John Beilein Can't Make His Players Older And Other Revelations From The Past Four Games
The past four games have been a rude awakening for a Michigan basketball team once thought to be the best in the country. That same team is now looking up at three teams in the Big Ten standings, not to mention swiftly falling from contention for a one-seed.
The first two losses of this 1-3 stretch were understandable in both outcome and form; losing competitive games at Indiana and Wisconsin—while getting royally screwed by the officials in the latter—is understandable for a team of any caliber. Last night's debacle in the Breslin Center, however, took the cracks exposed in the three prior games and turned them into gaping crevasses.
In an effort to figure out how much to panic, how much to not, and where we go from here, here's a collection of thoughts on this recent stretch.
JOHN BEILEIN CAN'T MAKE HIS PLAYERS OLDER
I shut off my laptop last night after getting multiple tweets asking if John Beilein was at least a big part of the problem. As far as I can tell, Beilein made one critical coaching error last night: removing Trey Burke after his third foul, which sparked a quick 5-0 Spartan run early in the second half. At that point, however, State had already spent the game imposing their will on Michigan, and with the way the game played out it's hard to imagine Burke being in the game for that two-minute stretch would've changed the outcome.
The problem is not John Beilein, who's done a masterful job of putting this team together and coaching them into an offensive juggernaut. The problem is that he can't make his players any older, and now we're seeing why that's an issue. As it turns out, getting experience on the fly in the toughest conference in the country makes for some growing pains; there's no knowing how five freshmen (six if you count Max Bielfeldt) are going to respond when thrown into critical roles in adverse situations.
Ideally, this is a team that would come back intact next year and be an odds-on favorite to make the Final Four—they need the experience, conditioning, and added size. Unfortunately, the odds of that happening are slim to none.
INTERIOR DEFENSE IS A PROBLEM
The hope was that an unstoppable offense would cover for Michigan's defensive shortcomings, but when the offense isn't unstoppable, boy do those shortcomings get exposed. Even in the victory over Ohio State, the Wolverines got abused on the interior defensively, and their two-point defense is now dead last in the conference—B1G opponents connect on 48.9% of their twos against Michigan.
The injury to Jordan Morgan, the team's best on-ball interior defender, has hurt, but the problems go much deeper. Mitch McGary is an active defender with a ton of potential on that end, but he's also prone to freshman mistakes and positional errors, like the one that allowed Jared Berggren to drive for an and-one dunk late in the Wisconsin game. Jon Horford isn't at the same level of on-ball defense as Morgan and he fouls far too much—7.7(!) per 40 minutes in conference play.
Then there's Robinson, who's clearly hit a wall and is struggling mightily to defend larger players. He's not big enough to defend a guy like Derrick Nix or Adreian Payne one-on-one, nor does he have the stamina at this point to attempt to do so and still have an impact on the other end of the floor. He's missing switches and has been late getting out to his man on the perimeter—freshman mistakes, and ones that can't be made in critical moments.
Michigan can spell Robinson with Max Bielfeldt for stretches, but Bielfeldt's offensive limitations make that only a stopgap solution—by my charting, in about a game's worth of offensive possessions in conference play with Bielfeldt on the floor, Michigan is scoring just 0.90 points per possession. The Wolverines are going to need Robinson to find a way out of his funk, plain and simple.
BURKE IS STILL THE LONE CREATOR
When the best point guard in the country leaves the court, there's obviously going to be a bit of a dropoff offensively. Michigan's Burke-free offense is downright stagnant, however, because none of the other players can create a shot at the rim off the dribble.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is still too easy to pickpocket when he puts the ball on the floor inside the arc; last night, you could see him overcompensate by trying to shield the ball with his entire body, which led to some ugly twisting layup attempts in traffic. He's much better when he can drive to the free-throw line and pull up, but opponents have learned to take that part of the court away.
Robinson, for all his athleticism, still hasn't proven himself a threat off the dribble. Nik Stauskas could be that guy, especially with his skill in pick-and-roll situations, but the last four games he's been invisible when his outside shot isn't falling. Caris LeVert isn't strong enough to get all the way to the hoop, forcing him to try an array of pull-up jumpers that aren't falling with any consistency.
The pieces all fit together when Burke is on the floor. When he's not, this team is disjointed and surprisingly easy to defend—take away Hardaway's drive to the middle, don't sag off of Stauskas, and let them miss tough shots.
THE SILVER LINING
Even the most optimistic of Wolverine partisans would've been at least grudgingly accepting of a 2-2 record over the last four games, especially with Morgan hobbled. Despite all of the above, Michigan came within a half-court shot of just that. The last four games also don't discount what happened in the first 21; let there be no mistake, this is still a team that can get hot at the right time and win a six-game single-elimination tournament (yes, that one). Is that likely? Well, probably not. Is it within reason? Sure, if the matchups fall their way.
In fact, this team can still grab a share of the Big Ten title. In a conference that is cannibalizing itself, the Wolverines have one of the easier closing slates—including playing Penn State twice in the next three games—before the season finale against Indiana. If Michigan beats the teams they should beat, they may find themselves in control of their own destiny at the very end after all.
Also, this team still has Trey Burke, who still very much deserves his status as a national player of the year contender. He is still a joy to watch, and this is almost certainly the last time he'll be in a Michigan uniform. I, for one, am going to do everything in my power to sit back and enjoy the privilege of seeing him play.
February 13th, 2013 at 6:14 PM ^
It's not easy being young. Horford and Morgan? The former has been mostly injured or on the bench for his whole career and the latter is injured now. Looks like 2553 of 5050 minutes this season have gone to freshmen. Stuff like this happens when freshmen play the majority of your minutes.
You say that everyone plays freshman etc. And yet somehow only 7 of the other 346 Division I teams are younger than us (per kenpom). Not sure how you reconcile the idea that everyone is inexperienced with the basic fact that we are in about the 97th or 98th percentile for experience in the country. The only major conference teams younger than us are:
#91 St. Johns 7-5, 15-9
#95 Texas 2-8, 10-13 overall
#117 Boston College 2-8, 10-13 overall
#187 CSU-Northridge 4-9, 13-12
#290 Dartmouth 6-14
#292 Samford 8-17
#315 Northern Illinois 5-17 (and with a 4 point half!)
Lot of bad basketball from those young teams.
Kentucky is the exception. As soon as we have a roster full of 1st round picks then we can start holding ourselves to exceptional standards.
Nix and Payne? Senior and junior post players.
There's been a lot of haggling about the Fab 5 recently and what their legacy is. As it relates to age, I'll just point out that while everyone remembers the run to the National Championship game in 92, there were a lot of struggles along the way with that young team. They finished 20-8 in the regular season, 11-7 in the Big 10 and were a #6 seed. Different game and different talent. But being young is never easy.
These guys laid an egg yesterday and they have some shortcomings. But this is a top 10 team that still has some chance at the regular season title and a decent chance at making runs in both the B1G and NCAA tourneys.
February 13th, 2013 at 4:50 PM ^
are more given to hysteria than women. Second-guess strategy with facts--no problem. But to just go all HAM on Beilein at 21-4 with the third-youngest team in the country is goofy.
February 13th, 2013 at 5:00 PM ^
...isn't somebody else as playmaker, it's to do what Beilein's been doing for decades: run one of his many continuity sets until it gets someone open.
We've gone away from that during Burke's tenure for the good reason that Burke's really, really hard to defend on a ball screen. But if for any reason that stops working, it should always be there as a backup plan. We ran some shuffle action against Wisconsin but it looked a little rusty to me--I hope in this next run of games it'll get some play, if only to have it ready if necessary in the tournament. This team was recruited with that offense in mind after all--that we found something even better doesn't mean the original Plan A won't work too.
February 13th, 2013 at 6:56 PM ^
That's what we're running when we see McGary popping out to the top of the key to reverse the ball, right? I noticed us running that last night too, and I saw a couple things going on that I think back up your "rusty" comment.
1. When the ball goes to the wing and the opposite wing dives down the lane off the high-pick, we missed at least two cutters open for layups. That's a part of the motion that you've just got to take advantage of if it opens up, as it forces the defense to give additional attention to the cutter, potentially opening up either the point for a straight on 3 or the guy in the opposite corner for a quick ball reversal shot.
2. There was a lot of ball stopping going on. Part of this was due to the fact that neither GRIII or Stauskas is very good this point against heavy ball pressure. GRIII's confidence in particular is just so low, he isn't even looking for the blow-by. But it also looked like they didnt' quite remember what they were supposed to look for, and if the ball is stopping, the motion offense isn't stressing the defense (it's the combo of moving ball and moving players that make it so hard to stop if it's being run well).
I think it's reasonable to wonder whether all the two-man stuff, where those two guys are mostly stationary, has hampered their comfort with the "other" offense. From my experience, running that kind of motion-based offense (I ran flex rather than shuffle, but it's the same idea) is as much muscle memory as film work. Hopefully, the next couple weeks can allow them to get back to some of that.
February 13th, 2013 at 7:35 PM ^
That's the one. It starts with a guard passing to the wing and going to the corner and the off-ball guard cutting off the high post to the ball-side block, then the high post steps to the top of the key and the ball is reversed through him. Here's the whole set:
http://www.campofchamps.com/Chicken_Soop/beilein_offense_shuffle_set.ht…
It's kind of circular, isn't it? As you say, the ball was stopping in part because guys aren't comfortable with heavy ball pressure; but the reason they're getting so much heavy ball pressure is that the ball keeps stopping and the defense has plenty of time to recover and man up.
--
Ed.-Found a flash version of the offense. It's the older Dean Smith version, not Beilein's, so there are some differences, but it's pretty cool especially if you have trouble visualizing a set just from diagrams.
http://www.coachesclipboard.net/Animations/FlashBEShuffle.html
February 13th, 2013 at 9:55 PM ^
It would probably be worth coming out running something like the Dean Smith set against PSU in an effort to get GRIII going. In the way Smith's version of the shuffle works, the guy who initially receives the ball on the wing has options to immediately go up for a shot, drive baseline, or hit the cutter of the high screen. Just run that and tell him to take whatever he finds. It would get him involved early, rather than doing all the corner hanging he does when we run 2-man games.
February 13th, 2013 at 10:21 PM ^
but I'd rather wait until a little later in the shot clock (unless you've got something obvious right away). Let the other guys defend for 15 or 20 seconds and get ragged, get some open shots, let GR3 take his man off the dribble when he's a little out of position and running at him instead of squared up in perfect position.
But I agree about the corner hanging--that's exactly why I would have been running some of this stuff all along. Even if you've decided something else might be better from an efficiency standpoint, you run this sometimes too because it keeps everybody moving and involved.
February 13th, 2013 at 5:48 PM ^
We are going to be so, so bad next year without Burke. We were pretty hapless with him on the court, but the second he left we were completely impotent. We've looked terrible the last...I can't even remember the last time I felt good about this team and wasn't making excuses. On paper we look better than everyone else then we actually play and we look terrible. Every defensive possession the other team gets great, easy looks and easy rebounds. Every offensive possession we put up desperation shots that don't go in. How the hell are we 21-4? I miss the days earlier in the season when the team had me tricked into thinking they were actually good. Sigh, they were so short-lived.
February 13th, 2013 at 6:30 PM ^
February 13th, 2013 at 9:08 PM ^
People were saying the same thing when Darius Morris left. "No way that Burke kid can replace him," etc.
Burke's a great player, but Beilein is an extremely adaptable coach and has had successful teams that didn't even have a point guard. Our current offensive system is built around Burke's talents, so yeah, we sometimes struggle without him. But next year's team will be different.
February 13th, 2013 at 7:56 PM ^
February 13th, 2013 at 6:00 PM ^
February 13th, 2013 at 6:22 PM ^
Like people have pointed out, GRIII is being forced into a very difficult chore on the defensive end. Not only is he playing the 4, often against much bigger guys, he is pretty much the only guy doing it (up until recently he was on the floor nearly as much as Burke and THJ).
Having Evan Smotrycz still on this team would have been very valuable. He had the offensive ability that Bielfeldt and others can't provide, including an outside shot to stretch defenses. At worst he would have allowed GRIII to play more reasonable minutes and at best he adds a bigger presence on D/glass with an offensive threat. Its a shame that Robinson is facing the same difficulties that Smotrycz faced a year ago (when he was often forced to line up at the 5). The two of them together, combined with our newfound depth at the 5 would have been a nice luxury to have.
February 13th, 2013 at 6:36 PM ^
How awesome would we be if we had someone like a Nix. Does Beilein's system ever incorporate a big back-to-the-basket center? I've never seen it on any of his Michigan teams, but I don't know about his teams prior to that.
February 13th, 2013 at 7:00 PM ^
I've never seen a Beilein team with a back-to-the-basket player, and none of the many sets he's published ever have one. They get in the way of everything else he's trying to do. He had some big players at West Virginia but they were either mobile or were good shooters, or both. His offenses require everyone to be able to function everywhere; his most successful players have been those that didn't quite fit into a traditional mold, so they created mismatches when they pulled a defender to a spot he wasn't comfortable defending.
February 13th, 2013 at 7:23 PM ^
Jordan Morgan isn't super tall, but he's a low-post guy. Ben Cronin was certainly recruited to fill a low-post role.
February 13th, 2013 at 9:54 PM ^
February 14th, 2013 at 10:24 AM ^
I think a big back-to-the-basket player on a Beilein team would have to be at a talent level Michigan hasn't had a chance at recruiting until recently. He would have to be someone who could score facing the basket as well, and someone fairly quick.
I would love it if Michigan had a guy like Nix late in games to slow it down, make high percentage shots and draw fouls, but he would be out of sync with the team for most of the game if that's all he could do.
February 13th, 2013 at 6:50 PM ^
Michigan's losses are on the road to tough teams. It took a gift from the basketball gods for Wiscy to beat them. Both Sparty and Ohio State hate their guts and always play their best possible game at home against the Wolverines. Assembly Hall is a tough place to play, too.
The freshmen can grow from this experience; I'm not writing this season off as a disappointment yet. At the beginning of the season, I would have been happy if I had been told the Wolverines would be 21-4 with their only losses on the road in places where it is really difficult to win.
Consequently, I am still happy with this team so far. Stauskas and GRIII need to recover from the freshman wall, and adjust to the adjustments that have been made to stop them.
Nothing is ever guaranteed, but at least we can reasonably infer that the freshmen now know how much intensity it is going to take to win games in the NCAA Tournament. This team sorta peaked early, but the toughest 4-game stretch in college basketball has cooled them down a bit. I think they are going to peak again just in time for the Tournament.
February 13th, 2013 at 6:59 PM ^
February 13th, 2013 at 7:24 PM ^
PSU is 0-11 in league play. I don't think they're exactly comparable to Wisconsin (who is 8-3).
February 13th, 2013 at 9:52 PM ^
February 13th, 2013 at 7:08 PM ^
By the way this will be the best-seeded team Beilein has ever coached bar none with last year's Michigan team being the previous best. His two West Virginia teams were a 6 and 7 seed respectively and his Richmond/Canisius teams were in the 13-14 range.
It's also going to be the highest seeded team since Ellerbe's 1998 squad which got a 3 seed after finishing 4th in the Big 10 during the regular season and then won the conference tournament.
We won the Big 10 Regular Season title last year (first since 85-86).
We're on pace for the best 3 year streak since the Fab Five (as far as quality of teams and seeding is concerned)
February 13th, 2013 at 8:00 PM ^
February 13th, 2013 at 8:05 PM ^
...stop that and let me panic!
February 13th, 2013 at 8:46 PM ^
also, this acc broadcasting team, with a female color announcer, us so superior to the crap we get in the B1G it's unbelievable.
February 13th, 2013 at 9:43 PM ^
that they can get hot and win the tourney. This is the best conference by far and Indiana is still the only team that may have more talent. The Fab Five team struggled their freshman year at OSU and Indiana and they made it to the championship game. And the conference that year was almost as good as this year's edition. Young teams hit the skid at times and this was a brutal stretch for any team. Three road games in four, and three of the opponents were top 10 teams. You don't get that type of schedule unless you're deep in the NCAA tourney.
Let the team catch a breather and regroup against some lesser competition and let's see what happens in a couple weeks.
February 13th, 2013 at 9:46 PM ^
February 14th, 2013 at 9:18 AM ^
It also includes a psychological component that in many instances is more critical than the simple measurements of height, weight, strength, and jumping ability. Some kids have it, and some don't. Some kids have that innate psychological strength, but it needs to be brought out to the surface and used; other kids simply don't have the mental makeup to truly succeed at the collegiate level, regardless of their physical measurements.
Trey very obviously does have that innate mental toughness and together with his physical skills, it makes him a truly talented and elite player.
February 14th, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^
Personally, I found myself relieved after reading Ace's analysis. I believe that Beilein is a good enough coach to help these freshman work through their mistakes, especially against non-top-10 opponents. Besides Indiana, they shouldn't see this level of competition until the Elite 8.
If teams have caught up to a few of our "one trick ponies", then I sure hope Beilein can coach them into being more well rounded players.
Go Blue!
February 14th, 2013 at 11:10 AM ^
Our offense is a juggernaut and unstoppable?
February 14th, 2013 at 11:35 AM ^
I liked it better when most of you guys didn't give a shit about basketball.
All the new-found interest seems to come from the "not tough enough"/"unacceptable" crowd.
February 14th, 2013 at 11:39 AM ^
Don't forget the "No heart" people. They're the best. And they've been declaring that about every Michigan basketball team since this blog existed (yes, even last year's Novak/Douglas grit-fest had no heart, according to them).
February 14th, 2013 at 11:41 AM ^
Well, when we have front-page posts declaring that the hockey team doesn't try, it can become a case of monkey-see, monkey-do.
February 14th, 2013 at 1:21 PM ^
Claims that members of the basketball team, in particular, have "no heart" go back far, far longer than this season, though. If you dug up open threads from any of the last four seasons, I think you'd find them, so it has to have some other source.
February 14th, 2013 at 1:28 PM ^
Probably just that lots of sports fans are assholes.
February 14th, 2013 at 11:54 AM ^
am sorry for this question, as i dont know the answer...
what determines the big ten champion? the regular season record, or the winner of the big ten tournament ?
February 14th, 2013 at 11:58 AM ^
Teams hang banners for both.
Generally one is termed "Regular Season Champion" and the other "Tournament Champion".
February 14th, 2013 at 12:00 PM ^
Ok, but which is considered the more prominent title of the two?
February 14th, 2013 at 12:27 PM ^
I can't speak for the world - I don't make much of a distinction. I guess I'd generally put more stock in the regular season.
February 14th, 2013 at 3:58 PM ^
Definitely the regular season. The winner of that is the "Big Ten Champion" whereas the winner of the BTT is just the "Big Ten Tournament Champion."
February 14th, 2013 at 4:11 PM ^
I think in areas that have had a tourney for a long time, like ACC country, they put the Tournament at a higher level.
The Big Ten just adding it much later as a money grab, I think it's more towards the regular season.
Personally I'm with the previous two; I think the long haul of the regular season shows more than a weekend tournament. Lucky draws, teams upset, and it can be pretty easy to win the BTT. But then people put more value on the NCAA Tournament than any of that, and it's the same thing. I'd take either. Or both.
February 14th, 2013 at 12:05 PM ^
I am not much of a basketball analyst, but from what I have seen, Michigan has an elite back court but a woefully subpar front court. Any team with even a decent inside presence gives Michigan difficulty on either side of the floor.
When the opposition sends the ball inside, it's almost an assured basket, or offensive rebound/put back. Conversely, on the rare occasions where Michigan sends the ball inside, they miss close in shots, get out rebounded, and blocked with alarming regularity.
Early in the season, it seemed that Morgan and GRIII had enough of an inside presence -- epecially on the boards, to make Michigan very difficult to beat. Well, Morgan is out, and GRIII has lost his swagger.
As to GRIII, I think the first OSU game really did a number on his psyche. He struggled to get shots and the shots that he got were off. Add to that the intimidating environment, getting schooled repeatedly by OSU offensive, and out muscled, and he seems to have gone into a shell.
Much like having a one-dimensional offense in football, a great back court cannot carry a team without an inside presence.
Again, I am no basketball guru, but it seems to me that teams have figured out if you harrass Burke and THJ, there is nobody else that will pick up the slack.
February 14th, 2013 at 8:33 PM ^
While we're a young team, we're older than where we were when we were ranked #1 in the country a couple weeks ago.
GRIII and Nick Stauskas came into AA with great skills and have not really played that great in the big ten. They are great talents. No doubt about it.
If TB is shut down, I see surprisingly little offensive inginuity. Hardaway canning 5 straight 3's in the 2nd half was not any coaching inovation. That was THJr being THJr.
That being said, we stunk, but it's college basketball. The most forgiving of all sports for the regular season.
This game had no impact on our chances of winning the NC.
Take it for what it's worth: We stunk. Our players and our coaches. And it had no impact on our NC chances.
Next!
Comments