ESPN Top 25 for next year: We're ranked
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10305934/texas-longhorns…
MSU is 5, OSU is 13, Wisconsin is 14, ND is 19, Iowa is 21. And we're 24.
I know that the poll means nothing, etc., but I still found it interesting that people who are paid to write things about sports think we'll be in the top 25 to start the season next year.
January 18th, 2014 at 6:52 PM ^
A defense full of Morgans would be just above average, but it would never win UM a B1G title or even a division title for that matter. A defense full of Morgans will never solo tackle a Braxton Miller or a Carlos Hyde, and probably can't cover Heuerman for that matter. We have to look at OSU who is now in our division and if we can't get players to match up effectively with them then I don't see how I can get excited about them. I don't want to take anything away from him. He could be a good role player on a team with a bunch of talent around him. He seems like a great kid, a hard work, and all that. I have respect for him as a player. But, from a pure talent standpoint I don't get excited about a player like that. Gedeon and Ferns will be an upgrade and Peppers is on a whole other level.
January 19th, 2014 at 12:33 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 3:50 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 5:09 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 8:42 AM ^
We don't burn cowches just so we have an excuse to change them.
January 18th, 2014 at 5:38 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 5:42 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 6:39 AM ^
The previous version of this, if you were interested in Schlabach's estimation of the movement based on firing and hiring, is here (LINK).
In this one, the Big Ten stacks up as follows -
6) Michigan State
9) Ohio State
15) Wisconsin
21) Iowa
So it seems that this is the Nussmeier Effect, as we were not ranked in his last series of picks.
January 18th, 2014 at 11:21 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 11:25 AM ^
Good observation.
Yes, getting Alabama's OC should count for something. No matter how he really got here . . he's here.
January 18th, 2014 at 8:18 AM ^
Iowa at 21 is probably even more surprising to me than us at 24. They are losing quite a bit, especially on defense (all three linebackers) so I'm not sure about that one.
IMO we need to win one of the three rival road games. Just one. The home schedule looks like revenge of the cupcakes so if we just one of the tough road games I could see us going 9-3 or even 10-2. And that would be OK with me as long as the recruiting keeps loading up the cupboard.
January 18th, 2014 at 8:41 AM ^
My outlook and expectations are a tick below yours. I think beating one of the three rivals is certainly doable but not a must. My guess is we get one.
I disagree about the home schedule. Penn State was our equal last year and we should both improve. Utah beat Stanford. Minnesota is a good team. Indiana scared the @#$% out of me last year. Also, at Rutgers and Northwestern aren't givens.
We should win each of the non-rival games, but there's plenty of room for a slip up or three.
My best guess is 8-4 but 7-5 or 9-3 are certainly possible. We're not quite in a place where I expect double digit wins or serious contention for a B1G title.
January 18th, 2014 at 8:42 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 2:42 PM ^
I can't get used to this new positive MGrowOld post Borges exit.
Also, recruiting doesn't matter. Coach em up...Auburn...hurr durr.
/s
January 18th, 2014 at 8:22 AM ^
The end.
January 18th, 2014 at 8:43 AM ^
Hokes next road win against a team with a pulse will be his first.
No sugarcoating that anymore....he has to do something on the road against a good team. Hell our last "good" road win was in 2010 in South Bend. That's 3 yrs of crap performances on the road.
I'll just hope and pray that Nuss is able to change all this and the offense shows up on the road for the first time under Hokes tenure.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^
@Illinois in 2007? I can't remember if they were actually ranked at the time but they eventually went to the Rose Bowl that year.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:16 AM ^
"I'll just hope and pray that Nuss is able to change all this and the offense shows up on the road for the first time under Hokes tenure."
I actually think it will. Hoke, as we all painfully know now, gives his coordinators a virtual free-hand in their game and play calling. And if you look back at all our "big game" road losses over the past three year you'll notice the common thread was that the coordinator who shall not be named called absolutely horrible games in all cases except Alabama and the Outback Bowl.
2011:
MSU: Let's have Denard throw 40 passes in gale force winds. Yea...that'll work
Iowa: Let's have our mobile QB go under center for the whole game. Yea...that'll work
2012:
Notre Dame: Denard vs no blocking on the edge. Yea...that'll work
Nebraska: Let's put our back-up QB at WR. Yea...that'll work
Ohio State: Vincent Smith up the middle. Yea....that'll work
2013:
PSU: Tackle over. 27 for 27. Yea...that'll work
MSU: No reason to prepare for a double a gap blitz. Yea... that'll work
Iowa: No reason to make halftime adjustments. Yea...that'll work
Kansas State: Nobody will expect back-to-back reverses. Yea...that'll work
I think we'll do better on the road now - I really do. There's hope.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:35 AM ^
True, and the defense provided some respectable performances in the road losses in 2011 and 2012 (sadly, it's hard to say that for 2013). It generally was the offensive side that tanked on the road.
January 18th, 2014 at 2:32 PM ^
I'll go ahead and screenshot that post for handy reference. So much incompetence.
January 18th, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^
It was a lack of 'execution' remember?
January 18th, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
Does the Sugar Bowl count?
January 18th, 2014 at 11:28 AM ^
No, neutral site.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^
improve on the o-line and d-line, we will win 9-10 games. Having a viable running game will help our offense IMMENSELY! We will play better on the road once we start running the ball better. For the past 2-3 seasons, nobody has respected our run game outside of Denard...then they didn't respect our passing game. We have been 1 dimensional on offense for the past 6 years.
January 18th, 2014 at 10:18 AM ^
I totally agree, but simply bringing back a bunch of guys that couldn't get it done last year doesn't really inspire me that a ton of improvement will occur. I guess I expect guys like Clark and Henry to improve, but Beyer is what he is, Pipkins is still injured, Mone is a freshman, etc. I have trouble believing our d-line will be great unless Wormley makes big strides and Pipkins is healthy and does the same. That's a lot to ask. On the o-line I expect to see Kalis and Mags improve, but it's still hard to expect Bosch/Bryant/whoever to do much in that other guard spot as they are either unproven or true sophomores. Also, how much can we expect out of a walk on center and first year starter at right tackle? All in all, there's potential, but there's also a ton of question marks and that typically doesn't end well. I expect a slight improvement, but not enough to be great. I guess I sorta expect this is a 2 year project into something we can be proud of.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:17 AM ^
It's year 4 fergodsakes.win 10 games or Gtfo.
January 18th, 2014 at 1:33 PM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 9:20 AM ^
As an aside, what does everyone think of MSU next year. In my opinion, not a top-5 team. Schedule upgrade and lose too much. Will still be good, but not that good.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:32 AM ^
I don't think they'll be a top 5 team. Like us, it depends on their o-line. I think Ohio will be better than them. If we can run the ball well, we will beat them in lansing.
January 18th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^
Well technically they did a little fading in one of those three seasons. I swear everyone forgets that they didn't win a home B10 game the year before last.
I think losing their offensive line is going to be the death of them. Their defense is going to continue to be good, but they just don't have enough talent to reload. They will still probably win 7 or 8, but I think that is the max.
January 18th, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^
State has shown time and again that they can MacGyver together functional O-Lines out of humble parts. I'm not counting them out.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^
I can see them winning 10 games and compete for the division but I also believe they can realistically lose to Indiana with a pulse on defense. Most of their toughest games are at home but I can't see them winning all of UM, OSU, Neb., and @PSU, and Oregon is a tossup at best.
One to watch out for: Wyoming. I don't know much about Wyoming football but they just hired Craig Bohl who was 7-3 vs. FBS teams with North Dakota State.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:25 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 9:35 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 10:18 AM ^
We've been abused exactly once in our nine rivalry games under Hoke, this year at MSU, who had their best team in memory (I'm 55). In our other loss at MSU we were down less than a touchdown later in the fourth and Denard threw a pick six, IIRC.
It only seems like MSU abuses us because we have to live with people who think going to the Rose Bowl once a generation is something to crow about.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:30 AM ^
I just hope we execute.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:37 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^
We will always be young, don'tcha know.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:31 AM ^
Being highly ranked coming into the season is usually a bad thing in my mind. I'd rather find some bright spots and continue to build on those as the season progresses.
Witness Ms. U last year. They struggled early especially on offense and weren't in the top25 for several weeks but they kept it going for the full season.
Something has to change on the road and I'm not sure what. One idea is instead of just trying to grind out some runs, instead throw several deep passes early with the idea that the DL might be a little cold without a lot of pass rush and a quick strike might quiet down the opposing fanbase. Then come back with a grinding drive.
Its a tough nut to crack as obviously the home field advantage is well established in the B1G.
The team needs some good leaders on the field as well. I think the D lost a little bit of that with Jake Ryan's injury. Its not a knock against him as he had an amazingly fast recovery but i think its really difficult to lead the team from the sidelines.
If I can wish for two things it would be...more consistent lineup in the OL. The revolving door of last year, for whatever reason(s) never let the players work together enough to get their teamwork going. And on D, I'd like to see the rate of substitutions go down a bit. With complete deference to Mattison, at various times it looked like the field goal unit was coming in on 2nd down. I feel certain he had logical reasons for this, hopefully some of the surrounding conditions will have changed for the better by fall.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:37 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
Until we win a big game on the road I would assume that all of those games are losses. Other than that I think we could drop one of the Rutgers, Northwestern, Penn State, or Utah games next year. So honestly I think 8-4 or 9-3 next year honestly and we wouldn't have any real quality wins which might put us at the end of the top 25.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:51 AM ^
Let's face it: Our expectations for next season correlate quite strongly with how much difference we think Nussmeier makes vs Borges.
I think the shift from all the pulling guard stuff to a lot more inside zone (featuring an interior on which everyone returns one year stronger and more experienced) is going to go a long way toward eliminating the constant tackles for losses problem we faced last year. This offense is also likely to throw short on early downs more often than previous. So we're likely to be looking at more 2nd and manageable vs 2nd and long.
I think that Nussmeier as a QB guru is going to help at least a little bit when it comes to Gardner's consistency and fundamentals. I think Devin may always be a guy that is prone to make an oddball decision here and there. But as far as making good choices from play to play, I expect to see improvement. I also think some of the quick, short throws we'll see in this offense will help Gardner a lot.
I expect it's also an asset that we have so many returning players on defense. I don't know that it skyrockets us toward dominance, because we've yet to really find a difference-maker on that side of the ball. But there is a lot of returning experience on that side of the ball, not only in returning starters but with rotation guys. We played a lot of freshmen and sophomores last year that are going to benefit from that experience now.
7-6 doesn't seem a likely outcome anymore, even with a few glaring question marks going into 2014. I have trouble being overly optimistic, because last season beat that out of me. But I think we can halve our number of losses without being dramatically better, just by cleaning up a couple of our glaring issues from last year (which I think Nuss+experience on D will help to do.) I don't know that we're thrilled with 9-3, but that sounds about right. Hopefully those three-ish losses don't all come in rivarly games. I won't rule out a better finish either, though I'm not placing any bets til at least October this year!
January 18th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
This^^^
I agree with your observations (summary: Nuss + Experience on D will help).
The only part I don't agree with is that we would not/should not be happy with 9-3. 9-3, especially if one of the wins is @ OSU or @ MSU would be exactly the kind of progress we should welcome from this team in 2014. It's all about trajectory.
January 18th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
January 18th, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
Probably, but most teams lose at least one game they probably shouldn't have, including us this past season. Given how we've performed vs OSU and MSU lately, I'd trade one upset loss for a win over either of those two.
Obviously, I'd rather win them all. But 9-3 is my (approximate) prediction, not my best-case scenario.
January 25th, 2014 at 1:25 AM ^
Both the O and D will improve next season. Nuss will be a big improvement over Borges. Before Nuss I was looking at another 7-5 or 8-4 season in 2014. I think we got an instant 2 game pickup with Nuss, and now I predict a 9-3 or 10-2 record being very possible plus at least one road win against ND, MSU and/or OSU.
January 18th, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
If Hoke doesn't go 9-3, atleast, he should be fired. 9-3 buys him another year.
January 18th, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
If we could figure out a way to play the fighting chickens 12 times, I'd be pretty confident in 9-3.