Are OSUs struggles this year different than in the past?
Last year at this time OSU was a 2 loss team that had just lost by 31 points to Iowa and was very lucky to not have 3 losses after a miracle finish against Penn State. Seems eerily similar this year except they didn’t play a good team like Oklahoma this year. That team bombed Sparty 48-3 and then won out. I’m still in the camp of waiting for them to turn it around. What’s different this year for those who follow them more closely?
November 6th, 2018 at 12:00 AM ^
As hard is it might be to believe, he actually had of less athletic looking attempted slide a few weeks ago.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:09 AM ^
Expect Haskins to slant us to death on the first drive. I would imagine they’ll have some designed runs, although that didn’t work out too well for McSorley. Bringing in Tate Martell to run the offense is the only approach that makes sense. It’ll catch Don Brown off guard and allow them to at least attempt a power spread.
November 5th, 2018 at 5:36 PM ^
I don't know how to analyze the OP's question, but wow the comments from their fans were interesting to read. It was in one of the diary threads. There's a contingent who admit, unhappily, that Michigan is very good this year. Some, not all of these fans are dreading The Game; others think, with some justification, that tOSU will always show up to play Michigan. There's another train of thought to the effect that Meyer missing fall camp, has been slow to recognize personnel abilities and put them on the field accordingly, and that it's starting to come together now.
I looked for Michigan Monday but couldn't find it. There was another column by Gerd, 10 takeaways from Saturday's game against Nebraska, with some interesting nuggets. I didn't realize Haskins was noticeably avoiding contact. He must be taking some hits lately.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:32 PM ^
Hey man, we like to hear from opposing fans but you need to knock off the “scUM” bullshit.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
You've had some good posts. And you can call us scUM all you want on 11W, as childish as it is. But calling us scUM on our board and is getting you negged even though you have made some analytical posts.
November 5th, 2018 at 5:37 PM ^
The main difference to me is that OSU hasn’t really shown anything yet this season that makes you think they are truly a remarkable team, Andrew have shown 0 improvement game to game to make you think they have another’s gear they’ve can shift into if/when a close game is in question.
Meanwhile, UM has only looked better and better every game, and while they are a little prone to keeping the game closer that would be ideal, they have just been crushing people in the 2nd half.
Add these two things together and I’m as optimistic about The Game as I’ve been since 2011.
November 5th, 2018 at 5:43 PM ^
Two things. One, they are talented but have not played well, especially on defense. Two, the Meyer and the team don't look motivated. I suspect a lot of players are going to bolt for the NFL and Meyer will not be coaching next year.
As far as the match-up with us, everything we do well they do poorly. They know what's coming.
November 5th, 2018 at 5:52 PM ^
This might just be a down year for OSU. Since Urban Liar arrived a 2-loss season has been considered a failure.
I think MSU will give them everything they can handle next weekend and may out-tough their way to an upset victory.
Meyer is a great coach and they will be ready to play when we come rolling into Columbus. Keep in mind Michigan has not played well on the road this year.
November 5th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
I think Meyer's teams always look a bit underwhelming when they don't have a very good running QB. It's kind of the salt in his soup. Of course, underwhelming Meyer teams still tend to win a lot. It reminds me of Florida 2005 with Chris Leak but without Tebow yet. That team did win 9 games and they won a NC with Leak at starter in 2006 though having Tebow as an option probably made the difference.
Now, one thing to keep in mind for our game vs them is that their QB will absolutely run against us in situations where he would not run vs Nebraska, MSU or Purdue. It's to their credit that even after dominating us for such a long time period now, they don't let up in their efforts vs us. They always go all out.
And given the last almost 20 years vs OSU, I get a bit nervous when people write eulogies for them because they don't look like a fully armed and operational battle station for once...and then you realize they actually have exactly the same record as us and could still make the playoffs if they win out as well.
November 5th, 2018 at 6:08 PM ^
Disagree with the middle paragraph, on a couple points. First, I don't think Haskins can run, period. If they try some QB runs it will be with the freshman, Martell.
Second, other than 2015 I don't think they've really pulled out all the stops to beat us under Meyer. I think they've underperformed in a lot of the games. (Which makes it all the more infuriating that we've lost every time.)
November 5th, 2018 at 6:03 PM ^
Two big differences:
1. Their running game is mediocre, in large part because they have a QB who can't run and Meyer doesn't know how to handle that.
2. They are just plain bad defensively. Last year's Iowa game was a delightful outlier. This year's Purdue was in line with a lot of their other defensive performances.
November 5th, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^
Btw, I still fully expect osu to blow out msu
November 6th, 2018 at 9:25 AM ^
Imgur is that way
November 5th, 2018 at 6:07 PM ^
I just thought about the scenario where Ohio State, loses to Michigan State, Us, and then loses their bowl game.
That would be the best scenario for Michigan as far as recruiting goes and sweet sweet justice for those Fuckers.
November 5th, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^
What seems different to me is the stakes. If M had beaten OSU in 2016 or even last year, OSU would have been fine. But between the Zach Smith saga, Bosa’s departure, the season-long struggles, getting bombed at Purdue, and the cyst, now it feels like the bottom could fall out. OSU’s reign of recent dominance has been fueled by annual top-5 recruiting classes (and usually top-3). They have a lot of guys go pro early but recruit well enough to replace them with 5-star talent. They probably won’t be able to keep the log rolling if Meyer leaves, there are other good coaches out there but nobody they could realistically get has Meyer’s NC cred. What happens to that team if they aren’t landing top-3 classes anymore?
Even if Meyer stays, a loss to M at home could still put them in a downward spiral. As of now, Meyer is damaged goods who always beats Michigan—how will he do being just damaged goods? He may not be able to beat back the narrative that Harbaugh has overtaken him. That fan base won’t settle for 10-win seasons.
Still, winning cures all in a place like Columbus. If Meyer really is planning on staying, all he needs to do is win The Game and he can keep the wheel spinning for another cycle. So M just has to win this year. This is a rare chance to truly flip the script in the rivalry and M must take advantage.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:44 PM ^
I believe the talent is there for them, but we have to remember this are 18-22 year old kids who had to deal with all the hoopla of Meyer/smith right when the season was starting. To say that didn’t have some impact is crazy. I believe there are bigger issues behind closed doors down there than we know. I also believe their biggest issue on offense is you can’t run zone read if your qb is not a threat to run the ball. That and their linebacking core is not to their standard. That being said I believe that Michigan is just flat out the better team and it’s pretty late in the game for them to fix everything and there is a lot to fix. I think Michigan should just flat out torch them to be honest
November 5th, 2018 at 10:46 PM ^
Michigan was the better team in '16 and still lost.
This game scares me and it is absolutely critical for Michigan to win this one.
November 6th, 2018 at 12:12 AM ^
Michigan beat OSU. They lost to the 3 life long OSU fans that were allowed to officiate the game .
Without the big ten allowing this again, they have next to zero shot.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:23 AM ^
I agree Michigan had a great team in 2016 and we should have won, but this is much different. OSU was a 6.5 pt favorite in 2016. The early odds this year are Michigan as a 3.5 pt favorite. It’s the first time UM will be a favorite at Columbus since 2004!
We’ll see what happens the next two weeks, but if OSU loses to Sparty and has nothing to play for in our game, it’s gonna be a beat down of epic proportions!
November 5th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
The big difference is they really don't have a good defense. The running issues are also a departure, but this is a bad defense, not just a bad defense by OSU standards.
November 6th, 2018 at 7:41 AM ^
I listen to local radio here in Columbus, Mike Ricordatti(common man) said yesterday that his fear level was at a 10 for The Game. He even went as far as to say they don't have the talent on defense to stop us. Nice to see us striking fear into the hearts of buckeye fans/Urban and doing it for many years to come.
November 6th, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^
I totally get the excitement here, but isn't everyone getting a bit ahead of themselves?
Michigan has undoubtedly looked like the better team thus far -- and it's a very good reason to feel good about your chances -- but there are tons of other not insignificant indicators that Michigan will have to overcome to win:
- Urban has yet to lose to Michigan. Harbaugh has yet to beat Ohio State. Urban has a long-standing reputation for winning conference and national championships. Harbaugh has a well-established reputation for losing big games, particularly when there's a lot on the line. This is not insignificant.
- I think we'd all agree home field advantage is pretty important (not to mention Michigan hasn't beaten Ohio State in Columbus since Rashan Gary was 2 years old.)
- Ohio State is still the more talented team. I'm not saying this to ruffle feathers. I can point to a dozen threads from you guys two months ago saying that Ohio State's roster simply has more talent at this point than yours. Yes, being a better team is more important than raw talent, but everyone has seen what Ohio State is capable of when their talent aligns. And assuming the Buckeyes get their heads into the game (which I don't think will be a problem for this one), talent becomes more of a defining factor.
I do think it's reasonable to feel good about your chances, but it's not as simple as you're making it. Beating a Penn State team with less talent at home is extremely different than beating a more-talented arch rival on the road, who also happens to have had your number for the better part of 2 decades.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
Breaking news: Michigan fans on Michigan board overly excited. I never get these posts. And btw I agree with most of your comment, but what kind of response are you expecting here? We just ran over 3 ranked teams, everyone is excited. I'd still say, if you go through every thread, there is a fear of OSU for the reasons you mentioned. Although I will contest "Harbaugh has a well-established reputation for losing big games, particularly when there's a lot on the line." It's a media driven thing. A couple tiny breaks go Michigan's way and that narrative is never even mentioned at all.
BTW, I see you joined in 2016 specifically to argue about the spot. LOL.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
Ha... I don't remember joining or when I did. I actually was surprised to see I had an account when I went to log in. Very funny, though.
You're correct. My sentiment more addresses the steady contingent of those (like one of the first replies to this thread) saying OSU is, "marching towards a maize and blue buzz saw." These people seem to need a history lesson. Or at least a lesson on context.
It's also a huge leap to fall into the narrative (that is admittedly rampant over at OSU boards as well) about how there's been this seismic shift already for power in the Big Ten towards Michigan. Michigan has yet to qualify for a Big Ten title game, let alone win one, let alone mount a reasonable argument to have overtaken the program that has been the proverbial King of the Mountain for the better part of 20 years.
If Ohio State beats Michigan, and Ohio State wins the title game and reaches the playoff, the narrative goes right back to Ohio State being the conference alpha dog and Harbaugh not being able to finish the job.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
I agree with your 3rd paragraph. I have been somewhat surprised at how much loathing is going on in OSU land, including people conceding The Game. But I have taken that as mostly people emotionally hedging so if OSU loses for once they can say "well of course we lost, Michigan is way better" but if they win they can say "HAHA still can't beat us. Meyer uber alles. Harblow sucks."
I am expecting a very close game in 3 weeks between 2 really good games. Imo home field advantage give OSU the slightest of edges.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
I'll be the first to admit that I thought M's chances in Columbus were very low before the season starter, even lower after the ND game, and now only marginally better than 50/50 despite how well has played since then and how flawed OSU has looked.
That being said, these are shitty takes.
1. Harbaugh's supposed "reputation for losing big games" is nonsense. The dude won an Orange Bowl at Stanford, went to three NFC title games and a Super Bowl in the NFL, and won plenty of big games along the way. He hasn't won big yet at Michigan but this is only his fourth season and the closest thing he's had to a complete team. Moreover, if you're going to compare Harbaugh to Meyer, I think you have to admit that Harbaugh outcoached Meyer in the last two M-OSU games despite the outcomes. You don't have an advantage in coaching--and frankly with the way this season has been going, it may be fair to say you have a disadvantage.
2. Yes, home field advantage is significant. If the game was in A2 then I'd expect Michigan to win handily. But most of the time period you reference (i.e., "since Rashan Gary was 2 years old") has no relevance to this year's game. In recent seasons, M has been competitive in Columbus and probably should have won the 2016 game.
3. OSU may have more "talent" if you are going by star rankings. But between early departures, star rankings not reflecting a player's true ability, etc., the rosters are pretty damn close. Let's go position group by position group:
- If we're including McCaffrey, I'll definitely take Michigan's QBs over OSU's. If we're only considering guys available for this game, I still think Patterson is a better overall QB than Haskins. Is that because Patterson has more "talent" or because he has comparable talent and is receiving better coaching, I don't know. But OSU does not have more "talent" at QB.
- Dobbins is the most gifted back on either roster, in terms of speed, size, agility, and other physical measurables. But Higdon and Evans are the next two after him, with Weber being probably the fourth-best RB who will play. So OSU has 1 & 4, and M has 2 & 3. Is that an advantage in talent? If so, only a very marginal one.
- OSU has a bunch of high-4 and 5-star WRs in Campbell, Victor, Dixon, McLaurin, and KJ Hill (plus Austin Mack but he's out). But really the only one of those guys who has consistently lived up to his billing is probably Hill. The rest have made plays from time to time but have also been mistake-prone and have never been consistently dominant. M has guys with comparable "talent" in DPJ, Collins, and Black, plus a senior try-hard in Grant Perry who has been as productive as guys like Victor or Mack. OSU does seem to have more of these guys than M does, but they can't all play at once and M has enough. I'd call this position group a wash, even though personally I have more confidence in M's guys than I would in any of yours except Hill.
- I'll take Michigan's TEs over OSU's. Farrell is alright but he's not a weapon like Gentry. In terms of recruiting rankings, Gentry was actually ranked #174 in the 247 Composite, though as a QB, while Farrell was #191. M has also been getting production out of a couple lower-ranked guys (Sean McKeon and Nick Eubanks). I don't even know what other TEs play for OSU but I haven't noticed any; if you want to say your TEs are more talented because you have a bunch of five-stars on the bench, then fine. But you don't have an advantage at that position either.
- M has an excellent fullback in Ben Mason. He's a guy who excels as a lead or kick-out blocker, who can beast out first downs in short yardage or TDs in the red zone, and who's even shown some ability to catch the ball as a receiver. He was a three-star recruit but if you don't think he's talented, you don't know shit about football. I don't think OSU even has fullbacks on the roster.
- On the offensive line, I'm sure OSU is starting a whole team of 4- and 5-star recruits, but so is M--with the exception of Runyan Jr. at LT. Of course, it just so happens that Michigan's line is playing way better this season that OSU's line is. But I'll concede that OSU has more offensive line "talent" and that the difference in performance is related to coaching. That's still just one position on offense where OSU has more "talent," and even then I think any sane person would take M's line over yours in this years Game.
- Defensively, the only positions where I'd say OSU has better talent than M are free safety, 3T, and possibly SS--even though I'd rather have a more experienced guy like Metellus starting at safety than a guy with more physical talent (Pryor). I also think Okudah is the most "talented" corner on either roster, but he's not as complete a player as several other guys. Michigan has better talent at ILB, both DE positions, and Viper/Star.
Michigan's the better team this year. And unlike some past seasons, they aren't doing it with smoke & mirrors but actually have good, experienced talent on the roster. It's still going to be tough to win in Columbus. But you should rid yourself of this myth that you have better players and better coaches. You used to. You don't anymore.
November 6th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
I don't want to contest every bullet point here, but I'll zero in on one particularly indefensible one.
Dude, have as much confidence and love for your coach as you want, but to imply any possible measure of analysis would grant a 'coaching advantage' in Michigan favor's here is completely unfounded.
You can't base professed analysis on your gut feeling as a fan, and there isn't a single measurement of success that favors Harbaugh when compared to Urban.
Urban's overall record is better. His conference record is better. His record in rivalry games is better. His road record is better. His record against ranked teams is better. His record in bowl games is better. His head-to-head against Harbaugh is perfect.
Your primary argument -- that Harbaugh 'out-coached' Urban in the past two games -- is particularly dubious given Urban's team won both of those games!
In EIGHT seasons as a major college head coach, Jim Harbaugh has yet to win a single conference title. Not one. In the NFL, with three trips to conference title games he ended up with zero championships and a 1-3 record. And despite a win over your in-state rival this year, his record at Michigan in rivalry games has been a disaster.
Three times Urban has had the opportunity to win a national championship and all three times he finished the job. Average coaches can back into one national title. Only very, very good coaches ever get two. To get three, at two different schools no less, means you have a significant ability to create elite teams and win big games.
Sorry. Math just doesn't work, man.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:42 PM ^
There is no disputing Meyer’s accomplishments. He’s had a great career. But the question is whether he’s still as good a coach today as he was when he got those rings. I’m not sure he is. At the very least, he hasn’t been at the top of his game this season.
The facts are that Ohio State has looked like shit all year; they recently got embarrassed at Purdue while Meyer paced the sidelines doing the surrender cobra, and they didn’t look much better at home against Nebraska after a bye week. You argued above that OSU has more talented players than Michigan, so what gives? If Meyer is still such a great coach, why does his ultra-loaded team play like shit every week?
As far as Harbaugh, he’s proven himself in other ways. He built Stanford into a powerhouse, he won in the NFL (which even Nick Saban, who by your standards is clearly better than Meyer, couldn’t do), and now he’s restored Michigan to national prominence. Your lazy arguments about he hasn’t won this or he hasn’t won that mean nothing for his future prospects.
November 6th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
I think, big picture wise, the jury is still out here. They're different from the standpoint that the defense isn't as good as it normally is and the run game isn't as good as it normally is. But the talent is still there. If their talent can finally click, they could easily beat us. OSU has had so many times over the years where they just look really sluggish against meh teams, and then they finally put it all together when they play us.
Until I see OSU prove otherwise, I'm going to assume that they will have most, if not all of their issues resolved when they play us. They're going to kick it up several notches when they play us, and make no mistake: we're going to have to earn that win. Just have to hope like hell that we don't fall into any more injury mishaps over the next two weeks. I'd be okay with playing pretty vanilla the next two weeks if it means Shea stays healthy and is off the field by halftime. Especially against Rutgers. We NEED a healthy starting QB going into Columbus.