Five things to take from this: We must recalibrate our expectations

Submitted by Lordfoul on
Please realize that I have not yet read any of the discussion here on this board since the game ended.  I have heard some tidbits of what was said in the presser.

By no means is this an unacceptable loss.  If we take away the emotional aspect of getting beat soundly by our little brother two years in a row, this was almost a given.  We were playing a team with decent talent, a potent offense, and a desperate need to win.  Our opponent had to have this one, and they played like it.  But still...

I hate losing to State.  It is humbling in a way that is just too personal.  So much smack has been spoken, just within the family, and over so many years... I will be hearing about this one for a while.  There is nothing to say back this time.  Michigan was thoroughly outplayed and had no right to even be in this game.  The Spartoons managed to drive 130 yards for their first touchdown.  State was killing themselves in true Sparty-NO! fashion, taking killer penalties, gifting Michigan the ball with regularity, and it almost cost them.  Never underestimate the power of the Forcier.

Five Things:
  1. The fake punt.  What the hell was that?  I gather that the decision was made by Zoltan.  There has been no worse conscious decision made in recent Michigan Football history.  Yes, there was a lot of game left to be played, and yes, we held them to a field goal which they probably would have managed after a punt from there anyways.  That was still a move that should never be allowed to happen.  That is why I don't blame Zoltan for that.  I understand giving him the read on punts and taking what openings he sees, and bad reads will happen.  At the same time there should be set-in-stone limits to this, like when we are punting from our own 17.  On fourth and inches.  I put this squarely on the coaches.
  2. I don't know whether to defend GERG or throw him under the bus.  It is even more obvious that he is dealing with a completely inept secondary.  The way I see it he has two options to deal with this: 1) Drop everyone, Safeties, CBs, and LBs, back into coverage and rush only the line or 2) Blitz like crazy.  It seemed to me that getting shredded by Cousins led to GERG trying 1 for most of the game and Cousins killed us with his feet.  1 is the path of no contain.  Our defense had Sparty bottled up (or Sparty was killing themselves with penalties) for 3rd and 7, 3rd and 8, 2nd and 25(!), 3rd and 8 again and we would drop into almost a prevent defense only to get burned by Cousins.  Only late in the game did we start to go to 2 and it made a big difference in our effectiveness. 
  3. We can all be excited that this Michigan team has no quit in it.  No two score lead is never safe against us and that is going to be exciting for the rest of the season because we are certainly going to face many more 4th quarter deficits with this crew on defense.
  4. Two more streaks of note went down in this one IIRC.  The long streak of no 2 years in a row to Sparty, and I believe this was our first overtime loss.  They both felt strange, ya know?  Oh, well - Wipe the slate clean and all that...
  5. Congratulations to Michigan St for getting pumped up for the game and handing our asses to us.  They played very well and deserved the win.
Hats Off:
  • Tate Forcier - Wow.  Can this kid get any more exciting?  It seems like it would get boring always bringing him up for accolades but he is just amazing.  Stay healthy young man.  You could yet be the best we have ever seen in a Michigan uniform.  Super Clutch. 
  • Kovacs -  I am officially behind this guy 100%.  No, he is not a great option at safety.  He has an amazing ability to time blitzes, shed blocks and make tackles though.  I almost could see him as a linebacker if he could put on some muscle.  Just an amazing performance for a walk on.
Don't Let George Clooney Near These Guys (DLGCNTG): 
  • Zoltan - Sorry to say it but Zoltan was not good in this game.  Many short punts and of course the bad read.  I still love the guy though.
  • Woolfolk - This guy may be fast, but he can't tackle at all it seems.  Kovacs is not a good safety, but he is better than Troy. 

Looking Ahead:

This game illustrates further that we should be happy with 7 wins and a bowl game this year.  Iowa isn't unwinnable, but it isn't likely that we take one at night in Kinnick IME.  I think we will probably be at 5-3 after Penn St and looking for 2 wins the rest of the way.  Those wins look like Illinois and Purdon't (nice choke job boilers), with Wisky a possibility as well.  I hope we don't have anything riding on The Game as with nothing to lose, I think we win that one.


Have a safe week everyone.  Go Blue!  Beat those Hawkeyes!

Comments

Heston_The_Great

October 4th, 2009 at 10:23 AM ^

Losing to MSU is embarrassing, b/c we are a better school and a better program. It should be embarrassing to lose to most teams on our schedule. Sure you will hear about it this week. However, you must remember that the reason these spartan clowns are so vindictive is b/c they could not get into Michigan. You should feel sorry for them as they yearn for our acceptance. This game is low on my concern list. We will be fine. Michigan is back. Go Blue!

bluebyyou

October 4th, 2009 at 11:04 AM ^

I was pleasantly surprised that the game turned out as close as it did, given how our D was virtually non-existent for three quarters. Training with Barwis has helped immensely. As porous as the D was for the 40 minutes they were on the field, they still had something left at the end of the game (we were doomed once Tate threw the I). What if we actually had talent and experience in our secondary and at LB. Some things are hard to explain, like the at least four dropped passes. Stuff happens. Tate needs support - can't do it on his own. I see Denard as an afterthought at this point in time. Simply put, until he can throw, people will key on him for the run when he is in the game - captain obvious. You can't put him in the same backfield as Tate except for a rare trick play - neither he nor Tate can block. So far, I have started wondering about his ability to catch a ball. They did try him on punt receptions but I believe that didn't work out well. He often screws up snaps from center. In short, he is the best backup we have, but that may not be saying much. The jury is still out. The Sultan's decision to go for it on 4th down was stupid beyond belief - can't even blame the coaches as they assume a modicum of smarts on the part of the players. That, obviously, was missing yesterday. I think we have a decent shot against Iowa. If the game is close near the end, don't bet against us. PSU was the only convincing victory Iowa has had to date. They should have lost one game and barely won yesterday. Is Penn State so good? I'm not so sure. Keeping my fingers crossed. Go Blue!

ATrain32

October 4th, 2009 at 1:02 PM ^

Defense was non-existent? Yes, they gave up yards, but what was the half-time score? How do you account for Sparty only scoring 20 points in regulation? I agree with ya on the talent points and also the Barwis observation. The boys do seem to step up defensively late in the game. My main thought for you to consider is that given how poorly the offense played early in the game, I find it amazing to think that MSU didn't blow us out with how they were dominating at some points in the game. I don't believe we have a very good defense either but I do think they play hard and given what they have talent-wise, they are doing alright.

a2tarheel

October 4th, 2009 at 11:06 AM ^

Ever since the Indiana game, I've been saying he is way too slow to be a good safety, but he has been playing "linebacker" better than our current linebackers now. I think it would be effective to move him permanently there to linebacker and put somebody else (Williams, anybody?) who can actually help out the corner that isn't Warren. With Kovaks out, nothing against him, but it seems like we are playing a 3-5-3 defense, which is setting us up to get burned by the pass quite often.

Coldwater

October 4th, 2009 at 11:08 AM ^

I thought the inability to get any sort of running game going is what killed Michigan. The offensive line got owned by the MSU dline. Carlos and Brandon had no room at all. It was very disappointing to see how flat Michigan came in this rivalry game. How could the offense score 2 TD's in the final few minutes but play so inpet for the first 55 minutes? Where was the urgency? I thought RR gave up size for speed on defense. Then way does the defense look so slow? Did MSU WANT IT MORE???? Who knows, but everyone seems to think so.

Durham Blue

October 4th, 2009 at 2:04 PM ^

It appeared MSU was in some sort of prevent zone in the secondary because Stonum was wide open and had time to turn, run and make a juke on the first tackler. Then it was pure speed to the end zone. MSU got conservative on their play calling on offense and gave us the ball back with enough time to roll down the field on mostly out plays and ham 'n egg QB scrambles. The urgency on O was there throughout the game but the like you said their D line outplayed our O line. And the MSU D was fresh every series because we couldn't get their O off the field for three quarters.

BlueGoM

October 4th, 2009 at 11:11 AM ^

"Woolfolk - This guy may be fast, but he can't tackle at all it seems. Kovaks is not a good safety, but he is better than Troy. " First of all his name is spelled Kovacs. Then you say you're behind him 100% you say he's not a good safety. Huh? Check the stats - Kovacs had 17 tackles. I'd call that a good performance. Second Woolfolk hurt his shoulder in the first half and aggravated his injury when he collided with Warren after the second interception. I think that contributed to his missing the tackle in OT, and the fact that he's not a very big safety. And lastly, I've said it already 3-4 times, defense was not the problem in this game. The offense's complete inability to do anything for 3 and a half quarters was the problem.

Lordfoul

October 4th, 2009 at 5:54 PM ^

I am behind Kovacs, and thanks for the spelling assist. It is eye popping to see that he had 17 tackles. I really like him as a starter, even at safety, and would hope that he continues to develop. He seemed to shine brightest near the LOS to me at least.

U of M in TX

October 4th, 2009 at 11:40 PM ^

"Check the stats - Kovacs had 17 tackles. I'd call that a good performance." Tackles aren't the only measure of a good performance. Obi Ezah led the team in tackles coming in, but how many of the first four games would you say he had a good performance? Not many, if any. On the other hand, Kovacs looked better than the average defender, and I hope he continues his improvement, but only time will tell. Tackles don't tell the whole story.

Not a Blue Fan

October 4th, 2009 at 11:18 AM ^

As an outsider looking in, it seems pretty obvious that the issue on defense is simply a lack of good players. That's pretty blunt, but I think it's true. There are talented guys there - fast, big dudes. But they're either blowing assignments, missing tackles, or just playing poorly. Those are things that bad players do. No amount of scheming is going to to fix those things; until the recruiting and depth pick up on D, one would think it will remain an issue. Offensively, the skill position guys look fairly competent (Forcier has a lot of potential, but still makes freshman-y mistakes; he is a freshmen, that is what they do). The OL did a reasonable job, but pressure was an issue. This team could be pretty good once that gets sorted out. I think Purdue and Illinois are definitely winnable; Wisky is a possibility, depending on how the wind blows. They're not particularly great, but I think they're about as good as ND or MSU. Of OSU, Iowa, and State Penn, I think State Penn is the most likely win (and not terribly likely). PSU's defense is really overrated as a result of playing some bad teams - you guys could put up some real points on them. Iowa and OSU...well, stranger things have happened, but I don't see any way that you win these games without either incredible flukes or serious injuries to the opposition. 6-8 wins with a bowl is pretty much where the realists (both fans and haters of UM) pegged you guys, and that's looking fairly likely. Still, I'd consider that a successful season, particularly if it's accompanied by the emergence of a legitimate QB and running game. At least that sets the stage for next year.

ATrain32

October 4th, 2009 at 12:56 PM ^

Thanks for the input. Very reasonable thoughts and observations. I appreciate the outside perspective. One thing that drew me to the diary was the title mentioned recalibrating our expectations. I think most expectations before the season were in the 6-6/7-5/8-4 range. I'm not sure that yesterdays game has done anything to change that. We knew before the season, the defense would be thin and might struggle. We also had some questions about the O line and whether it could sustain it's late season growth from last year. The QB play has gone beyond expectations, but it takes time to put it all together. We are an exciting work in progress. If you have been following the team all year long, I'm not sure how you could be thinking something beyond 7-5/8-4. Yeah, I'll admit a few passing thoughts of grandeur, but in reality, to rise from 3-9 takes a lot of things to change in a positive way and go right. Because the team started out 4-0, I'll agree it's hard not to buy into the hype machine. After all, there we were ranked and Tate/the offense showed skills that sizzle. But Brian and other site gurus have been right on with their analysis so far. Reading between the lines, expectations needed to be tempered by the need for time to get all the pieces in place. Some pieces have not arrived yet (eg recruiting needs). I think the leap is for real and I'm glad we are moving in the right direction but we are simply not entirely 'back' yet. Looking ahead, Purdue and Illinois would seem likely candidates for wins #6 and #7 (DSU is #5). But I'd agree that we are unlikely to win against OSU and PSU (though we have a small chance, right)? Wiscy is looking tougher than it did a few weeks ago. Iowa? After the Arkansas St. performance, I am wondering a bit. Sure, the Hawkeyes probably slept walked through the Red Wolves game, but I think we do have a shot there. Iowa has not been very impressive to this point outside of their Happy Valley visit. The hope is that we can play to 8-4 (obviously, would love better) but we'll see.

Clambaequious …

October 4th, 2009 at 11:25 AM ^

The defense gave up 20 points in regular time. That is less than against the other BCS opponents we played. It would have been even less if the offense generated anything. Sure the LBs missed several plays and can improve. However the D generated 3 turnovers and gave the O plenty of opportunity. I think we had negative rushing yardage going into the 4th quarter and Oline was dominated all day. We can't expect to win away with 6 points after 55 minutes. This game falls right in line with our recent history of 1st away games. Chalk it up as experience and if the Oline plays better the boys can still win in Iowa Shitty.

MontuckyYooper

October 4th, 2009 at 12:01 PM ^

If you would have told me before the game that we'd give up 20 points in regulation, I'd have felt pretty confident. Yes... we have serious issues on D. But I thought we played pretty well considering the time of possession disparity. You can't ask your (already suspect) defense to go out and stop a team 3/out after 3/out. As far as the offense was concerned, I thought the line of scrimmage was clearly controlled by MSU all day. As much as it gets overlooked, this is where football games are won and lost. Run or pass, we were getting pushed around. Tate got flushed consistently when he tried to throw from the "pocket", and was getting chased around when he rolled out. And on the run plays.... We can have all the athletes in the world at the skill positions, but our success at UM has ALWAYS been based on dominant offensive lines.

Braylon 5 Hour…

October 4th, 2009 at 11:52 AM ^

This is a tough game I think for our fans to get a grip on, because I think, in a lot of ways, everything was the problem...you're not supposed to have as many problems as we did today and still be in a position to win the game- 1) Questionable coaching decisions a) Whatever you want to say about Mesko's decision, in either case, the Rodriguez scheme either called for a fake punt or gave Mesko the option to run a fake there himself-I think a lot of people agree that is a dangerous way to run your system especially deep in your own territory. b) Putting Denard in there down 2 TDs on the road for a complete series... I know that Denard needs experience and time to grow and develop, but someone who understands offensive success as well as Rodriguez does should know that whatever he did was likely to be ineffective when he doesn't present a threat of passing vertically. When we are down in a game, I don't see a reason to EVER take the ball out of Tate's hands, the way he has performed this year. It was clear that it was taking him a little while in this game to get comfortable, but I think we all have to be confident that the more snaps Tate gets, the more plays he's going to make. Early in the game he couldn't make too many plays running or passing, but in the big drives in the 4th quarter he made everything happen. 2) MSU time of possession People who say the defense was not a problem today are just plain wrong. I think you can say that our defense didn't prevent us from winning, and all season have been just good enough to find a way to come up with stops after being dominated for long periods of time. However, how do you expect your team to find a rhythm on offense when they have the ball 1 minute in the 1st quarter? I think as Michigan fans (other than last year), we are accustomed to having a talent level on offense and defense that is on par with the best teams in the country. We just were forced to worry about whether or not we'd underachieve. Now we are consistently overachieving and if any number of things went a little better yesterday, we could have won ANOTHER game we had no business winning. All things considered, it's weird rooting for the underdog as a Michigan fan but it's been a fun ride and I hope we'll have some more things to cheer about this season.

The FannMan

October 4th, 2009 at 12:01 PM ^

IIRC, Brian pointed out that GERG has to play a form of prevent and can't blitz b/c we have a walk on at corner and Warren is good, but not Charles Woodson. We always have to keep the safeties back to help the corners, espcially Floyd who doesn't have speed to run with Big Ten WRs. That means the LBs have to take the middle and the flats in passing downs. If we had blitzed LBS, the safties would have needed to cover the TE/RBs. This leaves Floyd on an island with Dell or Cunningham. That has big play all over it. So we play a form of prevent, where the safties give deep help to the CBs, and the LBs cover the TEs or RBs. This leaves a ton of time for the QB and opens up space for a scramble. It requires the QB to execute and, if he does, they move the ball. BUT, the D tightens near the red-zone where there is less field to defend. You can't get beat on a 40 yard go route when the ball is on your own 20. This lets the D play more agressively and generally leads to FGs. See also, Indiana. The good thing is that we really need either one stud corner, or for BooBoo to live up top his potential. As long as we don't have to worry about a corner for whom man coverage = TD, we can blitz our asses off. I really think we are one player away.

Ali G Bomaye

October 4th, 2009 at 12:34 PM ^

It seems like the fake punt option would almost be better on 4th and 3-5 to go than 4th and inches. With more yardage to go, the defense will be a lot less conscious of the possibility of a fake. And since Z is running from 15 yards behind the line on a trick play anyways, chances are that either he'll get stuffed for a loss (in which case the distance to go doesn't matter) or he'll gain 10+ yards.

MichiganAggie

October 4th, 2009 at 12:53 PM ^

-Great player near the LOS. -No hip fluidity or speed to cover WRs/TEs Still, for a walk-on, he's playing great and you can tell he plays his ass off. I hope RichRod rewards him with a scholarship, even if it's just for the spring

Don

October 4th, 2009 at 12:57 PM ^

Mike Barwis can't turn modestly-talented linemen into All-conference unstoppable locomotives, nor is he going to be able to take slow-footed DBs and LBs and turn them into Woodson and Harris. A linebacker who doesn't have a nose for the football and consistently takes bad pursuit angles might be in tremendous shape, but at the end of the day he's still mediocre. This is not a criticism of Barwis or his methods, but I think some have assumed that his regimen would create obvious physical advantages on the field in terms of strength and speed, over and above basic talent differentials. I don't see any of that happening, at least not yet. Certainly there was no apparent strength advantage that our OLs displayed yesterday against the MSU defensive line, regardless of how many weightlifting records they set in the offseason.

MGrad

October 4th, 2009 at 1:10 PM ^

Nice post. I think that the team is still realistically projecting towards a 7-5, maybe 8-4 level for the year. Outside of Forcier, Warren, Graham, Roh and possibly both Browns, we really have not had a lot of individuals that have performed to their upper thresholds. Others have been solid, but not spectacular. Still others have been less than solid. It was a great start to the season, but like so many have acknowledged, it takes time to build things up when the shelves are relatively bare. There are some very tough games remaining on the schedule. I think that most fans will be satisfied if we can get a > .500 season in the books and have a top 10 recruiting year.

NickUmich

October 4th, 2009 at 4:40 PM ^

I have been greatly impressed with Tay Odoms this year. His stats are just decent, they aren't great or anything. But man, that kid was a fumbling machine last year. This year he has made numerous clutch catches (The catch against Indiana with the ND player all over him and the Indiana catch in particular). And he has held onto the ball. Stonum could learn a thing or two from him. I recall one fumble by him that we recovered. I don't remember him dropping any easy balls. But maybe I missed a drop by him yesterday...everyone and their mom were dropping balls yesterday. He also has thrown some great blocks for a small wide receiver to open up big plays. Anyway, I think he deserves some props.

Maize and Blue…

October 4th, 2009 at 1:14 PM ^

Who in the Big Ten has looked all that impressive? Iowa has struggled against Ark. St. and N. Iowa and beat PSU. Can I say there is no way we win that game- Hell NO! Iowa's O is adequate and their D is good but, has always struggled with speed. I wish Molk was back for this one though. What has PSU done? Decent D and struggled mightily on O and we get them at home. DState should be a nice warm up for the Nittany Lions. Then we have Illinois who has been awful, Purdue at home which is a likely win. Wisconsin one of only three teams we beat last year. I know they are undefeated now and its on the road but, they don't scare me either. That leaves the Buckeyes (our MSU game) I suspect after the shellacking they put on us last year we're gonna be real hungry. I maintained heading into last weekend that I would have rather faced a 4-0 or 3-1 Sparty team. At 1-3 they would be extremely dangerous because beating us made their season.

tecknogyk

October 4th, 2009 at 2:21 PM ^

My expectations haven't changed from the start of the season. I still believe we'll be 8-4 or 9-3, but could see 7-5 happening as well. I'm happy with just having a winning season this year.

Blue in Yarmouth

October 5th, 2009 at 9:33 AM ^

Don't go TOO far out on a limb there buddy. We are 4-1 presently so you have 4-8, 5-7, 6-6, 10-2, 11-1, and 12-0 left that you could select. In short you just covered 30% of all outcomes with your predictions.......Not really prophetic IME. If people are going to make predictions why not make "A" prediction instead of 3 or 4. Just sayin'

tomhagan

October 4th, 2009 at 2:26 PM ^

Well... This team had enough talent and ability and focus to make a come back from 2 TDS down late in the 4th quarter....to overcome stupid mistakes (fake punt, dropped passes, fumbles, bad snaps, blown coverages, missed tackles, coaching errors)... they played their worst possible game....and they were still in it at the end.... expectations havent changed: 9-3 or bust!

Lordfoul

October 4th, 2009 at 6:10 PM ^

It is great to see such passionate discussion of Michigan Football. It is also impressive to see such a wide array of compelling arguments. It seems that MGoBloggers always have thought provoking ideas to share. You all rock.

Tater

October 4th, 2009 at 6:53 PM ^

UM lost to a team they had no business losing to. Now, they have to beat a team they have no business beating to make up for it. PSU, anyone? Wisky? Since I already jinxed PSU by predicting them for the NC game, I will now predict that Iowa will make it to the NC game undefeated out of the Big Ten. I hope this helps Saturday.

Tater

October 4th, 2009 at 7:00 PM ^

The entire team and coaching staff should be upset: for twenty-four hours. I would hope that they are all extremely pissed off that MSU made their entire season by beating them. I am glad, though, that RR mentioned the "24-hour rule" in the presser. I am a firm believer in that rule, and the only thing I ever liked about any MSU coach was that George Perles used to use it. Let them celebrate victories and grieve defeats for 24 hours, and then get back to work. There is a lot of season left.

ajscipione

October 4th, 2009 at 7:15 PM ^

My expectations are the same now as they were at the beginning of the season. In fact, with the win over ND, I think it set the tone for a decent season. 8-4 is what I am hoping for. M will continue to improve as the season progresses. P.S. Tate is the best young quaterback in the country and you just have to love the way he leaves it all on the field.

champswest

October 4th, 2009 at 10:17 PM ^

UM is currently 1 game ahead of my pre-season expectations. I looked at the schedule and saw 5 confident wins and figured they would upset someone else (probably Illinois) in addition, making them 6-6. Which I would be fine with. I had them 3-1 through the first 4 games and then losing to MSU to be 3-2 right now. I also have them losing to Iowa next week. So since they beat ND, I could now see them going 7-5, and that would be fantastic. I think that it will be at least next year before we can expect a really good season (i.e. 9-3 or 10-2).

MGoBlog Fan

October 4th, 2009 at 11:11 PM ^

...I think 8-4 is well within reach for UM. Wins: Delaware State (obvs), Penn State (have not looked impressive), Illinois, Purdue. Losses: Iowa, Wisconsin (their D-line and linebackers are better than MSU's and they have the capability of the same long, clock-chewing drives that MSU was), and, unfortunately, Ohio State. My guess is UM gets over the hump next year, beating MSU and OSU and going 11-1.

Muttley

October 4th, 2009 at 11:11 PM ^

Urban Meyer. 2006 SEC Championship game. On the way to the Gator's National Championship. Down 4 (21-17 not 10-6) after 21 straight Arkansas points, Urban Meyer faced a 4th and 10 at his own 15. See the Florida drive starting at 8:33 of the 3rd. The result happened to play out favorably for the Gators. 4th and 10 at FLA 15 Jemalle Cornelius rush for 17 yards to the Fla 32 for a 1ST down.

NoNon

October 5th, 2009 at 9:47 AM ^

and good point, but with it being 4th and only inches in the State game, do you think that the State defense had more of a inclination to believe that there would be a possibility of a fake than Arkansas who surely thought no coach in his right mind would try for a 4th and 10? It should also be taken into consideration the way both fakes happened. Cornelius is a fast wideout, Zoltan can't compare to that speed.