MGoStrength

January 18th, 2014 at 6:52 PM ^

A defense full of Morgans would be just above average, but it would never win UM a B1G title or even a division title for that matter.  A defense full of Morgans will never solo tackle a Braxton Miller or a Carlos Hyde, and probably can't cover Heuerman for that matter.  We have to look at OSU who is now in our division and if we can't get players to match up effectively with them then I don't see how I can get excited about them.  I don't want to take anything away from him.  He could be a good role player on a team with a bunch of talent around him.  He seems like a great kid, a hard work, and all that.  I have respect for him as a player.  But, from a pure talent standpoint I don't get excited about a player like that.  Gedeon and Ferns will be an upgrade and Peppers is on a whole other level.

Reader71

January 19th, 2014 at 12:33 AM ^

Gedeon and Ferns are better athletes, and if they one day learn to play with the discipline and know-how of Morgan, they will be upgrades. Until then, they are just good athletes with that double edged sword, potential. Look at Bolden; he's a better athlete, but not as good a player. Hell, look at Ross; a team of 11 Rosses would make a lot more plays but give up a lot more as well. Give me guys who do what they are supposed to do. I'll have a pretty damn good team. Supplement that with good athletes that can play and I'll have a great squad. But it all starts with playing correctly.

MGoblu8

January 18th, 2014 at 5:38 AM ^

I truly hope we can be a top 25 team next season, especially with our schedule. I think we have the talent to do so, but we have been shit on the road so far.

LSAClassOf2000

January 18th, 2014 at 6:39 AM ^

The previous version of this, if you were interested in Schlabach's estimation of the movement based on firing and hiring, is here (LINK). 

In this one, the Big Ten stacks up as follows - 

6) Michigan State

9) Ohio State

15) Wisconsin 

21) Iowa

So it seems that this is the Nussmeier Effect, as we were not ranked in his last series of picks. 

mGrowOld

January 18th, 2014 at 8:18 AM ^

Iowa at 21 is probably even more surprising to me than us at 24.  They are losing quite a bit, especially on defense (all three linebackers) so I'm not sure about that one.

IMO we need to win one of the three rival road games.  Just one.  The home schedule looks like revenge of the cupcakes so if we just one of the tough road games I could see us going 9-3 or even 10-2.  And that would be OK with me as long as the recruiting keeps loading up the cupboard.

Cold War

January 18th, 2014 at 8:41 AM ^

My outlook and expectations are a tick below yours. I think beating one of the three rivals is certainly doable but not a must. My guess is we get one.

I disagree about the home schedule. Penn State was our equal last year and we should both improve. Utah beat Stanford. Minnesota is a good team. Indiana scared the @#$% out of me last year. Also, at Rutgers and Northwestern aren't givens.

We should win each of the non-rival games, but there's plenty of room for a slip up or three.

My best guess is 8-4 but 7-5 or 9-3 are certainly possible. We're not quite in a place where I expect double digit wins or serious contention for a B1G title.

chewieblue

January 18th, 2014 at 8:42 AM ^

Just goes to show how little research "experts" do about each individual team before they write their BS. How anyone could analyze roster loss at Iowa and then think they might be better is beyond me. All these guys do is watch one game (bowl season), or read one article (UM hires Bama's OC) and they base everything on that. Iowa is there because they hung with LSU.

JT4104

January 18th, 2014 at 8:43 AM ^

Hokes next road win against a team with a pulse will be his first.

No sugarcoating that anymore....he has to do something on the road against a good team. Hell our last "good" road win was in 2010 in South Bend. That's 3 yrs of crap performances on the road.

I'll just hope and pray that Nuss is able to change all this and the offense shows up on the road for the first time under Hokes tenure.

mGrowOld

January 18th, 2014 at 9:16 AM ^

"I'll just hope and pray that Nuss is able to change all this and the offense shows up on the road for the first time under Hokes tenure."

I actually think it will.  Hoke, as we all painfully know now, gives his coordinators a virtual free-hand in their game and play calling.  And if you look back at all our "big game" road losses over the past three year you'll notice the common thread was that the coordinator who shall not be named called absolutely horrible games in all cases except Alabama and the Outback Bowl.

2011: 

MSU: Let's have Denard throw 40 passes in gale force winds.  Yea...that'll work

Iowa: Let's have our mobile QB go under center for the whole game.  Yea...that'll work

2012:

Notre Dame: Denard vs no blocking on the edge.  Yea...that'll work

Nebraska: Let's put our back-up QB at WR. Yea...that'll work

Ohio State: Vincent Smith up the middle.  Yea....that'll work

2013:

PSU: Tackle over. 27 for 27.  Yea...that'll work

MSU: No reason to prepare for a double a gap blitz.  Yea... that'll work

Iowa: No reason to make halftime adjustments.  Yea...that'll work

Kansas State: Nobody will expect back-to-back reverses.  Yea...that'll work

I think we'll do better on the road now - I really do.  There's hope.

Leonhall

January 18th, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^

improve on the o-line and d-line, we will win 9-10 games. Having a viable running game will help our offense IMMENSELY! We will play better on the road once we start running the ball better. For the past 2-3 seasons, nobody has respected our run game outside of Denard...then they didn't respect our passing game. We have been 1 dimensional on offense for the past 6 years.

MGoStrength

January 18th, 2014 at 10:18 AM ^

I totally agree, but simply bringing back a bunch of guys that couldn't get it done last year doesn't really inspire me that a ton of improvement will occur.  I guess I expect guys like Clark and Henry to improve, but Beyer is what he is, Pipkins is still injured, Mone is a freshman, etc.  I have trouble believing our d-line will be great unless Wormley makes big strides and Pipkins is healthy and does the same.  That's a lot to ask.  On the o-line I expect to see Kalis and Mags improve, but it's still hard to expect Bosch/Bryant/whoever to do much in that other guard spot as they are either unproven or true sophomores.  Also, how much can we expect out of a walk on center and first year starter at right tackle?  All in all, there's potential, but there's also a ton of question marks and that typically doesn't end well.  I expect a slight improvement, but not enough to be great.  I guess I sorta expect this is a 2 year project into something we can be proud of.

FreddieMercuryHayes

January 18th, 2014 at 9:20 AM ^

Ah sports...where the thing that happened last year will happen next year for sure.

As an aside, what does everyone think of MSU next year. In my opinion, not a top-5 team. Schedule upgrade and lose too much. Will still be good, but not that good.

BigBlue02

January 18th, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^

Well technically they did a little fading in one of those three seasons. I swear everyone forgets that they didn't win a home B10 game the year before last.

I think losing their offensive line is going to be the death of them. Their defense is going to continue to be good, but they just don't have enough talent to reload. They will still probably win 7 or 8, but I think that is the max.

Blarvey

January 18th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^

I can see them winning 10 games and compete for the division but I also believe they can realistically lose to Indiana with a pulse on defense. Most of their toughest games are at home but I can't see them winning all of UM, OSU, Neb., and @PSU, and Oregon is a tossup at best.

One to watch out for: Wyoming. I don't know much about Wyoming football but they just hired Craig Bohl who was 7-3 vs. FBS teams with North Dakota State.

An Angelo's Addict

January 18th, 2014 at 9:25 AM ^

I care about beating MSU and OSU next year. It seems every time we beat ND in the last 5-6 years everyone's expectations get sky high and then we lose out the majority of the second half of the season, save for 2011. I want to be in contention for the big ten title game and not completely abused by MSU

Cold War

January 18th, 2014 at 10:18 AM ^

We've been abused exactly once in our nine rivalry games under Hoke, this year at MSU, who had their best team in memory (I'm 55). In our other loss at MSU we were down less than a touchdown later in the fourth and Denard threw a pick six, IIRC.

It only seems like MSU abuses us because we have to live with people who think going to the Rose Bowl once a generation is something to crow about.

I dumped the Dope

January 18th, 2014 at 9:31 AM ^

Being highly ranked coming into the season is usually a bad thing in my mind.  I'd rather find some bright spots and continue to build on those as the season progresses.

Witness Ms. U last year.  They struggled early especially on offense and weren't in the top25 for several weeks but they kept it going for the full season.

Something has to change on the road and I'm not sure what.  One idea is instead of just trying to grind out some runs, instead throw several deep passes early with the idea that the DL might be a little cold without a lot of pass rush and a quick strike might quiet down the opposing fanbase.  Then come back with a grinding drive. 

Its a tough nut to crack as obviously the home field advantage is well established in the B1G. 

The team needs some good leaders on the field as well.  I think the D lost a little bit of that with Jake Ryan's injury.  Its not a knock against him as he had an amazingly fast recovery but i think its really difficult to lead the team from the sidelines.

If I can wish for two things it would be...more consistent lineup in the OL.  The revolving door of last year, for whatever reason(s) never let the players work together enough to get their teamwork going.  And on D, I'd like to see the rate of substitutions go down a bit.  With complete deference to Mattison, at various times it looked like the field goal unit was coming in on 2nd down.  I feel certain he had logical reasons for this, hopefully some of the surrounding conditions will have changed for the better by fall.

 

BlueVball8

January 18th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^

Until we win a big game on the road I would assume that all of those games are losses. Other than that I think we could drop one of the Rutgers, Northwestern, Penn State, or Utah games next year. So honestly I think 8-4 or 9-3 next year honestly and we wouldn't have any real quality wins which might put us at the end of the top 25.

JayMo4

January 18th, 2014 at 9:51 AM ^

Let's face it:  Our expectations for next season correlate quite strongly with how much difference we think Nussmeier makes vs Borges.  

I think the shift from all the pulling guard stuff to a lot more inside zone (featuring an interior on which everyone returns one year stronger and more experienced) is going to go a long way toward eliminating the constant tackles for losses problem we faced last year.  This offense is also likely to throw short on early downs more often than previous.  So we're likely to be looking at more 2nd and manageable vs 2nd and long.

I think that Nussmeier as a QB guru is going to help at least a little bit when it comes to Gardner's consistency and fundamentals.  I think Devin may always be a guy that is prone to make an oddball decision here and there.  But as far as making good choices from play to play, I expect to see improvement.  I also think some of the quick, short throws we'll see in this offense will help Gardner a lot.

I expect it's also an asset that we have so many returning players on defense.  I don't know that it skyrockets us toward dominance, because we've yet to really find a difference-maker on that side of the ball.  But there is a lot of returning experience on that side of the ball, not only in returning starters but with rotation guys.  We played a lot of freshmen and sophomores last year that are going to benefit from that experience now.

7-6 doesn't seem a likely outcome anymore, even with a few glaring question marks going into 2014.  I have trouble being overly optimistic, because last season beat that out of me.  But I think we can halve our number of losses without being dramatically better, just by cleaning up a couple of our glaring issues from last year (which I think Nuss+experience on D will help to do.)  I don't know that we're thrilled with 9-3, but that sounds about right.  Hopefully those three-ish losses don't all come in rivarly games.  I won't rule out a better finish either, though I'm not placing any bets til at least October this year!

M-Dog

January 18th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^

This^^^

I agree with your observations (summary: Nuss + Experience on D will help).  

The only part I don't agree with is that we would not/should not be happy with 9-3.  9-3, especially if one of the wins is @ OSU or @ MSU would be exactly the kind of progress we should welcome from this team in 2014.  It's all about trajectory.

 

JayMo4

January 18th, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^

Probably, but most teams lose at least one game they probably shouldn't have, including us this past season.  Given how we've performed vs OSU and MSU lately, I'd trade one upset loss for a win over either of those two.

 

Obviously, I'd rather win them all.  But 9-3 is my (approximate) prediction, not my best-case scenario.

uminks

January 25th, 2014 at 1:25 AM ^

Both the O and D will improve next season. Nuss will be a big improvement over Borges. Before Nuss I was looking at another 7-5 or 8-4 season in 2014. I think we got an instant 2 game pickup with Nuss, and now I predict a 9-3 or 10-2  record being very possible plus at least one road win against ND, MSU and/or OSU.