BBrown: Predicting The Hand Decision
I know there is already a forum topic about Hand's commitment but this is a little bit different. A few weeks back I posted a forum about "Predicting Commitments" and cited the responses that I get from recruits as a pretty good barometer for how they are feeling as their decisions near. Unfortunately, that method has held true again.
Granted my Crystal Ball pick for Hand on 247 was Michigan, but I should've went with my unfortunate personal evidence as opposed to my homerness and public perception. I wanted Hand at Michigan badly, as I'm sure every one who comes to this site did. It seemed like Michigan was where he was going. Experts all around the country had predicted him to choose the Wolverines. His high school coach talked to me very regularly.......but Da'Shawn himself didn't.
Da'Shawn kept a lot to himself obviously and I convinced myself that he was simply being private in not talking to me anymore. In August he and I talked on the phone for a long time. For a month or so after our long interview he and I would text occoasionally just to see what was going on with his recruitment. Then it stopped. He wouldn't respond anymore and I just assumed (hoped) that it was because he was shutting down the interview process a little bit as his decision date neared. It turns out that there was a little more to it than that.
Hand chose Alabama and honestly, I can't really say that I blame him. Hindsight of course is always 20/20 but looking back now, I should've seen this coming. I'm not saying I knew anything for sure because I didn't. Clearly most people didn't. But over the last month or so, Da'Shawn wouldn't respond to me anymore and that ended up being quite telling.
I am going to do my absolute best from now on to use only my head and not my heart, and also to try and not be influenced by other guys that really know what they are talking about. That is a very hard thing to do when you have guys like Tom, Steve Lorenz, Mike Farrell, Clint Brewster, Steve Wiltfong, JC Shurburtt, Eleven Warriors guys, and many, many more all predicting Hand to choose Michigan.
Good luck to Da'Shawn.
November 14th, 2013 at 4:01 PM ^
You are overreacting. Yes, the last two games sucked, but they're two games.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:32 PM ^
Tennesee is getting a great class, they stink. Ole Miss stunk a couple years ago and got a mega class. Sometimes it's about selling the possibility of success, playing time, etc.
The key is showing improvement and unfortunetly Michigan isn't doing that right now.
November 14th, 2013 at 6:28 PM ^
I don't know that you even need to "show improvement." You just have to convince recruits that the team will be good when they're there. We have a very young team, so it's not impossible to sell a bright future.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:45 PM ^
Which one is worse? Not getting Hand or Messi's injury.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:01 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 5:47 PM ^
for dong punches
November 14th, 2013 at 2:41 PM ^
Hindsight is 50/50
November 14th, 2013 at 3:45 PM ^
not sure if serious.
November 14th, 2013 at 4:59 PM ^
"You're either right or you're not'
I am not serious.
Was a reference to Parks & Rec.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:41 PM ^
Man, November hasn't been the worst month ever. OctoNovember has been the worst month ever.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:43 PM ^
We're talking about teenagers' choices for college. You'll be right sometimes. You'll be wrong sometimes. Some guys will talk to you but go elsewhere. Some guys won't talk to you but will go to Michigan.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:44 PM ^
So, assuming I'm understanding this right, we lost out on Hand because you couldn't get him on the phone? This is all your fault.
#icreatemyowncausation
November 14th, 2013 at 2:44 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 2:47 PM ^
Which Brandon? Or both?
November 14th, 2013 at 2:45 PM ^
Fully expect MM to end up in the south or at MSU.....at this point this program is a tire fire. No getting around that at all.
Have to hope the light goes on in 2014 for A LOT of kids in this program or this recruiting won't mean crap.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:53 PM ^
Our OFFENSE is a tire fire...the defense is actually quite good. Take away the poor situations they've been put in, plus the whole ON THE FIELD ALL DAY thing, and I'd say they're borderline excellent.
Guys still want to play for Greg Mattison.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:03 PM ^
Our D has definitely had to deal with poor field position in a lot of games, but it hasn't really been on the field that much. Our opponents' average time of possession is 27:32. In our worst defensive performance of the year, Indiana, our D was on the field for 21:26.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:32 PM ^
Mattison is solid, but the D hasn't exactly been what we expected either. Giving up 34 points a game over the last 4. When's the last time Bama did that over a 4 game stretch?
November 14th, 2013 at 2:49 PM ^
Shorter Brandon Brown: "I just did not execute."
November 14th, 2013 at 2:50 PM ^
Do you know if he recently responded/chatted to any Alabama recruiting dooods? Would be interesting to know.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:53 PM ^
I honestly think he was pretty quiet with everyone recently so again, it's not a perfect formula. I'm just going by the communication he and I have had.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:51 PM ^
and update your text and phone records on a weekly basis for entry into my database, which will graphically show and statistically determine the probabilty of an 18 year old's decisions about football
November 14th, 2013 at 2:51 PM ^
Thanks Obama/Borges! /s
November 14th, 2013 at 2:57 PM ^
If there's one thing being a Michigan fan has taught me, it's this: never, never, NEVER predict/assume what you want to happen is going to happen.
Embrace the self-hate. Embrace the darkness. Only by becoming its master can you hope to survive.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:57 PM ^
It happens. You've done more than most of us when it comes to recruiting and without appearing like a balding 40 year old guy in his boxers drooling over Youtube clips.
November 14th, 2013 at 2:59 PM ^
November 14th, 2013 at 3:02 PM ^
I believe our last communication was maybe mid-late October. Somewhere in there.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:05 PM ^
Brandon Brown, you just don't help yourself.
First off, I would have waited a day before posting this. I don't think it's something people want to hear about right now. Secondly, you don't come out and say you were wrong even though you were completely wrong. You say oh I was exactly right, but because it's Michigan I picked them.
I get what you are saying, but your post bastardizes the point that you should have actually listened to your own method rather than your Michigan fandom.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:11 PM ^
I totally agree with what you are saying....which is why I already said it. Every Michigan recruiting guy got it wrong.
When I posted the original "Predicting Commitments" topic, that got blasted too. I was just trying to make a point that i SHOULD have followed my own method, as you called it. Instead I let other influences (80+ predictions, early impressions from Hand himself, current impressions from his coach, public perception) sway my belief.
Sometimes there is just no winning. Message boards will be message boards.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:26 PM ^
The reason you can't win is because you're not TomVH.
This message board is as opposed to new things as Al Borges' playbook.
Oh wait, I have more.
This message board is as opposed to new things as...
the O-Lines willingness to keep DG upright.
the team is to gaining rushing yards.
the coaches are to substance in the pressers
the offenses ability to get the ball to Dileo
Funk's ability to teach anything
Fred Jackson having a realistic view on what a RB's abilities truely are
November 14th, 2013 at 3:57 PM ^
You're not realizing it's the way you presented the information that screwed it up rather than the actual content. If it makes you feel any better I didn't knock you in the original Predicting Commitments topic....at least I don't think I did. :)
November 14th, 2013 at 4:24 PM ^
No it is the content. This whole theory is all about him and how teenagers respond to his twitter/text messages. Where's the perspective? Isn't he the professional?
November 14th, 2013 at 7:55 PM ^
It's a dark day and everyone is feeling shitty. Don't beat yourself up, take a lessons learned and keep doing your best. Let not it happen again though or this board will make sure your on the train with Al. He should be one of the targets of today's venom.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:06 PM ^
I used to be a fun-loving Wolverine fan. Then I started visiting this website. I started noticing bad things. Then I started following recruiting. Now I hate Michigan, myself, and all of you too.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:13 PM ^
Go back to your video game, this will blow over soon enough
November 14th, 2013 at 3:36 PM ^
This is resonating with me.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:15 PM ^
Kudos to you for looking for trends - just remember there are no absolutes in recruiting.
Good to admit when you are wrong and seek independant, first-hand source info, in general.
Staying objective and not getting caught up in the recruiting echo-chamber are noble goals.
Keep up that mentality and you'll be getting more right than your peers.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:21 PM ^
It's hard to go against guys like my boys here at MGoBlog, Tom, Lorenz, Brewster, Shurburtt, Wiltfong, and other respected dudes, even if I have gotten solid information on my own.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:47 PM ^
No one expects you to be right all (or most) of the time. We just want you to pass along the info (and the source) when you hear it. That's the most we can ask for.
Besides, if you were right most of the time, we'd take you on the next flight to Vegas and throw around some money.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:56 PM ^
Take that next step. Not trying to toot my own horn, and you already knew this, but as I suggested in the last post, contact the other recruiting analsyts and find out if they're talking with the recruit in question.
I'd be very interested to know if McDowell is talking to Sparty's recruiting guys. They may not tell you, and some analysts for some teams may lie like obama or misdirect, but over time you can build a network of people you trust. You can tell them and they can tell you. That multiplies the power of your theory (if correct).
November 14th, 2013 at 5:05 PM ^
Doubt you'll get much info directly from calling other recruiting analysts directly, but reading their stuff rather than just michigan-centric stuff will provide a little more objectivity. Every fanbase is delusional when it comes to recruiting, but you can tell more about a recruit you think you have a great shot at from what he says to another team's analyst than your own, I would say.
One of the things I don't like about recruiting info on the Michigan blogosphere is that it is very tilted toward Michigan-centric views.
November 14th, 2013 at 5:00 PM ^
Only way your voice will stand out is if you have something different to offer than the 'roundup' of other views.
That doesn't mean be different just for difference sake - that is transparent and tiresome - but it means think critically and don't just repeat what the another guys say. They're often just repeating each other's rumor/guess, often with a homer-slant.
I think the biggest thing missing in recruiting coverage are a)objectivity and b)humility. It's OK to say the info comes from other guys and you can't validate it yourself. Put that in one column of info, but makes the info you DO get first-hand in a higher priority category.
Keep up the good work.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:17 PM ^
There will be many dead after I'm done with Call of Duty tonight. The mic is getting turned on and everyone I play again will feel my wrath. They will know my pain. They will be shot, stabbed, and blown to fucking bits. God damn recruiting BS.
November 14th, 2013 at 3:48 PM ^
Relax... someone needs some chamomile tea and a warm bubble bath asap!!
November 14th, 2013 at 3:57 PM ^
Agreed. Time to do some trolololol-ing on snipers with a peanut butter and jelly C4 sammich.
November 14th, 2013 at 6:51 PM ^
Consider your ass sniped before you get to me.
Haha jk I don't play but if I did I would be a sniper and my friends and I argue about what is best: Sniping vs. Crazy Insane Run Around Shooting Everything Dude - if there was no inbetween that you could choose. Anyways, TGFJ (Thank Goodness For Jabrill)!