The Breaks Comment Count

Ace

Terran Petteway, who'd already poured in 14 second-half points, blew past Nik Stauskas with disconcerting ease. While Zak Irvin helped in the paint to force a difficult scoop that caromed off the backboard, nobody boxed out Leslee Smith—who, per hoop-math, has 20 putbacks this season on 72.7% shooting at the rim.

Smith's tip-in attempt lingered on the rim for an eternity before rolling off the mark. Two subsequent swipes at the ball by an indistinguishable assemblage of arms couldn't get the ball closer. We know that feel.

Derrick Walton drilled an running halfcourt shot to finish the first half. He also plowed over Smith on a baseline drive to lay in the eventual winning points; on another day, when the fates aren't as favorable, that's a charge.

On a night when 2013-14 Jordan Morgan played the role of 2010-11 Jordan Morgan, the fates cast Leslee Smith as Jordan Morgan vs. Indiana, with Walton playing the part of an early-arriving Ben Brust. We've all seen this show before, and I prefer this director's interpretation.

-------------------------------------------

Nebraska is not last year's Indiana, of course, nor are they Wisconsin, and this 71-70 win featured plenty to be concerned about. A road win in the Big Ten, however, is rarely a thing of beauty. For every poorly-defended Nebraska pick-and-roll, Michigan executed one on the other end. For every blown switch, a beautiful set out of a timeout. For every blown call on Nebraska, one against the Wolverines. The three crucial free-throw misses late were canceled out on the scoreboard by an end-of-half prayer.* These plays offset until a victor had to be determined, and in that critical final minute, Michigan benefited from the breaks of the game.

-------------------------------------------

If Michigan could've done something, anything, to stop the pick-and-roll in the second half, this would've been a relatively easy victory, as the Wolverines played efficient offensive basketball from wire to wire—1.21 points per trip with a 68.0 eFG%. Glenn Robinson III had one of his best games as a Wolverine, confidently knocking down a triple from the wing on Michigan's first possession and going on to score 19 points on 9/12 shooting. He hit multiple pull-up jumpers, got to the hoop off the dribble, and made one of the biggest plays of the game when he purloined a rebound from an unsuspecting Smith, corralled the ball at midcourt, and broke free for a one-handed throwdown to give Michigan a late two-point edge.

The player most representative of this game was Jordan Morgan, without a doubt. Working the pick-and-roll with Stauskas like he once did with Darius Morris, Morgan dropped 15 points on 7/9 shooting, slipping screens with impeccable timing to get wide-open looks at the rim; he even knocked down a pivoting baby hook for good measure. However—whether due to Michigan's defensive strategy, a mid-game foot or ankle injury that briefly took him out of action, or simply being too slow to move his feet—he struggled to stay between Nebraska ballhandlers and the basket on defense, beat to the rim time and again.

On Nebraska's final possession, John Beilein lifted Morgan for Zak Irvin, allowing Michigan to switch on every screen regardless of who set it for whom. That worked initially with Irvin challenging Petteway's shot; it almost backfired completely when nobody was in position to grab the rebound. This is still a team looking for the right answers, and they haven't found all of them quite yet.

One thing is certain, and that's Nik Stauskas' role as alpha-dog. After a relatively quiet first half, Stauskas asserted himself down the stretch, not only as a shot-maker but as the team's best passer; his four assists don't convey how well he moved the ball, especially off the high screen. Yes, he uncharacteristically missed a pair of free throws with five minutes to play. He also scored 12 points on 5/9 shooting, turned the ball over just once while facilitating much of the offense, hit a dagger of a three-pointer prior to that trip to the line, and hit a late layup to give the Wolverines a two-point lead.

After a rough stretch, Caris LeVert provided a solid offensive performance of his own with ten points (5/8 FG) and five assists, creating buckets for himself and others with his now-signature herky-jerky forays into the paint. While it wasn't a totally clean game from him—three turnovers and some poor on-ball defense come to mind—his assertiveness with the ball and ability to find the open man were encouraging given his recent outings.

Walton, meanwhile, may have finally asserted himself as the no-doubt starter at the point. The halfcourt shot was more luck than anything else, but he played within himself, dishing out four assists to just two turnovers, spotting up when need be—drilling a key corner three early in the second half—and playing solid perimeter defense in addition to hitting the game-winner. Spike Albrecht noticably struggled to contest three-point shots in his eight first-half minutes and was limited to just four minutes in the latter stanza. Nebraska was 5/11 on three-pointers in the first half, with three of those coming against Albrecht. The Huskers went just 2/9 the rest of the way as Ray Gallegos (3/5 in 1H, 1/5 in 2H) couldn't get clean looks over Walton.

-------------------------------------------

There are adjustments to be made, no doubt; Michigan's bigs got caught in no-man's land far too often trying to defend high screens, and the guards let their man get around them far too easily on many a drive. Despite this, however, the Wolverines escaped with a road win; their 3-0 Big Ten record has them tied atop the conference standings with Wisconsin and Michigan State. In a season when, like last year, the conference champion could be determined by a few bounces of the ball, Michigan caught their breaks at just the right time.

With trips to Madison and East Lansing looming later this month—not to mention hosting a revitalized Iowa squad in between—the team held serve when they desperately needed it. Don't be surprised if we look back on this game as a turning point after the season plays out.

-------------
*Before anyone takes this too literally, I know that's not how it works. Go ahead and post "3-9 is UNACCEPTABLE" now, because you are fundamentally right that Michigan shouldn't miss that many free throws; just remember to conveniently ignore that the Wolverines are 57th in the country—third in the Big Ten—at making them, and free throws are worth one point regardless of the time on the clock.

Comments

jsquigg

January 10th, 2014 at 3:48 PM ^

I thought Nebraska hit a lot of unbelievable shots and played really hard.  What do Michigan's free throw rankings have to do with the fact that 3-9 is awful?  One of the reasons M didn't win more comfortably was their inability to hit free throws anywhere close to as good as Nebraska.  It is what it is and I'm not flipping out about it, but their free throw numbers for the year don't change the fact that they quite often haven't been good enough from the charity stripe.

charblue.

January 10th, 2014 at 3:51 PM ^

I figured last night's matchup given it was the Husker opener at their new basketball palace was going to make things difficult for Michigan. Typically, in these games, if you don't find a way to make stops and get some easy baskets, second-half separation is an uphill climb. 

Nebraska has depth and talent. They have streaky shooters and all of their guys were on during intervening stretches.  You can lament Michigan's interior defense on the pick and roll, and allowing guys to get to the rim, but these guys were making threes, repeatedly. Nobody wants to foul a three-point shooter. Michigan never had more than a six point lead in the second half and it could never get control even when it was creating some loose balls. 

Nebraska hit all their free throws and Michigan didn't, which is one reason why that game teetered on the brink. Stauskas missed a pair and Walton missed three of four in the early going and then the and-one on his driving bucket. Clearly the defender in that sequence was late in getting position and sort of shifted his body weight to absorb the contact and make it look like a charge instead of a block, which is what it was. Good call. 

Any win on the road in the Big Ten is a great win. 

At this point, Michigan has a bunch of guys who seem willing to take the reins and take the shot when needed. And Walton clearly is demonstrating he wants to lead. That drive to the hoop while the Huskers set up in a zone and weren't ready for his baseline move was both strong and decisive. This team is going to have problems with Wisconsin, Ohio and the Spartans because they don't rebound well and, if they don't defend better, the kind of shooting percentage Nebraska enjoyed, will not permit any last second heroics. 

Having more than one guy who can step up and is willing to do it is important because as we've seen there is nobody who can be counted on as the leading scorer every night. So getting 17 points from the center spot and a third from the guards and forwards, balances the scoring and keeps the defense honest. Every game is a learning experience and winning makes the experience easier to digest, especially on the road. Great win. 

 

Nitro

January 10th, 2014 at 6:10 PM ^

Agree with your analysis of the charge/block call.  Smith shifted his upper body toward the baseline after Walton went that direction with his jump.  Since Smith didn't establish a claim to the area where the contact occurred prior to Walton's movement toward it, the contact was initiated by Smith, so it's a block.  There definitely would have been contact in the area Smith did have claimed had Smith not shifted his body, but it's hard to tell how much or whether he was there in time.  Even if he was there in time, there's a good chance there wouldn't have been enough contact to merit a charge call without the upper body shift.

travelingblue

January 10th, 2014 at 4:15 PM ^

Ace - with a headline like that you should have thrown in the word "Blow" (and made sure to capitalize it) somewhere in the post. And remember breaks can make you a superstar.

break it up, break it up, break it up!

Nick

January 10th, 2014 at 4:49 PM ^

I want to address this.  I dont think its as simple as saying he got blown by.

Nebraska runs a screen the screener action.  Irvins man sets an off ball screen on GR3, freeing Robinsons man to go set a ball screen for petteway on Stauskas.

In theory, this is intended to eliminate the hedge help and allow penetration, because GR3 would have to fight over the off ball screen just to get in position to defend the ball screen and may not get to the right spot or be off balance. However, Michigan switches everything as they often do on last possessions.  Irvin doesnt quite communicate in time and is caught too low to help on the action.  

Its easier to see in the highlight vid on mgoblue.com than in the gif above, but if you pause it when petteway crosses the 3pt line, Irvin should be a few feet higher and wider and thus petteway would either have to retreat dribble or pass it off.  

I actually thought Stauskas did a good job of locking and trailing around the screen, which never actually got set, but he had to take that angle around the screen in anticipation of it.  Its clear by Niks positioning that they are forcing him to use the screen, rather than pushing the ball handler baseline, so Nik is expecting help middle.  It just never comes because of Nebraskas off ball action made Irvin a split second late.  Good play drawn up by Tim Miles, and it works in part because it makes Irvin, a wing, the big man defender in a ball screen, a role to which he is largely unnacustomed.

Nick

January 10th, 2014 at 6:45 PM ^

if they were only switching off ball screens, or if they were switching on ball screens as well.

Regardless, Irvin wasnt in position to switch and prevent penetration or to hedge, whatever th assignment was.  I wish someone could ask Beilein about that play so we can properly allocate blame and credit.

But yes, Stauskas was weak at the end, and shoulda made more effort to box out Smith once it was clear petteway was past him and Smith was his man on the roll.

Deltroit3030

January 10th, 2014 at 5:01 PM ^

The biggest issue I have with Morgan is hands. I feel like my 5 year old nephew has better ball handling skills (and he just slaps the ball up and down with an open hand). I don't want to knock Morgan too bad, but just making a point... I'm afraid to use him too muh because I know he's going to get burned here and there with turnovers that should be easy baskets. It's frustrating that things haven't changed much with him even after all these years in the program. He must just not be capable of being any better at it.

Nitro

January 10th, 2014 at 5:51 PM ^

This was a good win. Nebraska was undefeated at home, and the announcers noted that their losses had come against teams with a combined 87 winning %. They'd likely be tourney team in nearly every other mid or top level conference. That being said, we continued to give up far far far too many looks from 1-2 feet. Whether it's because we give them a step to the basket on drives, give up offensive rebounds, let them get deep post position, or don't defend the pnr well, it's a huge problem that will prevent this team from reaching anywhere close to it's potential going forward.

Nitro

January 10th, 2014 at 5:57 PM ^

Also, Morgan's looked strikingly better than he ever has the last two games, and GRIII looks like he's becoming a next level player right now -- we need to get the ball in his hands as much as possible.

TIMMMAAY

January 10th, 2014 at 8:55 PM ^

 Don't be surprised if we look back on this game as a turning point after the season plays out.

I hope that's the case, but don't tempt the gods like that. *knocks on wood, throws salt over shoulder*

MGoGrendel

January 10th, 2014 at 10:01 PM ^

*... just remember to conveniently ignore that the Wolverines are 57th in the country—third in the Big Ten—at making them, and free throws are worth one point regardless of the time on the clock.

PAproudtoGoBlue

January 11th, 2014 at 12:24 AM ^

From here forward I will be referring to Jordan Morgan as McMorgan and Jon Horford as McHorford.  They really are doing the things that Mitch did minus running the fast break as the ball handler. So much respect for McMorgan and his career at M and I don't think a player has improved year by year like McHorford.  

samdrussBLUE

January 12th, 2014 at 2:15 AM ^

Nik has missed consecutive free throws multiple times this year. He, and the team, will have to do a better job at the line going forward