skin deep - at least at that mid-level of the rankings which are pretty meaningless anyway.

Do you have 1 loss? Okay, you're up here. 2-losses? Okay, you're in the middle. 3 losses? You're in the back. The only teams bucking that very simple formula is 2-loss LSU who is bumped over a few 1-loss teams, and a 2-loss BC who is below a couple 3-loss SEC teams.

So maybe a little ingrained SEC bias because the only teams out of order by record are LSU, Florida and Miss State. But the ACC teams were all 2-loss teams essentially slotted between 1-loss and 3-loss teams.